There’s been only the routine Essential Research result to feed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which has the two-party preferred vote effectively unchanged, although a recent drop in the Greens primary vote seems to have worked its way out of the system. The Coalition gains one on the seat projection thanks to a nudge in its favour in the marginal seat-heavy state of Queensland. Essential Research has provided its monthly leadership ratings, and while the shifts since the previous Essential leadership results a month ago were large, they had already been priced in by the aggregates, so the only change worth mentioning is a further narrowing in Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred prime minister rating.
Before we proceed to preselection news: do take advantage of the discounted Crikey subscriptions offer you can read all about at the post above this one.
Now on with the action:
• The Tasmanian Liberal Party determined the order of its Senate ticket in the event of a double dissolution on Saturday, and it dropped a bombshell in relegating the only Tasmanian MP of ministerial rank, Richard Colbeck, from his number one position at the 2013 election to loseable number five. Colbeck is the only Tasmanian Liberal who is so much as suspected of having voted for Malcolm Turnbull in the September leadership challenge, and he subsequently won promotion to the junior ministry as Tourism and International Education Minister, which partly compensated Tasmania for Eric Abetz’s dumping from cabinet. The top two positions on the ticket are occupied by Abetz and the Senate President, Stephen Parry, who will also be one and two in the event of a half-Senate election, as they were in 2010. In third position is Jonathon Duniam, 32-year-old deputy chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman and a former staffer to Abetz, to whom he is said to be close ideologically. Number four is David Bushby, who was behind Colbeck on the ticket at the 2013 election, and is best known for having miaowed at Labor’s Penny Wong during a committee hearing. Behind Colbeck in sixth place is Break O’Day councillor John Tucker, who completes an all-male ticket to match the Tasmanian Liberals’ all-male complement of three members of the House of Representatives.
• Queensland’s Liberal National Party conducted preselections on the weekend to choose successors to Warren Truss in Wide Bay and Ian MacFarlane in Groom. The first of these was won by Llew O’Brien, a police officer, ahead of Damien Massingham, chief executive of Tourism Noosa, and Tim Langmead, director of external relations at Fortescue Metals. O’Brien had been endorsed by Truss and reportedly won on the first round, despite a finding from 2014 that he had inappropriately accessed police information on two LNP preselection candidates (although no adverse finding was made). Massingham had backing from Attorney-General George Brandis, while Langmead boasted endorsement from a Western Australian contingent including Matthias Cormann and his boss, Andrew Forrest. Former state Opposition Leader Jeff Seeney initially declared his interest in the seat, but decided not to run.
• The Groom preselection was won by John McVeigh, who has held the state seat of Toowoomba South since 2012 and served as Agriculture Minister through the period of the Newman government. McVeigh is the son of Tom McVeigh, who held Groom and its predecessor electorate of Darling Downs for the Nationals from 1972 to 1988. McVeigh reportedly won the local party ballot by a margin of around 40 votes over David van Gend, a prominent social conservative and founder of the Australian Marriage Forum. McVeigh had been endorsed by Ian MacFarlane, while van Gend’s backers included former Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson, Senator Joanna Lindgren and former Senator Ron Boswell. The result will necessitate a state by-election in Toowoomba South, to be initiated when McVeigh resigns from state parliament, which he says he will do when the federal election is called.
• The South Coast Register reports Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis is under serious preselection pressure in her southern New South Wales seat of Gilmore, having put noses out of joint locally by publicising her opposition to the Baird government’s council amalgamation plans. But while Sudmalis still faces a local ballot to ratify her preselection, she has to this point had nobody nominate against her. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Sudmalis is likely to be safe due to the proximity of the election, and the fact that Gareth Ward and Andrew Constance, who respectively hold the state seats of Kiama and Bega, want her in place for another term so they can succeed her in 2019.
• Victorian state upper house MP and former Fremantle Dockers AFL coach Damian Drum has been preselected unopposed to represent the Nationals in Murray, where Liberal member Sharman Stone is retiring in a seat she won from the Nationals in 1996.
• Ahead of Saturday’s Mackellar preselection, Sarah Martin of The Australian reports Alex Hawke’s Centre Right faction is continuing to support Bronwyn Bishop, as there is “no alternative suitable candidate”. This is despite the urgings of Treasurer Scott Morrison, purportedly on behalf of “the leadership team”, despite the Prime Minister’s insistence that he staying above the fray. The view seems to be that a win for Bishop is “assured” if she can get backing from moderates on state executive, which apparently might happen for some reason, and that she will at least be competitive even if they don’t, thanks to her local numbers. However, the vote will be determined by a secret ballot, so a lot of inside sources could end up being surprised. Meanwhile, businessman Dick Smith, who threatens to run as an independent if Bishop wins, has run newspaper advertisements warning of a threat to the Mackellar way of life if preselectors fail to choose wisely. I’d be interested to know if media advertising to influence a preselection vote is an Australian first.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that Hollie Hughes, who contentiously won top spot on the ticket in the New South Wales Liberal Party’s preselection for a half-Senate election, is likely to drop all the way to the all-but-unwinnable sixth place in the event of a double dissolution. This is because two of the higher positions are reserved for the Nationals, and the Liberal Senators who faced election in 2013 include two of cabinet rank, in Defence Minister Marise Payne and Cabinet Secretary Arthur Sinodinos.
