Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January-March 2016

Newspoll breakdowns find the Turnbull government sinking in Victoria and South Australia; another poll suggests the government will have a hard time selling its budget; internal polling reportedly shows Bronwyn Bishop’s goose to be cooked in Mackellar; and a Liberal-versus-Nationals stoush looms with the retirement of Sharman Stone in Murray.

Probably not much doing in the land of polling over Easter, but The Australian as always takes advantage of the situation to unload Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates, providing breakdowns of the combined polling so far this year by state, gender and metro/regional. The results strongly suggest the Coalition’s recent downward movement has been driven by Victoria.

Also of note:

• The Australian has results from a privately commissioned poll by MediaReach which suggests Bronwyn Bishop would suffer a heavy defeat if Dick Smith ran against her as an independent in Mackellar, as he says he will do if she again wins Liberal preselection. The poll of 877 respondents showed Smith on 54% of the primary vote, compared with just 21% for Bishop. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said Bishop should retire, and she recorded a net favourability of minus 30% compared with plus 59% for Smith. A report in the Daily Telegraph this week said support for Bishop was rapidly waning ahead of the preselection vote on April 16.

• A poll conducted for Sky News by Omnipoll, a new venture involving former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy, suggests the federal government will have a difficult sell with its mooted company tax cut. Out of four budgetary options offered, this one was most favoured by 3% of respondents, compared with 46% for fixing the bottom line, 27% for spending more on education, and 25% for personal income tax cuts. Respondents also faced a forced choice question on whether Malcolm Turnbull had lived up to expectations and Prime Minister, which broke 62-38 against. A table at the Sydney Morning Herald features breakdowns by age and, interestingly and unusually, income. The results suggest the most indulgent view of Turnbull’s performance is taken by the young and the wealthy.

• An intra-Coalition stoush looms in the rural Victorian seat of Murray, following Sharman Stone’s retirement announcement on Saturday. Stone gained the seat for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd in 1996. Rebecca Urban of The Australian reports candidates for Liberal preselection will include Duncan McGauchie, “a Melbourne-based communications specialist and former policy adviser to previous Victorian premier Ted Baillieu”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,804 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January-March 2016”

Comments Page 28 of 37
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  1. Zoid,

    The Family Law system is chronically underfunded. At Parramatta, there are meant to be six judges at any one time in the Federal Circuit Court. There are three. The are similar shortages of resources in the Family Court, and across most if not all registries in NSW.

    This should be a bigger issue than it currently is. Access to justice is hard enough for most people, but Family Law dramas directly effect one in three relationships. It’s an area of the law which effects voters directly, and their kids. I know it’s cynical, but there is political capital to be made in promising to restore resources to this part of the legal system.

  2. [How is it double tax?]

    Good luck trying to get that name back in it’s box Dave.

    That’s going to be the shorthand moniker given to Turnbull’s Brainfart from now on.

  4. Turnbull proposes a double-taxation system so the Age has a headline about Malcolm loving trains and trams. How bad can a newspaper get?

  6. Remind you of Mother Enda, MTBW? She’s probably the one who taught you that stupider and stupidest were wrong, despite being in the Oxford. (Probably taught you to say “haitch” as well.) I’ll take back the 100 lines remark, but srsly before you make pedantic corrections to people’s expressions, you could check it with the Oxford or, better, the Macquarie first.

  10. When Turnbull was asked about poorer states like Tas and SA not being able to generate enough revenue he said “oh we can manage that”.

    So how ya gonna manage that Mal?

    – Grants commission gonna put even more GST money in the mendicant states hands and the richer states will get less?
    – Special Federal grants to mendicant states?
    – Ship em all to Nauru?

  11. Another “out” gay candidate endorsed by the LNP? In outback Queensland? Sounds like a dare to Corgi to quit and set up his new party!

  12. [ It’ll be shelved in a few days after they’re sure we’ve all forgotten that fraud. ]

    They wish. 🙂

    Both houses are sitting for 3 weeks from the 18th.

    HoR has bugger all to do in terms of legislation for the first two weeks. I can see a situation where we have daily suspensions of standing orders moved to discuss matters of importance. 🙂

    Govt chaos and dysfunction
    Govt policy Brainfarts (i’d love to see Brain-fart in Hansard).
    SSM
    Prohibited Political Donations Laundering (seeyahs SeeNoDonors)

    and in the next two weeks who knows what else may come up???

