An above-trend result for the Coalition from Ipsos this week has halted the long run of momentum to Labor in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – although it hasn’t reversed it, partly thanks to a stonger result for Labor from Essential Research. Technically there has been movement in Labor’s favour for the seventh week in a row, but the movement on this occasion was inside 0.05%. Perhaps not surprisingly, this has not resulted in any change on the seat projection. The Ipsos poll also provided leadership ratings which, as BludgerTrack interprets them, were perfectly in line with an overall trend that shows Malcolm Turnbull in freefall, and Bill Shorten improving modestly.
Preselection bits:
• The latest federal MP to announce their retirement is Teresa Gambaro, who held the seat of Petrie for the Liberals through the Howard years, then made a comeback in the seat of Brisbane in 2010. Gambaro said she wished to spend more time with her family, but unnamed party sources complained to the media that Gambaro was engaging in a “dummy spit” over her failure to win promotion in recent reshuffles, and that the late hour of her announcement meant she was “all but handing it to Labor”. There was a short-lived flurry of speculation that the preselection might be contested by former Premier Campbell Newman, after his biographer, former Cairns state MP Gavin King, told ABC Radio he was “weighing it up”. However, Newman promptly knocked the idea on the head, and Cameron Adfield of Fairfax reports the preselection is likely to go to National Retail Association chief executive Trevor Evans, who was talked out of pursuing a challenge against Gambaro last year by then Prime Minister Tony Abbott. It is also expected that Robert Cavallucci, who won the state seat of Brisbane Central in 2012 and lost it again in 2015, will nominate.
• Labor’s candidate to succeed Melissa Parke in Fremantle is Chris Brown, whose CV as listed in The Australian includes 29 years as a wharfie, ten months as an organiser for the Maritime Union of Australia, and ownership of small businesses in Fremantle. Brown’s victory was owed to factional arrangements that secured him overwhelming support in the 75% of the vote determined at head office, including all but unanimous support from the union delegates who account for half the overall vote. This easily negated his 155-110 defeat in the local party ballot at the hands of Josh Wilson, the chief-of-staff to Melissa Parke and deputy mayor of Fremantle. A full account of the results is provided by Gareth Parker of The West Australian.
• Joe Kelly of The Australian reports that New South Wales Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells faces a threat to her preselection from Jim Molan, a former senior army officer who was heavily involved in the government’s efforts against unauthorised boat arrivals. Fierravanti-Wells is said to have lost support among the Right for telling journalist Niki Savva she had confronted then Prime Minister Tony Abbott over perceptions he was having an affair with his chief-of-staff, Peta Credlin. It was earlier reported that factional moderates were organising a challenge by Richard Shields, a former ministerial adviser and manager with the Insurance Council of Australia, but the threat appeared to subside when Fierravanti-Wells was appointed to the ministry.
• The Liberal preselection for Bronwyn Bishop’s seat of Mackellar has been set for April 16.
I’m quite open to the intentions of the Effects Test. The current requirement to prove intent really does make the provisions as close to a dead letter as you can get. The asymmetry of the fight just makes it near impossible for the little guy to afford to get to the starting line, let alone win. And that’s before the risk of copping the big guys (deliberately inflated) costs which is what Labor’s policy at least has attempted to address.
But for all the ranting about the unintended consequences of Labor’s negative gearing reforms, this one looks like a potential disaster. Maybe Potato Head was thinking about his own party’s policy when he predicted end of times.
I wouldn’t want to over exaggerate the dangers, that’s the Libs ground, but it is going to be a real trick to draft a piece of legislation that decides what forms of behaviour are just legitimate good competition that weeds out uncompetitive businesses and which are abuses of market power. How long is a piece of string?
Like I said, the current law seems inadequate, but the Effects Test looks like a potentially glaring example of the Politician’s Fallacy
https://youtu.be/trw1PbQt_Yo
“This SMH editorial is impressed by Shorten and his policies but says he is still weighed down by union baggage”
Australia in 2016 could be Nazi Germany in 1934. I wonder if Turnbull’s glorious budget will provide funding for ‘concentration camps’ to house unionists, socialists and homosexuals.The country seems to be heading in that direction.
[The above article looks like he has been given some inside info on turnbulls proposed direction and he has given a fair analysis of it.]
Yeah, like all those insider briefings about how the GST was gonna rise, and how there were gonna be tax cuts, and how excesses in negative gearing were going to be reined in, and how Labor’s changes to super and smoking excise was a disaster?
No doubt Turnbull is quite passionate about this proposed direction (for the moment).
