Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January-March 2016

Newspoll breakdowns find the Turnbull government sinking in Victoria and South Australia; another poll suggests the government will have a hard time selling its budget; internal polling reportedly shows Bronwyn Bishop’s goose to be cooked in Mackellar; and a Liberal-versus-Nationals stoush looms with the retirement of Sharman Stone in Murray.

Probably not much doing in the land of polling over Easter, but The Australian as always takes advantage of the situation to unload Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates, providing breakdowns of the combined polling so far this year by state, gender and metro/regional. The results strongly suggest the Coalition’s recent downward movement has been driven by Victoria.

Also of note:

• The Australian has results from a privately commissioned poll by MediaReach which suggests Bronwyn Bishop would suffer a heavy defeat if Dick Smith ran against her as an independent in Mackellar, as he says he will do if she again wins Liberal preselection. The poll of 877 respondents showed Smith on 54% of the primary vote, compared with just 21% for Bishop. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said Bishop should retire, and she recorded a net favourability of minus 30% compared with plus 59% for Smith. A report in the Daily Telegraph this week said support for Bishop was rapidly waning ahead of the preselection vote on April 16.

• A poll conducted for Sky News by Omnipoll, a new venture involving former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy, suggests the federal government will have a difficult sell with its mooted company tax cut. Out of four budgetary options offered, this one was most favoured by 3% of respondents, compared with 46% for fixing the bottom line, 27% for spending more on education, and 25% for personal income tax cuts. Respondents also faced a forced choice question on whether Malcolm Turnbull had lived up to expectations and Prime Minister, which broke 62-38 against. A table at the Sydney Morning Herald features breakdowns by age and, interestingly and unusually, income. The results suggest the most indulgent view of Turnbull’s performance is taken by the young and the wealthy.

• An intra-Coalition stoush looms in the rural Victorian seat of Murray, following Sharman Stone’s retirement announcement on Saturday. Stone gained the seat for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd in 1996. Rebecca Urban of The Australian reports candidates for Liberal preselection will include Duncan McGauchie, “a Melbourne-based communications specialist and former policy adviser to previous Victorian premier Ted Baillieu”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,804 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January-March 2016”

Comments Page 29 of 37
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  1. NSW Government forced to pay legal costs of former Auburn Deputy Mayor Salim Mehajer

    HE MAY have lost his coveted position on Auburn Council but former deputy mayor Salim Mehajer scored a win on Wednesday with the NSW Government being forced to cough and pay his legal fees for a failed court case.

    Mr Mehajer was dubbed “Mr Teflon” by rival councillor Irene Simms because, she said, “nothing sticks”.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/courts-law/nsw-government-forced-to-pay-legal-costs-of-former-auburn-deputy-mayor-salim-mehajer/news-story/d0c289e4e672e86b606adfb390c40a93

  2. Malcolm Turnbull took Australia’s communications system back to the 20th Century

    Now he wants to take Australia’s taxation system back to the 19th Century

    What’s next? Perhaps a new edition of the Domesday Book?

    Enough is enough.

  4. [You are posting comments too quickly. Slow down.]

    No I wouldn’t, that’s not fair.

    [You are posting comments too quickly. Slow down.]

    I’m sorry, but I am not really.

    [You are posting comments too quickly. Slow down.]

    I’m not.

    [You are posting comments too quickly. Slow down.]

    Fuck off.

  8. What we’re witnessing is a classic example of someone trying to solve a problem, without the ability to comprehend the whole of it and realise that they can’t fit all their competing requirements in.

    To each flaw (a requirement not met) that is raised they propose a solution. The solution raises more flaws (some other requirement becomes unmet) and they propose more solutions. Those solutions have their own flaws. And so we go around and around.

    They are too incompetent to see the whole picture, they are too greedy, cowardly and/or unwilling to concede any requirement, and worse yet, they threw away half the toolkit before they even started.

