There’s been only the routine Essential Research result to feed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which has the two-party preferred vote effectively unchanged, although a recent drop in the Greens primary vote seems to have worked its way out of the system. The Coalition gains one on the seat projection thanks to a nudge in its favour in the marginal seat-heavy state of Queensland. Essential Research has provided its monthly leadership ratings, and while the shifts since the previous Essential leadership results a month ago were large, they had already been priced in by the aggregates, so the only change worth mentioning is a further narrowing in Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred prime minister rating.
Before we proceed to preselection news: do take advantage of the discounted Crikey subscriptions offer you can read all about at the post above this one.
Now on with the action:
• The Tasmanian Liberal Party determined the order of its Senate ticket in the event of a double dissolution on Saturday, and it dropped a bombshell in relegating the only Tasmanian MP of ministerial rank, Richard Colbeck, from his number one position at the 2013 election to loseable number five. Colbeck is the only Tasmanian Liberal who is so much as suspected of having voted for Malcolm Turnbull in the September leadership challenge, and he subsequently won promotion to the junior ministry as Tourism and International Education Minister, which partly compensated Tasmania for Eric Abetz’s dumping from cabinet. The top two positions on the ticket are occupied by Abetz and the Senate President, Stephen Parry, who will also be one and two in the event of a half-Senate election, as they were in 2010. In third position is Jonathon Duniam, 32-year-old deputy chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman and a former staffer to Abetz, to whom he is said to be close ideologically. Number four is David Bushby, who was behind Colbeck on the ticket at the 2013 election, and is best known for having miaowed at Labor’s Penny Wong during a committee hearing. Behind Colbeck in sixth place is Break O’Day councillor John Tucker, who completes an all-male ticket to match the Tasmanian Liberals’ all-male complement of three members of the House of Representatives.
• Queensland’s Liberal National Party conducted preselections on the weekend to choose successors to Warren Truss in Wide Bay and Ian MacFarlane in Groom. The first of these was won by Llew O’Brien, a police officer, ahead of Damien Massingham, chief executive of Tourism Noosa, and Tim Langmead, director of external relations at Fortescue Metals. O’Brien had been endorsed by Truss and reportedly won on the first round, despite a finding from 2014 that he had inappropriately accessed police information on two LNP preselection candidates (although no adverse finding was made). Massingham had backing from Attorney-General George Brandis, while Langmead boasted endorsement from a Western Australian contingent including Matthias Cormann and his boss, Andrew Forrest. Former state Opposition Leader Jeff Seeney initially declared his interest in the seat, but decided not to run.
• The Groom preselection was won by John McVeigh, who has held the state seat of Toowoomba South since 2012 and served as Agriculture Minister through the period of the Newman government. McVeigh is the son of Tom McVeigh, who held Groom and its predecessor electorate of Darling Downs for the Nationals from 1972 to 1988. McVeigh reportedly won the local party ballot by a margin of around 40 votes over David van Gend, a prominent social conservative and founder of the Australian Marriage Forum. McVeigh had been endorsed by Ian MacFarlane, while van Gend’s backers included former Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson, Senator Joanna Lindgren and former Senator Ron Boswell. The result will necessitate a state by-election in Toowoomba South, to be initiated when McVeigh resigns from state parliament, which he says he will do when the federal election is called.
• The South Coast Register reports Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis is under serious preselection pressure in her southern New South Wales seat of Gilmore, having put noses out of joint locally by publicising her opposition to the Baird government’s council amalgamation plans. But while Sudmalis still faces a local ballot to ratify her preselection, she has to this point had nobody nominate against her. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Sudmalis is likely to be safe due to the proximity of the election, and the fact that Gareth Ward and Andrew Constance, who respectively hold the state seats of Kiama and Bega, want her in place for another term so they can succeed her in 2019.
• Victorian state upper house MP and former Fremantle Dockers AFL coach Damian Drum has been preselected unopposed to represent the Nationals in Murray, where Liberal member Sharman Stone is retiring in a seat she won from the Nationals in 1996.
