Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition

The latest monthly Ipsos poll gives the Coalition its most encouraging result in some time.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a steadier for the Turnbull government, recording the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 after it sagged to 52-48 in the previous poll. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 45%, Labor is down one to 31%, and the Greens are down one to 14%. Nonetheless, the poll corroborates other recent polling in finding a plunge in support for Malcolm Turnbull, who is down seven on approval to 55% and up eight on disapproval to 32%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 33% and down three to 52%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from 64=19 to 61-22. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

The Australian also has a Newspoll result suggesting Tony Windsor is a real show in his bid to take New England back from Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce. The survey of 518 respondents shows Windsor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 46% for Joyce and 44% for Windsor. When respondents were prompted for how they would vote if the contentious Shenhua Watermark mine on Liverpool Plains was approved, Windsor took a 47% to 42% lead on the primary vote, and his lead after preferences extended to 56-44.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling aggregate from Essential Research has two-party preferred at 50-50 for the third week in a row, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – Coalition to 42%, Labor to 36% – and the Greens up one to 11%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on same-sex marriage (support up five points to 64% with opposition down four to 26%, and 66% favouring a plebiscite versus only 23% who think the matter should be decided by parliament) and climate change (63% say it’s caused by human activity, up seven since November, and 27% consider it natural fluctuation, down five; 57% think not enough is being done to address it, up four since August).

Other questions look in depth at the leaders, including a finding that 39% favour Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party (down three since December), with Julie Bishop on 12% (down one) and Tony Abbott on 9% (steady). Changes on the equivalent Labor question are slight, but Bill Shorten nonetheless pulls into the lead by gaining two points to 15%, with Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek both steady on 14%, and Chris Bowen up four to 7%. Questions on the attributes of the two leaders are fairly predictable in finding Malcolm Turnbull deteriorating across all measures since September, while Bill Shorten remains steady. Turnbull takes particularly heavy hits on understanding the problems facing Australia (down ten to 53%), being good in a crisis (down seven to 52%), and being visionary (down seven to 44%). Interestingly though, his biggest move is a drop in “aggressive”, from 38% to 24%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,404 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 49
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  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    This uber-expensive and divisive SSM plebiscite must be dumped.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/divisive-marriage-equality-plebiscite-to-cost-australia-more-than-500-million-20160312-gnhgtp.html
    Peter Hartcher reckons the Ipsos poll shows 2.1m voters have peeled their initial support away from Turnbull.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfaxipsos-poll-voters-feel-the-sevenmonth-itch-20160313-gnhx9f.html
    The Australian says that a Newspoll in New England suggests Barnaby might be heading for a wipe out. (Google the following string).
    /national-affairs/newspoll/deputy-pm-in-danger-of-wipeout/news-story/360d853fd376fc379ecfb52e7fc6a088
    Gabrielle Chan on Shorten’s statement that Turnbull has given up.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/mar/13/bill-shorten-says-lack-of-economic-plan-shows-malcolm-turnbull-has-given-up
    Ross Gittins puts it to us that neither side is prepared to do more than just tinker with the budget.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/budget-reform-likely-to-be-just-tinkering-20160312-gnhlsg.html
    Everyone is to blame other than Trump says Trump.
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/13/donald-trump-weekend-violence-chaos-protests
    It seems this trend is not improving.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/owners-of-lemon-cars-are-struggling-to-use-their-consumer-rights-to-end-nightmare-20160311-gngmhs.html
    Amanda Vanstone says the PM should be judged on substance rather than sound bites.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-relative-calm-has-rattled-the-horses-20160311-gnh1n7.html
    Toddlers with guns kill more people in the US than terrorists.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/13/the-macabre-truth-of-gun-control-in-the-us-is-that-toddlers-kill-more-people-than-terrorists-do
    We are now in an era of barricade democracy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/barricade-democracy-altering-the-world-as-countries-retreat-behind-walls-20160312-gnh9j8.html
    A former Catholic priest turned forensic psychologist writes what Pell should have said at the Royal Commission. It makes sense.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/what-cardinal-george-pell-should-have-told-the-child-abuse-royal-commission-20160311-gnh37k.html

