BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition

The Turnbull government has resumed its downward trajectory in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after this week’s remarkable result from Newspoll.

After a few weeks where it appeared the trend to Labor had tapered off, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid nudge to Labor this week on the back a Newspoll result crediting it with a 51-49 lead. BludgerTrack doesn’t go quite so far, but it does have the Coalition losing a full point off the primary vote since last week. This translates into a surprisingly mild net gain of one for Labor on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania being balanced by losses in Queensland and the Northern Territory – the latter being the result of a methodological tweak (I continue to have very limited faith in my Northern Territory projections one way or the other). Newspoll also provided a new set of data for the leadership ratings, which have maintained their existing trajectories – headlong downward in Malcolm Turnbull’s case, and steadily upwards in Bill Shorten’s.

Two further items of polling floating around in the past few days:

• The Australian has a second tranche of results from Newspoll, relating to the Liberal leadership. The poll finds 57% believe the Liberals were right to depose Tony Abbott, down five since October, with still only 31% opposed, up four. A question on preferred Liberal leader found Malcolm Turnbull leading on 35%, Julie Bishop on 22%, Tony Abbott on 14% and Scott Morrison on 8%. This suggests only modest change since an Essential Research poll in mid-March which had Malcolm Turnbull on 39% (down from 42% in December), Julie Bishop (down one) on 13% and Tony Abbott on 9% (steady), along with high “someone else” and “don’t know” components. Roy Morgan got a very different and much stronger result for Turnbull in October, presumably because respondents were asked who they would favour if they were Liberal or Nationals voters.

• A poll conducted by Research Now by the progressive Australia Institute think tank found 63.4% of 1412 respondents felt Tony Abbott should retire, compared with only 26.3% who preferred that he remain.

Much preselection news to report this week, largely thanks to the Western Australian Liberals, who have conducted a number of important preselection ballots, results of which remain to be confirmed by the party’s state council this weekend:

• The Liberal member for the Perth seat of Tangney, Dennis Jensen, suffered a resounding preselection defeat on the weekend at the hands of the party’s former state director, Ben Morton. Morton’s winning margin in the ballot of local party delegates was 57 to seven. This was the third time Jensen had lost a local preselection vote in a parliamentary career going back to 2004, earlier results having been reversed by the intervention of John Howard in 2007 and the party’s state executive in 2010. Jensen concedes he is unlikely to appeal this time, which would surely be futile given the scale of the defeat and the enthusiasm for Morton among the party hierarchy. Jensen has claimed to be a victim of “dirty tricks” from the Morton camp after news reports emerged last week concerning a novel he had written containing a graphic sex scene, which he says was designed to damage his standing in the eyes of religious conservatives. He has also launched defamation proceedings against The Australian over a report on Friday that he had moved out of the family home to live with his girlfriend at a property located outside the electorate.

• A second WA Liberal preselection on the weekend, for the new Perth seat of Burt, was won by Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor and staffer for two state MPs prominent in the southern suburban “Christian Right” – upper house member Nick Goiran and Southern River MP Peter Abetz, who is the brother of Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz. Storer’s win came at the expense of Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme. Another preselection vote for the Perth electorate was won by employment consultant Jeremy Quinn over a field that included Darryl Moore, the candidate from 2013; Leona Gu, a property developer and real estate agent; and Trudi Lang, who has recently had roles in France and Switzerland with the OECD and World Economic Forum.

• Liberal MP Nola Marino has seen off a preselection challenge in her seat of Forrest, which covers south-western Western Australia. Marino ultimately enjoyed a 51-16 winning margin over Ben Small, a Bunbury businessman who had “worked in commercial shipping and as a property developer”. Small had the support of Marino’s precedessor, Geoff Prosser, and there were suggestions he was serious threat. However, The West Australian also reported this week that the party’s state council would be “under pressure to rescue Mrs Marino” if Small carried the day.

• The ABC reports there are four candidates for the Liberal preselection to replace Sharman Stone in the regional Victorian seat of Murray: Duncan McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu; Emma Bradbury, Campaspe Shire councillor and chief executive of the Murray Darling Association; Camillus O’Kane, an urban planner; and Andrew Bragg, policy director at the Financial Services Council and an unsuccessful candidate in the Victorian Liberals’ recent Senate preselection.

