An above-trend result for the Coalition from Ipsos this week has halted the long run of momentum to Labor in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – although it hasn’t reversed it, partly thanks to a stonger result for Labor from Essential Research. Technically there has been movement in Labor’s favour for the seventh week in a row, but the movement on this occasion was inside 0.05%. Perhaps not surprisingly, this has not resulted in any change on the seat projection. The Ipsos poll also provided leadership ratings which, as BludgerTrack interprets them, were perfectly in line with an overall trend that shows Malcolm Turnbull in freefall, and Bill Shorten improving modestly.
Preselection bits:
• The latest federal MP to announce their retirement is Teresa Gambaro, who held the seat of Petrie for the Liberals through the Howard years, then made a comeback in the seat of Brisbane in 2010. Gambaro said she wished to spend more time with her family, but unnamed party sources complained to the media that Gambaro was engaging in a “dummy spit” over her failure to win promotion in recent reshuffles, and that the late hour of her announcement meant she was “all but handing it to Labor”. There was a short-lived flurry of speculation that the preselection might be contested by former Premier Campbell Newman, after his biographer, former Cairns state MP Gavin King, told ABC Radio he was “weighing it up”. However, Newman promptly knocked the idea on the head, and Cameron Adfield of Fairfax reports the preselection is likely to go to National Retail Association chief executive Trevor Evans, who was talked out of pursuing a challenge against Gambaro last year by then Prime Minister Tony Abbott. It is also expected that Robert Cavallucci, who won the state seat of Brisbane Central in 2012 and lost it again in 2015, will nominate.
• Labor’s candidate to succeed Melissa Parke in Fremantle is Chris Brown, whose CV as listed in The Australian includes 29 years as a wharfie, ten months as an organiser for the Maritime Union of Australia, and ownership of small businesses in Fremantle. Brown’s victory was owed to factional arrangements that secured him overwhelming support in the 75% of the vote determined at head office, including all but unanimous support from the union delegates who account for half the overall vote. This easily negated his 155-110 defeat in the local party ballot at the hands of Josh Wilson, the chief-of-staff to Melissa Parke and deputy mayor of Fremantle. A full account of the results is provided by Gareth Parker of The West Australian.
• Joe Kelly of The Australian reports that New South Wales Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells faces a threat to her preselection from Jim Molan, a former senior army officer who was heavily involved in the government’s efforts against unauthorised boat arrivals. Fierravanti-Wells is said to have lost support among the Right for telling journalist Niki Savva she had confronted then Prime Minister Tony Abbott over perceptions he was having an affair with his chief-of-staff, Peta Credlin. It was earlier reported that factional moderates were organising a challenge by Richard Shields, a former ministerial adviser and manager with the Insurance Council of Australia, but the threat appeared to subside when Fierravanti-Wells was appointed to the ministry.
• The Liberal preselection for Bronwyn Bishop’s seat of Mackellar has been set for April 16.
Ian MacFarlane giving his valedictory in the senate is bemoaning the lack of bipartisanship and the shallowness of politics and the media. So who do you quote in support? Chris fuggin Kenny of course!
[Macfarlane quotes The Australian’s Chris Kenny in arguing that shallow politics and shallow journalism is turning politics into a sideshow. And with that, he wishes Malcolm Turnbull all the best in winning the coming election.]
Ian and self awareness have been estranged for some time. The divorce papers will come through soon.
Pegasus @ 79,
Get me the vomit bucket! I’ve overdosed on Green twee!
jenauthor, I have been paying a lot of attention to Bill Shorten recently, given that I want a Labor government by the end of this year. I just haven’t been doing it with the same unquestioningly adoring eye that you have.
[With regard to the effects test proposed by the government some questions please]
Doyley, so little of the nitty gritty is out there I don’t think the Libs know exactly what their policy is yet.
Malcolm will be extremely passionate about the issue until the actual can of worms of drafting the legislation is opened.
lizzie @ 84,
So Teh Greens can grandstand for an hour, show their sympathetic side to the LGBTQI community, abuse the Labor Party, package it up and put it out on social media to propagandise with, natch.