  3. Section 2 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Are we ready to confront death without religion?
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/13/are-we-ready-to-confront-death-without-religion
    Is it time for an overhaul of the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency?
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/calls-for-overhaul-of-national-health-regulatory-body-escalate,8772
    Inside the deep web.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-walk-on-the-dark-side-20160311-gngcis.html
    “View from the Street” at its sarcastic best.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-turnbull-threatening-his-way-to-victory-20160312-gnhlh8.html
    Dave Donovan goes after the Gold Coast mayor.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/home-on-the-grange-with-tom-polite-tate–the-gold-coasts-bovver-boy-mayor,8771
    Andrew Dyson introduces “touching etiquette”.

    David Pope loves drawing machines. Here he has Sam Dastyari with one.

    Mark Knight and the violence at the Moomba festival.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8cd59b200552cb64f2b93466ccd471f3?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    A lovely little image from The Australian.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/476127d20df8df90c0c7406bd1f5a57d
    David Rowe has the Trump followers worked out.

  4. Vanstone: “Malcolm Turnbull will and should be judged on substance not soundbites”

    So right, Amanda. When he does something of substance, we’ll judge him.

    And this quote from her says a lot about her blunt and unsympathetic nature. Tactless, too.

    [I saw this recently when someone was saying how good they felt about Bindi Irwin winning Dancing with the Stars because she had lost her father. I simply replied that she was no different to anyone else who lost their father and that it was more than a decade ago. The next day I read that I had mounted an attack on Bindi Irwin. A minor media frenzy ensued, over nothing.]

  7. I note that the ABC on both News radio and tv is citing the conflicting polls when reporting IPSOS.

    I like that the ABC is doing this it tells voters to treat it and the other polls with caution. Given the usual hyperbole reporting on polls I think this can only be a good thing.

  8. Forgot to say, thank you BK. And also forgot to say empathy over the situation with your son and granddaughter.

    We have a very weird situation evolving in a distant branch of the extended family. All I can really say is that the law seems to me to be more or less an ass when it comes to dealing with either the human reality or the rapidly-evolving complexities.

  9. lizzie

    [Vanstone: “Malcolm Turnbull will and should be judged on substance not soundbites”]

    Well, in that case he should just shut up and do something.

  10. bw

    That Price Waterhouse Coopers survey is a great big bison. It also happens to be a great example of wasteful spending easily avoided.

    Great for Labor to use as the LNP the big spenders party.

  11. guytaur

    I was thrilled to hear of that PWC survey. Just throwing money away because of Tony’s stubbornness/trickiness.

  12. lizzie

    Yes evidence that can be used to easily demonstrate the big spending of the LNP is great.

    This is the LNP’s pink batts. Harm caused to people for no result. Massive waste of taxpayers money just being thrown away.

    The voters get this in a crystal clear way. A symbolic issue to attack the public perception of the LNP as better economic managers.

  13. Thanks to Ghost you don’t have to get around the paywall

    GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Seat of New England 2 Party Preferred: Joyce NAT 48 (-16.5 from election) Windsor IND 52 #auspol

  14. joshgnosis: Abetz claims the PwC study doesn’t take into account how depressed anti-marriage equality people will feel if the law is changed.

  15. The PwC figure of 66 million for public information campaigns quoted by Mark Kenny looks really suspect. At the 1999 referendum the Yes/No cases cost around 16 million, and another 7.5 million each went to the ARM and the ACM. With the rules still to be made, there’s no legal requirement at the moment for either of these forms of funding at a plebiscite.

  17. 163 – I like those numbers. Turnbull could (most likely) still win, but Barnaby losing his seat would be the silver lining

  18. I didn’t know abut this.

    [Some governments would believe they owed someone at least an explanation but Turnbull regime is just as preoccupied with keeping things secret as its predecessor. Nothing to see here.

