BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition

The Turnbull government has resumed its downward trajectory in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after this week’s remarkable result from Newspoll.

After a few weeks where it appeared the trend to Labor had tapered off, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid nudge to Labor this week on the back a Newspoll result crediting it with a 51-49 lead. BludgerTrack doesn’t go quite so far, but it does have the Coalition losing a full point off the primary vote since last week. This translates into a surprisingly mild net gain of one for Labor on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania being balanced by losses in Queensland and the Northern Territory – the latter being the result of a methodological tweak (I continue to have very limited faith in my Northern Territory projections one way or the other). Newspoll also provided a new set of data for the leadership ratings, which have maintained their existing trajectories – headlong downward in Malcolm Turnbull’s case, and steadily upwards in Bill Shorten’s.

Two further items of polling floating around in the past few days:

• The Australian has a second tranche of results from Newspoll, relating to the Liberal leadership. The poll finds 57% believe the Liberals were right to depose Tony Abbott, down five since October, with still only 31% opposed, up four. A question on preferred Liberal leader found Malcolm Turnbull leading on 35%, Julie Bishop on 22%, Tony Abbott on 14% and Scott Morrison on 8%. This suggests only modest change since an Essential Research poll in mid-March which had Malcolm Turnbull on 39% (down from 42% in December), Julie Bishop (down one) on 13% and Tony Abbott on 9% (steady), along with high “someone else” and “don’t know” components. Roy Morgan got a very different and much stronger result for Turnbull in October, presumably because respondents were asked who they would favour if they were Liberal or Nationals voters.

• A poll conducted by Research Now by the progressive Australia Institute think tank found 63.4% of 1412 respondents felt Tony Abbott should retire, compared with only 26.3% who preferred that he remain.

Much preselection news to report this week, largely thanks to the Western Australian Liberals, who have conducted a number of important preselection ballots, results of which remain to be confirmed by the party’s state council this weekend:

• The Liberal member for the Perth seat of Tangney, Dennis Jensen, suffered a resounding preselection defeat on the weekend at the hands of the party’s former state director, Ben Morton. Morton’s winning margin in the ballot of local party delegates was 57 to seven. This was the third time Jensen had lost a local preselection vote in a parliamentary career going back to 2004, earlier results having been reversed by the intervention of John Howard in 2007 and the party’s state executive in 2010. Jensen concedes he is unlikely to appeal this time, which would surely be futile given the scale of the defeat and the enthusiasm for Morton among the party hierarchy. Jensen has claimed to be a victim of “dirty tricks” from the Morton camp after news reports emerged last week concerning a novel he had written containing a graphic sex scene, which he says was designed to damage his standing in the eyes of religious conservatives. He has also launched defamation proceedings against The Australian over a report on Friday that he had moved out of the family home to live with his girlfriend at a property located outside the electorate.

• A second WA Liberal preselection on the weekend, for the new Perth seat of Burt, was won by Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor and staffer for two state MPs prominent in the southern suburban “Christian Right” – upper house member Nick Goiran and Southern River MP Peter Abetz, who is the brother of Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz. Storer’s win came at the expense of Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme. Another preselection vote for the Perth electorate was won by employment consultant Jeremy Quinn over a field that included Darryl Moore, the candidate from 2013; Leona Gu, a property developer and real estate agent; and Trudi Lang, who has recently had roles in France and Switzerland with the OECD and World Economic Forum.

• Liberal MP Nola Marino has seen off a preselection challenge in her seat of Forrest, which covers south-western Western Australia. Marino ultimately enjoyed a 51-16 winning margin over Ben Small, a Bunbury businessman who had “worked in commercial shipping and as a property developer”. Small had the support of Marino’s precedessor, Geoff Prosser, and there were suggestions he was serious threat. However, The West Australian also reported this week that the party’s state council would be “under pressure to rescue Mrs Marino” if Small carried the day.

• The ABC reports there are four candidates for the Liberal preselection to replace Sharman Stone in the regional Victorian seat of Murray: Duncan McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu; Emma Bradbury, Campaspe Shire councillor and chief executive of the Murray Darling Association; Camillus O’Kane, an urban planner; and Andrew Bragg, policy director at the Financial Services Council and an unsuccessful candidate in the Victorian Liberals’ recent Senate preselection.

• Ninety-six preselectors will vote in the Liberals’ Mackellar preselection next weekend, drawn equally from local branches and head office. Contentiously, the former contingent includes four of Bronwyn Bishop’s own staff members. Heath Aston of Fairfax hears Bronwyn Bishop and Jason Falinski are approaching 40 votes each, with 10 to 15 backers of Walter Villatora set to decide it for Falinski on the second round.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,635 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition”

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  3. Note the denial

    CFMEU national secretary Michael O’Connor denied his union had any connection to the offer.

