BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

Not much happening in terms of national polling this week, but a privately conducted poll finds Sophie Mirabella has little hope of recovering her old seat of Indi from independent Cathy McGowan.

The Easter weekend has meant the only poll this week has been the usual weekly reading from Essential Research, which records a tie on two-party preferred for the fourth week in a row. Both major parties are steady on the primary vote – the Coalition on 43%, Labor on 38% – while the Greens are down a point to 9%. There is accordingly not much change on the surface of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which records a gentle move to the Coalition that yields nothing on the seat projection. However, there’s a lot going on under the BludgerTrack bonnet, as I’m now doing it in R rather than SAS/STAT, and relying a lot less on Excel to plug the gaps. Now that I’ve wrapped my head around R, I can probe a lot more deeply into the data with a lot less effort – commencing with the observation that the Coalition’s two-party vote would be around 0.5% higher if I was using a trend of respondent-allocated preference to determine the result, rather than 2013 election preferences. I’ve also done my regular quarterly BludgerTrack breakdowns, featuring state-level primary votes based on results from Morgan, Ipsos, Essential and ReachTEL, together with the breakdowns published this week by Newspoll.

Further polling:

• The Essential poll found 44% would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate blocked the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill, with disapproval at only 23%. Respondents also showed good sense when asked the main reason why Prime Minister might wish to do such a thing: 25% opted for clearing independents from the Senate, 30% for getting an election in before he loses further support, and only 14% for actually getting the ABCC restored. Other questions recorded an unsurprising weight of support for income tax cuts (62% more important, 61% better for the economy) over company tax cuts (16% and 19% respectively). Results for a series of questions on which party was best to manage various aspects of economic policy were also much as expected, though slightly more favourable to the Coalition than when the questions were last posed a few weeks before the 2014 budget. A semi-regular inquiry into the attributes of the Labor and Liberal parties allows an opportunity for comparison with a poll conducted in November, shortly before the recent improvement in Labor’s fortunes. Labor’s movements are perhaps a little surprising, with extreme up and moderate down, and “looks after the interests of working people” down as well. The Liberals are down vision, leadership and clarity, and up on division.

• The Herald-Sun has a report on ReachTEL poll commissioned by the progressive Australia Institute think tank in the regional Victorian seat of Indi, which Sophie Mirabella hopes to recover for the Liberals after her defeat by independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. The news is not good for Mirabella, with McGowan recording a lead on the primary vote of 37.3% to 26.9%, while the Nationals are a distant third on 10.6%. The report says a 56-44 two-candidate preferred result from the poll allocated all Nationals preferences to Mirabella, a decision that was perhaps made in ignorance of the level of support McGowan received from Nationals voters in 2013. The primary votes as reported would more likely pan out to around 60-40.

Preselection latest:

• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports the Liberal preselection for the new Western Australian seat of Burt is a tight tussle between Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme, and Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor. Storer is supported by the state branch’s increasingly assertive Christian Right, and in particular by its leading powerbroker in Perth’s southern suburbs, state upper house MP Nick Goiran.

• The Weekly Times reports that Damian Drum, state upper house member for Northern Victoria region and one-time coach of the Fremantle Dockers AFL club, will nominate for Nationals preselection in the seat of Murray, following the weekend’s retirement announcement from Liberal incumbent Sharman Stone. The front-runner for Liberal preselection looks to be Donald McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,289 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 62 of 66
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  1. D&M

    [In April 1983 the Federal Government tasked a Mirage jet and later an RF-111]

    Yep.

    I looked after the repossession, from trophy hunters, and later archiving of the gun camera photos taken by the 111-0 from East Sale and the better ones from the Bush Pigs.

    There was not one, even prepubescent, ‘GREEN’ in sight.

  2. abc730: .@KellyODwyer: The Australian Government will never tolerate tax avoidance in Australia #panamapapers #auspol

  3. Airlines if you read my previous reply I explained where my estimates come from:
    a) Green supportes now ALP
    b) LNP movers who might normally go Green going straight to ALP.
    c) ALP supporters who last time voted Green and are back with the ALP.
    I’m not one who knocks the Greens per se but on the Senate issue my opinion is they are wrong because I expect them to put Australia first. Their “deal with the devil” could help the LNP to get it’s stalled legislation through. That would be a black day for Australia. I hope Greens and the ALP will preference each other in every seat and stop playing games. The ordinary punter doesn’t see or understand politics the way people on here do.

  4. [Stephen Long doing an excellent report into how Labor saved Australia from the Great Recession. 7:30]

    Now we have Kelly O’Dwyer explaining how the govt is really truly serious about corporate tax avoidance. Guess it’s their idea of balance.

  6. So Nick did you work out yet what concessions, if any, other than the CGT discount the greens are going to remove?

  7. Ctari,

    [D&M

    In April 1983 the Federal Government tasked a Mirage jet and later an RF-111

    Yep.

    I looked after the repossession, from trophy hunters, and later archiving of the gun camera photos taken by the 111-0 from East Sale and the better ones from the Bush Pigs.

