An above-trend result for the Coalition from Ipsos this week has halted the long run of momentum to Labor in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – although it hasn’t reversed it, partly thanks to a stonger result for Labor from Essential Research. Technically there has been movement in Labor’s favour for the seventh week in a row, but the movement on this occasion was inside 0.05%. Perhaps not surprisingly, this has not resulted in any change on the seat projection. The Ipsos poll also provided leadership ratings which, as BludgerTrack interprets them, were perfectly in line with an overall trend that shows Malcolm Turnbull in freefall, and Bill Shorten improving modestly.
Preselection bits:
• The latest federal MP to announce their retirement is Teresa Gambaro, who held the seat of Petrie for the Liberals through the Howard years, then made a comeback in the seat of Brisbane in 2010. Gambaro said she wished to spend more time with her family, but unnamed party sources complained to the media that Gambaro was engaging in a “dummy spit” over her failure to win promotion in recent reshuffles, and that the late hour of her announcement meant she was “all but handing it to Labor”. There was a short-lived flurry of speculation that the preselection might be contested by former Premier Campbell Newman, after his biographer, former Cairns state MP Gavin King, told ABC Radio he was “weighing it up”. However, Newman promptly knocked the idea on the head, and Cameron Adfield of Fairfax reports the preselection is likely to go to National Retail Association chief executive Trevor Evans, who was talked out of pursuing a challenge against Gambaro last year by then Prime Minister Tony Abbott. It is also expected that Robert Cavallucci, who won the state seat of Brisbane Central in 2012 and lost it again in 2015, will nominate.
• Labor’s candidate to succeed Melissa Parke in Fremantle is Chris Brown, whose CV as listed in The Australian includes 29 years as a wharfie, ten months as an organiser for the Maritime Union of Australia, and ownership of small businesses in Fremantle. Brown’s victory was owed to factional arrangements that secured him overwhelming support in the 75% of the vote determined at head office, including all but unanimous support from the union delegates who account for half the overall vote. This easily negated his 155-110 defeat in the local party ballot at the hands of Josh Wilson, the chief-of-staff to Melissa Parke and deputy mayor of Fremantle. A full account of the results is provided by Gareth Parker of The West Australian.
• Joe Kelly of The Australian reports that New South Wales Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells faces a threat to her preselection from Jim Molan, a former senior army officer who was heavily involved in the government’s efforts against unauthorised boat arrivals. Fierravanti-Wells is said to have lost support among the Right for telling journalist Niki Savva she had confronted then Prime Minister Tony Abbott over perceptions he was having an affair with his chief-of-staff, Peta Credlin. It was earlier reported that factional moderates were organising a challenge by Richard Shields, a former ministerial adviser and manager with the Insurance Council of Australia, but the threat appeared to subside when Fierravanti-Wells was appointed to the ministry.
• The Liberal preselection for Bronwyn Bishop’s seat of Mackellar has been set for April 16.
[Berlin in the 1920s had one of the most liberal societies known up until that time. By 1934, he reactionaries had taken over.]
Germany in the 1920s was in the same position as Iraq in 2004. It had democracy imposed on it as part of a savagely hostile peace treaty. There was no tradition of popular rule in Germany at all and its democracy was only superficial. It looked like it might take hold in the second part of the 1920s because of strengthening economic conditions that provided relief after the catastrophic reparations demands being enforced in the early 1920s.
Those better economic conditions were swept away by the Great Depression leaving Germany hungering for the great days before the First World War when living conditions were the best in German history under a fairly dictatorial emperor. When Hitler’s nazi party came to power in 1933, it moved almost immediately to return to a dictatorship, imprisoning political rivals and introducing racial discrimination laws. It subsequently closed down the Reichstag completely. By 1934, Germany was already a one party state, which enforced its power through official violence.
I could go on and on about the differences. If you are looking for similarities, there are closer parallels with the rise of Donald Trump and the growth of violence at his rallies. Although seems to be as lacking in a fixed ideology as Hitler was obsessed by one.
[ 10:20am: Opposition leader Bill Shorten is only too happy to chat.