    So of course more smear from the conservatives. The dirty tricks are coming out now.

  4. Zoomster

    Thanks – but who else is in Carr’s faction – agaon serious question.

    Gott go out so may take a while to respond.

    BB

    Not a bad summary

    My only reservation about having friends on opposities sides is that you need to triple your OWN efforts toward intellectual rigor and solid understanding of your own values and the things needed to maintain them.

    This can be a hard ask. However if you get it wrong it is easy to lose your way.

  5. Bushfire @ 148

    Agree with all that. The other point I would note (and one I’ve harped on a bit) is that in the way Labor have gone about building policies and introducing them to the public, and the way that the various shadow Ministers have been given frontline responsibility for their policies, is actually setting Labor up as a long term government, in the same way as all the policy work between 1977 and 1983 set Labor up to be a long-term government.

    The problem for politics for some time, probably since Howard became PM by using a ‘small target’ strategy, is an increasing obsession with getting power at the cost of develop a coherent practical and achievable plan for what will be done once in power. The apotheosis of this mindset was the 2014 budget and its failure, leaving the Coalition government with absolutely no serious idea of what to do with the rest of its term other than win the next election and try to get as much of its 2014 budget up again by devious means and dishonest rhetoric.

  6. [121
    TPOF
    Like most Labor supporters, I favoured Albanese because he was far more likely to take the fight up to the Liberals the way Abbott did for them when LOTO. However, to my surprise Shorten did seem to be the most convincing and committed to my ears when listening to the debates.    ]

    That was my experience as well. Shorten won me over completely when he maintained Labor’s commitment to carbon pricing. Shorten will be an excellent Prime Minister should Labor win – his record of negotiation, inclusion and conciliation, as well as Labor’s minority government experience, means Labor would be able to negotiate its agenda through the Senate.

    The thing that most impresses me about Shorten as a leader is how willing he has been to let members of shadow cabinet build their credibility in their respective profiles. I hope this continues through to the election campaign.

  9. A good manager gets on and works with with everyone, not just other managers. He or she values all contributions, and where they disagree seek to lead by example, perhaps even changing others’ – and even their own – minds in the process.

    There is nothing wrong with this.

  10. We are back to just after the 2014 budget.

    Student protests.
    Business failing

    Public worried about education and health.

    I am sure the polls are going to go south for the LNP.

  11. [political_alert: Senator John Madigan offered $10,000 before ABCC vote #auspol]
    From the Australian. Some interesting journo’s for that story. Chip Le Grand (sports writer – Essendon story) and Rosie Lewis (didnt her father get burnt with the Slipper thing?).

  12. I wonder if Peter Dutton has this in his diary?
    The next Great Trentham Spudfest will be held on Saturday 7 May 2016

    http://trenthamspudfest.org.au/
    [SPUDTASTIC fun, food, music, games, entertainment and activities galore!
    You’d never guess potatoes could be this much fun!
    Saturday 7 May 2016 • 10am to 4pm • Quarry Street Reserve, Trentham
    The annual Great Trentham Spudfest is now in its ninth exciting year and all the fun and games will take over the town. This festival is a wonderful way to celebrate the spirit of the community and recognise Trentham’s potato-growing heritage. Once again, the usually shy, humble and bashful potato bursts free from life underground and basks in the limelight for festivities in its honour. The Great Trentham Spudfest is an opportunity for visitors and the local community to join in a number of exciting spud activities and have a spudtacular time. Last year over 4000 people enjoyed the festivities so come along and join us – there will be something for everyone!
     Spud games and spud activities galore!
     Face painting
     Spuds for sale from local farmers
     Market stalls and great food
     Free music all day on the main stage
     Roaming entertainers
     Animals to pat and jumping castle
    Cooking demonstrations with executive chefs from Les Toques Blanches
    Spud digger hut open to view – more details (combined Trentham Lions Club and Trentham Historical Society project)
    Spudfest dinner at Trentham Golf Course – more details shortly
    For more information go to the program page, phone 0419 897 660 or email info@trenthamspudfest.org.au]
    No, I haven’t made any of it up.

    Was mentioned on Jon Faines program this morning.

  13. MTBW @ 151,

    So, Vote1Julia and MTBW could you both give the dog a bone!?!

    Nope!

    Well, I’m sorry, but that just shows how pig-headed you are. It also devalues your contributions down to somewhere between zero and bupkis.

  14. guytaur @ 152

    What gets me is the implication (and that is all) in the headline that it was an attempted bribe. In fact, even if it was sourced from the union, it was an offer of a campaign donation from a union to the cross-bencher who was most clearly already opposed to the ABCC legislation in its present form.

    This is absolutely no different to any offer of a donation from an organisation or person who has a clear financial or other interest in a policy decision. And, typically, those donations flow to the parties that are already committed or strongly supportive of what the donor wants.

