The Australian has a surprise in store tomorrow, with the latest Newspoll survey showing the two parties at level pegging on two-party preferred, wiping out a 53-47 lead to the Coalition at the last poll three weeks ago. The Coalition is down three on the primary vote to 43%, Labor is up one to 35%, and the Greens are up one to 12%. This has been reflected in personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 48% and up seven on disapproval to 38%, while Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 57%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 59-20 to 55-21. The poll also finds 47% support for Labor’s negative gearing plan, with 31% opposed and 22% undecided. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday by Galaxy Research from a sample of 1807, contacted online and through automated phone polling. UPDATE: Also from Newspoll are results on “words used to describe the leaders” and “best leader to handle issues.
Note that there are a further two new posts beneath this one, one providing a forum for discussion on Senate reform and double dissolution talk separate from the main thread, the other being the return of Seat of the Week.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Roy Morgan finds no change on a much improved result for Labor a fortnight ago, with the Coalition again leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred. The primary votes are Coalition 43.5% (steady), Labor 29.5% (up 0.5%) and Greens 15% (down one). The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3116.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 52-48 to the Coalition, but Labor’s primary vote has bounced back two points to 35% after dropping the same amount last week – unusually volatile behaviour for this series, which provides a rolling average of two weekly results. The Coalition is up a point to 44%, with the Greens down one to 10%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions divided the sample into two halves and asked a separate question on negative gearing: a straight one on reform “so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for
investments in newly built homes”, and another attributing the policy to Labor. The switch made surprisingly little difference: the former had 38% approval and 28% disapproval, the latter 37% and 32%, with moderate variations between Labor and Coalition voters cancelling out in the totals. Other results find 31% approval and 54% disapproval of cutting Sunday penalty rates in hospitality, entertainment and retail, and grim assessments on the health of the economy and respondents’ financial wellbeing – only company profits perceived as having improved over the past year, and very large majorities rating that the cost of living has worsened. The poll was conducted online, over two weeks from a sample of 2017 in the case of voting intention, and Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1002 for the rest.
phoenix
[There is a rather confronting documentary on youtube titled “Hellstorm “]
Tks. I’ve booked marked it.
I was surprised at my reaction to “Berlin” – I felt sorry for the Germans.
Not that I’d thought about it much but my father was a WWII vet and the attitude on the rare occasion it came up was ‘they got what they deserved’.
And @ 2050 Pegasus conveniently forgets to add who publicly stood up to defend the LGBTQI community from the Homophobe, Cory Bernardi today. Bill Shorten.
CTar1@2051
I felt sorry for the civilians.
As for people like Nazi functionaries and the SS, too many of them got off far too lightly, as did their collaborators.
“Scott Morrison, the Wayne Swan of the Liberal Party,”
Alan Jones is over Scotty the Dog of a Treasurer. 😀
Lenore’s latest:
Lenore Taylor @lenoretaylor 20h20 hours ago
Searching for evidence to back Turnbull’s house price claim…none found http://gu.com/p/4hxh9/stw #auspol
Didn’t see question time, but has Malcolm cracked?
MB,
and even when we disagree I always appreciate your considered thoughts.
I won’t go long again, but I do think there is one fatal error to your thinking:
[For, if the prices of second hand dwellings collapses significantly]
It is simply impossible (as an effect of Labor’s policy). The only way existing stock can drop and new stock rise if the price of the two forms of housing became completely detached.
This is utter nonsense. All dwellings sit on land. And in the end it is capital gains in the land value that investors are trying to capture, not the dwelling themselves. That is obviously so because the value of the dwelling can only really increase at the rate of inflation of construction.
In some very limited cases of extremely rare properties (ie heritage) the building itself may appreciate faster than construction inflation, but that’s such a microscopic percentage of the market we can safely call it zero. When a type of housing that was previously unfashionable becomes fashionable (ie inner city workers cottages) and so increases in price, that is also vastly an issue of land appreciation. The suburb becomes more valuable because it has these type of dwellings, or more correctly these dwellings become fashionable because that is the predominant stock in the newly popular areas close to the city.
In addition to the lack of capital gain from the building itself is the loss due to depreciation. Houses get old and unfashionable. They require maintenance and remodelling.
So it’s reasonable to say that the total capital gain of a dwelling and land is less than or equal to the appreciation of the land itself.
So why would land suddenly become significantly less valuable because negatively geared investors aren’t going to buy it to rent out? It obviously doesn’t. The new dwelling and old dwelling markets are closely tied together because they sit on the same land.
Consider an existing dwelling. It’s potential current market includes owner occupiers, positively geared rental investors, negatively geared rental investors, and developers.
