ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A poll conducted immediately after yesterday’s election timing announcement from the Prime Minister shows the Coalition retaining a modest lead, while an earlier poll from Essential Research has the parties still locked together at 50-50.

This evening’s Seven News has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll of around 3000 respondents, conducted last night in the immediate aftermath of the Prime Minister’s announcement on election timing. The poll shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 at the last poll on February 11; Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 60-40, well down on 74.9-25.1 in the last poll; and a slight edge in favour of the double dissolution ultimatum. More detail to follow. UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes are Coalition 46.6% (down 1.5%), Labor 34.4% (up 1.6%) and Greens 10.5% (up 0.4%). The double dissolution ultimatum has 39.3% support and 32.5% opposition.

Also out today was the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which was steady at 50-50 with both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, Labor by two to 38% – with the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions found 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set well before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know.

Another question found no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question asked what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggested strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

982 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. IcanCU
    Yes the Greens did amazingly well in Pullenvale, Paddington and Walter Taylor – all mostly in Ryan federal electorate.

    Of couirse the ALP MUST harvest Green preferences. If they do not they will be out of office for generations. People like bemused are on this issue the ememy of Labor.

    Bemused just cannot accept that there is 7-15% of the electorate who are to the left of ther ALP. He wants the good old days of the 70s/80s back, when the ALP left carried the social conscience of the middle classes, but dwelled happily enough within the family home, even if dominated by and regularly quarelling with the pragmatic right. The party that swept to power in 1975 was a broad church. Jim Cairns spoke for the antiwar activists, Gough for the socially progressive but still qite conservative, and a myriad of unionists for the needs of working people.

    The Ministry of the Whitlam governent was much more diverse than our current shadow ministry. With just 4 lawyers, these wwere outnumbered by other professionals, 3 doctors, 1 accountant, 3 teachers, 2 policemen, 2 public servants and 2 small businessmen. In a cabinet of 27 only 6 had ever held paid positions with a union. It was a cabinet drawn from working class kids and not those of privelege with only 1 (Gough) seemed to have had elite school education and only a surprisingly small number in the local catholic schools (5-6 at most).

    Perhaps not surprisingly this ALP, lead by socially progressive and politically aware progressives attracted the educated baby boomers, especially in the turbulence of the Conscription era, the Vietnam war and the lingering fear of nuclear holicaust.

    However somewhere in the 90s the ALP became less diverse

  2. [ Right up Dyson Heydon’s alley for a Royal Commission dontcha think folks? ]

    April 18, 2016, HoR QT:……

    [ My question is to the Prime minister.

    Given the recent FINDING by the NSW electoral commission regarding Senator Sinodinos’ involvement in laundering of funds from prohibited donors, will the Prime Minister instruct him to stand aside as a Cabinet Secretary?? Or do we need a Royal Commission to get to the heart of apparently corrupt funding arrangements in the Liberal Party?? ]

    Or something like that?? 🙂

  3. Theodore,

    I suggest you go back and actually research the legislation passed under Rudd. There was a lot of good policy being done. That included over a year of work prior to the NBN FTTP announcement. Rudd for better or worse was a technocrat and did actually listen to experts and much of his work paid off years later in a raft of new initiatives and legislation under Gillard.

    Rudd was subject to the most determined attack by Murdoch and that shows up in your dismissal. Go look into the detail. He did a lot of good work on many things, despite the criminal misrepresentation of some of the media and despite the obstruction of the Senate in the earlier part of his term.

  4. dtt,

    You can’t “harvest” Greens preferences. You CAN talk to green voters sensibly and convince them that if they vote green they should never second preference the Liberals. You CAN acknowledge that there is a lot of sense in a lot of greens policies and point to how Labor shares similar aspirations.

  5. Briefly @932: If that we were so, Labor would be benefiting from a large two-party-preferred swing at the Federal level in the polling. So far, all I’m seeing is a (gratifyingly large) swing at the State level.

  6. cud chewer @955: You can certainly do both; you can even make the argument that it’s better to be on the left fringe of a large Party than to be in the middle of a much smaller one. None of that would I begrudge (nor would most Greens voters) – but the hyperbolic vitriol constantly directed at the Greens from many Labor supporters (inc. many here, but by no means all!) simply cheeses us off.

  7. By the way I have the same view to Michael@950 of the whole SA “fairness” thing. If a party keeps winning the 2PP but losing the election (in a system that is neither malapportioned nor gerrymandered) then either it is campaigning incompetently or else it needs to argue for a wholesale change to the electoral system.