• Ahead of Saturday’s Mackellar preselection, Sarah Martin of The Australian reports Alex Hawke’s Centre Right faction is continuing to support Bronwyn Bishop, as there is “no alternative suitable candidate”. This is despite the urgings of Treasurer Scott Morrison, purportedly on behalf of “the leadership team”, despite the Prime Minister’s insistence that he staying above the fray. The view seems to be that a win for Bishop is “assured” if she can get backing from moderates on state executive, which apparently might happen for some reason, and that she will at least be competitive even if they don’t, thanks to her local numbers. However, the vote will be determined by a secret ballot, so a lot of inside sources could end up being surprised. Meanwhile, businessman Dick Smith, who threatens to run as an independent if Bishop wins, has run newspaper advertisements warning of a threat to the Mackellar way of life if preselectors fail to choose wisely. I’d be interested to know if media advertising to influence a preselection vote is an Australian first.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that Hollie Hughes, who contentiously won top spot on the ticket in the New South Wales Liberal Party’s preselection for a half-Senate election, is likely to drop all the way to the all-but-unwinnable sixth place in the event of a double dissolution. This is because two of the higher positions are reserved for the Nationals, and the Liberal Senators who faced election in 2013 include two of cabinet rank, in Defence Minister Marise Payne and Cabinet Secretary Arthur Sinodinos.
[ABC 24 is doing a report on the Australian impact of the Peabody Coal Mine bankruptcy. Impact could be thousands of jobs]
Lets hope the greens have the capital ready to give them all jobs in renewables.
WWP
\
Or indeed Labor. Greens and Labor in same policy place on this. The only difference is in timeline of how fast coal industry will collapse.
This bankruptcy seems to indicate more the Green timeline than the Labor one.
psyclaw
I have no idea as to what the waffler is thinking. Someone posited last night on the blog (c@t?) that he doesnt seem to have his heart in winning next election
[ The “theory” ignores the fact that the tax rate has no effect on labour productivity, which is a measure of output per unit input. ]
yep.
Business use ‘productivity’ to describe profit continually because they are not challenged on it.
If they had to justify and substantiate use of ‘productivity’ the debate would quickly change and thats not what they want.
Increase in ‘productivity’ in the majority of cases comes from new technology but to many employer groups including the BCA use it to attack what they regard as ‘lazy’ workers.
Interesting now we are in the run up to the election – the BCA has gone quiet.
William
I don’t know if you are aware.
REID PRESELECTION NOMINATION AND VOTING PROCEDURE
Nominations are called for a rank-and-file preselection for the Federal electorate of Reid.
Nominations open: 5pm, Monday 11 April 2016
Nominations close: 5pm, Monday 18 April 2016
Local Credentialing: Saturday 23 April 2016
Challenges Close: 12 noon, Wednesday 27 April 2016
Ballot (if necessary): Saturday 30 April 2016
Leaving the preselection so late will make it that much harder for Labor to unseat Craig Laundy. The “sophomore effect” in Reid is at least 2% IMHO. Labor even with a high profile candidate would require a swing in the order of 5.4%. This would have been doable had a preselection occurred 6 months ago when local branches requested this. During this period Laundy has been campaigning strongly. His vulnerability in the western part of the electorate around Auburn has been somewhat diminished by his promotion as Assistant Minister for Multicultural Affairs. Other factors in his favour are as a confidante of MT, he can get the PM to campaign frequently in Reid. Further, as one of the richest MPs he will always substantially out spend Labor.
I believe Laundy will hold Reid.
Regarding Ms Cash and assuming there is a strategy in place to use her influence, we can pose the question as to what demographic in the electorate she appeals to.
I very much doubt that it would include swinging voters, so her high meeja profile can only be a plus for Labor.
WWP
[Lets hope the greens have the capital ready to give them all jobs in renewables.]
A pointless argument, because the green side of politics, specifically Greenpeace, have been the only group to have predicted the rapid rise in solar. The International Energy Agency has been out in predictions by more than an order of magnitude.
[.. only Greenpeace successfully predicted the growth of solar over the past decade. The IEA, over the past 15 years, has increased its solar forecasts 14-fold, but is still short of the BNEF target by a factor of more than three. ]
If Labor and the Coalition had been better at predicting renewable energy trends, then maybe they would have the capital ready.
In fact they don’t even need the capital -the capital will come if we simply shut down the coal generators which have no social license to operate and pay no tax on their pollution.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/why-rise-of-solar-and-fall-in-costs-still-shocks-energy-experts-85878
Regarding the Telstra ME backdown.
Their decision looks worst today. Ringo Starr and Sharon Stone are the latest to join in boycott of North Carolina over so called religious freedom bill.