POSS
I don’t think it’s what Bill is saying as much as his stronger tone and his confident smiles. He also has some good policy decisions to work with (plus a shilly-shallying government).
[You obviously haven’t been paying attention lately]
He still does it when asked something out of his prep.
He has improved considerably tho’. Maybe he is imagining the audience to be naked.
Simon Kasich@139
I despise the execs that organise the off-shoring of Australian jobs.
The Australian Government should be taking active steps to make it less financially attractive.
[49.Funny isn’t it?
The Greens have made a point of championing the ‘little guy’ until it was politically expedient to squash the little guy
]
Well it is 25% of the vote and the greens seem incapable of growing their vote, so lets change the rules so that 25% either don’t count at all or actually get pushed into voting for a major (or them).
If you can’t win on a level playing field, tilt the table.
Kevin @149,
Exactly.
If it s up to the small business operator to still initiate any case against a big corporation such as Coles and they still face the possibility of costsagainst them if they lose what is the point ? Nothing would really have changed.
At least labor is removing the cost factor as a barrier which seems to,me to be a much more practical,approach.
YOu can have all the legislation you like but if small business is too scared to use it what is the real point ?
Cheers.
Doyley @ 146
[If the governments proposed policy does not also relieve the burden of potential costs what would really have changed ?]
My understanding is that the Government’s policy is not about enabling small business to sue big business, but about enabling the ACCC to take action against big business exercising monopoly power by reducing the burden it needs to prove (from ‘intent’ to ‘effect’, which is much easier to show).
Labor’s proposal is quite different in that it goes directly to legal actions that small business could undertake under current law but which could be ruinous if they lost or even if they won.
The two are actually complementary.
Lizzie, not seeing it, sorry. Given that only one in four Labor voters endorses Bill as best suited to lead the party (according to the latest Essential) I hardly think I’m alone in this.
[The Australian Government should be taking active steps to make it less financially attractive.]
They are doing all they can to cut Australian wages already bemused.
ratsak @154,
Spot on.
Just another announceable by Turnbull.
Cheers.
kevjohnno
A few points coming off that —
1. My understanding is that Green parties elsewhere in the world have faced the same problem when it comes to a point where they have a chance at real power – to stay pure and principled, or to become realists. The realists, of course, win (but there are few hatreds as intense as that of the pure and principled…)
2. There is the further problem for the Greens in that (rightly or wrongly) they are still seen as a one issue party (although one would think the issue was refugees!). Parties who have formed around very simple platforms (Keep the Bastards Honest) are in dangerous territory when they start going outside that remit, because people who agree on their stance on that one issue might not support them when they cast a wider net.
Hence The Democrats suffered when they gave up the role of umpire in favour of actually playing.
3. If you want to be a political player, you have to structure your party to allow you the flexibility to do this. The Greens – precisely because, like the Democrats, they put an emphasis on democratic membership – have a cumbersome system which (ironically) hampers change and binds the parliamentary party in ways which don’t facilitate the agile and innovative approach the parliamentary party needs in practice.
4. The Greens are cr*p strategists. This is probably a result of putting purity and principle first, rather than recruiting people with political smarts. A leader worth their salt wouldn’t have accepted the Senate reforms with the Liberals timetable attached; the only reason to do so is if there is some far more important deal (for example, on climate change or refugee policy) attached to it.
If the Greens want to become real political players, they need to deal with those issues. I would think one of the most important ones is to restructure the party in a way which makes it easier to change positions, and gives more freedom to the parliamentary party to make judgement calls. However, that also requires having people in the parliamentary parliament capable of making them.
[Liberal senator Ian Macdonald has just told the chamber Australia should have a plebiscite not only on same sex marriage, but also abortion and euthanasia. Why not ask the people what they think, Macdonald reasons, perhaps not comprehending that observation begs the inevitable question – why not just do your job?]
