Essential Research: 50-50

The Essential Research rolling aggregate records an unusually sharp move away from the Coalition, and finds strong support for Senate reform legislation.

The normally placid Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a rare two-point shift on two-party preferred this week, which eliminates a settled 52-48 lead for the Coalition over previous weeks. Particularly remarkable is a three point increase in the Labor primary vote, from 35% to 38%, although the Coalition is down only one to 43%, and the Greens are steady on 10%. Also featured is a very detailed question on Senate reform, in which the legislation was explained to respondents in meticulous detail, producing a result of 53% approval and 16% disapproval. A question on election timing finds 56% wanting the election held later this year versus 23% who want it called early, although the distinction is an increasingly fine one. Also featured: most important election issues (health topping the list, followed by economic and cost-of-living concerns), best party to handle them (Labor for industrial relations and environment, Coalition for national security and the economy, although Labor has a slight lead on housing affordability) and perceptions of the parties as right or left wing (indicating Labor is seen as more centrist than the Coalition, although there is little sense that this has changed in recent years). This week’s poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1017, with the voting intention numbers also including the survey results from the previous week’s poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,038 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 14 of 21
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  2. @DisplayName

    You’re right, it looks like TPOF tried to change the subject from Joe Bullock / preselection process.

    @TPOF
    Yes, Greens leadership is decided by party room (A process selected and reaffirmed annually by the Greens membership). Greens preselection and ticket order is decided by ballot of members. I know in some states Labor uses ballots as well, I am wondering if Bullock’s successor has to face a ballot or is just appointed.

    From mimhoff’s and Puff’s comments it sounds like it is (proudly) MP by appointment.

  4. PG
    [You’re right, it looks like TPOF tried to change the subject from Joe Bullock / preselection process.]
    Or he just misunderstood which ballot to replace Milne you were talking about …

  5. lizzie @ 648,

    Every time Turnbull talks of technology and a new economy I get angry because of Fraudband.

    But you ARE allowed to get Fibre to the Premises if you are prepared to pay $5000 for the privilege.

  6. [From mimhoff’s and Puff’s comments it sounds like it is (proudly) MP by appointment.]

    That’s not what I said at all.

  8. C@t @ 651
    The argument goes that there are already plenty of people doing that.

    However, from personal experience, I know Peg graciously allows others this same logic so it’s all good.

  9. Labor should reply we were busy ensuring safety of military personnel from bastardisation, rape and abuse so recruitment could continue to that Turnbull answer

  10. Donald Trump reckons his heart is bigger than anyone’s. Let’s prove it. Malcolm, Tony, Little Johnny, George and Donald can have a ‘heart-off’. Someone will need to supply a microscope and a sharp knife.

  12. I think it is an indictment on our society that the only way an Indigenous person of high regard, competence and experience can get into our parliament is with the sponsorship of a white leader, but I am glad the ALp has leaders who will do it.

  15. From today’s Crikey:

    Rainbow Labor will march in Mardi Gras this weekend with the Labor leader marching alongside them for the very first time. Labor has also co-signed legislation for marriage equality and promised to introduce legislation for marriage equality if elected this year. The float will be on the theme of Gough Whitlam’s old “It’s Time” slogan.

    🙂

  17. Catmomma

    [Notice how Pegasus never reports breathlessly about the ‘strained tensions’ inside the Coalition?]

    I have noticed. Very odd…

  18. Perhaps some credit could go to…
    Jieh-Yung Lo: https://thelab.laborherald.com.au/party-on/strengthening-labors-cultural-diversity/
    [To ensure there is genuine engagement between the ALP and multicultural communities, Wesa Chau and I co-founded Poliversity.

    Poliversity is a partisan independent body that promotes culturally diverse leadership, representation and recognition in the ALP. Our mission is simple but important: to advocate for cultural diversity leadership and representation within Labor to achieve a more balanced and equitable representation that reflects the multicultural make-up of Australia.

    As with gender diversity, cultural diversity deserves equal attention and priority within the ALP.

    Poliversity is here to work with Labor and multicultural communities to achieve two key objectives: increased representation of MPs from multicultural backgrounds, and genuine engagement between the party and multicultural communities on policy discussions.]

    Poliversity is founded by Australian Labor Party members Wesa Chau and Jieh-Yung Lo.

    http://poliversity.org.au/

  19. To be honest, as a Greens voter I actually approve of equal-opportunity preselection quotas. I don’t always approve of the outcomes as done by Labor, but they’re trying to improve their Parliamentary team’s representation, which is a good thing.

  21. “Notice how Pegasus never reports breathlessly about the ‘strained tensions’ inside the Coalition?

    I have noticed. Very odd…”

    Why would the Greens attack their political ally?

  22. C@tmomma@653

    lizzie @ 648,

    Every time Turnbull talks of technology and a new economy I get angry because of Fraudband.

    But you ARE allowed to get Fibre to the Premises if you are prepared to pay $5000 for the privilege.

    I think the amount is a thousand or two dollars cheaper than that, but yeah, it serves as a discouragement in getting it.

    I might just have to bite the bullet when they roll it out where I live.

  23. zoomster@643

    Phoenix Green

    Alas, votes of the members often don’t select people we need to select in a diverse society.

    Labor has long recognised this, with its EO rules.

    The Liberals recognised this, in their original Constitution, where half of all party positions were reserved for women.

    To get Nova Peris into the Senate, Gillard had to over ride party preselections. As she said at the time, these had shown themselves to be an impediment to having indigenous Australians as candidates.

    If the Greens are going to change their look from that of a white middle class persons party, they are going to have to find ways to preselect non white middle class candidates.