    Australians are quietly, firmly, pushed away from better security and intelligence oversight. Senator David Johnson tells Labor that John Faulkner’s private member’s bill to improve oversight of the joint committee on security and intelligence will be refused because the situation does not require fixing. It is the first Labor hears of the change of plan.

    For new JCIS chair, Andrew Nikolic, since we are at war with ISIS, the public has no right to know anyway. Under its new chair the committee will become a rubber stamp. Turnbull’s government is rejecting improved oversight out of hand. Any supervision now relies on a government appointed overseer and a monitor it tried to do away with in 2014. it could have been worse. They could have called in the IPA.]

    http://urbanwronski.com/2016/03/13/turnbull-creates-a-storm-in-a-double-d-cup-in-a-week-of-dithering-and-indecision/

  19. [G @ 157
    I note that the ABC on both News radio and tv is citing the conflicting polls when reporting IPSOS.]

    With good reason. Does anyone really believe that the LNP vote went up in the past month of bumbling, even if it is within MOE?

    Scientific polls produce rogues (I think it’s statistically 1 in 20).

    This one reads like the new kid dropped the test tubes and quickly shoved them back in any old order.

  20. [MALCOLM Turnbull will today celebrate half a year as Prime Minister confronted by a deal that could wreck his Senate voting reform but eliminate the need for an early election.

    He also will face a Labor campaign depicting him as the Minister for Disappointment after what the Opposition will claim has been six months of failed expectations.

    …Labor has a different list. It itemises what Mr Shorten says are undelivered promises, and include:

    ● To respect the intelligence of the electorate by using “advocacy not slogans”

    ● Provide economic leadership. Mr Shorten will point to confusion on government tax policy

    ● Restrain spending

    ● End the Coalition’s 30-week run of poor Newspoll findings under Tony Abbott. The government has fallen to parity with Labor’s two-party preferred vote in those surveys

    ● Restoration of cabinet government.

    “His inability to make a decision on anything is setting Australia backwards. All the waffle in the world can’t hide the damage this is doing,” Mr Shorten said.]

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/turnbull-branded-minister-for-disappointment/news-story/29c408b8298aae0259cd05b57e97e57b

  23. [CTar1

    Posted Monday, March 14, 2016 at 5:51 am | Permalink

    Not a peaceful Sunday in other places –

    Turkey explosion: Car bomb kills at least 27 in central Ankara

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35798517

    And –

    Ivory Coast: Deadly shooting at Grand Bassam beach resort

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35798502%5D

    It is difficult to see the ethnic Turks being able to sit on top of anywhere between 15 million and 30 million Kurds indefinitely.

  24. South Australia has a population of 1.7 million, give or take.
    Tasmania is ~ half a million.
    Western Australia ~ 2.6 million
    Queensland 4.7 million
    Victoria 5.8 million
    NSW 7.5 million
    ACT ~ 355000
    NT ~ 250000

    Now I was wondering if Ipsos breakdown how many respondents were polled in each State so I could see whether the 100 in SA which produced the 64-36 result to the Coalition was in equilibrium with the numbers in the other States based on their population?

    Also, is it possible that SA results get skewed because Labor’s support is concentrated in the suburbs and exurbs of Adelaide, whereas the Liberals own the Hills around Adelaide and the countryside? Therefore, if Ipsos tries to spread it’s polling around the state evenly is this the actual cause of the skewing to the Coalition as well as the low numbers polled?

    That is, Labor’s vote is more concentrated but the polling is more spread out?

    I realise this may not be a question that may be answerable but if it is possible to scrutinise the data more closely then I’d like to have a look at it if anyone can tell me where to go.

    (No, not in that way! 😉 )

  25. [Former union leader and federal minister Greg Combet has been selected to champion Victoria’s defence industry.

    He will begin the job in April for an initial 12 month period.