  9. LaborHerald: “Labor has costed $105b over the next 10 years of improvement across the Budget bottom line. That’s unlike Mr Turnbull” @billshortenmp

  10. BW
    [Resources taken without permission? Tick]
    Well, to be argumentative, the resources werent taken until shortly after.
    To be placatory, sure, I can live with using the term ‘invade’. Or, how about an invasion reconnaissance party.

  11. Douglas and Milko @ 1179 –

    as well as contacting your MP and contacting the Aboriginal Legal Centre at Redfern as MTBW and guytaur suggested, might I suggest that you yourself or your friend mention to the lawyer the NSW Anti-Discrimination Act Part 2 (racial discrimination) Section 19 (provision of services), and that a complaint might be lodged with the Anti-Discrimination Board.

    http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/aa1977204/
    http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/aa1977204/s19.html
    http://www.antidiscrimination.justice.nsw.gov.au/

  12. How can Turnbull “allow” states to levy their own income tax? How can he control their rate of taxation? So how can he claim that taxpayers would be no worse off?

    Of course he can give no such assurances. If the amount of tax collected now is supposedly insufficient to fund schools and hospitals, how can they be properly funded if no more tax is collected under the double taxation idea? The whole thing is a nonsense.

    [Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has confirmed that he has proposed allowing states to levy income tax to assist in their funding needs.

    He said the federal government will reduce its income tax by an agreed percentage and allow state governments to levy an income tax equal to that amount.

    ‘There would be no increase in income tax from a taxpayer’s’ point of view – he or she would pay the same amount of income tax, but the states would be raising the money themselves,’ Mr Turnbull told reporters in Sydney on Wednesday.]

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/03/30/pm-confirms-state-income-tax-proposal.html#sthash.8hyeQSDJ.dpuf

  13. DN – As mentioned above: what happens to medicare? That will be basically over. I bet that will be the first qn asked in question time!

  14. Lucky I copied and saved this comment before it got spat out for being posted too quickly!

    How could any Liberal candidate in SA or Tasmania (or probably WA now) defend the proposal for state income taxes when they will as sure as night follows day lead to even further weakening of those states as the stronger states with proportionally higher total taxable incomes use tax rates for “competitive purposes”?

  15. CITIZEN – Later he says that, after the initial limited “adjustment” it will be up to the states to set their own income tax rates!
    Too clever by half

  19. citizen

    [If the amount of tax collected now is supposedly insufficient to fund schools and hospitals, how can they be properly funded if no more tax is collected under the double taxation idea? The whole thing is a nonsense.]

    Ping!

  20. If you are a Liberal PM proposing a tax collection change and the head of the Chartered Accountancy peak group sinks a steel capped boot into your proposal, you are in serious, serious trouble.

    Turnbull is in serious, serious trouble.

    How many people out there still think it unlikely Labor will win the next election?

  21. Andrew Kemp ‏@acskemp 1h1 hour ago

    BREAKING: Prime Minister seeks cooperation with Premiers to return income tax powers to states. #auspol

  22. Neil Mitchell was scathing on 3aw this morning about this state taxes thing. If it was a Labor government proposing it I would be very concerned right now for its longevity.

    All the early signs are that Mal might be biting off a bit more than he can chew with this one.

  25. ratsak

    Not an overstatement there. When natural allies of the LNP the accountants who make money helping people with taxes are condemning a tax policy of the LNP any in doubt should have them totally dispelled.

    No wonder 24 were so fast to get him on air. 👿

  26. [The Australian Capital Territory chief minister, Andrew Barr, said the proposal was the “next logical step” in changing the tax mix and eradicating “inefficient” state taxes.]

    I don’t think he’s on the same tram as Malcolm.

  27. I think Queensland would affected by tax changes – along with Tas, WA & SA. Victoria & NSW would probably come out ahead because of population density and economic diversity.