    There was not one, even prepubescent, ‘GREEN’ in sight.]

    Wow! Thanks for this info. I think a lot of us here are no longer in the first flush of youth, and so we have a pretty damn good collective memory.

    Also, thanks for the suggestion that it was Beazley rather than Evans who did the flyover. I my have remembered Gareth Evens, as Attorney General defending “Bomber Beazley”.

  8. [ The Australian Government will never tolerate tax avoidance in Australia]

    REally? What is she doing about the reported 98 companies who paid no company tax in 2013-14? Way I heard it, the govt she’s a member of is offering a company tax reduction instead!

  9. [abc730: .@KellyODwyer: The Australian Government will never tolerate tax avoidance in Australia #panamapapers #auspol]

    Of course the Libs would never just ‘tolerate’ tax avoidance. They’d facilitate and celebrate it.

  10. ausdavo, 3053

    You have assumed various things, none of which have shown up in any polling. We can’t just make assumptions and then proclaim them as fact. Similarly, I could say something along the lines of “wow, the Greens are getting votes from the ALP and LNP and they’re going to hit 15% at the election”, it doesn’t make it true unless there’s something to back it up.

    There’s no proof that Turnbull will get his legislation through due to Senate reform.

  11. Re PhoenixGreen @3027: I regard the Liberal / National / Murdoch / IPA coalition as a malevolent force, backed by most of the money and ‘natural’ sources of power in this country, who want to change Australia in ways I don’t like, a petty, nasty country that will not be fit for the coming and future generations. I don’t want this Coalition’s slimy fingers anywhere near the levers of power, certainly not until they’ve had a few cleansing terms in Opposition. I vote Labor as the best chance of keeping them out.

  13. MichaelPascoe01: Think i just heard @KellyODwyer say tax avoidance is against the law. Will come as a big shock to her electorate.

  15. Why does the ABC persist in the cult of personality Sales, Jone, Cassidy et al
    They conduct interviews without deep background knowledge or understanding of the underlying principles.

    ABC should let talking heads introduce the programs then differ to “expert” interviewers.
    We might all learn something.

  16. [Peter van Onselen
    1h1 hour ago
    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP
    I’m told Kevin Andrews clarified his remarks re wanting Turnbulls job. Twas just a misunderstanding. At least no one was wrongly deported…]

  17. sceptic

    This time 7:30 did just that with the Stephen Long story. Their problem is in thinking Sales is an expert political interviewer.

  19. Australian Government will never tolerate tax avoidance in Australia #panamapapers #auspol

    Kelly O’Bigmouth – I call bullshit, unless you’re referring to PAYG taxpayers.

  20. [3006
    guytaur
    However if Labor had been the saviour of the environment you are claiming there would have been no Greens party in the first place.    ]

    I think the Greens arose because the Tasmanian ALP was very much regressive on environmental issues in the past. They then gradually became the party of portions of the inner-city middle-class for whom “the environment” is a somewhat nebulous concept and a relatively mid-order issue competing with other priorities.

    Whether or not it had much to do with federal Labor’s record on the environment, which you concede is pretty good, is highly debatable.

    [

    3028
    guytaur
    Its to Labor’s credit it saved the Franklin Dam. Same with a lot of policies. Its why Greens preference Labor so heavily. Greens voters see the reality of party positions.

    And yet you think Greens voters will punish Labor for what one MP says in one electorate, thereby potentially helping elect a Liberal? How capricious do you think Greens voters are?

  21. poroti

    ‘Bomber’ got that name because he was fond of having his picture taken in cockpits.

    Gareth got ‘Biggles’ because he threw a tantrum and demanded the RAAF ‘do something’.

    Initial response, one Mirage from Williamtown to East Sale for a refuel and then onwards.

  22. [GetUp!
    13m13 minutes ago
    GetUp! ‏@GetUp
    Strange – 2014 budget slashes 4400 ATO jobs but @KellyODwyer reckons restoring only some of those cuts last year is extra resources]

  23. JD, 3070

    The Greens, I think, would have always been a staple in Tasmania, but what got them going federally are things like asylum seekers (in the form of Tampa), the Iraq War and the like. I’d say that a fair chunk of the federal support of the Greens came from non-environmental causes, much more than the Tasmanian Greens did.

  24. JD

    I have only been saying that Labor can’t get all precious about any preferences the Greens might give to the LNP ahead of Labor now.

    I have said nothing about Greens voters changing preferences.

    I did say Danby was stupid if he thought telling voters to vote LNP before the Greens would be a punishment of sorts to give the LNP types like Kroger a lesson.

  25. You gotta laugh

    [Now, the focus has switched to holding the seats it has. Labor needs fewer than 20 seats to win government. While most believe the Coalition will win, doubt has crept in and Liberal MPs have a ready-made list in their heads about the seats in their states now perceived to be under threat.

    “They’re a chance,” one Liberal said of Labor, noting that no one felt comfortable with the prospect of a seven-week campaign, which will happen if there is a July 2 double dissolution.]

