Essential Research: 50-50

The Essential Research rolling aggregate records an unusually sharp move away from the Coalition, and finds strong support for Senate reform legislation.

The normally placid Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a rare two-point shift on two-party preferred this week, which eliminates a settled 52-48 lead for the Coalition over previous weeks. Particularly remarkable is a three point increase in the Labor primary vote, from 35% to 38%, although the Coalition is down only one to 43%, and the Greens are steady on 10%. Also featured is a very detailed question on Senate reform, in which the legislation was explained to respondents in meticulous detail, producing a result of 53% approval and 16% disapproval. A question on election timing finds 56% wanting the election held later this year versus 23% who want it called early, although the distinction is an increasingly fine one. Also featured: most important election issues (health topping the list, followed by economic and cost-of-living concerns), best party to handle them (Labor for industrial relations and environment, Coalition for national security and the economy, although Labor has a slight lead on housing affordability) and perceptions of the parties as right or left wing (indicating Labor is seen as more centrist than the Coalition, although there is little sense that this has changed in recent years). This week’s poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1017, with the voting intention numbers also including the survey results from the previous week’s poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,038 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 13 of 21
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  2. I think those numbers are supposed to automatically update, because they do change, but they are always odd. A few weeks back when they had the sample that pushed the LNP TTP +1 the margin reported it as +1 to the ALP.

  5. shiftaling@534

    You don’t need to be politically engaged to be able to understand the sentence “number at least 6 boxes”

    If you can’t understand that sentence, then your ability to express your intention at the ballot box has to seriously be in question

    Hear! Hear! I was hoping that there is a sunset clause in there to get rid of the provision once people get used to the new system.

  6. The shift in the Greens thinking over the Senate reforms is interesting.

    For starters, if a half day enquiry resulted in a couple of changes, imagine what a serious one would have resulted in!

    Secondly, it seems to confirm (i) that the original deal was too rushed, and did not take into account what a DD held under the proposed rules may have meant and (ii) that rumours of dissent in the Greens camp were correct.

    Even this morning, di Natale was maintaining (at the doors) that the new laws should apply regardless of when the election was held. Only a few hours later, he’s modified that stance.

  7. zoomster

    [ Even this morning, di Natale was maintaining (at the doors) that the new laws should apply regardless of when the election was held. Only a few hours later, he’s modified that stance. ]

    The Greens are nothing if not flexible. Like a willow in the breeze 🙂

  9. Bolt has been a big supporter of Pell but even he has decided Pell’s lack of morals and basic humanity is too much to stomach. Bolt actually flew over to Rome to hear the testimony.

    [CARDINAL George Pell ­yesterday uttered words that will stain his reputation forever.

    Referring to notorious paedophile priest Gerald Ridsdale, Pell fatefully declared: “It’s a sad story and it wasn’t of much interest to me.”]

  11. Raaraa I would agree with a sunset clause regarding valid votes with fewer than 6 prefs except for the fact that it would confuse matters even more, requiring an education campaign at the impending sunset as well as initially!

  12. shiftaling@610

    Raaraa I would agree with a sunset clause regarding valid votes with fewer than 6 prefs except for the fact that it would confuse matters even more, requiring an education campaign at the impending sunset as well as initially!

    I think that if a voter can’t read instructions after a few elections, then their vote deserves to be wasted.

    The ballot papers will say to number at least 6 (or 12 in a DD, and 2 in a territory).

  13. I’m impressed that the Labor party managed to conduct the ballot to choose Bullock’s replacement overnight. They must have SMS voting set up or something. Greens could learn something from them in that regard, the ballot to replace Christine Milne took months and cost a small fortune.

  14. Diogenes

    Bolt has since retreated.

    This is from The Age today:

    Columnist Andrew Bolt, who attacked Cardinal Pell in his column today, has retreated from that position. On television this morning he said he felt “embarrassed because I think I’ve joined the pack attacking Pell.”

    He said: “In retrospect, if you look at those comments of his, he spoke incredibly poorly but to think he didn’t care about abused children, which is so widely agreed to what his words suggested, is actually false.”