  28. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, March 30, 2016 at 3:10 pm | PERMALINK
    Andrew Kemp ‏@acskemp 1h1 hour ago

    BREAKING: Prime Minister seeks cooperation with Premiers to return income tax powers to states. #auspol]

    Surely the states are not going to be dumb enough to accept that hospital hand pass.

  31. [Simon Katich

    Posted Wednesday, March 30, 2016 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    BW

    Resources taken without permission? Tick

    Well, to be argumentative, the resources werent taken until shortly after.
    To be placatory, sure, I can live with using the term ‘invade’. Or, how about an invasion reconnaissance party.]

    Cook took water, fuel, plants, birds, fish, animals and tools. Each and every one of these is an economic resource.

    There were ownership rules about who could hunt or gather these resources. The rules including well-known and well-enforced boundaries of ownership.

    Many items had, in addition to their immediate practical value, religious significance. Some, almost certainly, had religious rules in terms of who could kill and/or gather them and then how they were prepared and shared.

    Cook was an invader who pillaged immediately after his armed conquests turned the owners into refugees.

    Australia’s First Nations were neither the first nor the last nations that Cook invaded. Several such Cook invasions did in fact end in open warfare and in deaths.

    IMO, in 1979 the Hawaians settled the conceptual argument about whether Cook was a serial invader in the most definitive way open to them.

  32. [Surely the states are not going to be dumb enough to accept that hospital hand pass.]

    If Turnbull wants to self immolate to give them more money they’ll be happy to bring the lighter.

  37. [SBSNews: Experts stunned by Turnbull’s ‘retrograde’ tax plan]

    A great many non-experts also stunned. Including the federal Treasurer.

  38. Given our love of renovation reality shows, I want to make one where the renovators move in against the will of the people who are living there (if you can call it “living” that is).

    Then they can talk about how wonderful the place is and how everyone should be grateful.

  40. [So once it’s clear their tax plan (or whatever it is) cannot be implemented, what next?]

    Surely you have enough patience to wait 24 hours. Probably won’t even be that long!

  41. [Looking forward to Bluey’s report today that’s for sure :D]

    Might we see the first negative point day?

    Definitely Team Red 7 – Team Blue 3, but today is such a fubar I’d take a point off Team Blue for gross stupidity.

  43. If NSW scuttles double taxation on Friday, then it’s back to the drawing board for Turnbull:

    [NSW not keen on PM’s tax proposal

    NSW Premier Mike Baird has reacted cautiously to the prime minister’s plan to allow states to levy income tax.

    “While I have historically argued for a share of income tax for the states, this has not involved increasing the income tax burden on Australian households, which already have among the highest income tax rates in the world,” Mr Baird said.

    “These matters can be considered in the longer term. What is required right now is a partnership between the Commonwealth and the states for the health and education services we need,” he said in a statement on Wednesday.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/nsw-not-keen-on-pms-tax-proposal/news-story/487cd9997dfddb2fd97e7418d0d3240a

  44. The most amazing thing about this double taxation brainfart by Mal (it appears Morrison was not even involved) is why on earth would you unveil such a massive shake-up of our federation in in the middle of an election campaign when you are 50-50 in the polls and still sinking?

    To me it looks like a last ditch attempt to crash through or crash – but the campaign has months to go yet! This is the kind of bizarre idiocy we expected from that imbecile Abbott. Everyone in the media assured us that Mal was cleverer than this!

    What the f#ck has happened? Has Mal got an inkling of an imminent attempt to depose him or something?

  46. BW
    1979? What did Hawaii do? A commemorative stamp?

    I am sticking with my earlier suggestion with a slight amendment,
    [Leader of an Invasion Reconnaissance Party, pillager, trespasser and wearer of silly pants]

  50. That 1% of PUP supporters must be really dyed in the wool fans of the big man.

    How come a virtually non-existent PUP still gets 1%?

    [TPP L/NP 50 (0) ALP 50 (0)
    Primaries L/NP 43(0) ALP 38(0) GRN 9(-1) PUP 1(0) OTH 10(+1)]

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