    Victorian Industry Minister Lily D’Ambrosio​ said Mr Combet would advocate for Victoria’s defence industry and provide advice for its growth.

    “Appointing a defence industry advocate will help grow the sector even further and create new jobs,” she said.

    Mr Combet was previously minister for defence personnel, materiel and science in the former federal Labor government, and was secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions.

    He said he would work hard to secure defence industry jobs and investment for Victoria.

    Mr Combet said securing work for Victoria for future submarines and naval frigates would be a priority.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/greg-combet-lands-job-advising-state-government-on-defence-20160313-gnhvb1.html

  27. Gittins: so sensible, IMO.

    I worry not just about the character strength of our politicians, but also about the quality of the advice they’re getting from the econocrats of Treasury and Finance and the heads of other departments.

    [One thing the bureaucrats should understand is that the ideological push for lower government spending is a snare and a delusion. It’s never gonna happen, because the public won’t accept it and there are no pollies mad enough to try.

    The key to good spending management is to accept that the goal should be not smaller government, but better government. Delude yourself that we’ll soon be seeing smaller government – that there are vast areas of things governments will stop doing – and you’re more susceptible to the kind of short-sighted, mindless cutbacks that often involve false economies, mere cost-shifting or savings that don’t stick, of which we saw so much in the first Abbott budget.

    But accept that we need better government – that government will always be with us, with ever-growing responsibilities and spending – and you see more clearly that the task is to identify and correct specific instances of excessive or ineffective spending – with which the budget no doubt abounds.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/budget-reform-likely-to-be-just-tinkering-20160312-gnhlsg.html

  28. HEY GREENS IT IS NOT TOO LATE TO STOP YOURSELVES FROM HANDING CONTROL OF THE SENATE TO THE LIBERALS.

    It is not too late for you to swallow your pride, admit your error, and listen – truly listen – to William Bowe, Antony Green, and Kevin Bonham.

  29. SA is 7% of Australia’s population so 100/1400 is right proportion. Clearly the SA voting figures are out of wack and by more than the allowable margin of error for a sample of 100 (10%)- but equally in random theory they could be balanced out by opposite bias elsewhere.

    There is no basis for suggesting that there is some rural city bias in SA block of 100 voters unless the polling company is hopeless. Maybe quite a few urbanites were at Adelaide Festival, Fringe, Clipsal events or recovering from them when to phone rang?

  30. Nicholas

    What’s the problem with delaying the implemenatation of the Senate reforms until later in the year, thus removing the potential for them to be used as a threat against sitting Senators?

  33. There seem to be 2 certainties for eruptions around national election time.

    Governments which don’t have an effective Senate majority talk about a double dissolution election to try and pressure cross bench senators into backing down on blocked legislation (or to win some brownie points with their supporters who might benefit from the blocked legislation).

    Second there is an outbreak of feverish triangulation arguments about preferencing related to the bigger 3 parties.

    We have the misfortune to have them combined this time.

  35. Regarding Double Dissolution elections. I favour having one every time. Where is the sense in 6 year terms for Senators and 3 or less for HOR. And having a hangover for outgoing senators of up to 11 months. It somehow is supposed to protect the States or make it more difficult to change things.

    Providing a proportional voting system remains we will always get a more representative Senate form having simultaneous terms.

  36. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his family have retrieved some of their investment in a failed tech start-up as other wealthy and famous investors face losing $100 million, thanks to a deal struck with the company’s former chairman, ex-NSW Premier Nick Greiner.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/playup-pm-malcolm-turnbull-got-money-out-staff-missed-super-and-pay-20160309-gnf5xg?btis#ixzz42pEexvGV
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  38. C@

    but not practical sense. It would involve a referendum to make it happen – you couldn’t, for example, trust an agreement between the major parties that they would use a DD trigger every time. And it would be pretty silly to be putting up legislation just so it could be knocked back to allow a DD – a credible government only puts legislation it actually wants to pass forward.

