This evening’s Seven News has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll of around 3000 respondents, conducted last night in the immediate aftermath of the Prime Minister’s announcement on election timing. The poll shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 at the last poll on February 11; Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 60-40, well down on 74.9-25.1 in the last poll; and a slight edge in favour of the double dissolution ultimatum. More detail to follow. UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes are Coalition 46.6% (down 1.5%), Labor 34.4% (up 1.6%) and Greens 10.5% (up 0.4%). The double dissolution ultimatum has 39.3% support and 32.5% opposition.
Also out today was the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which was steady at 50-50 with both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, Labor by two to 38% – with the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions found 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set well before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know.
Another question found no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question asked what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggested strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.
Am I losing my grip, or did a poster previously known as Simon Katich morph into one now called Simon Kasich?
taylormade
I’d be very surprised if Bolt says to vote for Turnbull. He hates Malcolm waaaay more than anyone on PB.
EGT
[the French in particular are notorious for a complete lack of support for new immigrants, leading in particular to high rates of criminality in the second generation]
I imagine that is a new immigrant has no supports, they will be forced to gravitate to effectively beg for survival from their (former) countrymen and so will form an enclave. Similar to countries that just toss you out of prison onto the street and wonder why you reoffend.
Said after Turnbull pulled the plug on the GST that the relationship between Turnbull and Morrison was terminal.
Morrison is out of his depth. Tax policy taken off him and given to Parkinson, a bureaucrat dumped by Abbott.
Not even in the loop on DD.
He’s a dead man walking. And probably knows it. But Turnbull cant dump him before the election.
Toxic..this wont end well. Can see Morrison spitting the dummy and resigning to the back bench before his reputation is trashed further by Turnbull. Perhaps playing a long game as the next LNP leader.
WWP@897
I don’t understand why a thinking ALP strategist would confront and denigrate Greens voters and risk losing their preferences.
The QLD council elections shows all the ALP BS ranting at the Greens in the Senate won them no votes.
I don’t know about ‘harvesting Green prefs’ but Di Natale virtually parroted a whole raft of ALP policies when he made his speech after the PM decided to bring back the parlt next month.
As I watched/listened I thought: what, has he suddenly decided to partner the ALP?
If the Greens are basically going to sing from the same song sheet as the ALP … I’d suggest the bulk of Greens are going to notice the similarities and follow that to the logical voting conclusion.
Prettyone @854:
[I don’t go for Labor’s leftish social policies and I think Bill Shorten can go too far left on that. I wish he wouldn’t. My opinion is he needs to be more to the centre to gather voters who would like to change voting from Libs to Labor.]
In what ways are Labor’s policies “too far left” on the social front?
I would guess Jones over Bolt. Jones did campaign against the Newman Qld state government (on his radio program broadcast into Qld).
Bolt might complain on his blog, but I could never see him admitting to voting for an ex union official.
Fulvio S
You are not losing your grip
I think Scott Morrison has gone the way of his predecessor Joe Hockey, a mediocrity promoted way above his talent. How did he get so far? It’s easy to shine when all you have to do is beat up on the helpless, to the cheers of the bigoted and the fearful, without having to bother about accountability.
[The QLD council elections shows all the ALP BS ranting at the Greens in the Senate won them no votes.]
No it doesn’t’ show that at all but like those ridiculous lies that disenfranchising 25% of the population is an improvement in democracy, you keep telling yourself that if it is what rocks your boat.
[I don’t understand why a thinking ALP strategist would confront and denigrate Greens voters and risk losing their preferences.]
Do you have examples of that happening. Maybe Adam did it a bit here, but I don’t think any of the rest of us are ALP strategists. I think mainly the ALP confronts the greens who are trying to take seats from them. I don’t know how much illegal drugs you use but it would have to be lots to think the ALP should lie back and think of windmills.