    So if mining companies donated to the Liberals in 2013 because the Liberals promised to repeal the carbon price and the mining tax nobody was claiming this was a bribe, and in the absence of a specific identified request of something for the donation is really no different from any other donation.

  16. guytaur,
    There will be more dirty tricks from the Coalition. When you corner rats they lash out. It reminds me of all the unsavoury characters the Coalition and News Corpse and The Age dredged up to speak out about Julia Gillard and her home renovations.
    It’s sick-making stuff but it’s what the Coalition, in partnership with others, does best.

  17. Oh YEAH!!!!

    [http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-open-to-serving-in-a-malcolm-turnbull-cabinet-20160407-go0ftr.html]

  18. MTBW,
    Yep. My opinion and the opinion of about 90% of others here. Still, you keep indulging your bitter fantasies. We can’t stop that but we are free to comment about it.

  19. C@t, Vote1Julia and MTBW each already have a bone – and they won’t stop gnawing on it for at least another few years, even if Bill turns out to be a great PM. Just treat them with ignore…

  21. Tony Abbott has left the door open to serving in cabinet in a re-elected Turnbull government, though he has stressed such an idea is “entirely hypothetical”, while also suggesting he would not have proposed state governments be given the chance to take a share of federal income tax.

    And Mr Abbott says he doesn’t “think it would be fair” to suggest the Turnbull government was in trouble – despite falling behind Labor in a Newspoll published this week – and pointed out that he had not commented on polls while opposition leader or prime minister

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-open-to-serving-in-a-malcolm-turnbull-cabinet-20160407-go0ftr.html#ixzz456fHU6Od
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  22. God. Greg Jennett is awful. After playing the Shorten interview, especially noting that the Labor support for the cross-river rail as a long term infrastructure project, Jennett blithely announces that Shorten has announced his support as a political stunt.

    And now he’s feeding Dan Tehan all his lines.

  24. From what I’ve read lately it seems that the ABC has moved up another gear in its attempt to thwart Labor in the run up to the election. Talking over Labor people in interviews seems to have reached a new high. Labor guests should call them out when they do.

  25. Jones “interview” with Ellis on Lateline was pathetic. All he was trying to do was link education funding to smoking tax. WTF? Ellis should have told him that we have a consolidated revenue fund for a fn reason, to avoid such nonsense. Coal are obviously trying to make the link so they can axe the evil “worker tax” then use that as an excuse to back out of education. Or if the number of smokers drops significantly then they will use that as the excuse to cry poor. It worked for the mining tax linked to unrelated spending but I don’t think it will work this time.

  26. TPOF@171

    God. Greg Jennett is awful. After playing the Shorten interview, especially noting that the Labor support for the cross-river rail as a long term infrastructure project, Jennett blithely announces that Shorten has announced his support as a political stunt.

    And now he’s feeding Dan Tehan all his lines.

    Link?

  28. Bemused at 175

    To clarify, Jennett did not use the word ‘stunt’. What he said was something like “Labor has to do XXX to win the election, so he was in Brisbane announcing the cross-river rail”.

  29. Bemused

    Further to my posts at 176 and 177, this is not part of an ABC is biased rant. It is particularly directed at Jennett, who I feel is pretty bad at covering up for his own biases – which should be the mark of a good journalist. It may simply be a case of not thinking about what he says sounds like.

  30. TPOF@177

    Bemused at 175

    To clarify, Jennett did not use the word ‘stunt’. What he said was something like “Labor has to do XXX to win the election, so he was in Brisbane announcing the cross-river rail”.

    OK, thanks.

  32. TPOF@178

    Bemused

    Further to my posts at 176 and 177, this is not part of an ABC is biased rant. It is particularly directed at Jennett, who I feel is pretty bad at covering up for his own biases – which should be the mark of a good journalist. It may simply be a case of not thinking about what he says sounds like.

    Understood.

    You are not one of those who has an anti-ABC reflex.
    There are all sorts of explanations for poor performances by ABC journalists including laziness, incompetence and stupidity.

    I also think there is a fair amount of over-compensation as a defence against the continuous shrill screams of left wing bias from the right.

  33. [Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop says Australian authorities are urgently trying to locate 60 Minutes reporter Tara Brown and her crew, who are being detained by Lebanese police, and offer them help.

    The TV crew were detained after filming the recovery of two Australian children, aged two and five, who had been taken to Beirut by their Lebanese father early last year, Fairfax reports.
    ]

    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/04/07/dfat-urgently-trying-locate-60-minutes-crew-bishop

  34. [Tony Abbott has left the door open to serving in cabinet in a re-elected Turnbull government]

    A question to the Labor insiders here. Seriously. He’s a Labor plant, isn’t he?

