The Easter weekend has meant the only poll this week has been the usual weekly reading from Essential Research, which records a tie on two-party preferred for the fourth week in a row. Both major parties are steady on the primary vote – the Coalition on 43%, Labor on 38% – while the Greens are down a point to 9%. There is accordingly not much change on the surface of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which records a gentle move to the Coalition that yields nothing on the seat projection. However, there’s a lot going on under the BludgerTrack bonnet, as I’m now doing it in R rather than SAS/STAT, and relying a lot less on Excel to plug the gaps. Now that I’ve wrapped my head around R, I can probe a lot more deeply into the data with a lot less effort – commencing with the observation that the Coalition’s two-party vote would be around 0.5% higher if I was using a trend of respondent-allocated preference to determine the result, rather than 2013 election preferences. I’ve also done my regular quarterly BludgerTrack breakdowns, featuring state-level primary votes based on results from Morgan, Ipsos, Essential and ReachTEL, together with the breakdowns published this week by Newspoll.
Further polling:
• The Essential poll found 44% would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate blocked the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, with disapproval at only 23%. Respondents also showed good sense when asked the main reason why Prime Minister might wish to do such a thing: 25% opted for clearing independents from the Senate, 30% for getting an election in before he loses further support, and only 14% for actually getting the ABCC restored. Other questions recorded an unsurprising weight of support for income tax cuts (62% more important, 61% better for the economy) over company tax cuts (16% and 19% respectively). Results for a series of questions on which party was best to manage various aspects of economic policy were also much as expected, though slightly more favourable to the Coalition than when the questions were last posed a few weeks before the 2014 budget. A semi-regular inquiry into the attributes of the Labor and Liberal parties allows an opportunity for comparison with a poll conducted in November, shortly before the recent improvement in Labor’s fortunes. Labor’s movements are perhaps a little surprising, with extreme up and moderate down, and “looks after the interests of working people” down as well. The Liberals are down vision, leadership and clarity, and up on division.
• The Herald-Sun has a report on ReachTEL poll commissioned by the progressive Australia Institute think tank in the regional Victorian seat of Indi, which Sophie Mirabella hopes to recover for the Liberals after her defeat by independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. The news is not good for Mirabella, with McGowan recording a lead on the primary vote of 37.3% to 26.9%, while the Nationals are a distant third on 10.6%. The report says a 56-44 two-candidate preferred result from the poll allocated all Nationals preferences to Mirabella, a decision that was perhaps made in ignorance of the level of support McGowan received from Nationals voters in 2013. The primary votes as reported would more likely pan out to around 60-40.
Preselection latest:
• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports the Liberal preselection for the new Western Australian seat of Burt is a tight tussle between Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme, and Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor. Storer is supported by the state branch’s increasingly assertive Christian Right, and in particular by its leading powerbroker in Perth’s southern suburbs, state upper house MP Nick Goiran.
• The Weekly Times reports that Damian Drum, state upper house member for Northern Victoria region and one-time coach of the Fremantle Dockers AFL club, will nominate for Nationals preselection in the seat of Murray, following the weekend’s retirement announcement from Liberal incumbent Sharman Stone. The front-runner for Liberal preselection looks to be Donald McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu.
lizzie@2399
A good opening for Labor to start highlighting the facts about which side of politics actually charges the most tax.
Every time.
Not to mention what they spend it on.
victoria@2395
guytaur@2496
It was a textbook execution of early positioning, that is starting to pay off, just at the right time in the local and global political cycle.
You could be excused for thinking that Labor knew in advance about the Panama papers.
Regardless, Labor deftly belled the Turnbull neo-liberal corporatist tax-dodging cat at a time and in a manner largely of their choosing.
Wherever Mal turns in his increasing desperation the damn thing just rings louder and louder, shriller and shriller.
It was a beautiful move from Labor, that deserves more acknowledgement.
Pity it is for such serious stakes, otherwise it would be hugely enjoyable.