The problem for Telstra here is simple. Human rights trumps belief in a fictional skygod. Yes you have that right to a belief as long as that is kept out of the secular state and out of trying to enforce your religious views on others.
When you use your clout as a religion to influence secular society you are setting up the conditions to become a religious dictatorship making us no better than Iran.
Telstra should not have caved in. Even more important the Catholic Church should not be using its economic power to bully others into following their belief. Let the belief stand or fall on its merits. Bullying like this is dangerous.
guytaur
What would be your opinion if Telstra advertised themselves as against SSM as a banner headline on products/Internet etc. Should they have the freedom to do that?
Just released.
[TELSTRA’S SUPPORT OF MARRIAGE EQUALITY
TELSTRA NEWS 14 MINS AGO • BY ANDREW PENN
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Following yesterday’s marriage equality debate around Telstra, I want to be clear about Telstra’s perspective as our long track record in diversity and inclusion was generally overlooked.
We clearly need to make this simple statement: Telstra supports marriage equality as part of the great importance we place on diversity and standing against all forms of discrimination.
Equally we recognise there are many and varied views and if we are all truly accepting of diversity, there should be room made for all of them.
While Telstra continues to support Australian Marriage Equality and has not changed that position, we have made a decision not to publicly participate in the debate further. This is because the proposed plebiscite process gives everyone an opportunity to contribute and out of respect, it is important we allow them to voice their own views.
However, this position was interpreted by some as us abandoning our tradition of supporting diversity and inclusion, be it in the community or in our workplace. This could not be further from the truth.
Andy]
http://exchange.telstra.com.au/2016/04/14/telstras-support-marriage-equality/
Why Telstra did not say this yesterday I do not know. It would have saved them a lot of bad PR.
A reasonable position for any corporation to take.
guytaur
As often happens, the right hand doesnt know what the left hand is doing
That Bornstein story highlights the fact that, in the pursuit of the ‘sexy’ story, our media gave unquestioning support to the illogical idiocy served up by Abbott both in opposition and in govt.
The championing of a ‘star-power’ politician, whose policies NEVER stood up to scrutiny, has now come home to roost on the shoulders of our media.
Dave:
[Increase in ‘productivity’ in the majority of cases comes from new technology but to many employer groups including the BCA use it to attack what they regard as ‘lazy’ workers.]
At least blaming lazy workers is within the scope of labour productivity even if it’s pure arseclownery. It’s when business advocate groups (eg. BCA, LNP) confuse labour costs with productivity measures that the alarm bells start to ring. In this case, conflating corporate tax rates with labour productivity measures is even one further step removed from reality.
I’m also in Reid.
I don’t know much about the candidates for preselection, but I do know one has a Korean wife, and there is a big Korean population in my part of Reid. Culturally, Koreans tend to favour each other … as I have found when trying to shop here.
I know of Laundy, and he is not respected by many here.
pretty
The Catholic Church has their beliefs. I think religious exemption from discrimination law should not exist. We don’t for racism.
However that is more acceptable than the Church using its economic power to attempt to blackmail a corporation into supporting its belief.
To me that oversteps the line. It shows everything that is wrong with religion when it comes to gays. They think their belief is more important than the rights of others let alone that of others to have different beliefs.
Telstra was doing nothing to block the Church from communicating their case in public. Telstra has been providing the services it is paid to do.
I have problems with corporations joining social movements as that can reinforce discrimination when that is the majority view.
However I have more of a problem with religions no matter of what Skygod they belief in trying to dictate and bully secular organisations upholding the rights of a minority that the majority of the public supports.
That latter is a rare thing in history.
Bill Shorten presser now.
It was obvious that Fran was/is a Lib fanbot.
Likes
Tweets
Sky News Australia
15m15 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm live now in Shanghai announcing a multi-million dollar AFL deal between Australia & China (@liztilley84)
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Sky News Australia
18m18 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Oppn leader @billshortenmp live shortly announcing a six point plan for Australia’s steel manufacturing industry #auspol (@liztilley84)
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Sky News Australia
31m31 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Labor is set to announce a plan to ‘secure Australia’s metal manufacturing industry’ #auspol
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/04/14/labor-plan-to–secure-metal-manufacturing-.html …
Embedded image
LaborHerald: .@billshortenmp is live announcing a 6 point plan for Australia’s metals manufacturing industry. Read more: https://t.co/P9OdgcdMV5 #auspol
LaborHerald: “A Labor Govt led by myself will do everything we can to make sure that we keep making steel in Australia.” @billshortenmp #auspol
BevanShields: Marriage equality campaigners had this farewell cake delivered to Joe Bullock #auspol via @DebbyVilensky https://t.co/Seqfj8dM4u
cpyne: I’m Australia’s Steel Advocate – that’s the job of the Industry Minister. Labor wants to downgrade that role to a public servant #auspol
Shorten and Carr are doing a very good job with this presser about the steel industry. Plenty of genuine passion and no waffle.