    Sorry zoomster, “Captain’s Picks” are just the wrong way to go and it doesn’t matter who the captain is or who the pick is.

    The legitimacy of candidates is undermined by proper process not being followed and running the pre-selection which they would almost certainly win anyway.

    Otherwise, why bother having rules to allow rank and file involvement in pre-selections?

  25. Airlines @659:

    [In both Batman and Wills, non-white women were selected to contest by the current system.]

    Are either of those seats winnable by the Greens? One thing I particularly like about the ALP’s preselection quotas is that they’re predicated on winnable seats only.

  26. Last Paragraph in that editorial from the Saturday Paper

    [The Liberal Party should disendorse Bernardi and encourage him to run on a platform of his beliefs, unprotected by factional racketeering. If the country finds fit to elect him then, it is a more terrible place than any of us could have thought.]

  27. @Matt

    Very much winnable, especially if you ask a Green. They are serious candidates and Samantha Ratnam in Wills is a sitting Greens mayor from that area.

  28. samanthamaiden: Well, that’s progress folks. After months of being white anted by Abbott camp, Malcolm Turnbull has called in the army AND the coppers.

  30. You could argue that when people vote for someone, they are voting for the strategies those individuals employ. That would include the formation of these party things with whatever rules they use.

    And soon voters will be able to conveniently* specify as many or few nuances to those strategies as they wish – out of the choice of nuances presented to them, that is, so there’s considerably coarse granularity there that still can’t be overcome.

    *read: as opposed to _inconveniently_ rather than _not at all_

  31. I can’t help but feel like we must be on the verge of some major policy announcement, because Turnbull is a sitting duck right now and doesn’t seem to be doing anything about it.

  32. FarrellPF: I do wonder whether Greg Sheridan will have any concerns about his phone and web metadata potentially being accessed

  33. One has to feel very sorry for Andrew Bolt. It is obvious that in his haste to get to Rome he left behind his Forensic Dissection Toolkit that he used so well against Rudd, Gillard & Shorten. That would explain his current state of confusion.

    Perhaps the Australian Border Force chappies at Sydney airport confiscated it; what with all those sharp thingies and blunt instruments.

  38. Has Malcolm Turnbull called in the Army and the plods to work out who dropped the Draft Defence White paper to Sheridan and the Monkey Podders?

    That would be about 90% of the Military with access to it surely? 😉

  39. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@660

    I think it is an indictment on our society that the only way an Indigenous person of high regard, competence and experience can get into our parliament is with the sponsorship of a white leader, but I am glad the ALp has leaders who will do it.

    This is not so.

    Burney would almost certainly have won any pre-selection as I think Nova Peris would have.

    I perceive an unjustified lack of trust in the membership.

  40. I know you have all been wondering, as have I, just what happened to Mark Simkin? Well, wonder no longer 🙂

    #SimkinWatch. The last time many of us saw former ABC political reporter-turned-Tony Abbott staffer Mark Simkin, he was looking dejected next to Peta Credlin at a function marking the end of Tony Abbott’s reign as prime minister. But Simkin has turned up elsewhere, and although it’s no PMO, it’s no small position: Simkin is listed as the media contact for Social Services Minister Christian Porter. A tipster says: “Most journos wouldn’t have much reason to find that out because Social Services isn’t exactly front page news most days — it’s where Abbott sent Scott Morrison in hopes of diminishing his rise in the party.” Porter was once touted as a future premier in WA before moving to federal politics in 2013 and gaining a major ministry within three years. Maybe Simkin is looking to hitch his cart to a future winner?

  42. bemused @ 687,

    I think Nova Peris would have.

    Nope. Trish Crossin had the numbers sewn up and was prepared to use them to stick around in the Senate.

  43. Pegasus@666

    Perhaps some credit could go to…
    Jieh-Yung Lo: https://thelab.laborherald.com.au/party-on/strengthening-labors-cultural-diversity/

    To ensure there is genuine engagement between the ALP and multicultural communities, Wesa Chau and I co-founded Poliversity.

    Poliversity is a partisan independent body that promotes culturally diverse leadership, representation and recognition in the ALP. Our mission is simple but important: to advocate for cultural diversity leadership and representation within Labor to achieve a more balanced and equitable representation that reflects the multicultural make-up of Australia.

    As with gender diversity, cultural diversity deserves equal attention and priority within the ALP.

    Poliversity is here to work with Labor and multicultural communities to achieve two key objectives: increased representation of MPs from multicultural backgrounds, and genuine engagement between the party and multicultural communities on policy discussions.


    Poliversity is founded by Australian Labor Party members Wesa Chau and Jieh-Yung Lo.

    http://poliversity.org.au/

    I know Jieh-Yung Lo and was for a time in the same ALP branch. He was also a local councillor.

    A name to watch out for I think.

    I have expressed my support for Poliversity.

  48. So Simkin has hitched his wagon to the donkey that put WA in a massive structural deficit during the iron ore boom-times? What a dope.

  49. Lorax – my one remaining objection is the savings provision that sees votes with fewer expressed preferences accepted as formal and ‘exhausted’ but I am more than happy with the outcome.

    I’m nothing like a rusted on however!

    I’ll be interested to see what happens to the field of Senate candidates. A lot of so-called parties may well just fold as there seems to be little point in running if you know you have absolutely no hope of approaching a quota even with preferences

  50. [David Marler
    David Marler – ‏@Qldaah

    Turnbull Government fiercely defending negative gearing, which is where Labor want them. #qt
    7:38 PM – 1 Mar 2016
    4 RETWEETS3 LIKES]

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