He needs the gravy train of parliamentary salary and entitlements. What else would he do? Where else could he gain employment that pays him an equivalent salary in today’s climate (no pun intended 😀 )?
———————————————
Good point, confessions. I feel there are many on both sides and Greens who are used to the gravy train. Public servants of all types really don’t know how it is to survive out there in a non-government position.
I’m self employed and I can say it is quite difficult right now.
Public service jobs are the elite of jobs. I would recommend any young person getting a degree and aiming for that.
Kevin Andrews has probably reached a time to move on to the next stage of life, as happens to all of us in due course.
[3073
Airlines
The Greens, I think, would have always been a staple in Tasmania, but what got them going federally are things like asylum seekers (in the form of Tampa), the Iraq War and the like. I’d say that a fair chunk of the federal support of the Greens came from non-environmental causes, much more than the Tasmanian Greens did.]
I agree (putting aside the fact Labor voted against the Iraq War, and the fact that Tampa was an attempt to wedge Labor). I’ve said before that I think refugee processing and national security are the only truly substantive differences between the two parties – and even those amount to differences over how people think Labor should respond to the Coalition’s immoral use of those issues to wedge Labor.
Everything else (in my view) is a matter of priorities and practicalities, rather than principle.
poss, 3094
Out of Newspoll/Ipsos/Essential/Morgan/ReachTEL:
ReachTEL went from 10.1% to 10.5%, but there was a 2 month gap so let’s just ignore it.
Morgan recorded a 3pp drop iirc.
Ipsos had a maybe 1pp drop (from 15% to 14%), but I thought that this was because of a bad sample size which affected the ALP too. However, it could be because of Senate reforms.
Essential raised itself up to 11% directly afterwards and then crashed down to 9% two weeks later which is confusing.
Newspoll has shown 12% since time immemorial (ie since late January), though I could be proven wrong later on tonight.
If there has been a swing against the Greens (ie whatever is evident in Ipsos and Morgan), I think it was negligible.
Ausdavo and others
I spend plenty of time talking to and associating with Greens members and supporters. Naturally I can only talk for Adelaide, but I’ve picked up no evidence of a backlash due to our support for Senate voting reform, in fact it has been enthusiastically welcomed. People I talk to just do not see it in the ridiculous way that Labor and it’s supporters have tried to frame it, as some dirty deal that proves the Greens are getting closer to the Liberals, but rather the implementation of long standing Greens policy. I was at a function recently full of Greens members and supporters, and every time Senate reform was mentioned, the room erupted in applause and cheering. If that’s a backlash, I’d love to see happy!
ratsak
[Maybe he’ll claim it plagiarised?]
BishJnr would be the most likely offender if it was so.
Just me
[You could be excused for thinking that Labor knew in advance about the Panama papers.]
They did
I should of said
“Me thinks they did”
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/nov/18/bad-sex-award-2015-the-contenders-in-quotes
Still all is not lost for Dennis, he might still win the bad sex award.
mat31
[I was at a function recently full of Greens members and supporters, and every time Senate reform was mentioned, the room erupted in applause and cheering.]
You’re confused.
You said it yourself “full of Greens members and supporters”, so no measure at all.
[BishJnr would be the most likely offender if it was so.]
You could be onto something there. Same team, adjoining electorates. Was Julie doing a bit of editing for Dennis and just added in some bits she’d seen written somewhere?
[Public servants of all types really don’t know how it is to survive out there in a non-government position.]
They certainly would struggle to spend all the extra money, and enjoy the comparative lack of responsibility.
ABC website:
[Crocodiles on the run in WA’s Kimberley after reptile park break-in]
Help needed –
Is this about the Nationals or the Liberals?
[mat31
I was at a function recently full of Greens members and supporters, and every time Senate reform was mentioned, the room erupted in applause and cheering.
You’re confused.
You said it yourself “full of Greens members and supporters”, so no measure at all.
]
Like at the soccer, the home crowd cheering when a really unfair penalty is awarded against the away side, of course it was a bad decision of course the home people cheer like idiots, it is what you have room full of mindless idiots for.