Lizzie @ 709
Thanks for posting that… a very good read.
[ CTar1
Posted Friday, April 15, 2016 at 5:26 pm | Permalink
phoexix
to front up to Parliament next week wearing his Pickelhaube and fall out of the gallery
I could wear a Chicken Suite.
]
Even I can tell the difference between Chicken Shit and Chicken Salad …………just land on that useless bag of PollyWaffle that supposedly runs this country and blow all his hot air and pixiedust bullshit to bits ….and let’s get someone to actually run this country for the good of ITS PEOPLE instead of being there to prop up his rich mates and Cayman Island investments as its main objective for being PM ….
Ben Raue on party election logos:
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/15/australian-election-logos-from-admirable-clarity-to-unintelligible-blobs
[The logos displayed on Senate ballot papers at this year’s election may be crucial for minor parties, but some are much better than others]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-15/linc-energy-goes-into-voluntary-administration/7331154
[It comes one month after the company was committed to stand trial on five charges relating to breaches in Queensland’s environmental laws at its underground coal gasification site.
The state’s environment department has accused the company of wilfully causing serious harm at its trial site near Chinchilla on the Darling Downs.]
Kelly O’Dwyer dismisses a royal commission into the banks suggesting ATSIC’s have the powers to investigate these matters.
“A major bank will help foot the bill for a glitzy pre-election political fundraiser to be fronted by Treasurer Scott Morrison and his deputy Kelly O’Dwyer at the same time as they are resisting calls for a royal commission into the scandal-plagued banking sector.
The $1200 to $2500-a-table breakfast, scheduled for 10 days after Mr Morrison delivers his first budget, will be held under the banner of co-sponsor National Australia Bank.
NAB is one of two corporate sponsors for the May 13 event organised by the Higgins 200 Club, a fundraising body that supports Ms O’Dwyer, the federal member for Higgins.”
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fundraiser-for-assistant-treasurer-kelly-odwyer-to-be-sponsored-by-nab-amid-banking-firestorm-20160415-go7c4y.html
C@t
[ You can keep the Pickelhaube. ]
I’ve put in in the toilet.
[Kelly O’Dwyer dismisses a royal commission into the banks suggesting ATSIC’s have the powers to investigate these matters.]
Probably as effective as ASIC.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-15/renegade-rob-johnson-retires-from-wa-liberal-party/7329486
[After years of public feuding with the WA Premier, outspoken Hillarys MP Rob Johnson has resigned from the Liberal Party, declaring he is not prepared to be one of the crew onboard “Barnett’s Titanic”.
Mr Johnson will sit as an independent Liberal until the next state election.
The Hillarys MP, who was first elected to Parliament in 1993, said he could no longer support the Government and a Premier whom he does not respect.]
I meant ASICS, sorry typo.
[ CTar1
Posted Friday, April 15, 2016 at 5:46 pm | Permalink
C@t
You can keep the Pickelhaube.
I’ve put in in the toilet.
]
…. just be careful then where you sit !!!!!!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-15/mining-companies-avoiding-cleanup-costs-say-lawyers/7329716
[Mining companies in Queensland are using legal loopholes to delay or minimise their rehabilitation obligations, environmental lawyers say.
David Barnden from not-for-profit law firm Environmental Justice Australia (EJA) said the costs, sometimes amounting to billions of dollars, must then be covered by governments.
“In Queensland, there are about 15,000 abandoned mines and the extent of the problem is just enormous,” Mr Barnden said.
A new report from EJA’s climate and finance program outlines six ways coal mining companies can avoid or minimise their rehabilitation costs.]
By the way, if we assume we’re already at the limit of our global carbon budget and we’re going to roughly divide that by region.
Then the West probably need to shave 1/3 off their current emissions, China and India around 3/4, SE Asia need to stay about level, while Africa and South America could grow theirs ~3x.
Bemused
Thats right axiomatic or obviously true!
It is obviously true that the current trajectory of the West, meets the criteria outlined and is sustainable and the current trajectory of the rest of the world is unsustainable!
But policy prescriptions and efforts do not and are not addressing this!
The answer is not allowing unchecked population growth and increasing emissions in the developing world but putting in place controls and incentives and technological transfers to ensure they choose a different method of development than that taken by the West and at the same time get their population growth under control.
The consequences of that not happening are catastrophic.
Excluding immigration, with birthrates below replacement the consequences of Australia’s 26 million continuing to drive around in gas powered vehicles or use coal fired power stations is not.
(BTW I am not irritated by the later, absolutely why not try to help things along as much as we can AND set a good example – but I am irritated in people not paying enough attention or taking any actions to ameliorate the chosen pathways of the developing world which will result in catastrophe).
The relative sizes and the signs are more relevant than the absolute numbers :P.
DisplayName
Yes!
http://greens.org.au/after-coal
[A significant structural shift is underway in our economy. Global demand for coal is in terminal decline and with it, thousands of jobs and a debilitating clean-up bill for cash-strapped State governments. It is our responsibility to have a plan to look after these workers and our land.