“It is now beyond a joke that Mr Turnbull is fanning the fires of the lunar right of his party,” Mr Shorten says of the Safe Schools program.
“At the end of the day this is a voluntary program schools can opt into….
“I think it’s weird that some people in the Liberal Party are so obsessed with other people’s sexuality,” Mr Shorten says.
The last thing students grappling with their sexuality need is “knuckle dragging right wing senators” making their lives more difficult.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/the-pulse-live/politics-live-march-17-2016-20160316-gnl0fh.html#ixzz436znhyza
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
[CTar1
Posted Thursday, March 17, 2016 at 9:04 am | Permalink
I don’t think Billson got a mention yesterday when the Govt was talking about the proposed ‘Effects Test’ ??]
He got to ask the Dorothy Dixer on the topic, to partly-sympathetic jeers from those Opposite.
[Pegasus
Posted Thursday, March 17, 2016 at 9:38 am | Permalink
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/17/climate-change-a-vote-changer-at-federal-election-says-poll
“Burning coal is warming the planet and warmer oceans are bleaching the reef. People can see the connection and they want better from their government.”]
So why did the Black Wiggle give more power to the Liberals?
JD
[One must ask why was the offer of a debate on SSM on Tuesday a political stunt yet today a rushed one hour debate and possible vote not a stunt ?]
HYPOCRITES
[ So why did the Black Wiggle give more power to the Liberals? ]
Because at heart he agrees with them.
Is Turnbull ‘weighed down’ by his negative gearing, his Cayman Island baggage, the NBN FAIL and his business baggge?
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
[
One must ask why was the offer of a debate on SSM on Tuesday a political stunt yet today a rushed one hour debate and possible vote not a stunt ?
HYPOCRITES
]
Just ridiculous damage control attempt, I hate it when labor pulls stupid stunts like this.
JR @ 93
Highlighting small business is a perfectly valid response to straw men about working from home.
If, as is being claimed, it’s important for people to be in close proximity to their direct work colleagues, and assuming they will still travel to their work, then the NBN allows businesses to locate, gather or split those work locations as appropriate while more easily maintaining broader/indirect connections.
The point is that the physical decoupling may occur at any scale which may, but doesn’t have to, include individuals.
Which is all a rather long winded way of restating things and saying I agree ;).
I see from Pyne’s comments on Safe Schools, the two ‘gangs’ are making lines in the sand.
The right-wing knuckle-draggers under Abbott have thrown down the gauntlet to the smarmy knuckle-draggers under Turnbull.
It’s like West Side Story only there’s no Maria.
[Patrick Bateman @ 2374
Posted Wednesday, March 16, 2016 at 11:38 pm | Permalink
Thought I’d drop by for the first time in a while. The comments here have always been a Labor right echo chamber, but it has deteriorated badly. Fact free ranting and raving about the Greens which just happens to align perfectly with the ALP’s current misguided smear campaign, homophobic religious nutters justifying the hard right’s assault on gay youth, and the deluded notion that the government is in trouble due to the tactical brilliance of human dish rag Bill Shorten.
What a shame… This used to be quite an interesting place to get some real insight.]
Nice seagull act, Patrick. Fly over. Shit all over everyone. Fly off.
BTW, the ‘human dishrag’ has the sort of cojones that the Black Wiggler can only dream about.
jenauthor
What about Peta? 😀
[WeWantPaul
Posted Thursday, March 17, 2016 at 10:41 am | Permalink
One must ask why was the offer of a debate on SSM on Tuesday a political stunt yet today a rushed one hour debate and possible vote not a stunt ?
HYPOCRITES
Just ridiculous damage control attempt, I hate it when labor pulls stupid stunts like this.]
HYPOCRITE.
Remember to doomsdayers in the bible saying the anti-christ will come when chaos reigns (weather etc.)
Here comes Trump!
We all know that the Greens are not going to put any effort into running Bernardi and Christensen out of the town.
We all know that the Greens will do their best to run Albo and Plibers out of town.
HYPOCRITES.
Somehow I don’t think Turnbull fancies Peta.
I suppose we can say the govt benches is the metaphorical Maria?
jenauthor
Indeed
Boerwar
Seagull analogy works!