    He said: “Where the exaggeration has occurred is in thinking that he knows of abuse and he doesn’t care. And that fits a stereotype. You’ve just got to think, I guess, in retrospect, really is that seriously contended a man like him (who) devoted 50 years to this church hears of abused children and he doesn’t care? You’ve got to really think he’s a sociopath, as some people clearly do, and I think that’s highly improbable.”

  16. IW

    That’s a pretty muted retreat. I’m not sure Pell would be happy to hear that his biggest supporter only thinks it’s “highly improbable” that he’s a sociopath.

  17. zoomster and guytaur – back a bit

    I take your point about Garrett. Perhaps he was given the wrong portfolio. Perhaps he was hung to dry by Rudd.

    He was just and example which came to mind about the risk of celebrity candidates.

    My main point was that celebrity is just not enough on its own. That’s all.

    Shorten’s/Labor’s choice of Senate replacement looks to have ticked many boxes.

    Let’s hope this works.

  19. The 2016 Sydney Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras festival is underway.

    I’m looking forward to this Saturday when Bill and C@tmomma and I will join thousands of Australians and international visitors to march and celebrate as part of the Mardi Gras parade.

    Just finished making my Mardi Gras prop a few minutes ago. 🙂

  20. Diogenes @ 617,

    I think Pell showed all the hallmarks of a sociopath yesterday; no conscience and no contrition and no emotion.

    Pell and Abbott, Birds of a Feather.

  21. Somneone said yesterday, sending up our beloved PM: “I’m not a narcissist, I just don’t notice other people.” Possibly a bit unfair when applied to Turnblimp, but it seems to sum up Pell pretty accurately.

  23. The double dissolution of parliament must take place on or before 11 May which would result in an election being held on 2, 9 or 16 of July. The proposed amendment will apply to elections held after 1 July. How does this amendment change anything the Government may be planning regarding a DD?

  25. Diogones

    [ I think Pell showed all the hallmarks of a sociopath yesterday; no conscience and no contrition and no emotion. ]

    It must be contagious – let’s not forget that Pell was Abbott’s confessor:

    Abbott: “Forgive me father for I have sinned …”

    Pell: “Who gives a stuff about that – are you going to win the next election?”

    Abbott: “You bet you are … I mean you bet I am. By the way, how are you going with cleaning up after the kiddie fiddlers in your parish?”

    Pell: “It’s a sad story and it wasn’t of much interest to me.”

    Abbott: “Amen to that!”

  29. PG @ 612

    [Greens could learn something from them in that regard, the ballot to replace Christine Milne took months and cost a small fortune.]

    Really? My memory must be terrible because I thought Di Natale was shoehorned into the leadership overnight.

  31. Plibersek really and deservedly putting the boot into the LNP on ME.

    Thats a lot of votes the LNP will lose as like it or not ME is the social issue of today as abortion was in its day.

    Same dirty tactics same result a loss to those opposed to equality.

  32. Diogenes

    A process of elimination can be applied to Pell’s personality.

    Conscience? No.
    Contrition? No.
    Empathy? No.
    Compassion? No.
    Shame? No.
    Emotional depth? No.
    Acceptance of criticism? No.

    The only one that doesn’t work is:
    Superficial Charm? No.

  33. TPOF

    The Australian went real gung ho for cutting the Subs. Results are showing.

    Explains incompetence of this government too. Too many PS cuts means no good oversight on facts.

  34. guytaur @ 621,

    Have fun!!! Happy Mardi Gras. 🙂

    Thank you, guytaur. 🙂 You bet I’ll be having fun! I’ll send Conchita Wurst an air kiss from you. 😀

    Happy Mardi Gras!

    It looks like it won’t be raining!

  35. guytaur @ 629

    You don’t have to have an opinion on marriage equality to be outraged at blowing $160 million on a super-sized opinion poll.

  37. @TPOF
    Actually, Christine Milne was replaced in the Senate by a ballot of all rank and file Greens members conducted by the electoral commission. I know because I was a scrutineer in that count.