The hardest hit from this global energy transition will be the coal workers as coal companies go bankrupt or leave Australia and return to their headquarters. The next hardest hit will be State governments who are financially exposed to sudden closures with only a fraction of mine rehabilitation costs secured.]
L G H@763
So is anyone disputing the points you are struggling to make and instead sowing the seeds of confusion?
11 March 2016: http://greens.org.au/news/qld/greens-call-senate-inquiry-rehabilitation-secure-jobs-peabody-crumbles-and-majors-exit-0
[The Australian Greens are calling for a Senate inquiry on mining and resources rehabilitation to secure jobs in affected communities…
“Last week I wrote to the Government, Labor and Senate cross-benchers proposing a Senate inquiry to investigate that failure, and the job opportunities from adequate rehabilitation.
“Next week I will be seeking their support in a vote in the Senate.
“State and Territory governments have failed time and time again to secure adequate rehabilitation bonds.]
Whew. The male panellist on the drum said that 2100 is such a long time away that we don’t need to worry about climate change and should get on with dealing with ‘more important’ issues.
Such a relief.
ReachTEL poll imminently on Seven “predicts hung parliament”, apparently.
ReachTel predicting a “hung parliament” according to 7news headlines (numbers not yet mentioned – 50-50?).
LGH @ 763
[The answer is not allowing … increasing emissions in the developing world]
@765
[Yes!]
Leaving out “unchecked growth” because that’s obviously bad.
This is the part I don’t agree with. Even if Africa can’t escape managing various things (population, whatever), I don’t agree we can lump different regions of the developing world together as easily as you do.
If we are going to argue about a fair carbon budget. Then some regions are way over it and need to reduce their emissions. Some are in the middle. Others are way under it and, to be fair, some growth in emissions should be accommodated.
Assuming everyone is doing their bit, there should be no problem accommodating those countries/regions.
[770
William Bowe
ReachTEL poll imminently on Seven “predicts hung parliament”, apparently.]
Excellent….Labor chipping away at the LNP, day by day, on the path to winning 95 seats on July 2.
zoomster
That was Nick – Cave is it?
There was an interesting discussion earlier about the reasons that there are fewer women MPs in the Libs. Simple – they don’t join the party. In particular, Young Libs are predominantly male.
Seems logical.
Or, if we think those regions should be capping their emissions at current levels, then that shifts every number I had above. China and India need to drop their emissions by 90%. The West by 50%. SE Asia by 20%. Or something like that.
That would be fair and justify requiring Africa + South America maintain their emissions at current levels.
ReachTel 50-50
Better PM 58-42
New thread.
DisplayName @772
But that is why I said regional (sub national) allowances are so important.
That reflects the massively different environmental and population requirements facing Africa (unchecked emissions and unchecked population growth but room to grow total emissions) vs China (checked population growth vs emission levels way beyond their natural (e.g. regional) allowance).
China is arguing for increased emissions based on past responsibility of the West and per capita population.
The problem is the first as we discussed is (maybe already) but at least going to be untrue in the not too distant future and the with the second will result in catastrophic world wide consequences and if held to be true for all nations provides no incentive to manage population growth which is also a significant climate change factor.
Re Queensland Nickel
Little discussion so far re clean up costs for tailings. Will be massive.
[
Maybe we can talk CTar1 …. seeing he is in Canberra …. to front up to Parliament next week wearing his Pickelhaube and fall out of the gallery and land on the PollyWaffle Malware TurnBull BLIMP and prick/explode all the hot air and bullshit out of THE DUD we have as PM ????
]
Jeeze you guys… just think of how much that would add to our carbon emissions.
[ The USA has 75 submarines, China 68. Not a huge difference in numbers. ]
Qualitative differences are huge. The only real advantage China MAY have is restricted to the South China Sea and is based on seabed sensors. However, it is widely thought that the USA has been quietly sowing these in the region for years and is aware of much of what the Chinese have got. The combat life of a Chinese submarine is likely to be exciting and very short.
And no, I am not an ASIO spook.
But you would also say that if you were one.
And no, I am not an ASIO spook.
But you would also say that if you were one.
In the Michigan primary exit poll Bernie Sanders won the votes of 48% of voters on incomes of less than $30k; 54% of voters on incomes between $30k and $50k; 50% of voters on incomes between $50k and $100k; and 48% of voters on incomes between $100k and $200k. The claim that Bernie Sanders is running a boutique campaign that appeals chiefly to high income earners is completely incorrect. Exit polls from other primaries bear this out. Race and age are the demographic variables that differ appreciably between the two candidates’ voters. Not income level.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/Dem
Is this comment in the new thread, or in the older one? This is very confusing.
I haven’t been on here for ages, and all I can do is quote my favourite cartoon, published just after Entebbe. It’s completely black with just a word bubble saying “what de hell been going on here?”.
Is it planned to put PB behind the paywall? I know there’s meant to be a special page for discussion, but when I click on the link I get a 404 – page not found. Is this supposed to be an improvement?