    OR, on at least a few days, the ALP members all turn up to the HoR and simply sit as to say, ok Mal, were are here at great expense to the nation,…..what have you got for us then??? 🙂

  13. [Ratsak I am sure you are right but that didn’t answer my question.]

    Ask Tony Abbott. That’s what he called it when he ran away from the suicide vest Newman was urging him to strap on in 2014.

  14. Shell
    No, I didnt get flogged. I always found the flogging re-enactment quite weak – not as weak as the pretend Sydney Harbour which in my memory was just a farm dam.

  15. Someone on the guardian has pointed out it will be the absolute end of Medicare!

    Here’s his comment, which is very good:

    [No it wont, we will just end up with a mess of taxes, rorts, “incentives” and border hopping.

    This is just a ploy to stop the LNP having to do the right thing and raise taxed, rather than continually cutting taxes for the rich and cutting services for the rest of us.

    I repeat:

    Admittedly the devil will be in the detail, but

    a) Assuming the States can raise income tax in addition to the federal government
    b) Assuming the rates of tax will be set by each state or Territory
    c) Assuming the tax will pay for Health and Education and the Federal govt will get out of these areas

    I foresee the following happening:

    1) Federal income tax and especially corporation tax will be lowered, favouring the rich. Turnbull will announce he has balanced the budget and lowered tax simultaneously. MSM will laud him.
    2) State income tax will increase far more that the federal tax is lowered. The average punter will have a tax increase and do a lot more paperwork to do. The rich will have more loopholes available to exploit.
    3) Medicare will be disbanded as a national health scheme as it will be clearly a state by state responsibility.
    4) States will then have to start their own state healthcare schemes and start cross charging out of state patients, otherwise places like the ACT and other border areas will become health care rorts. Live in a low tax state, use the health care of a higher taxing state…
    5) Citizens may start state shopping for the lowest state income tax rates, thus forcing a tax cutting race to the bottom, thus failed tax revenues, thus states will abolish state health care, but it is not the feds fault.
    6) Some areas (Cocos and Christmas Island) will declare they have a zero tax rate and all the wealthy will have their primary “residence” in these locations. Our own Cayman Islands for Malcolm.

    This is a ridiculous thought bubble worthy of one AJA that runs completely against the tide of history and against fairness and efficiency It is designed for only one reason, to get the LNP out of a hole they dug.]

  16. Is Cathy McGowan playing the underdog or should she be genuinely worried?

    [Cathy McGowan has warned the battle for the rural Victorian seat of Indi will be close, despite polling showing the independent MP holds a 10-point lead over her Liberal party rival, Sophie Mirabella.

    The polling, commissioned by the Australia Institute, found McGowan had 37.3% of first preference votes to Mirabella’s 26.9%. But the Nationals candidate, Marty Corboy, had a support base of 10.6%, and the majority of those preferences would flow to Mirabella, McGowan said.

    “I think it’s going to be competitive and close,” she told Guardian Australia.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/mar/30/cathy-mcgowan-says-poll-shows-she-could-lose-seat-to-sophie-mirabella

  19. You just can’t trust the LNP with managing the economy.

    After calling the former carbon tax “a great big new tax” (which most people were compensated for), they now want to bring in Double Income Tax !

    Yes you’ll pay Federal Income Tax and State Income Tax if Turnbull gets back in.

    On top of all the other taxes and charges they have planned for after the election, everyone will be slugged an extra State Income Tax. That is EXCEPT the BIG BUSINESS end of town who are either paying NOTHING or if they are more honest (or unable to avoid it) they will pay less Company Tax.

    Can you believe such idiocy ???

    These are Turnbull’s innovations for the LNP government of incompetent fools planning their “new economics”!

    Just chuck them out !!!

  20. Very interested in possible responses to the CEDA report. Would Turnbull be bold enough to lift taxes in an election year? It would certainly communicate economic responsibility, but would the electorate be ready to accept bitter medicine at this time? And would the party accept it? On the other hand, how would it go down if Turnbull ignored the recommendations of a trusted advisory group?

    Is there any precedent for pre-election tax hikes?

  21. After listening to Malcolm today, the destruction of the NBN is a lot more explicable. He has a lazy mind with no f…ing idea.

