Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition

The latest monthly Ipsos poll gives the Coalition its most encouraging result in some time.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a steadier for the Turnbull government, recording the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 after it sagged to 52-48 in the previous poll. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 45%, Labor is down one to 31%, and the Greens are down one to 14%. Nonetheless, the poll corroborates other recent polling in finding a plunge in support for Malcolm Turnbull, who is down seven on approval to 55% and up eight on disapproval to 32%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 33% and down three to 52%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from 64=19 to 61-22. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

The Australian also has a Newspoll result suggesting Tony Windsor is a real show in his bid to take New England back from Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce. The survey of 518 respondents shows Windsor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 46% for Joyce and 44% for Windsor. When respondents were prompted for how they would vote if the contentious Shenhua Watermark mine on Liverpool Plains was approved, Windsor took a 47% to 42% lead on the primary vote, and his lead after preferences extended to 56-44.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling aggregate from Essential Research has two-party preferred at 50-50 for the third week in a row, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – Coalition to 42%, Labor to 36% – and the Greens up one to 11%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on same-sex marriage (support up five points to 64% with opposition down four to 26%, and 66% favouring a plebiscite versus only 23% who think the matter should be decided by parliament) and climate change (63% say it’s caused by human activity, up seven since November, and 27% consider it natural fluctuation, down five; 57% think not enough is being done to address it, up four since August).

Other questions look in depth at the leaders, including a finding that 39% favour Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party (down three since December), with Julie Bishop on 12% (down one) and Tony Abbott on 9% (steady). Changes on the equivalent Labor question are slight, but Bill Shorten nonetheless pulls into the lead by gaining two points to 15%, with Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek both steady on 14%, and Chris Bowen up four to 7%. Questions on the attributes of the two leaders are fairly predictable in finding Malcolm Turnbull deteriorating across all measures since September, while Bill Shorten remains steady. Turnbull takes particularly heavy hits on understanding the problems facing Australia (down ten to 53%), being good in a crisis (down seven to 52%), and being visionary (down seven to 44%). Interestingly though, his biggest move is a drop in “aggressive”, from 38% to 24%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,404 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. roger @ 93

    The three polls in the last week or so have had wildly different primary votes for Labor. As usual, they should all be read with great caution.

  3. Steelydan, 98

    While respondent-allocated preferences are unreliable and therefore most psephs ignore them, I think Ipsos tends to preference non-ALP/Coalition parties as a lump, which, because of change within that segment (ie the Greens gaining 5% on the 2013 election result) makes it slightly biased against the ALP (who recieve less preferences considering “other” preferences split 50-50 and Greens preferences split 80-20)

  4. prettyone

    [So let’s attack his wife and family too and cause them hurt.

    Sure, that’s empathy.]

    So let’s forget his government’s attacks on gay people and their families causing them hurt.

    Sure, that’s empathy.

    Is prettyone short for prettyoneeyed?

  5. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-12/devonport-mayor-to-contest-senate-seat-for-the-jacquie-lambie-n/7242130?section=tas

    [Devonport Mayor Steve Martin will run for a Senate seat for the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) but said his priority remained with local government.

    Senator Lambie’s self-named political party is hoping to run two candidates in each state at the next federal election.]

    Not sure if this has been posted yet, but Lambie is in with a real shot at gaining another seat at the election (regardless if there’s a DD or not) with Steve Martin, especially if he’s got a good reputation and PV behind him.

  7. What does this mean, anyone? From Laura Tingle

    [The capacity for a large margin of error built in to the Ipsos South Australian figures in this latest poll, suggests the likely split may well be closer to 52 or 51 in the Coalition’s favour.]

  8. Yes, I suppose so TPOF, but they are the best measure we have.

    I sensed a bit of a steadying of the ship by Truffles last week, as he seems to be getting the better of Abbott.

    I think 52/48 to the Baddies is probably about right at this time.

    The budget is shaping as pivotal.

  9. Lefty I just took that to mean the Sth Australian sample could not be trusted at all and has the effect of distorting the whole poll, but I am only speculating.

  10. The urbanwronski article is good, particular how it does not forget to mention the right wing policies. Apparently Credlin announced the Medicare do-payment off her own bat.

    Also re the polls, confusing how the ALP primary vote is so variable, I could understand differences in how preferences are allocated leading to a different 2PP figure, but a single metric ?

  12. [ Fuck reality. The media will do its best to construct the narrative that Turnbull has miraculously delivered. ]

    If anything is going to win the libs the election it will be that. Depends on how badly or not they fwark up the 2016 budget.

  13. I do not see why people are freaking out at the 31% ALP figure. If you look at William’s graphs any poll in the range 31-35% is consistent with polling aggregates. Low end of the range for sure but not out of line by the MoE.

    I think as noted that Turnbull has steadied the ship a little this week – Lobbing a grenade back at Turnbull.

    I am not sure Labor did itself any favours by attacking the Greens this week. I generally think full frontal attack backfires. The key is to look calm and in control and the wild accusations against the Greens made Labor look a bit desperate. Albo lost most, not so much Shorten.