Finally the obvious consequence of a SSM plebiscite comes out. Let’s just revert to Athenian Democracy and just assemble somewhere and shout over each other for a vote. What a farcical bunch of twits. Do your effing jobs or get out and let someone in who will.
DOYLEY: The justice system is great for two types of people: those with not assets (who can get a lawyer to spec their claim or maybe even represent themselves) because they have nothing to lose and those who are very rich, because they have nothing to lose either. But for those in the middle, with a small pile of assets built up over a lifetime, it is an absolute nightmare.
“Things are hoting up in the Melbourne mafia world.”
Lest we forget.
“Ms Vanstone’s decision to allow Madafferi to stay on humanitarian grounds came after those donations.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-07/vanstone-defends-actions-in-visa-case-of-crime-figure/6600326
bemused,
the company had at the time (still does i think) a core principle (whatever that means) of sustainable communities. Just not Australian communities I guess.
Corporate Social Responsibility is one of the biggest group w*&ks. There arent enough SAO’s to go around.
Jeez, who gives a flying toss onto a soggy Sao biscuit whether political parties are ‘old parties’ or new parties!?! It’s whether they are effective parties that counts!
[YOu can have all the legislation you like but if small business is too scared to use it what is the real point ?]
The point of changing the competition law to include a effects test is that it won’t necessarily be up to small business to commence a case. The ACCC can do that on behalf of consumers and SME’s.
It a very good change if it gets passed.
Oh look, the president of the solaranusist society is back. 🙂
C@tmomma @ 150
You will never see the Greens give credit to Labor. EVER.
Let us never forget it was the slimy greens, particularly that old commie babushka trotskyist hag Lee Rhiannon who tried to appropriate the legacy of Gough Whitlam within hours of his death by putting out material with a picture of Gough Whitlam with the greens logo plastered all over it.
A disgusting episode of virtual grave robbing by the always shameless greens.
[“Ms Vanstone’s decision to allow Madafferi to stay on humanitarian grounds came after those donations.”]
Vanstone was an absolutely crap Minister for Immigration. But she actually went through the right processes in deciding this case. I was very marginally involved for a short time. The real problem – as the 4 corners program showed – was the system that allowed Madafferi’s boosters to get in the ear of people who could make representations to Vanstone. And the lack of information at the time to contradict the case they were putting.
I hope the bastard is kicked out of Australia and sent back to Italy once he’s done his time.
[ 11:15am: Labor Senator Penny Wong :
“The Greens have sided with Cory Bernardi and Eric Abetz twice in three days to stop their own marriage equality bill from being fully debated and voted on by the Senate.
The Greens care more about eliminating other minor parties from the Senate than they do about eliminating discrimination against gay and lesbian Australians.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/the-pulse-live/politics-live-march-17-2016-20160316-gnl0fh.html#ixzz437JPegOJ
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
TPOF @161
Thanks.
[It a very good change if it gets passed.]
I agree, but as another poster indicated earlier, it will be a bugger to draft.
Colton,
The Greens give Bill equal billing on this Billboard..
I have sympathy for them tho’. Its not easy being Green but its even harder to stay afloat and relevant as a minor party.
WeWantPaul@163
Yeah, but not what I had in mind.
davidwh @171,
Thanks for your reply.
My trouble with the ACCC taking action is that in the past it has been found wanting and or too slow to act.
If the ACCC does not take action and small business is being affected what can a small business do,if it still faces the possibility of huge costs against it ?
Surely labor has a more practical,response,on offer than small business having to wait for the ACCC to get off its arse.
Anyway, just some pondering from a interested outsider.
Thanks for your response.
Off to lunch now.
Cheers.
TPOF yes it will take some careful thought to ensure the final legislation doesn’t have a negative impact on consumers. There will need to be a careful balance between ensuring competition and creating a situation where major players like Coles and WW find it hard to offer consumers special low prices.
The ACCC will need to use the legislation with proper thought. However we do need to give the ACCC the ability to use the legislation wisely.