By the way the greens should be delighted that Browse fell over today, and for the foreseeable future the hydrocarbons will stay in the ground. What I’d like to know is when you economy killing idiots are going to pour $50 billion of investment into Western Australia?
ICanCU
I do not believe the Bris council election had ANYTHING to do with what happened in the senate.
If it did, we would have seen more polling movement than we did.
Yeah, what WWP said.
From my own experience, approval or disapproval of the party which is in government in the State might impact on local government votes, but just as we have Labor in government in the States when there’s a Liberal federal government (and vice versa) how people vote in a local government contest (however large) is no indication of their intentions federally.
Bolt has already said he would be happy to see Turnbull fail to rid the Liberals of the Turnbull influence.
ICanCU@905
I don’t want their preferences, I want their primary vote.
Greens voting is a curable condition.
[ The occasional bucket of cold water is justified.
Labor winning is difficult just based on history. ]
I’m with Master Oogway on this.
[ Yesterday is history,
tomorrow is a mystery,
but today is a gift.
That is why it is called the present. ]
MalPm and his Merry Band have been giving us quite a few presents of late. 🙂
Tories shall be fought.
[I think Scott Morrison has gone the way of his predecessor Joe Hockey, a mediocrity promoted way above his talent.]
This, above all, is what is so wrong with the Libs right now. Almost all of their front bench are pedestrian to say the least … many are downright incompetent (and I am not saying that because I am an ALP stalwart – I do believe in credit where it is due).
Morrison clearly speaks gibberish because he simply does NOT understand the basics of his portfolio.
Many of the front bench are attack dogs – fine if you put the words in their mouths but incapable of independent thinking. Morrison, Dutton, Pyne, Joyce, Brandis are all way out of their depths. They might understand politics, per se, but have absolutely no idea about political administration.
I can think of four who are competent (though I disagree with their politcal standpoint) Payne, Bishop, Keenan, Cormann (who I despise) and you can probably add Robb but he’s leaving (that said … he finalised FTTs that had been in the works a long time.
First Dog on pizza with pineapple (continuity and change).
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2016/mar/23/what-the-people-of-australia-need-is-continuity-and-also-change-but-with-continuity
[906
jenauthor
I don’t know about ‘harvesting Green prefs’ but Di Natale virtually parroted a whole raft of ALP policies when he made his speech after the PM decided to bring back the parlt next month.
As I watched/listened I thought: what, has he suddenly decided to partner the ALP?
If the Greens are basically going to sing from the same song sheet as the ALP … I’d suggest the bulk of Greens are going to notice the similarities and follow that to the logical voting conclusion.]
Labor’s themes are consistently popular with voters. Not only are they popular, voters identify them as Labor-sourced. The G’s are trying to assure voters that they are Labor-composites. This is rubbish of course. The Greens are not Labor in any way, shape or form. This is purely a device used by the G’s to licence Labor-attached voters to vote Green.
It is another instance of G’s soliciting votes from among the Labor-leaning – votes the G’s will then use to try to defeat Labor candidates.
The G’s are absolutely not to be trusted.
[MalPm and his Merry Band have been giving us quite a few presents of late. :)]
It’s like an ATM that won’t stop dispensing cash, even though you haven’t put your card in. You think they will work it out soon and stop it. Maybe they will and maybe they won’t. But meanwhile enjoy. And they won’t get back what they lost.
[Now Rudd actually had a huge amount of policy substance]
Where Dubya had “truthiness”, Rudd(ya) had “policyness”
There was no coherence behind it, no solid core: it was instead just Rudd (the smartest guy in the room) deigning to turn his attention (five minutes at a time) to whatever required some “policy” at the time.
[There was no coherence behind it, no solid core: it was instead just Rudd (the smartest guy in the room) deigning to turn his attention (five minutes at a time) to whatever required some “policy” at the time.]
You are so right that CPRS, that response to the GFC, best in the world for effectiveness and value, NBN, yeah he was an empty vessel, no wait it isn’t him …
Night all
Health, education, industrial relations, .. Rudd really had no policy at all. You need to think more and type a lot lot less.