[Nice seagull act, Patrick. Fly over. Shit all over everyone. Fly off.]
Wouldn’t change much for the likes of you.
[HYPOCRITE]
Often, but care to explain how I’m hypocritical in this context?
One thing I am wondering which I’ll toss into the ring for debate:
Has the Trump phenomenon actually had one positive effect on our politics.
Trump has dared to say what he thinks (debatable, but for argument’s sake I’ll posit that) and he hasn’t been denied popular support (no matter how much we think that is deluded).
Has ALP brains trust decided not to censor Bill’s comments the way all Aussie pollies have self-censored over the past 10 odd years?
Bill now comes across as natural and passionate (dare I use that word?). The fake/wooden/rehearsed delivery that has plagued most of our pollies has gone.
What thinks you guys?
[ Nice seagull act, Patrick. Fly over. Shit all over everyone. Fly off ]
Well, at least it was an appearance by one of the Shorten haters who have been very quiet of late??
There definitely has been a bit of an improvement in Bill’s speaking manner. I’d say he’s now at the level of a capable Year 4 public speaker. Not quite pushing Year 5 yet but hopefully he’ll get there before he’s required to win government this year!
Things are hoting up in the Melbourne mafia world. Apparently, the don was suing the Age for defamation following articles and the four corners report
[this week that Mr Acquaro’s execution-style killing meant a suppression order was now needed to protect her client’s prospect of a fair trial in the civil case against The Age.
“One can see how highly prejudicial it would be if a juror were to learn or to think that Mr Madafferi was responsible for the death of one of Mr McKenzie’s sources … and that is what The Age will report tomorrow if … there is carte blanche on reporting,” Ms Schoff said.
She said Mr Madafferi was suing The Age because he was “seeking to clear his name … he seeks vindication”.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/tony-madafferi-alleged-mafia-don-fails-to-suppress-information-about-alleged-plot-to-kill-joseph-acquaro-20160316-gnktya.html#ixzz4376D99y8
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook
[It should be left to the experts. I do not include in the list of experts the Liberal party of Australia.
I think it’s weird that some people in the Liberal party are so obsessed with other people’s sexuality
It’s the Tony Abbott supporters undermining Mr Turnbull. There is a lot going on here. But as we know Turnbull doesn’t control his party]
Nice work Bill
presidentotss
No one beats the fifth wiggle in the black skivvy.
My comment on the wet-legged Peter Martin article:
‘ I think Peter Martin has overlooked the fact that Labor’s NBN would have been connected in the cities too. So people would still be able to ‘bump into each other’ but they would have been able to do it quicker and get on with their money-generating more efficiently.
Malcolm Turnbull as Communications Minister, and no one else, put paid to that.
So this new idea of Turnbull’s might sound fantastic, but without the highway of the future, even for short journeys, it will be like a 3-legged horse. It will keep falling over, just when you want it to run fast and win the race.’
It is good that the Greens and the Liberals are in a conspiracy to get rid of the Cross benchers.
After all it is the Cross benchers who have staved off the 2014 Budget.
And after the DD they will not be around to stop that sort of rot anymore.
The Black Wiggler Strikes Again.
WWP
I think Boerwar was ranting too much to notice that you were agreeing. He took your mention of Labor in the second half of the sentence and assumed you were talking about Labor in the first half of the sentence.
i.e. he took you for a Greens apologist, hence the HYPOCRITE.
[president of the solipsist society
Posted Thursday, March 17, 2016 at 10:51 am | Permalink
Nice seagull act, Patrick. Fly over. Shit all over everyone. Fly off.
Wouldn’t change much for the likes of you.]
He crapped all over you as well, I suppose you realize.
I am different. I only crap all over people who need it.
jenauthor @ 121
Trump says what other people think. Especially when those thoughts have been suppressed because they were not politically correct. Thoughts like ‘Mexicans are rapists and criminals’ and ‘Muslims need to be kept out of the the United States’ and ‘If the US Military is ordered to torture prisoners they are damned well going to do it’. Many of these thoughts are politically incorrect because they are vicious, cruel and contrary to fundamental precepts of domestic and international law.