    The budget is critical.

  14. Yeah the phony war with the GRNs was overplayed, made the ALP look a bit nutty and irrational, jumping at phantoms

    Otherwise they’ve been traveling well v LNP

  15. Dtt @ 99

    Good post.
    I frankly don’t care if Abbott was bending Credlin over the desk every day.
    What I always found pretty alarming was, as you say, her encroachment as an unelected staff member in important diplomatic meetings and events.
    Talk about not knowing your place.
    Credlin was also known to be extremely active during question time where on more than one occasion she hurled abuse across the chamber.
    Totally inappropriate behaviour from a member of staff.
    The criticism shouldn’t be whether or not they were having an affair but Abbotts inability or unwillingness to pull her into line and read her the riot act.
    It was pretty obvious that she liked the hustle and bustle of parliament and that’s fine but if she wants to be a public player in politics she should of quit her job and sought preselection for a seat in parliament.

  16. Are full tables available for IPSOS? If there is a dodgy sample in S Australian figures this would be second time such an event is occuring. There was also a 50-50 poll right after 2015 budget that led commentators claim it was well received but it was revealed NSW had a dodgy sample.

  17. rb @ 108

    [The budget is shaping as pivotal.]

    I agree, but I still think that a long election campaign will be more critical. Head to head, and under pressure, Bill Shorten wipes the floor with Turnbull.

    Most Australians have been exposed to highly selective soundbites on the commercial news, or even only newspaper reports in passing. An election campaign has the effect of concentrating the minds of voters. Often it does not change their minds because they have a pretty good picture of the leaders and parties already and the campaign confirms that picture for most of them.

    This time, however, it will be different. Because the picture that most voters have is of a dysfunctional Labor Party led by a grey political machine hack with question marks over his head and with a penchant for Dad jokes. Those of us here who have been paying attention know this is nowhere near the reality. As swinging voters start to pay attention many – enough to change their votes to Labor – will see this too.

  18. I also don’t think phony GRN VS ALP war have any impact on 2PP. I don’t think this kind of political games impact on voting intentions or register with any swing voters.

  20. Both Ipsos and Morgan have consistently come up with Labor primary numbers seemingly lower than what the average has been showing. It can’t just be MOE as its too consistent. It has to have something to do with methodology but I’ll leave that to the experts.

    The 53/47 result tonight is consistent with the primary numbers and roughly a 80/20 preference split for the Greens and 50/50 for others.

    I think we are sitting somewhere around 51/49 to 52/48 probably in the lower part of that range. BT is pretty close I reckon.

  21. Colton

    Absolutely.

    I think that the whole credlin affair and to an extent the reigns of both Rudd and Gillard, call into question the roles of political staffers. These staffers are unelected and often not even active within their parties. they are out of touch with the electorate and their parties. Often they are very young or with a narrow skill set. They then try to tackle policy which is complex and opften get it very very wrong.

    Abbott Chose credlin, an out of touch, aggressive micro-manager

    Gillard seemed to rely heavily on an imprted Brit, who seemed to have limited connection to Australian electoral sensitivities

    Rudd relied on excessivley young and brash technocrats.

    All three would have fared better if they had used career public servants more and political operatives and staffers more.

    Howard chose Sinodinos, clearly a clever operative with finger on pulse. Howard survived longest. Interestingly it was AFTER Sinodinos left that Howard seemed to rely more heavily on Jannette, and his political judgement also seemed to falter. Jannette was perhaps intervening in policy matters more than was wise.

    Wives, lovers, fathers, mothers etc rarely can identify faults because they are so used to them. Also there is always a tendency to group think when you rely on friends and family.

  22. [Yeah the phony war with the GRNs was overplayed, made the ALP look a bit nutty and irrational, jumping at phantoms]

    Oh please. The only people that insider shit resonates with is rusted on voters who post on places like PB.

  23. David WH

    I pretty well agree with you. The gloss has come off Turnbull but they are still in 52-53% territory. The budget is absolutely critical. If turnbull can deliver a fair budget that seems sensible, then he will win the election. If he fumbles and makes a mess of it, he is toast.

  24. Confessions and Gorkay

    I do not think the whole preference issue has much of an impact on voters at all. However Labor seemed to be carrying on a bit too much and therefore probably looked a bit panicked.

    The thing is the Labor attack on the Greens coincided with a slightly better performance by Turnbull. NOTE I said SLIGHTLY better.

    I think we can expect the polls to stick around the 52% LNP mark until the budget unless of course Abbott and Credlin have another grenade or three.

  25. DTT that’s a pretty reasonable but I would add one extra qualification. If the Coalition continue to act as a disorganized rabble then the budget will need to be really well received. They have to get their act together or Labor will be a good chance.

  26. David WH

    Yes I fully agree. I am stunned at the disorganisation in the coalition and at the level of animosity.
    much longer.

    I seriously wonder if the coalition can long exist as a party. There seems to be far too wide a gap between the sane moderates and the RW extremist ratbags.