  35. [ I would’ve thought that the fact that Shorten is able to get on with people with very different ideological worldviews would a sign of intellectual strength, not weakness. ]

    Its the necessary skill that the Libs have NOT got in spades.

    Shorten has come from a background much like Gillard’s where to achieve the best end you can, to get all or most of your objective secured, you have to actually, really, negotiate with people who want something different. Gillard had to negotiate EVERYTHING through both Houses and she was, objectively, very successful at that.

    The Libs were in a position when they were elected to be able to get stuff through the Senate, but they poisoned the critical relationships there seemingly as fast as they could. And all indications are they have learned NOTHING from that.

    One of the best reasons for electing a Shorten Govt is that we may well get back to actual, functioning governance, instead of the born to rule tantys and brain fart driven dysfunction we get from the Libs.

  36. Despite tightening polls, Labor currently is poised to win only nine of the 21 Coalition seats it needs for victory.

    Shows how bloody hard it is to knock off a first-term government, however incompetent it may be.

  39. David

    I noticed at the time that the NSW Greens went to great lengths to say they wouldn’t do deals with the Liberals. No similar statement has been made by the Victorian branch.

  40. [http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-open-to-serving-in-a-malcolm-turnbull-cabinet-20160407-go0ftr.html]

    Nice Smeagol…

    you know the rest.

  41. jenauthor @ 101

    I’m with you.

    I voted for Shorten, with some reservations, and have been disappointed at times with his seeming lack of grunt and gravitas.

    He has really lifted his game in all areas.

    The installation of Cameron Millner, former QLD Labor Secretary, as his COS, has been a big boost for his mojo.

  42. imacca

    We really didn’t need four photos of Tony in biking gear, with one doing his chimpanzee walk.

    Massola is a twerp. He’s happily giving attention and promotion to the rival. wtte “Tony denies… is willing to help wherever he can… “

  44. Toorak Toff@186

    Despite tightening polls, Labor currently is poised to win only nine of the 21 Coalition seats it needs for victory.

    Shows how bloody hard it is to knock off a first-term government, however incompetent it may be.

    Well lets see where the trend takes us over the next few weeks.

  45. David Pocock has made a reasonable apology for some very ordinary behaviour :

    I endeavour to play the game I love in a way that reflects the kind of toughness and decency I think rugby can teach us,” he said. “On Saturday night I did not live up to those standards, placing Michael Leitch in danger by binding on his neck in a maul.
    It was not my intention to hurt Michael, but in these sorts of circumstances it is not intention that matters.
    I would like to take this opportunity to apologise again to Michael. And to apologise to the Chiefs, Brumbies and all those who follow rugby. I’d also like to apologise to my team-mates who I will let down over the next few weeks while suspended.

    He’s one of the players I tell my team to watch for inspiration on how to play the game, hopefully he will continue to inspire.

    http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/apr/07/david-pocock-issues-extensive-apology-for-dangerous-hold-on-michael-leitch#comments

  46. David@187

    Greens have written off Anthony Albanese seat of Grayndler? They seem to be more interested in talking up Batman and Wills. Anthony Green on 7:30 report also mentioned Greens could be a chance in Batman and Wills, but didn’t mention Grayndler either.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-06/melbourne-northern-suburbs-federal-election-battle-labor-greens/7274698

    Surely our ‘friends and allies’ are not going to win seats off us???

    Please explain? 👿

  47. Bemused @ 182

    You say-

    There are all sorts of explanations for poor performances by ABC journalists including laziness, incompetence and stupidity.

    I also think there is a fair amount of over-compensation as a defence against the continuous shrill screams of left wing bias from the right.

    SO you are all but conceding there is a problem but because you view it as not being bias but ‘merely’ laziness, incompetence and stupidity then that somehow excuses the ABC’s behaviour.

    With all respect in my opinion the excuses you proffer for the ABC’s conduct are every bit as bad as is they were just plain biased.

  48. [God. Greg Jennett is awful. After playing the Shorten interview, especially noting that the Labor support for the cross-river rail as a long term infrastructure project, Jennett blithely announces that Shorten has announced his support as a political stunt.]

    Jennet’s so bad he makes Ulhmann look good.

  50. Colton@197

    Bemused @ 182

    You say-
    —
    SO you are all but conceding there is a problem but because you view it as not being bias but ‘merely’ laziness, incompetence and stupidity then that somehow excuses the ABC’s behaviour.

    With all respect in my opinion the excuses you proffer for the ABC’s conduct are every bit as bad as is they were just plain biased.

    The problem is the expectation of perfect behaviour on all occasions. Just unattainable.

    And of course staff will respond to the continual screeches of left wing bias from the right. And some of this might be driven by management.

    Under the circumstances, I think the ABC does reasonably well.

    Interesting though that an ABC board member is in strife over her role in Theiss when on their Board Ethics Committee.

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