Bill Shorten has been deliberately playing down his own passion – its a political strategy that allows an incompetent Government to knock itself around when it is not taking fresh air swings. In the lead up to the election, it is time to move to a much more front foot approach.
The analogy with Trump is correct in one sense – that some old political rules have had their day. In the US, the rule that politicians need to be careful about what they say in case they sow dissent and worse is no longer necessary. In Australia, the idea of avoiding taking any stance that can leave you open to attacks from the other side is no longer open.
The small target strategy won the election for Howard in 1996 and he was a master of it. It has worked very well for the Liberals ever since, apart from Rudd’s ill-timed foray into carbon pricing in 2007 (ill-timed because of the GFC, sadly). But its day is passed. Now is the time for the major political parties to stand for something. And it is also time to stand for genuine social justice, the return of the role of unions in civilising labor (to avoid more 7-11 cases and the like) and a fairer tax system. The 1980s Reagonomics are dead. Sanders is showing that in the USA. Labor this year will show that here in a country with a stronger tradition of social democracy. The conservatives just don’t realise it because they are so behind the times.
Sorry, WWP. My bad.
Pegasus @ 55,
Come along and stand behind our Greens signs and make it look like we are really popular in Chisholm and Deakin!
Erm, no.
jenauthor
Bill has made some excellent – and passionate – speeches in the past (two I can think of off hand are his defence of Conroy’s attack re Nauru and his budget reply), up there with Gillard’s misogyny speech.
Like Gillard’s speech, the local media decided to basically ignore them.
What is happening now is that the multiple failures of the Abbott/Turnbull government are getting too great to ignore, and the ascension of Malcolm means there’s no escape valve.
poss
Sorry, but if I had a student in Year 4 capable of delivering such a speech, I’d be looking around for ways to fasttrack them into University.
He’d get a very high grade if he did an oral presentation of that standard at Year 12 – I certainly haven’t seen any student come close, but I’ve only been knocking around schools for thirty years.
Pegasus @ 59,
That would be Simon Sheikh, Greens’ shill, wouldn’t it?
Pegasus, get back to Greens’ HO and tell them their tactics are becoming entirely predictable and as plain as the nose on your face.
How about that Stephen Conroy fella blocking photographic scrutiny of the voting reform deal? You would think Labor would be all for photos of the Greens voting with the Liberals but apparently not…
Jeez, the free publicity via social media press release machine has really had her organic steel-cut oats for breakfast this morning!
http://larissa-waters.greensmps.org.au/save-the-reef
Hmm, I wonder if I should start releasing every single Labor Party press release, petition and negative mention of ‘The Greens’ and flood PB with it?
Nah. I would look like a pathetic try hard who underestimates people’s intelligence and ability to see through it for what it is.
[33.Sorry, WWP. My bad.]
Don’t sweat it – no problem at all, young Nick will pop in and call me much worse with even less justification and will probably throw in some free analysis of my relationship with my mother.
[If, as is being claimed, it’s important for people to be in close proximity to their direct work colleagues..]
I know of a v.large company that fought against people working from home. They said it was too difficult for HR to manage, claiming OHS red tape etc.
That was just before they moved Cad drafting offshore. Then they moved Eng design offshore too.
I suggested they might like to instead move the executive jobs offshore but I got the usual ‘you’re a funny lefty’ pat on the back.
[He’d get a very high grade if he did an oral presentation of that standard at Year 12 – I certainly haven’t seen any student come close, but I’ve only been knocking around schools for thirty years.]
Sure, most people can deliver a speech in a vaguely convincing way if they’ve had it prepared for them well in advance. I’m talking about his media conferences and doorstop interviews in which he still manages to sound like an alien in a rubber suit, putting emphasis on all the wrong places in a sentence and using rhetorical techniques with all the power and force of a wooden spoon moving through cold porridge.
[I wonder if I should start releasing every single Labor Party press release, petition and negative mention of ‘The Greens’ and flood PB with it?
Nah. I would look like a pathetic try hard who underestimates people’s intelligence and ability to see through it for what it is.]
I think some of your colleagues here have that pretty much sorted anyway.