  8. you have left out Roy Morgan which had labor in front a little. how much are they paying you and is it worth the damage it is doing to your reputation

  9. Cud

    Yes I accept that you do not harvest green preferences. You need to make them WANT to preference the ALP.

    Those like Bemused and Briefly are stuck in a 1983 time warp. The ALP is the same as in Whitlam’s time.

    A few minutes ago I researched the backgrounds of the Whitlam ministry. What stuck me was a comment about Kim Beazley senior. This promising young man did NOT progress because his views on foreign policy and links with the USA were too far to the right. Whitlam got the job. 30 years later, his son, known to share his fathers views on most such matters, became leader.

  10. bemused if you are still around

    I do not think you quite realise how offensive and patronising you can be. Consider this a friendly comment for your personal education.

    Think about how patronising a comment such as “voting greens is curable” or “can be educated” really are. You can get away with friendly banter of theat kind with David WH because he is a gentleman and you have established a rapport of good will. Where this does NOT exist your comments are simply offensive and patronising.

    Just imagine if a saner liberal such as ModLib said the same to you eg voting ALP is curable. You would be enraged.

    The reality is that everyone has a right to vote the way they choose and in a way that best fits their ideological committment or their self interest.

    Like it or not Greens are no longer little lost ALP voters just begging to be invited back home. Every time that you or other ALP members whether at a polling booth or a blog site such as this abuse green members, the chance of any return or even comfortable alliance falls away.

    Now I spent much time working the hustings last week. I made every effort to be pleasant to Greens and to Liberals. Now with one Green worker this was very hard. With a second it was a comfortable and with a third it was a positive priviledge. Most of the Liberals in my neck of the woods are bascially nice people too. Being seen to be pleasant, intelligent and caring is to the benefit of the ALP. Being rude just loses us support and preferences. I understand that Young Labor people, still hot with passion can be rude and tribalistic, but I expect people to grow out of this by 30.

  11. C@tmomma, 935

    [As Ben Raue from the Tallyroom said, The Greens vote improved because they had more candidates standing than last time in more wards.

    Simple. As. That]

    While this is true (and is the result of about 1/2 of the swing), this is not the entire story – in Antony Green’s commentary section on the BCC election on the ABC website, he states:

    [22/03/2016 11:41:09 AM – A comment on the Green vote. The Greens have polled 13.7%, +5.2 compared to 2012. In the wards contested by the Greens in 2012, the vote is 15.6%, up 2.3. The Greens have polled 9.5% in the wards not contested in 2012.]

    This 2.3% increase is the main focus here, particularly where it was located within Brisbane. Along with The Gabba, there were concentrated Greens swings in Paddington (in which the Greens were in the final count against the Liberals and managed to shave 5% off their previous 2PP result, to 57%) as well as Pullenvale, which, despite being a relatively safe Lib seat, had a 13% swing to the Greens on PV. Walter Taylor also had a strong Greens vote, with a 6% swing on TPP, and Central had the Greens above 20% for the first time.

    The Greens’ successes in this election are not successes just because they increased their vote – it’s where they increased there vote, and how they can manage to target these seats in the future (Paddington, probably, is the best bet).

    [That they got a Councillor elected at last was a bonus. But one? That’ll change Brisbane. Not.]

    I don’t particularly like the argument of “one person not aligned to a major party won’t do anything” – this is an argument against (re)electing independents against toxic local members or candidates, such as McGowan or Windsor. People should always vote on who they believe will do their best job representing them and their beliefs on how the country/state/city should be governed. If the people of The Gabba thought that it would better off be Jonathan Sri over Nicole Lessio or Sean Jacobs, then Sri will be providing their voice to a parliament, much like independents and other nonmajor parties do. Sri ran a campaign on issues, those issues resonated, and he was elected. If the people voting wanted to “get something done”, arguably they should have elected an LNP representative, considering they hold the majority and can shoehorn the likes of a budget etc through parliament, not something that the ALP is able to do in its current state.

  12. Last election the GGs reason for existing was to kill off the NBN. This time the NBN doesn’t matter anymore because cable is dead anyway.