Mike Bowers over at the Guardian commenting on the request to take photos in the senate (10:50 am mark):
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2016/mar/17/senate-enters-a-marathon-sitting-to-pass-voting-reform-politics-live#comments
[A request to photograph divisions was put to the president of the Senate’s office this week by press gallery president, Fairfax photographer Andrew Meares. The president can grant permission for photographs of divisions from time to time if nobody objects to the request.
President Stephen Parry put the question this morning to the senate, the only person to rise in his seat, Victorian Labor senator Stephen Conroy. He did not speak, just rising in his seat was enough to defeat the proposal. So this means the all important photographs of Greens voting with the government tonight to change the Senate voting rules will now take place without any photographic scrutiny.
After the move was defeated this morning Meares said:
It is disappointing that this Senate has chosen not to be accountable to the public who elected them. A secret Senate vote is not the sign of a healthy democracy.
I am less guarded than my colleague. This is what I’d say about it. Stephen Conroy talks the talk but he cant walk the walk I’m afraid, I think its frustrating and I really wish I could understand what his objections are.
Unfortunately he didn’t have to give any reasons – he just rose in his place. I don’t think that this move on his behalf represents so called Labor values he is supposed to represent.]
The Greens give Bill equal billing on this Billboard..
What a trite and simplistic poster.
Can Labor put one up with dead babies floating in the water off Christmas island next to a grainy black and white picture of Dicky Di to counter it I wonder?
Nah, Labor are more mature than that.
I have been among those to criticise Shorten’s speaking style in the past but he has a very strong team that are able to very eloquently argue the toss, Bowen is impressive for a standout example of this.
Shorten needs to connect with the ‘everyman’ archetype. If he is able to really portray the type of person that the electorate feel they can trust then the spoken style will be less important.
This does put a lot of pressure on him to really speak from an authentic place in a way which our last four prime ministers have tended to eschew in preference for a more media-managed style. The leaders’ debate will be the telling moment I think.
Stephen Conroy can be an unreconstituted knob sometimes. This is well known.
Doyley the problem for the ACCC running a successful action under current legislation is that the standard of proof they have to make is fairly high in that they have to prove intent. That can be difficult unless someone in the organisation the action is against is prepared to act against their own organisation. Also bad consequences from competition can happen in the absence of intent.
Big firms will now have to be more cautious about the possible competition effects when undertaking strategies.
But I agree with TPOF it will be a challenge to draft the legislative changes.
Unemployment down to 5.8% but any announced figure always seems to be a little flexible.
I see the Green bashing is still in full swing.
No matter how you whine the Senate Reforms are happening and the Greens are for Marriage Equality this is fact.
The only mistake the Greens made was using the slogan they did every time etc. This rightly give Labor a vehicle to attack
However do not be fooled. Its an attack on the use of a slogan. Not the policy behind it.
As a result the Greens will lose some paint for being foolish in using that slogan. I think its why Di Natalie is advertising for a new media person. (My guess alone so don’t read anything more into it)
Its why I have said the procedural process will not have long term effects on the Green vote.
[It a very good change if it gets passed.]
As I’ve noted I’m supportive of the intent, but the means?
How do you define what is legitimate competition and what is abuse of position?
Economies of scale have the effect of pushing small players out of the market. Will economies of scale be banned?
A patented proprietary technology could have the effect of pushing competition out of the market. Will patents and secret proprietary technologies be banned?
A large marketing budget and well know corporate branding can have the effect of reducing competition in the market. Will advertising and branding be banned?
Aggressive discounting, special offers and loss leading products can have the effect reducing competition. Will this mean the end of sales and cheap staples?
Shit, just have more competent management and more efficient business processes can have the effect of driving competitors out of the market. Do companies now have to hire retired Liberal politicians to ensure they don’t run foul of the law?
Changing the law to penalise the effect rather than the intent in competition law is easy to say, but it doesn’t take much thinking to realise it’s a nightmare to legislate. The potential for unintended consequences with negative effects far in excess of the problem you are attempting to solve is very real.
