Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition

The latest monthly Ipsos poll gives the Coalition its most encouraging result in some time.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a steadier for the Turnbull government, recording the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 after it sagged to 52-48 in the previous poll. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 45%, Labor is down one to 31%, and the Greens are down one to 14%. Nonetheless, the poll corroborates other recent polling in finding a plunge in support for Malcolm Turnbull, who is down seven on approval to 55% and up eight on disapproval to 32%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 33% and down three to 52%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from 64=19 to 61-22. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

The Australian also has a Newspoll result suggesting Tony Windsor is a real show in his bid to take New England back from Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce. The survey of 518 respondents shows Windsor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 46% for Joyce and 44% for Windsor. When respondents were prompted for how they would vote if the contentious Shenhua Watermark mine on Liverpool Plains was approved, Windsor took a 47% to 42% lead on the primary vote, and his lead after preferences extended to 56-44.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling aggregate from Essential Research has two-party preferred at 50-50 for the third week in a row, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – Coalition to 42%, Labor to 36% – and the Greens up one to 11%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on same-sex marriage (support up five points to 64% with opposition down four to 26%, and 66% favouring a plebiscite versus only 23% who think the matter should be decided by parliament) and climate change (63% say it’s caused by human activity, up seven since November, and 27% consider it natural fluctuation, down five; 57% think not enough is being done to address it, up four since August).

Other questions look in depth at the leaders, including a finding that 39% favour Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party (down three since December), with Julie Bishop on 12% (down one) and Tony Abbott on 9% (steady). Changes on the equivalent Labor question are slight, but Bill Shorten nonetheless pulls into the lead by gaining two points to 15%, with Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek both steady on 14%, and Chris Bowen up four to 7%. Questions on the attributes of the two leaders are fairly predictable in finding Malcolm Turnbull deteriorating across all measures since September, while Bill Shorten remains steady. Turnbull takes particularly heavy hits on understanding the problems facing Australia (down ten to 53%), being good in a crisis (down seven to 52%), and being visionary (down seven to 44%). Interestingly though, his biggest move is a drop in “aggressive”, from 38% to 24%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,404 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. prettyone@48

    On the book, Savva merely passed on the perceptions of those close to Abbott and Credlin.

    In a book widely published around Australia that distinctly hints very strongly Tony Abbott was unfaithful.

    You’ve got to try some empathy here and see how that would feel to a faithful and loving husband, but more than anything, to his wife and children.

    Just have a thinks about how that would feel.

    Words fail me.

  2. [So we’ll be seeing more of the happy couple like this then? 😉 ]

    I have to say I do have a great deal of sympathy for Mrs Abbott.

    Those reports last year about her being sidelined by Credlin from having any involvement in Abbott’s duties as PM take on a whole new interpretation when viewed through the claims in Savva’s book about the perceptions by Abbott’s colleagues as to the Abbott-Credlin relationship.

  3. prettyone

    I think you are right about public sympathy for Margie and the children.

    However as usual Abbott and Credlin are milking for all its worth and on Insiders we saw the result.

    Now the talk has turned to how Abbott has failed to run his office properly and if he really was fit to be PM.

    So while the sympathy for the family will remain there will be no political dividend for Abbott from it.

    The less said about an affair the better. After all the issue is about how the PMO was being run not the private life.

  4. Petty One

    [ Would it have occurred to you that N. Savva’s book has distressed the Abbott family. ]

    You don’t seriously think anything in Savva’s book will have surprised them, do you? Obviously Margie and the girls knew everything we now know a long time before we did. They went on holidays together (without Margie) for goodness sake! Margie put up with it then, why should she be upset by it now?

  5. I still think Truffles will come a cropper. And Barnaby now has to control his facial reddening for the length of the campaign or get hold of Abbott’s make-up artist.

  6. I suspect people are giving Turnbull the benefit of the doubt until they see the budget.

    They assume he will be good for the economy because he has personal wealth. If the budget is a dud he will wear the blame more than anyone.

  7. guytaur

    I’m glad you’re around. Did you see my posts on the census a few hours ago? I thought with all the Greens hand-wringing about ‘metadata’ and ‘privacy’ they would have had something to say about the undermining of our privacy implicit in the government’s sneaky announcement about the census.

    But apparently not. It seems the Greens have not even noticed!