The greens are always saying that if you shut down fossil fuels there will be replacement investment, I’d like them to express where and what private enterprises will be investing 50 billion in WA over the next 5 years.
[ sprocket_
Oh dear…
The NSW Liberal party has been slammed by election funding authorities for “concealing” the identities of illegal major donors before the 2011 election that brought it to power, including via the secretive Free Enterprise Foundation. ]
Can you imagine the outcry from the media if this had anything to do with the ALP??
Some people were wondering what the HoR would actually have to do when they get recalled?? I’d think asking the PM and any senior Libs from NSW present what thier position is on this matter may get a run?? Perhaps he should have various people step aside until this is resolved??
And perhaps the Senate may graciously give Uncle Arfur Sinodinos some time, as much as he needs, or even more if his memory is dicky, to explain what his involvement was and take questions ??
[Can you imagine the outcry from the media if this had anything to do with the ALP??]
Yes it would be massive.
Bemused @915:
[I don’t want their preferences, I want their primary vote.]
And you think that an unending stream of personal abuse will get you that. Incredible!
[Greens voting is a curable condition.]
More personal abuse. See above.
E. G. Theodore@921
Examples please?
The response to the GFC was masterful and people like Ken Henry have given full credit to Rudd for that.
Lib voters seem to support the player, Labor voters seem to support the team and Greens voters support the game. Loyalty involves compromise.
I guess that means that Swinging voters support the result.
[Can you imagine the outcry from the media if this had anything to do with the ALP??]
Right up Dyson Heydon’s alley for a Royal Commission dontcha think folks?
[917
jenauthor
I can think of four who are competent (though I disagree with their politcal standpoint) Payne, Bishop, Keenan, Cormann (who I despise)…]
You’ve named 3 from WA. I would argue that WA has been particularly ill-served by Federal Liberals in the last 20-25 years. It’s fundamentally time WA changed its contingent. I think we’d find most WA voters would agree with that proposition were they asked.
Imacca@926, I wonder how much the front bench are looking forward to question time in the recall.
They looked a bit worn out last time.
I bet the HoR sittings are cut to a minimum.
Matt@928
That’s abuse???
You poor precious petal.
Yes, Green voting is curable. The cure is education.
Goodnight, victoria! I’m off too! 🙂
However, my parting comment relates to everyonefrom ICanCU to dtt who keep rabbiting on about The Greens success in the Brisbane Council Elections.
As Ben Raue from the Tallyroom said, The Greens vote improved because they had more candidates standing than last time in more wards.
Simple. As. That.
That they got a Councillor elected at last was a bonus. But one? That’ll change Brisbane. Not.
A B@930
Yes, the Greens play a kind of hide and seek with their policies. 😀
[The response to the GFC was masterful and people like Ken Henry have given full credit to Rudd for that.]
Rudd at his best. I note that not even his strongest opponents afterwards have belittled his role – although his economic cabinet did work as a team.
Now can we please bring this RGR truce violation to an end and get back to the real destroyers of this nation? And I mean Turncoat and the clown circus he took from Abbott with the knifing in the back.
@922
CPRS – abandoned when the going got tough and undermined before that by an attempt to wedge Turnbull
NBN – proudly claimed as being something he’d thought up on the back of a napkin whilst flying back from Tasmania. It was in fact the approach long advocated by the sector (and in particular Simon Hackett) and claiming to have (in a stroke of genius) come up with it in this way opened it to trivialisation and attack in a way from which it never recovered. Furthermore the lack of deep understanding meant that when the ACCC undermined the NBN with their (pro-duopoly) POP ruling there was no-one there to tell them where to shove it.