Oh dear, the Greens luvvies must be getting worried.
I just received an email from Nina O’Connor, Adam Bandt’s Campaign Manager.
[Bemused,
Last week, over 100,000 Melburnians were called with a pre-recorded, robotic message attacking the Greens.
Will you donate today to help us counter these attacks?
The election could just be around the corner and we know exactly what the strategy of the old parties will be. From behind their computers they’ll use expensive robo calls and attack ads. We don’t have the money of the old parties, but we do have you. We want to have real conversations with real people, not delivering pre-recorded robo-calls to answering machines, but we need your help to make it possible. Chip in $75 today to put a phone in the hands of two volunteers.
$75 will cover two cheap phones and unlimited phone plans. Our volunteers are ready and raring to pick up the phone and have conversations with the people of Melbourne to help counter these attacks. Can you chip in $75 now Bemused?
Real democracy is about genuine conversations between real human beings. This is what our campaign believes in and it’s what Adam Bandt is doing to help make our community stronger.
Donate today to help our volunteers get on the phones to counter these attacks. The only way we can cut through the political spin is with real conversations, but we need your help to make that possible.
We can win this. But we need your help.]
To be fair to the Greens they have reach a point where difficult decisions need to be made to determine what type of political organization they want to become. This a choice all parties that form from a single or narrow interest movement. You can either stay focused on that issue and remain small but hopefully enough of a thorn to have some influence on at least one of the major parties policies on that issue, or grow the party to become a player.
I’ll be fair and assume the Greens leadership want’s to take the second path so they can make a positive difference to Australian politics but they have seen that the original growth plan of poaching from Labor’s left was not going to get them enough growth any time soon so they have made the decision to move the party firmly to the centre so they can take members and votes from all sides. It is a pragmatic move as I think there are lots of centre right voters looking for an alternative at the moment but it’s also risky as the passionate old greens might not come along for the ride. Time will tell how it all works out but labelling the Greens as hypocrites, while true, only highlights how hypocritical all the parties have to become to juggle the disparate desires of their members & supporters while remaining a actual force in politics.
Boris
I have not checked but I think the case was dismissed at committal (ie magistrate thought case was not sufficiently strong to go forward to trial).
The DPP is free to lodge an ex officio indictment and proceed nonetheless to trial but that sounds very unlikely.
https://youtu.be/O8XUteFSzR4
Gary Gray AO lamenting that his party isn’t on board with the Government’s so-called ‘dirty deal’ with the Greens.
Good morning again,
With regard to the effects test proposed by the government some questions please
Would it still be up to a small business operator/ operators to prove that a decision by a large corporation, such as Coles, has a adverse effect on them ?
If so would the small business operator / operators have to fund their own case with the possibility of costs against them if their case fails ?
The reason I ask is the policy announced earlier this week by labor would potentially remove the possibility of small business having to pay any costs incurred by their successful big business opponent.
This potential for huge costs being incurred has been a great disincentive to small business taking on Coles etc in the past.
If the governments proposed policy does not also relieve the burden of potential costs what would really have changed ?
Any help with this would be really appreciated.
Cheers.
Soli pres:
[Sure, most people can deliver a speech in a vaguely convincing way if they’ve had it prepared for them well in advance. I’m talking about his media conferences and doorstop interviews in which he still manages to sound like an alien in a rubber suit, putting emphasis on all the wrong places in a sentence and using rhetorical techniques with all the power and force of a wooden spoon moving through cold porridge.]
You obviously haven’t been paying attention lately
Funny isn’t it?
The Greens have made a point of championing the ‘little guy’ until it was politically expedient to squash the little guy
DOYLEY – If you can’t afford justice, justice doesn’t mean anything.
Reading this crap is like being force fed like a foie gras goose until you vomit!
Absolutely NO mention by the gormless Greens’ leader Dicki Di of who it was that introduced the High Income Defic Levy when in government. I’ll give you a clue, it starts with ‘L’ and ends with ‘r’.
Honestly, would it really kill the increasingly puerile Greens in this election year to correctly attribute even a modicum of acknowledgement of the Labor Party, if it deserved, when they are talking about something they are trying to take all the credit for!?!