Are the Dirty Dealer’s duffers still trying to justify the Grubby Green’s deal with the Five Yard Man?
Go figure!
[Is this about the Nationals or the Liberals?]
If the crocs are on the roof it’s Katter.
ratsak
[Same team, adjoining electorates.]
Hmmm … There may have been even more ‘joining’ going on at some point.
Love thwarted?
😀
@Boerwar
Melbourne Ports.
CTaR1
You might recall Malcolm Douglas, something of an identity. He has gone to a better place. His wife and the crocs remain.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-04/more-baby-crocodiles-found-near-cable-beach/7298668
[PhoenixGreen
Posted Monday, April 4, 2016 at 9:10 pm | Permalink
@Boerwar
Melbourne Ports.]
The Grubby Greens are all in Melbourne Ports?
[@Boerwar
Melbourne Ports.
]
Really if you spent 2 seconds, while knitting, watching TV and dodging live fire you still have spare brain parts sufficient to work out why Danby is doing what he is doing.
I’m not saying I like him, I’m not saying I agree with him, I’m not saying I’d even vote labor if he were my potential member, I’m just saying it can’t come as a surprise to anything smarter than moss on a rock that has been sitting in a blazing hot sun for days without moisture couldn’t work out for itself.
ratsak
I thought Katter was stuck in the kitchen (hat to large to negotiate the doorway)?
It does not matter whether the Greens get 10% or 15% or 20% or 25%.
Until they get 51% they are a waste of space.
Danby is a Grubby Greens?
Bw
[The Grubby Greens are all in Melbourne Ports?]
It could explain why people keep wanting to dredge.
@3102 – That’s a very old school view. As someone who was a public servant, is married to a public servant and lives around them. The idea that it’s an easy life and that those in the public service don’t understand “real life” is complete and utter bollocks.
Yes, some transition from Uni directly to the APS, but a lot don’t, including myself. Again, you’ve got a very old-fashioned view of the public service.
CTaR1
Yeah. But where to dump the toxic spoil?
Boerwar @3115:
[Are the Dirty Dealer’s duffers still trying to justify the Grubby Green’s deal with the Five Yard Man?]
If you’re talking about the Senate reforms, this duffer will happily continue justifying that particular “dirty deal” until the end of time. IMO, it was a long overdue change that has massively improved our electoral processes and put the delegation preferences back into the voters instead of political parties. How the crossbenchers may or may not have voted on various pieces of legislation this term is utterly irrelevent to the merits of the actual changes to Senate voting.
Are you still trying to justify the continued existence of Group Voting Tickets?
Dastyiari can hardly believe his luck.
He did the grandstanding before taws and now the Mother of All White Swan events lands in his lap.
Airlines@3104
I think what you’re trying to say here is that it is happening within the MoE.
IMO Morgan polling is to this term what Essential was last term.
And that was an interesting 4 Corners report. Somehow I get a feeling a deja vu. Still waiting for the next catch of leaks.
Next week focuses on Clive Palmer’s business dealings.
Bw
[eah. But where to dump the toxic spoil?]
Elementary, my boyo. The Electorate of Wentworth will do nicely.
[Are you still trying to justify the continued existence of Group Voting Tickets?]
Come up with a way yet to explain how disenfranchising them, so they definitely don’t express a view, is better than GVT which may in some cases represent their view well?
Raaraa, 3130
Yeah, that’s a much better way to phrase it.
And I think neither Essential nor Morgan have really given up their signature traits: Essential underestimating any swing or bounce (which is why it always coalesces around the 50-50 mark) and Morgan flinging itself out in any which way as it sees fit (which is why we get 56 and 57 results occasionally)
With these latest Panama leaks, illegal activity in our finance industry and issues with corporate donations we absolutely must have a federal ICAC / Royal Commission into corruption in this country with a view to passing whatever laws are necessary to stamp it out.