  8. P1

    I think you are right to be concerned. There are many people who are reluctant to do the census. Especially migrants from countries that have experienced political dictatorship of one form or another.

    The Magneto theme in X Men is a prime example of this in popular culture.

    Most of the population is not on Centrelink payments and are not used to giving the government that amount of information when connected to who they are.

    I fully expect to see a drop in people doing the Census as a result with all the bad results that come from not collecting information that entails

  9. Turnbull is Abbott lite. He’s better at administration, saner, isn’t an international embarrasment and probably won’t start a war, but he’s still pushing the IPA agenda and pandering to the religious right.

    He’s had the benefit of the doubt. We’ve had 5 years of revolving door PMs, now it’s time for one more turn to tip out Malcolm. The ‘Liberals’ need to be purged by a few terms in Opposition before they can be considered remotely ready for Government, basically until everyone associated with the Abbott Government has left the field.

  10. guytaur

    [ I fully expect to see a drop in people doing the Census as a result with all the bad results that come from not collecting information that entails ]

    Agreed. More people would simply refuse to complete it if they knew all their personal and financial details could be known to anyone in the government who wants to see them. Perhaps that’s why it has not been publicized.

    At the very least, I expect we will see a lot more people putting their religion down as ‘Jedi’. We may even see it becoming the dominant religion amongst the young!

  11. Anyone with any residual sympathy for Ms Credlin and Mr Abbott should turn to pages 215 to 217 of Ms Savva’s book, and read the prodigiously insulting email Ms Credlin sent to one Peter Charlton, described as a “publisher, businessman and Liberal fundraiser”.

    Any public servant who sent such a message would be put on a Code of Conduct charge.

  12. Steve777

    [ The ‘Liberals’ need to be purged by a few terms in Opposition before they can be considered remotely ready for Government, basically until everyone associated with the Abbott Government has left the field. ]


  13. guytaur

    [ The consolation of Jedi becoming Australia’s dominant religion is that we know its fiction. :grin:]

    Excellent point! 🙂

  14. Bill Shorten should be pleased. He has held the party together extremely well since the Gillard years. No leaks, just unity. It’s a big achievement.

    Except till Steve Smith. Labor need to put this chap out of the picture and let their hard working WA leader get on with it and have his chance.

  15. P1
    [Perhaps that’s why it has not been publicized.]
    And yet u except the Greens to know about it.

    ABS released the details about its data retention just before Christmas. I guess you expect the Greens and their staffers can’t have holidays then.

    Even Delimiter, a site dedicated to “exclusively cover technology in the Australian context — including enterprise IT case studies, the IT industry, telecommunications and digital rights and local consumer technology launches'” had a short piece about it only on 1/2/2016.

    Just because you can not find any media reports about it doesn’t necessarily mean the Greens, or Scott Ludlam in particular, is not aware of the issue and will bring it up at a later date.

  16. Tony, Peta and Frances. No Margie.

    good grief, he’s having an affair with his daughter in attendance ….

    Nonsense, Player One.

  17. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/mar/13/nick-xenophon-calls-for-penalties-in-politician-entitlement-scheme
    [Independent senator Nick Xenophon has called on the major parties to agree to a more transparent parliamentary entitlement scheme as parliamentarians await the release of the review in the wake of the Bronwyn Bishop choppergate scandal.

    Tony Abbott instituted the review in August last year….

    Xenophon urged the committee to put in place a more transparent system, which would see monthly entitlements published and tougher penalties to force MPs to pay back twice the amount claimed for cases of abuse.

    He said if the review recommends a “bit of window dressing”, parliamentary entitlements would become an election issue.

    But it has been reported by Fairfax that the review would not recommend a major overhaul in the system but rather a new framework to review and monitor claims.]
    Fairfax article: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/politicians-to-keep-perks-in-wake-of-bronwyn-bishop-choppergate-report-20160311-gnh7s2.html

  18. Did one better C@t -though I am angry bc one answer came up before I’d seen all possibles as I slid finger across trackpad!

  19. Petty One

    [ Nonsense, Player One. ]

    I can only point the facts out to you. I can’t make you believe them.

    At the very least, it highlights the unhealthy ‘co-dependence’ that Abbott had with Credlin, which meant that he preferred holidaying with her rather than with Margieeven when the kids were involved.

    Do you still maintain that anything Savva said would have been a surprise to Margie and the family?