• Ninety-six preselectors will vote in the Liberals’ Mackellar preselection next weekend, drawn equally from local branches and head office. Contentiously, the former contingent includes four of Bronwyn Bishop’s own staff members. Heath Aston of Fairfax hears Bronwyn Bishop and Jason Falinski are approaching 40 votes each, with 10 to 15 backers of Walter Villatora set to decide it for Falinski on the second round.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,635 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition”

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  1. [With all respect in my opinion the excuses you proffer for the ABC’s conduct are every bit as bad as is they were just plain biased.]

    None of those excuses, true as they may be in themselves, explain the consistently different treatment that ABC interviewers give to Labor and coalition interviewees.

  2. adrian@201

    With all respect in my opinion the excuses you proffer for the ABC’s conduct are every bit as bad as is they were just plain biased.


    None of those excuses, true as they may be in themselves, explain the consistently different treatment that ABC interviewers give to Labor and coalition interviewees.

    Try the persistent and very loud screeching from the right.

  3. [in biking gear, with one doing his chimpanzee walk]

    I have Stop Tony Meow on my laptop, so the only images I get are of cute kitties 😀

  4. Bemused @ 200

    I know we will never agree on this so I won’t bother going on about it but to say I do not think what you are saying in anyway excuses their conduct.

    If the highly paid and influential journalists and reporters at the ABC cave in so easily to accusations of left wing bias by the shrill nuts from the right who obviously just want to see an end to public broadcasting then I suggest they give up their privileged and persuasive positions and find another job.

    You say laziness, incompetence, stupidity and being intimidated by the right wing.

    I say all of the above plus a core group of partisan liberal cheerleaders masquerading as journalists and a heavily stacked, conservative agenda driven board and management.

    Either way the ABC is not performing to the standard it should and must so there clearly is a problem that needs addressing.

  5. Colton@204

    Bemused @ 200

    I say all of the above plus a core group of partisan liberal cheerleaders masquerading as journalists and a heavily stacked, conservative agenda driven board and management.

    Either way the ABC is not performing to the standard it should and must so there clearly is a problem that needs addressing.

    I believe surveys have consistently shown that the majority of people in the media lean to the left in their attitudes. If that is not reflected in media output then it reflects the efforts made to hide personal opinions and a response to external pressures.

    The other issue is quality and that could certainly be improved by better guidelines and a requirement that they be adhered to. Same applies to the rest of the MSM.

  6. There are two maladies, I’ve noticed – and I’m probably repeating myself – that political commentators suffer from. One is a narrative bias. The other is policy blindness – when reporting on (something as) a political move, there is no discussion of the merits (or otherwise) of that move’s basis in policy.

    There is a kind of synergy between the two that sees Labor hit by a negative double whammy, while allowing the Coalition to get away with rubbish.

    The current popular narrative has the ALP as a political machine, but the Coalition as a party of conviction. So Labor actions with a sound policy basis are immediately treated as a political play and the policy ignored.

    On the other hand, the party that pulls stupid political stunts based on bad policy – and let’s be honest, one party owns pretty much this entire space, no points for guessing which – has their effort judged on how pretty the stunt was.

  7. @David

    That 7.30 report was a piece about Victoria’s election prospects, covered Greens efforts among other things. Be weird if Grayndler was mentioned in a piece about Victoria.

    @Bemused
    Labor does not own seats, nor does anyone else. That entitlement attitude is not attractive to voters, something I hope Labor are beginning to learn – and something the Greens must never forget.

  8. [I say all of the above plus a core group of partisan liberal cheerleaders masquerading as journalists and a heavily stacked, conservative agenda driven board and management.

    Either way the ABC is not performing to the standard it should and must so there clearly is a problem that needs addressing.]

    So true – there is just no excuse for the lack of courage or professionalism of a lot of these so called journalists. For heaven’s sake, I know someone like Michael Brissenden might actually have to do a bit of research, but regurgitating coalition talking points and calling it an interview, is simply not good enough.

  9. More reasons , this time from Antony Green, why we may not see a DD after all : http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/04/the-turnbull-governments-senate-position-would-be-little-better-after-a-double-dissolution.html

    Always found it hard to understand why the Libs would go to a DD in a situation where it cost them the gains made from the poor ALP & Green Senate performances in 2013. The falling polls just compound the problem.

    Whatever some of the xbench may say, Turnbull has reason to give ’em some more carrots. I reckon they’ll find it hard to resist them, too.

  10. PhoenixGreen@209



    @Bemused
    Labor does not own seats, nor does anyone else. That entitlement attitude is not attractive to voters, something I hope Labor are beginning to learn – and something the Greens must never forget.