  13. Matt@958
    [ cud chewer @955: You can certainly do both; you can even make the argument that it’s better to be on the left fringe of a large Party than to be in the middle of a much smaller one. None of that would I begrudge (nor would most Greens voters) – but the hyperbolic vitriol constantly directed at the Greens from many Labor supporters (inc. many here, but by no means all!) simply cheeses us off. ]

    I may be grumpy, having been at my place of work until 9pm Sydney time, telling prospective science students that of course it is worth doing a science degree in Australia, right now.

    And coming home to comment on a research proposal that one of my new, very, very bright research students has put together (it was really, really good, an example of the amazing talent that Oz has in its nascent scientists), and then working on my grant request to the Australian Research Council, due in two weeks, but needing to be circulated to my collaborators tonight, for comment before the Easter break. Yes, I am a bit grumpy.

    And, Matt, you have the cheek to tell me that if I do not somehow appease the Greens by doing something, something (just consider, that maybe I am too tired from actually trying to promote science – in my case physics, and yes, us physicists are passionate and evangelical in trying to convince the community that climate change is real, and that evidence-based action will benefit us all) to remember what it is that I need to do to appease you, so that you will not then you will throw me and my worthy students to the wolves because you will consider that we have “simply cheese[d you] off”

    At this stage, I just want to work out what us mere mortals can do to work with the Greens to ensure the defeat of the coalition. Because, that will give my students a future. And yes, I am an active member of the Labor party, and a life-long progressive.

    So, Matt and others, just give me what you want us progressives who are not members of the Greens to do to get your preferences – and do not forget that there are other progressive parties than the Greens and Labor. Dot point format is fine.

    Your answering this question may save my fantastic postgrad students from the tsunami of anti-science that will overwhelm Australia of the LNP are reelected.

  14. Hi William,

    A quick question. My Crikey subscription is up for renewal, and in the past I have subscribed through the Pollbludger group sub. Can we do this for 2016? Money is a bit tight in our neck of the woods at the moment.

  15. Douglas and Milko @970:

    [I may be grumpy, having been at my place of work until 9pm Sydney time, telling prospective science students that of course it is worth doing a science degree in Australia, right now.

    And coming home to comment on a research proposal that one of my new, very, very bright research students has put together (it was really, really good, an example of the amazing talent that Oz has in its nascent scientists), and then working on my grant request to the Australian Research Council, due in two weeks, but needing to be circulated to my collaborators tonight, for comment before the Easter break. Yes, I am a bit grumpy.]

    OK, got it. I’ve put in time in the salt mines of academia (sessional tutoring), so I know what it’s like. Although I was tutoring undergrads, so it was less “research proposals” and more “mark this stack of 100+ essays by Monday”.

    [And, Matt, you have the cheek to tell me that if I do not somehow appease the Greens by doing something, something (just consider, that maybe I am too tired from actually trying to promote science – in my case physics, and yes, us physicists are passionate and evangelical in trying to convince the community that climate change is real, and that evidence-based action will benefit us all) to remember what it is that I need to do to appease you, so that you will not then you will throw me and my worthy students to the wolves because you will consider that we have “simply cheese[d you] off”]

    OK….what the fuck? What part of cutting back on the bashing did you fail to understand?

    [At this stage, I just want to work out what us mere mortals can do to work with the Greens to ensure the defeat of the coalition. Because, that will give my students a future. And yes, I am an active member of the Labor party, and a life-long progressive.

    So, Matt and others, just give me what you want us progressives who are not members of the Greens to do to get your preferences – and do not forget that there are other progressive parties than the Greens and Labor. Dot point format is fine.

    Your answering this question may save my fantastic postgrad students from the tsunami of anti-science that will overwhelm Australia of the LNP are reelected.]

    So…your response to a request to cut back on the hyperbolic vitriol is to sling more hyperbolic vitriol, this time with a lovely little side-dish of condescension and a sprinkle of guilt-tripping on top.

    Wow. Just wow. You and the other Greens-bashers here are driving the people who should be your allies against the Fiberals away. And apparently, you don’t even realize why. Incredible.

  16. Matt,
    I was a Green voter in the past, actively leafletting , etc., for many years but changed to Labor when the danger of Abbott’s mob became evident. I fought to keep the destructive LNP out and will continue to do so. I still hold the same progressive views of old, and in an ideal world would still be a Green but the need for tough pragmatism is too urgent…..the risk of Abbott’s destruction still looms large and It is time to bring out the BFGs with all progressives working together. I have found the recent Greens vs Labor discussions alarming and mutually destructive. While there are the usual curmudgeons who attack anyone who disagrees with their narrow view, there are others who share many of the values of the Greens. Not unlike a child in a mixed marriage, I feel torn.