  39. Any Senator worth their salt is capable of making their decisions based on the merits of the legislation, not the timing of the election. If they are intimidated by someone as weak as Malcolm Turnbull then they aren’t worth much as Senators. I think Labor is taking a very patronizing attitude towards the cross-bench Senators, portraying them as ciphers who cower in the corner and whimper “Please. Don’t. Hit. Me” like Labor does on national security, privacy, detention of asylum-seekers, and a federal ICAC.

    This is the first time a major change to the Senate voting rules has been viable in 32 years. These opportunities are extremely rare. It would be stupid to delay a change that has been examined exhaustively and has long been demonstrated as desirable just because Labor has Nixonian levels of paranoia and delusion about the Coalition’s motives. Delaying the changes almost certainly means killing the changes – anyone who doesn’t see that is naive. Labor’s backflip on the issue demonstrates how difficult it is to legislate in this area. Two years ago Labor supported the change, now they are disregarding evidence and verballing Antony Green in a thoroughly dishonest campaign. The Coalition supports the changes now, but if the changes are killed now it is likely that the Coalition will become just as paranoid and intellectually dishonest as Labor and the opportunity to improve the system will be lost for many years.

  40. New England Two-Candidate Preferred if Shenhua Mine Approved

    Joyce 44
    Windsor 56

    Shenhua won’t be approved before the election as there are too many outstanding issues and processes, but these numbers demonstrate the potency of the issue.

    Windsor’s clear and independent voice on environmental issues will get good coverage and be a major concern for the COALition. A lot of media coverage on subjects such as “What will Barnaby do in Retirement?”.

  41. …and, of course, if for some reason we went that route without Constitutional change, we would end up with governments which, by definition, never went full term. Given the push for government terms to be lengthened, not shortened, this would be counter productive.

  42. Nicholas

    It isn’t paranoia on anyone’s part. Turnbull has openly come out and used the reforms to threaten the crossbenchers.

    It isn’t a case of either/or – the Senate reforms can go through and the potential for them to be used for blackmail purposes can be removed at the same time. If any decent Senator can judge legislation on its merit, then half a dozen Greens can learn to walk and chew gum.

  43. http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2016/03/ipsos-53-47-and-rant-on-polling.html

    [I saw quite a lot of twitter outrage on this poll as I went to bed last night. The outraged were asking, how could Morgan and Ipsos have the Coalition at 53 per cent, when Newspoll-2 and Essential have it at 50 per cent? The outraged were disinclined to believe the latest Ipsos poll.

    I must admit my biases run the other way. Newspoll-2 and Essential do not appear to behave in a manner that is entirely consistent with statistical theory (with the caveat that Newspoll-2 is relatively new and the number of observations in this series is small). Both appear a little under-dispersed.]

  44. If anyone thinks people must be paranoid and delusional to mistrust the Coalition they either haven’t been around for very long or they are a rusted on Lib

  45. zoomster

    The constitution is clear. The Greens have no power to call an election. Just like Labor the most they can do is block legislation in the Senate.

    Therefore any blackmail over timing of an election is that of the PM and his party alone.

    The Greens like Labor and the Crossbench do not get to call elections.

  48. [ That Price Waterhouse Coopers survey is a great big bison. ]

    That is a holy sh$t WTF moment i think.

    I’m not so sure about the “lost production” aspect but even the direct cost and something like $132M to run the for/agin cases is enormous.

    SSM is just NOT an issue of such importance that it needs a plebiscite, and really, all the info we have is that enough people approve of it, or dont disapprove enough to stop it, so that parliament should deal with it.

    Just bloddy well legislate and move on!

  49. cokeefe9: BREAKING: Cunneen tapes will not be released publicly. Determination of Committee after legal advice. @9NewsSyd #nswpol

  50. paaptsef

    [If anyone thinks people must be paranoid and delusional to mistrust the Coalition….]
    Then they need to call me as I have a bridge to sell them and my cousin, the former Oil Minister in Nigeria, is dying to meet them.

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