    Trying to be cute eh?
    Labor ‘holds’ seats as does the coalition.
    Now, which ones do the Greens mainly target? Why ALP seats of course.

    QED.

  11. Nappin #184

    Of course Abbott isn’t a Labor plant. He’s the head of a Trotskyite sleeper cell, founded at St Johns College, Sydney, with Joe Hockey an eager follower.

    These heroic (if deluded) men dedicated decades of their lives, from their student days onward, to working under deep cover to smash the bosses’ party in Australia and undermine the Australian State itself.

    Brandis established another cell at UQ soon after (his “SC” awarded by mates seven years after he finished practising a brilliant move to both give him cover and discredit bourgeois legal forms)

    Hockey bailed out because he could no longer bear his young family thinking he was the reactionary tool his self imposed role made him appear. Abbott, made of sterner stuff/a more completely unhinged fanatic follower of Lev Davidovich, fights on …

    Think about all those Cambridge coms, you know it makes sense.

    One side note: Abbott’s extravagant and barely credible misogyny is the only “tribute” a man in his position was able to pay to Rosa Luxemburg. His appearance in front of the “ditch the witch” sign is rich in meaning given that (as he well knew)the foes of his socialist feminist heroine had not even given her body the dignity of burial in a ditch but tossed her in a canal.

  12. Crikey has more commentary on Jonathan Holmes and left-wing bis in the ABC. I can’t copy it all, but this was Faine’s response.

    [Faine, one of those mentioned by Holmes in his piece, dismissed the criticism of his former colleague. “Jonathan’s views are Jonathan’s views”, he is quoted as having said in a ABC Friends release. Faine added that the ABC “bend(s) over backwards to make sure there are all sorts of voices heard”.

    “We were putting some time into Tim Wilson being a fill-in host, so to say that we don’t do those things is demonstrably not true.”

    Faine dismissed the notion that politics had any effect on how he did his job. “I’ve got to think of the toughest questions I can of every guest — that’s my job and that’s what the audience expects of me,” he said.

    Faine’s comments are broadly in line with how ABC executives answer questions of bias. As Mark Scott recently told Media Watch:
    “We don’t do that kind of journalism. We don’t ask questions about our journalists’ voting pattern and where their ideology are. We look at the journalism that they put to air.”]

  13. Can anyone in the seats of Batman and Wills or even closer to the ground in Victoria or NSW give me some indication of whether those seats are actually in any danger of being lost to the greens or is it just overblown speculation by commentators mixed with unrealistic hopes by the greens?

    I can only speak of my experience in Fremantle where every election we hear about the impending greens victory which is always followed by another lacklustre result at the election despite the amount of resources spent and importance the greens place on winning the seat.

    There is often talk of the greens winning Fremantle but in my opinion having lived and worked in the area the chances of the greens winning Fremantle in for the foreseeable future are pretty much zilch.

  14. Colton

    I’m not in Batman or Wills – I’m in Higgins. The Greens do seem to be making a serious attempt at Higgins – but it looks like a long-shot to me.

    Higgins covers the state seat of Prahran, which the Greens won, and so isn’t a crazy play. However, and without checking the boundaries closely, Higgins is State Seat Prahran plus some areas of the suburbs of Malvern, Toorak and Armadale. Those are series money leafy suburbs… Not the younger hippster types that are more prevalent in Prahran (and seat of Melbourne, to be fair).

  15. “That 7.30 report was a piece about Victoria’s election prospects, covered Greens efforts among other things. Be weird if Grayndler was mentioned in a piece about Victoria.”

    Not it wasn’t, the 7:30 report which Anthony Green commented on was about the federal election in general.

    The piece that I linked too was about Victoria.

  16. MM

    I’d be very careful about discussing this sort of thing, even behind an avatar. Those guys will stop at nothing.

  17. Bill Shorten on Australian steel – posted 2pm on GG

    [Bill Shorten has outlined his plans to protect the nation’s steel industry, revealing a Labor government would compel federal, state and local government agencies to buy Australian steel.

    As prime minister, Mr Shorten would also overhaul Australia’s steel grading standards, more aggressively enforce anti-dumping rules and consider co-investing with steel producers.

    Accusing the Coalition of having failed the industry, the Opposition Leader warned any country that abandoned domestic steel production would lose “economic firepower”.

    “Governments at all levels — council, state and federal government — spend a lot on infrastructure. What is wrong with requiring Australian content in the steel?” he said in Brisbane.