Fool Gilbert on Sky News while interviewing Tony Burke just showed how pig ignorant he is about the principle of preferential voting. My nickname for him is well deserved.
He said that the votes of people voting in lower house elections also get exhausted. Idiot!
If you haven’t heard already, for all Victorian PBers in the electorates of Chisholm and Deakin:
http://www.alp.org.au/eastern_suburbs_townhall_march19
So I wonder what sell out policy the Greens and their coalition friends will concoct for Global warming? It will be a sell out, but the fifth wiggle will term it “pragmatic” which I agree is likely the case – a pragmatice way to try and garner more green votes at the cost of the environment.
Tom.
Rossmore
Agree that the coalition front and back benchers did not exude confidence!
Btw, Barrie Cassidy will be talking with Jon Faine shortly
In about 10 minutes
http://www.abc.net.au/melbourne/programs/listenlive.htm
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/17/climate-change-a-vote-changer-at-federal-election-says-poll
[“Burning coal is warming the planet and warmer oceans are bleaching the reef. People can see the connection and they want better from their government.”
The Queensland parliament, with the support of both Labor and the Liberal-National party, recently passed a motion supporting Adani’s efforts to get the required regulatory approvals passed, Sheikh said.
“With 65% of Australians expressing their concerns over the impact the mine will have on our climate and on the Great Barrier Reef, both Labor and the Coalition appear to be on the wrong side of this issue,” he said.]
Martin’s article was interesting, I remember – as posted above he was always skeptical of the NBN.
The telecommuting, working from home argument is a straw-man.
The key benefit of a proper NBN is to improve the productivity and competitiveness of small to medium businesses in the suburban fringe or in regional areas. Businesses in the CBD already access to competitive, high speed services, that won’t change. It is the small to medium businesses that would now be able to compete.
Everything else – education, health are just benefits on top of this.
http://larissa-waters.greensmps.org.au/save-the-reef
[The choice is stark – between greed and care, between dredging, dumping and shipping for new and expanded coal exports or protecting the Reef and the coastal communities who rely on it, between the old parties and the Greens.
Sign our petition to Premier Palaszczuk and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull today, calling on all parties to put the health of the Reef ahead of new coal ports!]
victoria @ 17:
The many faces of Malcolm Turnbull:
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0d3d1cf861ad5b689e8158b856990e04
Thanks Jaeger
Pictures do tell a thousand words!
Why isn’t Malcolm Turnbull weighed down by the baggage of having been a merchant banker. God, Fairfax is s…
[The telecommuting, working from home argument is a straw-man.
The key benefit of a proper NBN is to improve the productivity and competitiveness of small to medium businesses in the suburban fringe or in regional areas.]
Proper NBN has a very similar effect of cities. You get to bump into people and ideas that you would never do if you were isolated. Your personal ‘city’ can include people from all over the world. The ability of information to be shared between geographically isolated people (even within a single city) is unprecedented. It doesn’t replace the power of cities, but amplifies it and disperses it.
We cannot know what the future information people will share and mutually benefit from will be. But we can be 99.9% sure that the requirements for speed and capacity of data transfer will be exponentially greater than currently.
To dismiss all of the evidence of these truths as a ‘screed’ is as pig ignorant as climate skepticism. Martin, can sometimes get it, but he writes too much crap too often to rate him in the same league as Gittens or Pascoe.
ratsak @ 33
Yes. That was brilliant. Burke is one of the very best Parliamentary performers on either side. Mind you, he has been given some wonderful material by the Government to work with.
William you still have LNP gaining a seat in Victoria. Should be -1 not +1
Good morning all,
Di Natalie and the greens really are a intriguing lot.
On Monday they huffed and puffed and hyper ventilated when one of the cross benchers offered them the opportunity to debate and possibly vote by weeks end on their own SSM legislation.
According to the greens this week was all about senate reform and the passing of the relevant legislation must take priority. They were upset that such a important issue as SSM was being used as a political tool and shame on labor etc etc etc.
Yet here we are today, the senate reform legislation is still being debated and voted on, and the greens have demanded labor stand aside and let the very same SSM legislation be debated and voted on today in a one hour window.
One must ask why was the offer of a debate on SSM on Tuesday a political stunt yet today a rushed one hour debate and possible vote not a stunt ?
On Tuesday labor and the cross bench were bad for bringing the opportunity forward yet today the greens are pure for doing the same thing but giving such a important piece of social policy a one hour look over and forcing a vote.
It is especially intriguing given the senate reform legislation is still hanging there.