I hope Labor make it so – even if it will cause massive bloodless on their side it is vital for the health of the nation.
Whether white-collar or violent crime we need to start putting people away for a very long time who conclusively, deliberately and knowingly do the wrong thing.
How about mandatory 10 year jail sentences for any company directors found guilty of tax fraud or corruption for a start?
WeWantPaul@3133
Nobody’s stopping these people from continuing to preference to as many as they would like.
bloodloss (autocorrect)
GVT represents more peoples’ views poorly than it does those well.
[Until they get 51% they are a waste of space.]
When was the last time Labor recorded 51% on the primary vote federally?
Boerwar @3123:
[It does not matter whether the Greens get 10% or 15% or 20% or 25%.
Until they get 51% they are a waste of space]
Yes, I suppose they really should be aiming to reach the lofty heights achieved by Boerwar’s party of choice, the massively influential and wlectorally successful Secular Party. A party that, interestingly enough, actually preferenced the Liberals ahead of Ricky Muir on their Group Voting Tickets in 2013.
Which reminds me: all those heroics crossbenchers who are being so unfairly tossed out by the Senate reforms… by your logic, wouldn’t they all be irrelevent wastes of space too? For that matter, what’s the point of having any political parties besides Labor or the Liberals? Or those pesky independants, none of them are going to form government. Might as well scrap them all – they’re not going to win government in any elections until at least 2030 anyway, and everybody knows that being in government is the only way any politician can ever exert any influence at all.
No one is being disenfranchised. All voters will have the ability to preference all candidates in any order they choose, just as they did before.
president of the solipsist society@3138
How many decades has it been since any party got 51% of the primary vote?
A.L.
Q. How do you spell ‘Greens’?
A. I.R.R.E.L.E.V.A.N.T.
While the Greens are quite happy to argue until the cows come home about how right they are about every last thing, it does not matter what the Greens think.
Because they have done no Big Things and for the foreseeable future they will do no Big Things.
Raaraa, I don’t know. Presumably every party is a waste of space under Boerwar’s criteria then, even his beloved Labor.
[Nobody’s stopping these people from continuing to preference to as many as they would like.]
No but to justify the premise of your change the GVT was distorting their vote, this means they were not capable of below the line voting, did not understand the concept of published group tickets and then voted for nothing more than the name of the party. And you wanted to help these poor souls who just voted 1 for the name of a party they liked not be tricked by the publicly available ‘secret’ group voting tickets.
Yeah I was surprised how pathetic and stupid your initial argument was and absolutely stunned when people I had respected and considered intelligent seemed to fall for it.
Anyway to ‘help’ these poor voters who were getting it wrong (they had to be it was the only reason advanced by the change case to change there is no other honest explanation, although the case for change was one of the stupidest and most dishonest cons we have ever seen in Australian political history). Anyway I get distracted by love of democracy and my genuine concern for the 25% or more of the Australian public that willing chose to vote this way. To let them express the same view now they have to effectively vote below the line (they would need on the case put by one of the OPV fans who I had previously respected something like 20 minor party preferences) and the very reason for change was because they couldn’t do that. As I said one of the stupidest and most dishonest public debates in Australian political history.
Raaraa, 3141
I actually went and looked this up, and it’s 1954. The ALP managed to barely scrape 50%, but the Coalition hung on anyway. The Coalition itself won 50% in 1966, but that was split between the Liberals and the Nationals, so it doesn’t count.
The difference between the Greens and the Liberals is that the Liberals do government.
The Greens do gabble.
Funnily enough, that’s also the difference between Labor and the Liberals at the moment.
When was the last time federal Labor won 51% or more of the primary vote?
Why would legitimacy to influence public affairs hinge on winning at least 51% of the primary vote?
@boerwar
A little bit rich for someone who spent 2 months leading up to the 2013 election advocating for an informal vote to talk about who is relevant and who is not I would have thought. Oh, and did the informal party reach 51%?
L G H
Just saying ‘Apple done it’ is enough.