  23. Keane: final paras

    [Turnbull said this morning that, somehow, South Australia and Tasmania would be protected. But how? There would need to be some mechanism for non-proportionally reallocating revenue from other states to those states, as currently happens with the GST. But imagine Mike Baird or Daniel Andrews trying to pitch a 1% income tax rise to their voters but having to admit a portion of it would go not to NSW or Victorian services but to Tasmanian or South Australian services.

    Whether South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill — who last November suggested a fixed allocation from existing income tax revenue, without any state capacity to vary income tax levels — has fully thought through the allocation issue isn’t clear. Once it does become clear, a state income tax might end up being a whole lot less palatable for some politicians. And a lot of voters.]

  26. This tweet sums up what is happening

    TonyLomas: LNP: If we can’t change the GST, we’ll change income tax. Anything to avoid enforcing multinational companies to pay their taxes. #auspol

  29. GUYTAUR – Yup, not one single Donor was prepared to take a bullet for the team (not even the ciggie companies), so this is what you get.

  30. [Parallel federal and state income taxation will at least provide a jobs boost in the tax avoidance industry.]

    I’m pretty sure we prefer to be called tax compliance and tax planning industry.

  31. As I said a few days ago, I am expecting a very public fist fight over the budget – probably with two competing budgets released on budget night. One by Turnbull and the RWNJ one released by Morrison. It’s beyond farcical.

    Tom.

  32. [After listening to Malcolm today, the destruction of the NBN is a lot more explicable. He has a lazy mind with no f…ing idea.]

    It is just all about Malcolm, he is Trump but without a personality.

  34. [abc730 ‏@abc730 · 18m18 minutes ago

    Would you like to see states & territories be given more control over income tax? @DanielAndrewsMP shares his thoughts on #abc730 tonight]

    I don’t think that ‘more control’ is at the base of this idea.

  35. I honestly thought that the ludicrous State-based income tax idea would disappear within hours, but the Australian has seized its opportunity to run with it (which is not a surprise given its genesis from the IPA and Abbott’s unloved commission of audit).

    Regardless of academic arguments about vertical fiscal imbalance and constitutional technicalities, there is no compelling practical reason to devolve these powers to the States. Well, there is one reason – to create thes type of “competitive federalism” which allows companies to shift assets and profits into low-tax jurisdictions without having to even leave the country.

    Forget the Double-Irish-with-a-Dutch-Sandwich tax arrangements – I look forward to the “Tassie-Devil-is-in-the-Detail” manoeuvre as our Southern cousins reinvent themselves as a tax haven while other States are forced to slash company tax rates and cut services to compete.

  38. What was the test for whether Cook invaded Australia?

    What are the tests?

    1. Heavily armed military vessel? Tick.

    2. Under command of a military officer? Tick

    3. Crew under military discipline? Tick

    4. Crew heavily armed and under military command and subject to military discipline when ashore? Tick

    5. Resources taken without permission? Tick

    6. Clear invitation to come ashore? No

    7. Clear signs of welcome from the owners? No

    8. Preparedness to use armed force? Tick

    9. Cook under active instructions to claim territory? Tick.

    10. Only known Aboriginal artefact, a fighting shield, directly linked to Cook has a bullet hole in it? Tick.

    11. Did Australia exist then? No. There were a series of Indigenous nations which covered the length and breadth of what is now Australia.

    Conclusion. Cook invaded a series of Aboriginal nations.

  42. LaborHerald: “The one thing you can be certain about Mr Turnbull’s tax plan is that Australians will be paying more tax.” @billshortenmp #auspol

  43. LaborHerald: “Mr Turnbull has basically washed his hands of education, walking away from school education” @billshortenmp #auspol

  44. mattRan: Great info from @theracv on Red Light cameras, how they work and what constitutes an offence. #TowardsZero https://t.co/MO7YvUFwde

    LaborHerald: “The last thing employers need, individuals need, is the complexity of all these different tax systems” @Bowenchris #auspol

  45. LaborHerald: “The Liberals are meant to believe in lower, simpler taxes. What they are proposing is higher, more complex taxes.” @Bowenchris #auspol

  47. LaborHerald: “How could any federal Treasurer possibly this this is a good idea?… Scott Morrison didn’t know.” @Bowenchris #auspol

  49. The Turnbull/Morrison tax idea is like this:

    Child to father: Time for my weekly pocket money.

    Father to child: Go see your mother.

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