[cpyne: I’m Australia’s Steel Advocate – that’s the job of the Industry Minister. Labor wants to downgrade that role to a public servant #auspol]
So, Pyne is taking personal responsibility for the disaster in Whyalla.
BK
Carr in particular was quite passionate in his delivery!
[Paul Barry
52m52 minutes ago
Paul Barry @TheRealPBarry
#60MinsThe hunt is on at Ch9. ‘Heads are expected to roll,’ says @australian http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/broadcast/nine-network-seeking-scalps-in-60-minutes-lebanon-saga/news-story/c6de0eb18fa0da9c8c075edf184374e2 …]
Michaela Cash is grabbing the limelight because she’s got bigger balls than Malcolm and nobody can stop her – end of!
[‘Heads are expected to roll,’ ]
Not the best choice of words.
I really get the impression that the knuckle-heads at Channel 9 thought that, if anything went wrong, they would just say “Hey, we’re Australian journalists” and everything would be forgiven. Unbelievable arrogance. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if they do time in a Lebanese Gaol – which, I’m sure, would be no holiday camp.
TPOF
[So, Pyne is taking personal responsibility for the disaster in Whyalla.]
No, it’s not that. Pyne’s taking personal responsibility should something positive happen. Aside from that, he’s not touching Whyalla with a barge pole.
[Victoria will go it alone on the $5.5 billion Western Distributor project, with no funding from the Turnbull government.
Premier Daniel Andrews has revealed this month’s state budget will set aside $1.46 billion over four years to complete the project, which will connect the West Gate freeway to Citylink.
“Although it is unheard of for the commonwealth government not to invest in a project of such national significance, the Labor Government is providing certainty to the community by allocating the $1.46 billion required over the forward estimates,” Mr Andrews said. ]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-to-go-it-alone-on-55-billion-western-distributor-project-20160414-go5zoy.html
victorians should do their best to ensure that Turnbull and Co get booted out at election. They are a complete waste of space
[Victoria will go it alone on the $5.5 billion Western Distributor project, with no funding from the Turnbull government.
Premier Daniel Andrews has revealed this month’s state budget will set aside $1.46 billion over four years to complete the project, which will connect the West Gate freeway to Citylink.
“Although it is unheard of for the commonwealth government not to invest in a project of such national significance, the Labor Government is providing certainty to the community by allocating the $1.46 billion required over the forward estimates,” Mr Andrews said.]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-to-go-it-alone-on-55-billion-western-distributor-project-20160414-go5zoy.html?&utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn:twi-14omn0023-optim-nnn:nonpaid-27062014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-age-o&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_twitter
lizzie
Snaparoo!
victoria
I’m surprised that one of us didn’t get a ‘posting too quickly’ message.
It must be traumatic for the families of the Channel 9 people. You’d be out of your mind worrying about them.
Some of them might have children, frightening for them.
lizzie
Too true. 🙂
prettyone
It would have been traumatic for the two women from whom the kids were snatched as well. However, I suppose they’re foreigners so it doesn’t really matter.
[http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/04/turnbulls-government-has-degenerated-into-a-circus/
As such, the Turnbull Government has no discernible narrative that outlines both the national challenge and the solution, and it has a leader popular for intellect, policy savvy and ideological centrism instead spouting populist fear-mongering, policy vandalism and Right wing garbage. Against his own benchmark of considered process and no “captain’s calls” Turnbull appears ridiculous and he is reliant increasingly on whacky, isolated and transparent PR clap trap as his only re-election strategy.
This goes way beyond bad advice, ideological confusion or the difficulties of governing in a down cycle. This is simple ineptitude and it goes straight to the top.]
There it is. Turnbot’s is the worst government since the previous one, the Abbott government. Two of the worst ever, a pair. Let’s hope Australia does not make it three in a row.
[http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/04/moodys-warns-aaa-rating-needs-tax-hikes/]
The rating agencies are not happy…recommend voting Labor
[http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/04/ipa-head-knocks-self-out-in-tax-debate/]
IPA defames its opponents, defiles itself.