We’ll have to see what they come up with, but I’d be betting on either a complete back down or a bill so watered down as to be pointless. The risks of anything else are just too great politically. Especially when the targets are the same big corporates that fund the Libs and can just as easily transfer that funding to public campaigning to kill the idea and/or the government.
[
They are doing all they can to cut Australian wages already bemused.
Yeah, but not what I had in mind.
]
I have suggested before a reverse payroll tax, which I’d call a Social Continuity Contribution Levy.
Rather than imposing payroll tax on full time permanent employees, you make full time permanent employees the only class that doesn’t have a tax burden. Tax part time and fixed term contracts at 2%, tax outsourced contracts at 3% and tax crossborder outsource contracts at 7%. (someone smarter than me would need to do the numbers / rates mine are purely illustrative).
The levy is defensible because it moves the costs of labor mobility and the employment discontinuities from society who currently bear them to the business that benefit from them.
On the competition and competitive disadvantage.
Finding out is easy. A Current Affair back when I still thought it was worth watching showed how the Duopoly used their power to squeeze out competition.
So an effects test is good and can be done fairly easily when a journalist can explain it on a commercial current affairs show in a five minute segment.
The only problem is the money needed for the challenge to that investigation by lawyers.
This is where Labor’s proposal comes in. They truly are complementary policies so I hope before they are turfed out the effects test comes in and then Labor’s when it is the government hopefully very soon.
Simon Katich @ 178
Perhaps Labor should put up a billboard of Sarah Hanson-Young and her callously revealing response to the drowning deaths of some 200 asylum seekers;
‘Tragedies happen, accidents happen’
What a truly disgusting and shallow person.
POSS
“”Lizzie, not seeing it, sorry. Given that only one in four Labor voters endorses Bill as best suited to lead the party (according to the latest Essential) I hardly think I’m alone in this.””
Perhaps the public should put their BRAIN into gear and start looking at the Policies which will determine WHO wins Government!.
The Social Continuity Contribution Levy could also have a termination levy, where you have too pay to the Govt 2 years salary for every person made redundant, or three years where the position is offshored.
Guytaur @ 188
Typical green sook. Oh hang on, your not even a greens supporter right?
Greens can dish it out but can’t cop even the slightest of criticism.
If certain green posters want to use this site as a clearing house for labor bashing
120 journos to go from Age/SMH = 1/4 of journos.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/mar/17/fairfax-media-to-shed-120-journalists-in-attempt-to-slash-costs?CMP=soc_568
Agree Z
A flexible structure is essential. Politics is hard as you can never please everybody yet you always have to please enough. Pragmatism is often derided and strategists often distained but achieving government is the only way to start changing things. I just think some here are perhaps too hard on the greens for waking up to it.
Continued from last post (stupid phone!)
then expect some blowback.
by the way, my hatred of the greens was well established before the voting reform.
That has only served to cement my distrust and contempt for the slimy greens and their mangy supporters.
Colton
Recognising reality is not disgusting and shallow.
What is disgusting and shallow is creating hell holes of human right abuse of people in your care and excusing it by saying you can prevent drownings at sea.
Total BS. The only thing that works is the not settling in Australia to stop the boats or an alternative route to Australia that does not involve using boats.
At the moment the Government is still turning back boats even if a lot less supposedly. (Secrecy means we don’t know)
Why? Despite all the LNP have done people out there still think they can settle in Australia.
For the moment his handle has escaped my mind the former Labor staffer. His proposal was just no visa no entry to anyone no matter the form of travel to enter Australia.
I did not agree with his position, but I agreed that if you go down that road that was the way to do it Why no boat travel. No expensive off shore detention centres and the rest.
I disagreed because to do that policy is to tear up the refugee convention*. This is truly what those doing offshore detention want but are too afraid to do because of political consequences.
That is international political consequences of tearing up the refugee convention.
*NB I do not include the Labor party in this just some advising in immigration. Labor Regional processing policy is the right one.
momma,
I doubt Steve Conroy sees that as any impediment to getting on with his agenda.