  20. i think abbott is much worse – is being much worse – than rudd in retribution – rudd was seriously traumatised by his party – for good reason and stupid of them not to expect that – but abbott is a long term bully who has now found him opponents in his own party – he loves division, even anarchy, over order and government – his damage will be scorched earth in effects

  21. Do you still maintain that anything Savva said would have been a surprise to Margie and the family?
    From an affair to “dependence”?

    It’s a nasty accusation and causes distress to families. We are told families should be kept out of politics but as its Tony Abbott that does not apply, it seems.

    Indeed, Ms Fierravanti-Wells asked for a reference from Tony Abbott just days before telling N.Savva that there was an affair going on.

    Nasty awful people that M. Turnbull surrounds himself with.

  22. prettyOne,

    So all our hearts should melt as we consider how Abbott and his family must have been hurt by the accusation of infidelity in Savva’s book.

    This being the same Abbott that is strongly opposed to marriage equality, has pushed for a plebiscite that will unleash a torrent of abuse for gay people and supports Benardi who equates homosexuality and bestiality.

    Sorry, but I’m just not feeling al that much empathy for Abbott and his family.

  23. Four updates on the ABC news internet still no mention of the ethnicity of the gang involved. Way to go ABC, they did report that one of the witnesses said he was ashamed to be a Melburnian, I don’t know why I doubt that mob even see themselves as Australian but we cant discuss why they hate there new country.

  24. Sorry, but I’m just not feeling al that much empathy for Abbott and his family.

    I know. I’m quite aware people of the left hate TA and his family and friends too.

    My point is M. Turnbull and his right hand man, Ms Savva’s husband, have encouraged this nastiness and caused hurt to TA’s for political benefit.

    It’s the measure of the man that is M. Turnbull, I guess.

  25. Pegasus

    [ And yet u except the Greens to know about it. ]

    Well, in short yes!

    Weren’t they in parliament and the senate when this went through? The Greens were so critical of Labor for backing the government on the metadata laws, yet they apparently completely missed a much more critical invasion of our privacy such as this. Is this hypocrisy or just plain old incompetence?

  26. Petty One

    [ From an affair to “dependence”? ]

    I think you were the one to mention an ‘affair’. I didn’t. Neither did Savva.

  27. If Labor have a 31% primary, there is no chance they can win. They need at least 38% and probably more.

    Disappointing poll.

  28. It would appear that Ms Credlin is now copping some payback after years of treating many people atrociously. A perfect example of the proposition that you should treat people nicely on the way up because you will pass them again on your way down. It’s interesting that the claims of rampant bullying and abuse really haven’t been disputed.

    If the claims in Ms Savva’s book were untrue, I would have thought that Ms Credlin would sue, and get a big payout (which she will probably need, since the book has now rendered her all but unemployable). If she doesn’t sue, the implications will be obvious.

  29. Prettyone

    [I know. I’m quite aware people of the left hate TA and his family and friends too.]

    ..and how much empathy have you developed for gay couples that want to get married and gay kids that don’t want to get bullied at school?

    Perhaps Abbott is just reaping as he has sown on the matter of empathy.

  30. pedant @ 94:

    Yes I completely agree.

    But what all this also says is just how riven with division the coalition party room is.

  31. Perhaps Abbott is just reaping as he has sown on the matter of empathy.

    So let’s attack his wife and family too and cause them hurt.

    Sure, that’s empathy.

  32. Did this poll use current respondent preferences or the last elections, there will be a big difference in favor of the coalition this time around.

  33. As I see it the issue of an affair between Abbott and Credlin is irrelevant. Of much, much greater significance were the issues regarding her speaking in diplomatic meetings and having tantrums when overseas. it would not matter if they were boss and staffer, son and mother, brother ans sister, husband and wife or PM and lover.

    The reality is that Credlin was stepping outside her role and into areas of diplomacy for which she was not sufficiently skilled – nor was Abbott, which is why you would expect a caree diplomat to be on hand at important meetings, not an unskilled private secretary.

  34. I still have a tape somewhere of the old Naked Vicar show from ABC radio in the 1970s, in which they did a skit about election night commentaries. One female commentator was satirised as “Senior Lecturer in Advanced Histrionics and Applied Cosmetics”. I was reminded of this when reading Ms Savva’s book.

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