    IMore: We’re set to help Whyalla: Pyne
    IMore: Arrium’s ‘horror’ outcome
    IMore: Scramble on to save Arrium jobs

    Mr Shorten warned that Australia’s anti-dumping laws were being abused, with steel coming in via third world countries to unfairly compete with Australian steelworkers.

    He proposed improving Australia’s standards by which it assesses the grades of steel used in construction, thereby favouring domestic manufacturers, and suggested government co-invest with industry to keep the nation’s steelworkers in jobs.

    “I for one haven’t swallowed the right-wing economic textbook and simply pretended there is no role for government to help with co-operative investment. I believe that there are solutions available to keep the whole business going,” Mr Shorten said.

    “I’ve represented steel workers for the best part of 20 years. I understand that a nation that doesn’t make its own steel losses a lot of its economic fire power.”]

  18. Rates Analyst,

    Thanks. It is always interesting to learn more about a seat I have no idea about such as Higgins.
    Even I would like to see a Green win that seat if only to remove the odious Kelly O’Dwyer.

  19. Trog – thanks for your concern. Yes that had gone through my mind (like an icepick, of course that was Stalin’s specialty but Trotsky was no fluffy bunny either)

  20. [Labor ‘holds’ seats as does the coalition.
    Now, which ones do the Greens mainly target? Why ALP seats of course.]
    Political parties only hold seats because the electors vote for them. If the electors vote to elect a Greens MP over a Labor MP they’ve done it because that’s their right. If you’re so upset about Greens winning seats, why not try and pass a law that says the ALP and the LNP can be the only two parties in the country? Otherwise, try harder to persuade voters who are swinging Green.

  21. Colton – I too would be happy just to see Kelly O’Dwyer beaten but Labor has an excellent candidate in Higgins. Carl Katter is prominent both in Rainbow Labor and in labor’s environment action network.

  22. Has this been linked before? I know it has been mentioned.

    http://www.goulburnpost.com.au/story/3833273/guilty-dui-plea-for-news-corp-journalist/?cs=181
    [“It was an appalling piece of driving,” Magistrate Pearce said. “You are facing a jail sentence.

    “You were on the wrong side of the road and there was a police pursuit.”

    Magistrate Pearce ordered a presentence report to “look at alternatives to a jail sentence,” but added: “It is a very serious matter, make no mistake.”

    Maiden’s case has been adjourned to reappear in Goulburn Local Court on May 18.]

  23. But do we care?

    [Political Alert ‏@political_alert · 1m1 minute ago

    Federal Treasurer @ScottMorrisonMP will be interviewed on Sky News today at 4pm #auspol]

  24. president of the solipsist society@225

    Labor ‘holds’ seats as does the coalition.
    Now, which ones do the Greens mainly target? Why ALP seats of course.


    Political parties only hold seats because the electors vote for them. If the electors vote to elect a Greens MP over a Labor MP they’ve done it because that’s their right. If you’re so upset about Greens winning seats, why not try and pass a law that says the ALP and the LNP can be the only two parties in the country? Otherwise, try harder to persuade voters who are swinging Green.

    Spot the difference.

    Labor tries to win seats off the Coalition.

    Greens try to win seats off Labor.

  25. MM @ 226

    Thanks for that. I am aware of Carl Katter but I had no idea that he was the ALP candidate for that seat.
    Well stuff the greens in Higgins, Go Labor.

  26. Colton – no worries.

    I actually did go and check the boundaries. Higgins goes even further east out through East Malvern and into Ashburton than I realised. These days that’s rich housewife territory and solidly “liberal”. Though more of the old-school Liberal party than the current liberals-cum-tories.

    I would like to be free of O’Dwyer too…. Don’t like my chances though.

  27. I didn’t know Katter was running. The Greens candidate is Jason Ball – the gay footballer who made a bit of a splash a few years ago.

    Woweee. Two candidates I actually like to vote for at once! God bless preferential voting… Makes a change after all those anyone-but-Costello votes I’ve cast.

  28. Bemused @ 229

    You hit on my main complaint against the greens.
    Yes yes I know they are perfectly entitled to try and win any seat they wish. That’s politics.

    I do note however that the seats they try hardest to win such as Grayndler, Sydney, Batman, Wills, Fremantle etc all seem to have one thing in common.
    They are all currently and traditionally Labor held seats.

    That is fair enough but the greens should not be surprised when the ALP fight back and fight back hard.

  29. [Labor tries to win seats off the Coalition.