    I heard that Lousie Pratt won’t contest the nomination, does that mean the Labor ballot hasn’t taken place yet?

  40. Unlike the ALP, Greens candidates are pre-selected 100% according to ballot papers lodged by its membership.

    https://theconversation.com/hanson-young-in-preselection-battle-ahead-of-possible-double-dissolution-55518
    [The Greens’ agreement to Senate voting changes has made a double dissolution very attractive for the government – but it has also sparked a preselection battle between the party’s two South Australian senators.

    In a double dissolution the Greens could only get re-elected one of the two – the high-profile Sarah Hanson-Young, or Robert Simms, who filled a casual vacancy last year.

    The preselection will open on Friday and be completed by mid-March.

    The preselectors, who will decide the order on a double dissolution ticket, are the party’s about 600-700 South Australian members. Hanson-Young said on Monday night: “I am hopeful, but it is a matter for the members. The good thing about being a member driven party is that they get to decide.”]

  42. Voting reforms have strained tensions inside the Labor Party, with Opposition Leader Bill Shorten on Wednesday standing down Gary Gray as the party’s spokesman on electoral matters. Mr Gray took a swipe at his own party last week, saying it was “sad” that the ALP was not backing the changes.
    He will be replaced as shadow special minister of state by Brendan O’Connor and will ensure Mr Gray does not speak to the electoral bill when it returns to the House of Representatives with amendments.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-voting-changes-turnbull-government-compromise-to-simplify-belowtheline-voting-20160302-gn86cw.html#ixzz41i76GPvB
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  43. tpof
    [Really? My memory must be terrible because I thought Di Natale was shoehorned into the leadership overnight.]
    [… leadership …]

    PG
    [Actually, Christine Milne was replaced in the Senate]
    [… in the Senate …]

    Talking past each other?

  44. [A process of elimination can be applied to Pell’s personality.

    Conscience? No.
    Contrition? No.
    Empathy? No.
    Compassion? No.
    Shame? No.
    Emotional depth? No.
    Acceptance of criticism? No.]

    He must have realised very early on that he had the perfect credentials to rise to the top of the Catholic church.

  45. Phoenix Green

    Alas, votes of the members often don’t select people we need to select in a diverse society.

    Labor has long recognised this, with its EO rules.

    The Liberals recognised this, in their original Constitution, where half of all party positions were reserved for women.

    To get Nova Peris into the Senate, Gillard had to over ride party preselections. As she said at the time, these had shown themselves to be an impediment to having indigenous Australians as candidates.

    If the Greens are going to change their look from that of a white middle class persons party, they are going to have to find ways to preselect non white middle class candidates.

  46. I’ve seen a lot of people claiming that the Liberals will get two terms because “Australia hates to dump governments after just one term”. This might have been true once, but look at the results for each new Government since the end of the Cold War:

    1998: Howard loses TPP vote 51-49, clings to power due to marginal seats all going his way.
    2010: Tied TPP vote, hung Parliament.

    Then, of course, there’s Queensland 2014, Victoria 2014 and Tasmania 1992 at the State level, all of which resulted in first-term Governments being given the boot – it’s unusual, but far from unprecedented, for a first-term Government to face a backlash, especially if it overreaches or is shown to be unstable.

    Both of which apply to the Abbott/Turnbull Government.

  47. [Unlike the ALP, Greens candidates are pre-selected 100% according to ballot papers lodged by its membership.]

    Result: white people.

    Is it that terrible for Shorten (or Gillard with Nova Peris) to use their authority to enact some affirmative action?

    What about the ALP’s quota system? That’s not 100% according to ballot papers?

  48. Pegasus

    [Voting reforms have strained tensions inside the Labor Party, with Opposition Leader Bill Shorten on Wednesday standing down Gary Gray as the party’s spokesman on electoral matters.]

    “Strained tensions”. That’s a bit over-egged. One soon-to-retire MP has a tiz, so he’s replaced by the leader. BFD.

  49. mimhoff
    Someone needs to use their authority to ensure diversity when all we have time after time is the same vanilla line up. I am glad the ALP has leaders who will do it.

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