GFC – was an emergency and the response (which I fully support) was not a policy matter in the normal sense. The policy opportunity in that case was to correct the deliberate misrepresentation of fiscal policy perpetrated by Howard and Costello, and this opportunity was missed (e.g. we instead had Swan with his idiotic surplus targets)
Voters who fall for Green blandishments have been tricked. The trick consists of the suggestion that the Greens are Labor+…that by voting Green, people will get the same as Labor plus an extra something for nothing. This is a con. Every time voters fall for this they make it easier for the LNP to win. By taking votes away from Labor, the G’s subtract from the effort required to defeat the conservatives.
WWP @ 911
Sorry I was under the impression the recent endless tirade by ALP Senators denigrating the Greens naïveté etc was part of an ALP strategy to lose Green preferences. If there was another point to this exercise it failed to cut through. You seem fixated on illegal drugs .. Just an observation…
Question@306
There does seem to be a whiff of advantage to the Coalition in the way boundaries line up at present, though nothing like the advantage to Labor in SA at state level. Labor did get some benefit from sophomore effect in 2010 (this was discussed on some other thread here a month or so back) and without it 50:50 would have been a clear loss.
[938
E. G. Theodore
GFC – was an emergency and the response (which I fully support) was not a policy matter in the normal sense. The policy opportunity in that case was to correct the deliberate misrepresentation of fiscal policy perpetrated by Howard and Costello, and this opportunity was missed..]
Indeed.
E. G. Theodore@938
GFC – no response required.
CPRS – would have needed either Libs onside or ALL of the Greens and cross-benchers including Fielding. Chose to negotiate with Libs as the easier course plus more likely to entrench the policy. Not unreasonable under the circumstances.
NBN – No politician could claim to have come up with it in a technical sense, but Conroy and Rudd picked up the technical concepts and ran with it. Which politicin do you give credit to?
ICanCU@940
Yes, we want primary votes.
What better way to achieve this than to expose the fraudulent Greens.
[Sorry I was under the impression the recent endless tirade by ALP Senators denigrating the Greens naïveté etc was part of an ALP strategy to lose Green preferences. If there was another point to this exercise it failed to cut through. You seem fixated on illegal drugs .. Just an observation…]
So the tirades weren’t against green voters but greens senators who were supporting the Turnbull Govt, helping them setup a DD and remove the opportunity for people to vote for minor parties and all because the greens, like the liberals think this change is in their advantage. They should have been abused. But it isn’t the greens voters who were being abused by labor, it is the 25% the Libs and Greens were trying to disenfranchise that Labor was supporting, possibly to its own detriment, now that is impressive self sacrifice that should have had any intelligent thinking sober green supporter switch sides.
Briefly @939
There is a reason people like me who had only ever voted ALP have joined the. Greens. And it wasn’t the drugs. Maybe there are things about the ALP and Liberal parties that no longer appeal and need to be fixed. More grassroots democracy would be a good start.
Blaming Greens for ALP losing is a bit embarrassing for someone of your aptitude.
There may well be a number of liberal voters putting Greens first this election and I guess the ALP hate a thon may have helped with that because liberals may think if the ALP hate them they must be ok. Only strategy I can think of?
So as for my $50 billion question, i can only conclude that there is no replacement $50 billion investment in WA, no replacement jobs, and noone who cares about their job or needs their job to pay a mortgage should vote green.
[Am I losing my grip, or did a poster previously known as Simon Katich morph into one now called Simon Kasich?]
I noticed that this morning, so no, it isn’t just you.
ICanCU@946
Don’t confuse pity with hate.
Kevin Bonham @ 941: Electoral analysis isn’t normally a source of belly laughs, but I’m always teetering on the edge of one when someone mentions the bias against the coalition in South Australia.
Has there ever been a more ill-considered and misconceived piece of electoral reform in Australia than the inclusion of the “fairness” clause in the South Australian constitution? It’s a monument to ignorance of how single member constituencies work and need to be analysed.
After all these years it still amazes me how many politicians don’t really understand the systems that put them in place (though there are of course exceptions, including most of the Tasmanians). The South Australian Liberals are like tortoises on top of a fence post.