Raaraa
[And it appears they have taken away the powers of the religious police to arrest people. Really odd.]
It looks like they’re afraid of the Iranians.
What it means eludes me.
Will they stop funding the nutters? I guess the Egyptians want that.
What does it mean for Iraq and Syria? Will things in Yemen be sorted?
The Chinese must be laughing their heads off: first Abbott, now Turnbull.
[It must be traumatic for the families of the Channel 9 people. You’d be out of your mind worrying about them.
Some of them might have children, frightening for them.]
That’s what you get for thinking kidnapping from wogs, in a wog country isn’t really kidnapping.
This story had all the ingredients didn’t it? Muslimy-sounding names, a dysfunctional state, a beautiful Australian mother, international soldiers of fortune, the corrupt Middle East, daring escapes (oops!) and a TV news show full of arrogance without the relevance to back it up: the perfect cultural clash, mannah from heaven for Western Sydney to eat off the floor till the last crumb was licked up.
Reversing the situation – a bunch of swarthies in, say, Rooty Hill, abducting a couple of tots using violent assault on a public street, and then spiriting them away to an undisclosed location in the Middle East – complete with TV crew thinking they’re on a scoop (when they actually seem to have financed the whole thing), and we’d have had the shock-jocks and RWNJs dancing for joy at the “terrorism” potential of it all.
“This is what they do, these people. They have no respect for our laws and custody orders,” would bellow George Brandis.
Bolt would be apoplectic. Piers would be beside himself with rage. The thunder from Hadley would be heard in Melbourne.
The reporters, crew and producers shold have through about their families worried sick before they embarked on this idiotic scheme to garner ratings. They are NOT “just going to work”. They set out to break the laws of another country and it looks like they will be paying bigtime for it.
[84
prettyone
It must be traumatic for the families of the Channel 9 people. You’d be out of your mind worrying about them.
Some of them might have children, frightening for them.]
It’s possible that Channel 9 have broken Australian laws as well. There are provisions in the Crimes Act relating to human trafficking – especially procuring the trafficking of children – that have extra-territorial application. In any case, the intended abduction will have been planned in this country.
This raises the question of whether Channel 9 executives and/or directors may be charged under Australian law. Perhaps Peter Costello, the Chair of Channel 9’s Board, will be given an exemplary sentence as a deterrent to others who may be planning to break Australian anti-trafficking laws.
People smuggling a serious matter, as we all know.
[http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/04/moodys-warns-aaa-rating-needs-tax-hikes/]
If a downgrade does happen, it would be a consequence of the incompetence of the Turnbull/Morrison govt.
Nonetheless, the benefits of a credit downgrade may outweigh the cost. The AU$ is too strong, and Oz governments are too terrified to borrow $$. So in the current political climate there is very little upside to Aaa. (Apart from bragging rights.)
It’s possible that Channel 9 have broken Australian laws as well.
—————-
Briefly
If Channel 9 are guilty of this, perhaps the CEO should resign, whoever he/she is, even enough to jeopardise media licence? EArly days to know the scope of what they were involved in, though.
When my blue-rinse affluent north-shore mother-in-law, who once said she loved Malcolm, says he’s been a disappointment YOU KNOW HE’S BEEN A DISAPPOINTMENT.
Strong UnionsStrongCountry @ 8
I am very glad that Pell will be on show again!
Dan Gulberry @ 37
[The big question is this. I’m about to step outside, so should I wear a hard hat in case the sky falls down now that Barnaby Joyce is Prime Minister?]
Of more concern would be the flying pigs !
Victoria @ 32
I too dont get this truckie stuff
It’s called CASH
[It must be traumatic for the families of the Channel 9 people. You’d be out of your mind worrying about them.
Some of them might have children, frightening for them.]
I’m actually with prettyone here. We are well aware of the impropriety of waltzing into Lebanon and trying to grab kids off the street, and hurting a 60 year old woman on the way. But I don’t think that remembering that the worries and fears of the Australian families of those involved, is somehow arrogant white people thinking superiority and wanting a free ride. They are just ordinary people. Who knows? Maybe a spouse out there is not a white anglo-saxon?
Indeed, I have quoted the whole of prettyone’s post above and ask the question of whether some people exercised their own prejudices in reading more into it than reasonable, based on his/her political stance.