You have a dynamic equilibrium here. Yes the negative gearing rental investors will no longer be interested, so in theory the price drops. BUT, if the price is dropping that makes the property more attractive to owner occupiers, positively geared rental investors and developers. Because of this theoretical reduction in price driven by a reduction in demand, demand from the other three categories of potential buyers expands. So the price is actually pushed back up!
If prices of old dwellings were to collapse and the price of new dwellings to grow developers would jump in and knock down the old houses to build duplexes, town houses and apartments. That increase in developer demand to access and maximise the value of the land will drive up prices of old dwellings.
The whole argument is complete and utter bullshit.
Reducing negative gearing and halving the CGT will very likely slow the pace of house growth, and the probable increase in supply will probably have a slightly larger slowing of price growth. But significant price drops? Nope.
The market just ain’t that elastic. Especially in Australia where you can’t just walk away from a mortgage. Supply of old dwellings will contract as sellers see that they can’t make as big a profit as they would have liked (driving up prices through lack of supply), and people in trouble with their mortgage will also generally tighten their spending rather than go for the fire sale, so large scale supply outstripping demand isn’t going to happen. Positively geared owners don’t have much to worry about so they’ll hold their holdings, and negatively geared owners won’t sell either in great numbers because they can’t buy back into the existing dwelling market.
Turnbull’s whole argument is stupidity from start to finish. He has taken one tiny potential effect of Labor’s proposals and completely ignored the follow on consequences. He’s also ignored the fact that land is the real asset being purchased. It’s just so unspeakably crap I actually really wonder if this guy is any improvement on Abbott at all.
The things that will influence house prices in the whole will be macro as they ever were. All Labor’s policy will do is slow growth at the margins and hopefully through that increase affordability if earnings can start to rise fast
oops, I went long…
The facts about Tony Burke’s property ownership:
Daniel Hurst
Back to the prime ministerial stuff-up. A version of Tony Burke’s register of interests, filed on 10 December 2013, indicated he owned three properties (two of which provided him with rental income):
* Roselands, NSW – residential (Sydney)
* Kingston, ACT – investment/residential (Canberra)
* Kingston, ACT – investment
However, the same compilation document, available on the parliamentary website, shows he subsequently updated his register. In February 2015, Burke notified the parliament he had sold one of the Kingston properties. Then, in June 2015, he updated his register to reflect the sale of a Kingston property and the Roselands property. In October 2015, Burke disclosed that he had purchased property in Jackeys Marsh, Tasmania.
Turnbull is staking everything in his arguments about Negative Gearing on house prices falling.
Yet…..there are a lot of people out there who will see that as a good thing so they can actually buy somewhere to live.
Its a pretty stark division between the parties on this policy.
Libs appealing to older people already in established homes and investors.
ALP appealing to people who have more basic needs and means, or need jobs in construction.
Will be interesting to which attitude the electorate actually finds more appealing.
ratsak
Excellent post
[Yet…..there are a lot of people out there who will see that as a good thing so they can actually buy somewhere to live…
Libs appealing to older people already in established homes and investors.]
And that might even be overstating it — take away from that number older people who are wondering how their children will be able to afford a home.
C@tmomma @ 2039
Let us also not forget the puerile stunt pulled by Adam Bandt a few years back when he apparently spent a week on the dole.
Funnily enough he carried out that stupid narcissistic stunt during the labor govt.
Have not seen him attempt to go without any money including the dole for 6 months as proposed by the libs nor for that matter have I seen him ask a question in parliament about the low rate of newstart allowance since the election of the libs.
Once again laying bare the truth that yuppie inner city greens dont give a shit about anything or anyone especially the environment so long as it helps their naked political ambition.
The charts that suggest the housing bubble is out of control
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/the-charts-that-suggest-the-housing-bubble-is-out-of-control-20160224-gn2b46.html
[ CTar1
Posted Wednesday, February 24, 2016 at 3:15 pm | Permalink
phoenix
There is a rather confronting documentary on youtube titled “Hellstorm “
Tks. I’ve booked marked it.
I was surprised at my reaction to “Berlin” – I felt sorry for the Germans.
Not that I’d thought about it much but my father was a WWII vet and the attitude on the rare occasion it came up was ‘they got what they deserved’.
]
Its funny but the General the Germans feared the most was George Patton – who in the end regretted that the allies ‘destroyed’ the German forces … as he hated the Russians more and with a passion … He always maintained that the Allies had the Army there in Germany – and that they should keep going till they got to the end of Russia
Some of his colourful quotes :
“Berlin gave me the blues. We have destroyed what could have been a good race, and we are about to replace them with Mongolian savages. And all Europe will be communist. It’s said that for the first week after they took it (Berlin), all women who ran were shot and those who did not were raped. I could have taken it (instead of the Soviets) had I been allowed.”