    Greens try to win seats off Labor.]
    Coalition voters are more likely to swing to Labor.

    Labor voters are more likely to swing to the Greens.

    If you don’t like it then be more persuasive but quit your incessant whinging.

  30. re TheGreens in V ic
    ____________
    They have won state seats like Melbourne and Prahran, and Melb in the Fed House ,and 5 upper Hours seats too as well as two senators…so they are force to be recorded with in Vic…and in my opinion this comes from many disenchanted Labor voters…like me..with a life of activity in the Labor movement(unions/ALP).

    ..in my case I vowed NEVER to give my primary vote to Labor after the ALP prefs elected Fielding from Family fFrst to the senate in 2004.with dire effects // ,when they could have elected a GREEN SENATOR…bad politics indeed..as Rudd later found
    The Greens are also doing well;l among progressive/leftist professional…note their big vote in some Liberals seast like Kew and Hawthorn last state elections

    …so that has been my case for a decade…and there are too many in the ALP ..and in the House who are just DLPers in disguise/// like that awful Labor Senator in WA who recently resigned over Gay Marriage

    He’s one who looked to the disgraced Catholic church for advice on matters like Euthanasia and Gay marriage …that disgraced and shameful Church notorious for Child Abuse we we all know…I am a lapsed Catholic and a victim in my childhood of the brutal so-called Christian Bros ..so spare me accusations of sectarianism

    In Wills the ALP has chosen a factional hack…overlooking better candidates//and this will help the Greens I think to win…and the Libs are finally seeing that from their point of view…that they can use their prefs to take Labor seats away…so I guess the Greens may well win Wills but not Batman .
    If the Libs had done this at the recent State elections they could have given seats too the Greens are Andrews might now lead a minority Govt depending on the Greens for office

    In the inner city as in Sydney the young..as well .as.. older ex-Labor voters like me ..the Greens are doing well know among the young ….,as all polls show..I have two young adult grand=children who will vote Green this time for the first time
    …but yes Wills ia real Chance for them …but not Batman

  31. TT 186
    “”Shows how bloody hard it is to knock off a first-term government, however incompetent it may be.””

    The public won’t give crap governments the same leeway they used to, Campbell Newman found that out!.

  32. [I do note however that the seats they try hardest to win such as Grayndler, Sydney, Batman, Wills, Fremantle etc all seem to have one thing in common.
    They are all currently and traditionally Labor held seats.]
    You know what else they have in common? A high Green vote.

    Should the Greens just run dead in the seats where constituents try to vote for them? I think that would be thoroughly undemocratic.

  33. [Can anyone in the seats of Batman and Wills or even closer to the ground in Victoria or NSW give me some indication of whether those seats are actually in any danger of being lost to the greens or is it just overblown speculation by commentators mixed with unrealistic hopes by the greens?]

    It’s probably hype

    if the libs preference labor ahead of the greens, then the greens have no show. if the libs preference the greens, then labor could be in trouble in batman, particularly if a strong independent runs and preferences the greens also. Feeny is not well loved and Alex Bhathal is very impressive and is a perennial Greens candidate at state and federal levels.

    I’d be surprised if the libs preference the greens – they’d rather a right wing creep and malignant faceless man like Feeny survived – he’s much more like the libs than he is to the greens or even plibersek. Also, in an election where a strong swing to labor can be expected (Feeny had a 10% primary vote swing away from him last time and still ended up with TPP of 57%) it’s hard to see the Greens winning this.

    Green have NO chance of winning Wills even with the retirement of Kelvin Thompson. Labor could go close to cracking 50% of the primary vote there.

    I think the real questions is whether Bandt holds his seat. I suspect he will, but it’s no certainty at all – if the libs preference labor than he’s probably in trouble/gone. he’s been a thorn in the libs side on many issues in the lower house, so I think they’d be happy to see he him gone. Labor doesn’t ask questions about UN condemnation of our treatment of refugees or children in detention, or push for wide ranging anti-corruption legislation.

  34. president of the solipsist society@234

    Labor tries to win seats off the Coalition.

    Greens try to win seats off Labor.


    Coalition voters are more likely to swing to Labor.

    Labor voters are more likely to swing to the Greens.

    If you don’t like it then be more persuasive but quit your incessant whinging.

    The whinging comes from the Greens when people like me rightly tag them as enemies of Labor.

    Suck it up sunshine.