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbull-and-scott-morrison-told-to-sort-out-their-relationship-20160404-gnxr2k#ixzz44qpf7jlw
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  26. *sigh*, I apologise for the format stuff up in my previous post.

    I’ll try again.

    [3028
    guytaur
    Its to Labor’s credit it saved the Franklin Dam. Same with a lot of policies. Its why Greens preference Labor so heavily. Greens voters see the reality of party positions.    ]

    And yet you think Greens voters will punish Labor for what one MP says in one electorate, thereby potentially helping elect a Liberal? How capricious do you think Greens voters are?

    I should also have added that I think Danby’s stunt is both stupid and pointless.

  30. [Sky News Australia
    50m50 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Watch Dennis Jensen’s full interview with @David_Speers HERE: http://bit.ly/1VpbdXU ]

    God, hilarious! When will this guy get it. His own electorate Lib membership hasn’t wanted him to represent them for many years now. Just go quietly and with some semblance of dignity!

  32. I don’t know how reliable this roy morgan poll is. The whole last week was a big joke and government was in shambles yet they seem to be picking up a swing. Who could have known pulling funding from public education would be a vote winner?

    This coming on top of wildly fluctuating state polls that showed Labor up in all states.

  33. Re Nicholas @3050: fair enough. I see myself on the Labor left, I’m more a closet Socialist than a closet Green. I mostly prioritise jobs over the environment, although I realise that it’s a balancing act. Even so, Labor tries to balnce it. The Liberals care about neither the environment nor jobs, just that theirconstituency can make a buck. I am appalled at the situation that young people in my family find themselves in, with degree qualifications but unable to find secure employment in the field where they studied, and apparently no hope of ever owning a home.

    That being said, my lower house vote is trapped in a blue ribbon Liberal seat. I would vote strategically for a Green or a strong independent (e.g a centrist like Ted Mack) if I judged that they had a chance of unseating the ensconced Liberal.

  34. Airlines @ 3060 – at no stage have I mentioned anything as “fact” so please don’t misrepresent me.

    At all times have I stated my opinion – that’s what I always do. I also presented the personal reasons for my opinion based on many conversations in my Newsagency. I’m relating to this forum my personal experiences. Perhaps you are too determined to “prove” that you and only you can be right. You have a right to your opinions but please don’t try to remove my right to mine.

  35. Though by allocating preferences based on last election Roy Morgan gets 51.5-48.5, which is in line with bludertrack.

  36. [MichaelPascoe01: Think i just heard @KellyODwyer say tax avoidance is against the law. Will come as a big shock to her electorate.]

    I heard that as well. I thought at the time that she meant ‘evasion’ but she was too busy lying about the ATO sackings.

  37. confessions, 3080

    I hope he resigns from the Libs. We haven’t had a good pre-election resignation since maybe whoever preceded Jane Prentice.

  38. Okay, so WTF is going on with Morgan?? It may well just be wishful thinking on my part, but I’m starting to wonder if they’ve got some serious methodology issues going on. Surely the Coalition can’t have gone up by that much after the nightmarish couple of weeks they’ve had?

    I suppose we’ll have some idea when Newspoll comes out later tonight.

  39. Ye gads! where did Morgan find a 3% turnaround over the last couple of weeks?? Will await Newspoll before getting upset. 🙁

    I actually suspect things will toddle along within MOE mostly until the Budget. Thats when people will definitely engage for a while, regardless of when the election is.

  40. [ Okay, so WTF is going on with Morgan?? ]

    Well, seems it sometimes takes 2 weeks or so for “events” to show up in the polls. And possibly the Libs are a bit inoculated to events based movement by having so many of them so fast??

  41. Kevin Andrews: The Baldrick of Australian politics stripped of any residual intelligence and any appealing personality traits.

  44. Occam’s Razor says last fortnight’s Morgan was a rogue. If Newspoll doesn’t move, then definitely.

    I don’t agree that the Greens haven’t changed in the polls since passing Senate voting reform with the government. I think pretty much every single poll has shown them losing 1 or 2pp support, except for Ipsos which I don’t think has reported for a while.

  45. [I hope he resigns from the Libs.]

    He needs the gravy train of parliamentary salary and entitlements. What else would he do? Where else could he gain employment that pays him an equivalent salary in today’s climate (no pun intended 😀 )?

    And the irony of all that is I bet if you went back through his maiden speech he spoke boldly and proudly of being a small government Liberal who embraced the notion of standing on your own two feet, shunning taxpayer handouts in favour of individual enterprise.

  47. JD

    [Sorry guytaur (@3074), got you and daretotread mixed up.]

    Even gt deserves an heart felt apology for that.

    What were you thinking??????????????????

  48. Jensen wants to sue the socks of the Australian for suggesting he wrote a dirty filthy book. The only problem with his claim is that he DID write it.

  49. [Jensen wants to sue the socks of the Australian for suggesting he wrote a dirty filthy book. The only problem with his claim is that he DID write it.]

    Maybe he’ll claim it plagiarised?

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