  17. Matt like it or not; just as Labor needs Green preferences; the Greens need Labor preferences; but don’t worry if you can’t see it; your leader seems to have failed to understand also.

    Given that the Greens are doing their best to become a main stream party I am very curious as to why you believe the other parties should not fight back.

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Martin says the ABCC is a poor base to build an election on.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/restoring-the-abcc-a-poor-foundation-for-malcolm-turnbull-to-build-an-election-on-20160322-gnox7n.html
    The forthcoming election and the ongoing attacks on unions and workers.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-forthcoming-australian-election-and-the-ongoing-attacks-on-unions-and-workers,8806
    One for Google – A fascinating look at who’s in and not in Turnbull’s inner circle.
    /national-affairs/federal-election-2016-turnbulls-inner-circle-a-tight-fit/news-story/38de219fd62d55c9c87d5fe4a73c8db8
    And a similar story from Phil Coorey. It’s chaotic he says. (more Google work needed)
    /news/politics/malcolm-turnbulls-inner-circle-does-not-appear-to-include-scott-morrison-20160321-gno1ln
    Michelle Grattan reckons Morrison’s embarrassment of budget timing was of his own doing.
    https://theconversation.com/morrisons-embarrassment-over-budget-timing-was-more-his-fault-than-turnbulls-56739
    Alan Austin – Turnbull’s promises don’t match economic reality.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/03/23/turnbull-promises-dont-match-policy-reality/
    Mike Baird is prepared to spend his political capital.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-premier-mike-baird–im-determined-to-stay-as-long-as-i-possibly-can-20160323-gnp9ip.html
    “View from the Street” advocates research to find wind farm ghosts. And he takes aim at “Continuity with Change”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-lets-blow-more-money-searching-for-wind-turbine-ghosts-20160323-gnpc73.html
    Gee we have some dills as parliamentary representatives!
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/23/wind-power-senators-want-moratorium-on-turbines-until-health-studies-conclude
    Royal Commission anyone? Come on down Arfur!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-liberals-concealed-illegal-donors-before-2011-election-win-20160323-gnpsn6.html
    Why Belgium has a serious problem with terrorism.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-belgium-has-a-serious-problem-with-terrorism-20160322-gnp0fu.html
    Rapaciousness: noun. Sydney Airport Authority.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-airport-flies-high-on-fat-profit-margins-for-car-parking-and-airline-fees-20160323-gnpl1j.html

  19. Section 2 . . .

    I’ve been to one of these performances and there is no doubt they are a thorough lift from the Fawlty Towers concept, characters and scripts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/stage/john-cleese-may-sue-australian-company-behind-utterly-shameless-fawlty-towers-ripoff-20160323-gnp6za.html
    Looks like the states may have been stared down over the education funding cuts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/states-buckle-on-federal-schools-funding-cuts-20160323-gnpeew.html
    The Timbercorp hardship scheme is on the verge of collapse.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/timbercorp-hardship-scheme-on-verge-of-collapse-as-advocate-threatens-to-quit-20160322-gnon85.html
    Kupper was certainly guilty of poor judgement.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/funke-kupper-guilty-of-poor-judgement-20160323-gnph46.html
    Here’s a message to the whingeing Coles boss. You don’t HAVE to open on Sundays!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/coles-boss-calls-for-ir-rethink-20160323-gnpjjo.html
    The head of Dow Chemicals says that with Trump the US could be heading for a Kardishian presidency.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/dow-chemicals-chief-andrew-liveris-warns-on-trumps-kardashian-presidency-20160322-gnotuu.html
    Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have gone “full cavemen”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/23/donald-trump-ted-cruz-full-caveman-wives-honor-presidential-campaign

  20. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir – Stop the boasts

    David Pope with an Easter massage. Look at the Trojan Horse and the Senate guard!

    Ron Tandberg hints that Morrison might turn the tables.

    John Spooner with a metaphor of the issues facing the print media.

    Mark Knight with Tintin in Brussels.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/6b855c61633ab8a2e7b2ccd802031a4a?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    David Rowe sums up the Brussels attacks.

  21. Malcolm Turnbull didn’t really say much last night in his Foreign Policy speech at The Lowy Institute that we here on Pollbludger couldn’t have surmised from the global situation.

    But he did say it in his best ‘Father Knows Best’ voice. 😉

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