I really would like someone with a green halo to explain the difference to a poor confused labor voter like me.
Cheers and a good day to all.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-17/crabb-a-heady-mix-of-sabotage-and-self-interest/7253166
[Leyonhjelm’s tactic is at least allied with his personal belief; he supports the removal of same-sex marriage prohibitions. But his scorn for the Greens – who staidly refused to take the bait – chimed in nicely with the approach of the Labor Party, which celebrates diversity by having variable historical positions on both Senate reform and gay marriage, but these days takes a hard line on disapproving of the Greens.
Labor Senator Sam Dastyari authored Labor’s formal response to the Senate reform proposal, which went light on opposing the actual reforms, but heavy on them going too fast, and involving the Greens.
Yesterday, Senator Dastyari – a man of reliable enthusiasm – restricted himself to uncontroversial territory, focusing his attack on Greens leader Richard di Natale’s recent appearance in GQ magazine clad in a top-of-the-range black skivvy.]
Good to see Dastyari concentrating on what is really important and debating the substance of the matter.
Its the same again –
[9:48am: Before anything really gets going Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm has moved to suspect standing orders to debate marriage equality legislation.
The Greens say it is a “cheap stunt” and will not support it.
But Labor will saying the Greens are hypocrites for voting down their own bill.]
Politics, eh?
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/the-pulse-live/politics-live-march-17-2016-20160316-gnl0fh.html#ixzz436qmHWXb
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
Sohar @ 52
Sorry. Much as I hate this government, I have to call your analogy with Nazi Germany in 1934 as absolute and utter crap.
[No doubt Turnbull is quite passionate about this proposed direction (for the moment).]
Don’t say that. I don’t want this doomed. It’s actually a first class idea (although being floated by third class minds).
[9:54am: And it is lost.
The marriage equality debate will come back on a bit later today but only an hour has been allocated for debate so it is not going to come to a vote.
Now the twittersphere has descended into a war between Green and Labor MPs as to which side has the moral high ground on this one. ]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/the-pulse-live/politics-live-march-17-2016-20160316-gnl0fh.html#ixzz436rvKQ8J
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
[The Turnbull government is being called on to retain the temporary budget repair levy on high-income earners, which is due to expire next July, after conceding this week that tax cuts for individuals may be unaffordable in this budget due to lack of funds.
According to the modelling, which has been signed by Parliamentary Budget Officer Phil Bowen, if the temporary budget repair levy was made permanent it would affect only the top 1.3 per cent of taxpayers, 382,000 people.
If a new marginal tax rate of 50 per cent was introduced for people who earn more than $1 million a year, it would affect just 0.08 per cent of taxpayers, or 9850 people.
According to the document, those two tax changes would raise $4.1 billion for the government over the next four years, and potentially $24 billion by 2025-26.
Greens leader Richard Di Natale said the Turnbull government needed to seriously consider the proposal, given the pressures of disappearing revenue.
“Today, the Greens are putting these costings on the table and calling on the government to recognise that making the deficit levy permanent makes good economic sense,” he said.
“The alternative is to continue dismantling our social safety net and slashing funds for schools and hospitals, which is a recipe for a more unfair society.”]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pressure-on-government-to-make-budget-repair-levy-permanent-20160316-gnkfhv.html#ixzz436rq5R00
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
[Why isn’t Malcolm Turnbull weighed down by the baggage of having been a merchant banker. God, Fairfax is s…]
And his involvement with HIH. A vastly greater number of people were actually destroyed by that disaster than were allegedly hurt by the Cleanevent issue.
[Sorry. Much as I hate this government, I have to call your analogy with Nazi Germany in 1934 as absolute and utter crap.]
Plus 1.
But to be fair to Hitler he was ruthlessly effective for a time so the unfairness of the comparison cuts both ways.
The benefits of the NBN are across the board, not any particular purpose.
It looks like Turnbull has deliberately provided a lesser version, with a lower commercial value (will not be worth much when it is privatised), at a cost that is rapidly approaching the original world class version.
BCassidy did not say anything about Turnbull looking at borrowing to invest in infrastructure.
Apparently Abbott has signed the safe schools petition
Where would we be without the twittersphere.
The Greens party is very effective at using social media. It has always had to use alternative communication channels to circumnavigate the MSM and the political duopoly.
[If a new marginal tax rate of 50 per cent was introduced for people who earn more than $1 million a year, it would affect just 0.08 per cent of taxpayers, or 9850 people.]