  27. PS sorry for the odd words in all my posts. My PC jumps around and i suddenly find I am typing in a paragraph before. I try to correct but often miss it. I am too impatient to be a good proof reader.

  28. It is indeed the case that Ipsos has a dubious looking result from South Australia (64-36 to the Coalition), keeping in mind that you’d often expect it would do, given we’re talking a sample of barely more than 100 here. If you substitute it with a more normal looking result, it makes about 1% difference to the national total. Mind you, the poll also has Labor doing 1% worse on its respondent-allocated preferences result.

  29. can you also talk about the 3% margin of error because when combined with other polls Labor could be in front wwhich changes the whole attitude of the poll

  30. DTT @127

    [There seems to be far too wide a gap between the sane moderates and the RW extremist ratbags.]

    I think they’re expecting to lose 10 seats in the HoR.

    And these ten will be “sane moderates” rather than “RW extremist ratbags”

    And then …

  33. [If turnbull can deliver a fair budget that seems sensible, then he will win the election. If he fumbles and makes a mess of it, he is toast.]

    On that basis Malcolm is grill de jour.

  34. [Miranda Devine repeats her assertion on sky news channel re Turnbull making a pact with the Greens]

    That may well have more impact in the real world than our yabbering here.

  36. [The thing is the Labor attack on the Greens coincided with a slightly better performance by Turnbull. NOTE I said SLIGHTLY better.]

    It’s just that he hasn’t lost a Minister for weeks!

    It might also be that the headlines over the Savva book might have revived, briefly, our gratitude to Malcolm for supplanting the worst PM in Australian history.

  37. William

    Given the antipathy we have seen in SA towards the Liberals since Abbott shafted them over the subs wouldn’t we expect the SA sample to favour Labour anyway.

    Or to put it another way, not only does the extent of the margin in favour of the Liberals look out of proportion but the very fact that it favours the Liberals at all looks odd.

  39. davidwh @ 125

    [If the Coalition continue to act as a disorganized rabble then the budget will need to be really well received. ]

    My assessment has been that if the Coalition continue to act as a disorganised rabble, they could deliver an economic program of towering genius and planning and will still lose.

    Disunity is a touchstone for the voting public. As far as non-committed voters are concerned, If a party is squabbling loudly and publicly amongst itself it cannot possibly be doing the best job for the country and should thus be tossed out.

  41. From the Philip Hudson article linked by imacca @ 138

    [The Opposition Leader yesterday sought to soothe voter fears about returning to Labor by saying the ALP was now united after the turmoil of the Rudd and Gillard years. He vowed that “Labor has learnt its lessons”.

    He said it was the Coalition that was now in chaos and at war with itself after its change from Tony Abbott to Mr Turnbull, and the Prime Minister was failing to make decisions.]

    This will be a very powerful argument as the election campaign progresses because it is demonstrably true. It reinforces the point in my post at 139.

    And the special Newspoll in New England has made my night. Although I’m surprised by how high the primaries are. Looks like a lot of Labor and Greens voters are going to preference Windsor first just to see Barnaby gone.

  42. [The comments are the best thing about the article – including the results :D]

    All those people projecting their miserable spite onto the voters of New England. I bet not a single one actually lives there.

  44. Just wondering how the SA number could be 64 to coalition in a week during which my take home message was the federal government gave 3000 jobs to Spain in preference to SA

    Not saying that’s accurate, I don’t know, but it’s certainly the headline message

  45. Also from the Philip Hudson article:

    Barnaby Joyce risks becoming the first deputy prime minister to lose his seat at an election, according to a Newspoll which reveals a two-candidate swing against the Nationals leader of 16 percentage points in his rural NSW seat of New England.

    The special Newspoll, taken on Saturday exclusively for The Australian, shows Mr Joyce is neck-and-neck with Tony Windsor on the primary vote but the independent former MP would win back the seat by 52 per cent to 48 per cent based on preference flows.

  46. I mean, I understand how it can be (sample size)

    But it’s inconceivable that the real number is anything like that

  47. Gorkay King
    Posted Monday, March 14, 2016 at 12:00 am | PERMALINK
    I also don’t think phony GRN VS ALP war have any impact on 2PP. I don’t think this kind of political games impact on voting intentions or register with any swing voters.

    —–greens will lose first preferences – labor gain (its not phoney – not this month)

  48. Malcolm Turnbull has even written the devastating election campaign message that could bring his government down:

    “It is clear enough that the Government is not successful in providing the economic leadership that we need.

    “It is not the fault of individual ministers. Ultimately, the Prime Minister has not been capable of providing the economic leadership our nation needs. He has not been capable of providing the economic confidence that business needs.”

    Labor could even pinch the “innovative” bit with enough of the right policies attached to it 😉

  50. I could not give a stuff whether Abbott and Credlin were having an affair though birds of a feather, even the obnoxious.

    what I do object to is that a staff member can dictate to an elected member in such a way as in this

    ?w=960

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