  35. Bluey Bulletin 18 Day 18 of the 103 Longest Days of Our Lives

    Bluey reckons that one thing competent governments can do during election periods is abuse the power of incumbency by shovelling tax money at targeted seats. Turnbull seems to be as hapless with this as with everything he touches. A month ago he stitched up deal with Arrium. Now Arrium is in voluntary bankruptcy. Carr gets to steal Turnbull’s wind on this one.

    GILLARD FUD
    The Coalition is back to doing what it does best: attack dog FUD. Attacks based on residual Gillard messes resonate. Bluey reckons that Gillard was a paragon of organisation and productivity compared with the Abbott/Turnbull rabbles.

    HEX ON HECS
    The VET and student loans stuff is messy and expensive. Privatising VET turns out just like everything that gets privatised: the spivs move in and the clients get suckered coming and going. The HECs stuff is so messy that the Coalition is going to use it as camouflage for its $100,000 degrees. They are also going to use it for cover to reduce the threshold. They have resiled from the HECS DEATH TAX idea. They have sort of resiled from Gonski. Shambles. So they have irritated public school parents. They have irritated HECs holders. They have irritated all those people who pay tax so that the Government will give their kids a university education. Still, the IPA should be happy.

    MOTHER TRUCKERS
    Bluey has yet to work out what is really going on but if owner drivers have to pay themselves a minimum wage Bluey reckons that it is a crock policy. Bluey has yet to see actual figures on what the minimum truckies wage is supposed to be.

    MESSY MESSAGING
    Nash reckons that money is important for education.
    Lord Pollywaffle of the Caymans goes off IPA message with Greed is Bad. Bluey reckons that whole chooksheds full of Liberal shonk chooks are coming home to roost.

    HEAVY WEATHER
    Bluey reckons that Dr Marshall’s habit of contemptuous laughter was not very useful to his cred in the Senate Committee today. Bluey reckons that Hunt is working on a secret plan to get BOM to buy the CSIRO climate monitoring bits.

    POLLING
    Bluey reckons that the leadership polls pretty well demonstrate that no-one much likes any of the Liberal leaders. Bluey reckons that the Liberals can not give Turnbull the chop because after Turnbull the cupboard is bare. Parlous stuff.

    SHORTEN
    PvO reckons that Shorten is buying better suits, has lost weight and has taken up running to get fit. Bluey notes that Shorten is still well behind Turnbull on the numbers. But as any banker would tell you, the trend is your friend. Talking about bankers, Shorten is waving around the prospect of a Royal Commission into the Malcolm Turnbulls. Bluey has written to Shorten offering to do the TOR.

    DRIES ROT
    Whyalla to be shut down. Bluey reckons stand by for $100 roasts. Three years ago the IPA Dries in the Cabinet were all for shutting down the ship building industry and the car industry. Now these same hucksters are looking at ways of saving their arses vis-à-vis Arrium and the subs build.

    ABBOTT!
    Stealing a bit of oxygen from Turnbull, Abbott reckons he would not have done the states income tax thing cos he was doing proper process by way of the White Paper that Turnbull chucked in the bin. Abbott trailed his Cabinet coat He is open to offers of serving in a Turnbull Cabinet thus ensuring that he continues to puss up Turnbull’s political wounds.

    HELLO SAILOR
    Bluey reckons that one of the things you don’t do when negotiating a multi-billion dollar deal is to hand time pressure to your opponents This is exactly what the Coalition is doing with the subs contract. Today Payne put Pyne back in his box on the timing. Payne used the term ‘probity’ which would confuse Prissy no end.

    RICHO – NOW A LESSER MORTAL
    Richo has had his bowel, bladder, prostrate, rectum and sciatic nerve removed yesterday morning. Bluey reckons don’t even think about it. Bluey reckons that the surgeons were going to remove Richo’s spine but could not find it.

    DD OR NOT DD?
    Bluey notes that there is increasing uncertainty about the DD. Bluey reckons any uncertainty is bad for MT.

    BLACK SWAN EVENT
    Construction contracting significantly.

    Verdict for the day: Labor
    Cumulative: Labor 14 Liberal 4.

  36. I expect that a Greens win is only possible in electorates where the Libs are so unpopular that they end up third! It follows that these will be either “working class”, or “young and disillusioned”

  37. [The whinging comes from the Greens when people like me rightly tag them as enemies of Labor.

    Suck it up sunshine.]
    If you want to tag Greens voters as enemies of Labor that’s your loss. The vast majority of them are former Labor voters and direct their preferences to Labor.

    But you won’t try and win them back, you’ll just keep bleating on like you always do.

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