If you did that, the Liberals could not bang on about how many people were going to move into the second highest tax bracket courtesy of bracket creep. It would be the third highest tax bracket!
The amounts would be the same for middle and upper-middle income earners, but the bullshit would not smell as sweet.
dave@#70:
(Misattributed) Bismarck’s Green sausages?: “Gesetze sind wie Würste, man sollte besser nicht dabei sein, wenn sie gemacht warden”
[Now the twittersphere has descended into a war between Green and Labor MPs as to which side has the moral high ground on this one.]
given the Greens stood with Abetz and Bernardi just 15 minutes ago in killing off debate on marriage equality for the second time I’d give the high ground to Labor.
As Senator penny Wong so eloquently put it.
The Greens are more concerned in eliminating minor parties that they are in eliminating discrimination against gay couples on marriage equality.
possibly the last chance before the next election to have a full debate on marriage equality where the parties and individuals stand on this issue for the voters to see and the Greens have stood firmly with the libs to kill it off.
[Now the twittersphere has descended into a war between Green and Labor MPs as to which side has the moral high ground on this one.]
Hard to think of a more useless and self-indulgent activity to engage in.
Why do they bother to set aside time for a ‘debate’? It’s not as if anyone will change their attitude. If the time allowed is to get everyone’s opinion into Hanzard, the Senators should not have allowed the truncated time. Farcical.
rhwombat
Its well worth watching the greens exposed as hypocrites.
[So I wonder what sell out policy the Greens and their coalition friends will concoct for Global warming?]
more likely than not that the Greens will come out in support of Direct Action.
Tricky dicky is taking the greens so far right they may as well call themselves the Griberals
Happy St Patrick’s Day everyone!
Great day for the Irish!
[And his involvement with HIH. A vastly greater number of people were actually destroyed by that disaster than were allegedly hurt by the Cleanevent issue.]
Nobody much raises putting public money in cloud seeding scam (a lazy $10 million) that just so happened to be owned by a donor to his Wentworth Forum.
Grog had this flea sussed way back during utegate (even before Gretch was exposed)
http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2009/06/problem-with-malcolm.html
The guy is a self absorbed fraud for stands for nought but has massively over inflated delusions of adequacy at politics. The only mystery about Malcolm Bligh Turnbull is how after all the demonstrated incompetence and uselessness so many people keep falling for the idea he’s a leader’s bootlace.
I’ve got emails from Nigerians that are more likely to deliver on their promises than this muppet.
So they greens and Libs happy to ‘as long as it takes’ to screwing over minor parties and the 25% of the population that vote for them, but paying only token attention to marriage equality.
What priorities – what class!
How rare as a labor supporter to be on the moral high ground – by so far!
The point of the Nazi Germany analogy is that similar themes are being used by the politically powerful and the media – trade unionists bad, homosexuality a threat to our culture.
Berlin in the 1920s had one of the most liberal societies known up until that time. By 1934, he reactionaries had taken over.
Bill giving the knuckle draggers a big serve over safe schools
shellbell,
I don’t participate in the twittersphere or Facebook.
Unfortunately many campaigns are only conducted via Facebook.
An email from Anna Burke invited me to receive updates from the ALP candidate in Chisholm but the link provided was to a Facebook page.
[
The benefits of the NBN are across the board, not any particular purpose.
]
I agree with this of course, I was highlighting small-medium businesses as an initial, significant productivity boost, within 3-5 years, trying to frame the argument in a way that would appeal to economists.
RATSAK – In our capitalist society we are force-fed the notion that those who make money must have “talent”, when, in fact, greed, aggression and luck are all you need. Unfortunately, many voters fall for that con. But they are waking up, fast.
MTBW,
So it is! Not on our radar even though my OH has irish ancestry.
how would the greens and lnp elimination of minor parties stand up to an effects test?
they are reducing eliminating competitors for an economic benefit of increased electoral funding via a higher primary vote.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/03/16/mafia-killing-just-tip-iceberg/
[The gangland slaying of Joseph Acquaro shows the Calabrian mafia is alive and kicking, despite an entrenched culture of denial from authorities.
Mr Small’s book examines the links between organised crime and politicians, and how these bonds are formed and fostered.
Mr Small says support from people in power and complacency play big roles in allowing the organisation to flourish.
“Political support, donations to political parties was (a factor),” he said.]
Peg
I am like you I don’t do facebook or twitter and from some of the stupid tweets if that is what you call them are well worth not looking at.
Peg
I am of Irish heritage as well.
hey Shellbell do you think the DPP will appeal the magistrates dismal of the case against the SES bloke