“Actually, the Germans are the only decent people left in Europe. it’s a choice between them and the Russians. I prefer the Germans.” And on September 2: “What we are doing is to destroy the only semi-modern state in Europe, so that Russia can swallow the whole.”
“We promised the Europeans freedom. It would be worse than dishonorable not to see they have it. This might mean war with the Russians, but what of it? They have no Air Force anymore, their gasoline and ammunition supplies are low. I’ve seen their miserable supply trains; mostly wagons draw by beaten up old hoses or oxen. I’ll say this; the Third Army alone with very little help and with damned few casualties, could lick what is left of the Russians in six weeks. You mark my words. Don’t ever forget them… Someday we will have to fight them and it will take six years and cost us six million lives.
Colton,
And boy do The Greens get touchy when you point it out! 😀
Yesterday one of them tried to have a go at Labor for not ‘hypothecating’ the proceeds of the CGT and Negative Gearing policy revenue to Affordable Housing.
I replied that when the money goes into Consolidated Revenue and they put into practice their 25 policies on Affordable Housing that probably will indeed happen.
Not only that but when Tanya Plibersek was Minister in charge of Affordable Housing in the Rudd government she implemented more than any government in recent history.
*crickets* was the reply I got. 😀
And as per above article, this is the most concerning point re the continuing rise in house prices
[going up.
And up.
But almost everything else – wages, GDP, and rental income, else remains stagnant. ]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/the-charts-that-suggest-the-housing-bubble-is-out-of-control-20160224-gn2b46.html#ixzz413fcwtfj
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook
C@tmomma,
So true. I also note that their policy positions are just let to hang there, never having to explain the obvious contradictions inherit in their policies.
They want more spent on affordable housing but you can bet that housing wont be for homeless women who are victims of domestic violence and their children in this country but for the never specified number of economic migrants (im not talking about actual refugees) who would be flown in from Indonesia if the school prefect like Sarah Hanson-Young ever actually was to become Immigration minister.
phoenixRED@2065
Patton was one of the two ‘Theatrical’ Generals in the US forces, the other being, of course, McArthur.
The quotes reveal him to be more of a fascist than I had previously thought.
just a little more on house prices.
Surprisingly Morrison was almost half right when he compared houses to used cars. We all know a new car is worth less the minute you drive it off the lot.
The same is also actually true of houses. The building is worth less (adjusted for construction price inflation) than the day it was completed. The thing is you can’t drive the house off the lot.
The value of the land generally increases faster than the depreciation of the building (except in remote and rural areas where there is very little land value increase). This is almost universally so. Show me a building and land that isn’t worth less than the land value plus the cost to build an identical building, and I’ll show you a very rare building of some historical, design or other significance detached from the actual construction.
If it wasn’t so, we wouldn’t have the concept of ‘over capitalisation’ in housing.
It’s the land you really invest in and the value of the land is almost completely independent of what is built on it. So new or old construction will move up or down almost completely due to the land value.
I’m actually not completely sure that Turnbull isn’t as big an idiot as what he’s saying would lead you to believe.
It appears that Malcolm’s scare tactic is at least biting on the share market. Banks down by 3% to 4%.
An ongoing scare campaign about how reducing negative gearing will cause a collapse in the property market may just be the trigger that causes a correction in Australia’s over-valued property market.
Is that an ironic outcome or just alanis morissette ironic? – i can never tell.
@ Work To Rule – It is ironic.
Unintentional:
Situational/Cosmic Irony – The actions that occur are the opposite of what was intended.
http://www.rajivsatyal.com/isn%E2%80%99t-it-ironic-don%E2%80%99t-you-think/
Alanis Morriset style ‘irony’ would be “Turnbull’s speech lowers house prices… the day after I bought a house”.
[ Bemused
Posted Wednesday, February 24, 2016 at 4:09 pm | Permalink
Patton was one of the two ‘Theatrical’ Generals in the US forces, the other being, of course, McArthur.
The quotes reveal him to be more of a fascist than I had previously thought.
]
Patton was an very egotistical person – as were most of the Allied Generals – Montgomery, Patton, McArthur, Harris etc …. I recommend a book “The Generals At War ” by David Irvine – they were more at war WITH EACH OTHER than the Axis forces – but hey – they won us the war and the freedoms we have today – so good on them ….
As Patton said : ‘There is one great thing that you men will all be able to say after this war is over and you are home once again. You may be thankful that twenty years from now when you are sitting by the fireplace with your grandson on your knee and he asks you what you did in the great World War II, you won’t have to cough, shift him to the other knee and say, “Well, your Granddaddy shoveled shit in Louisiana.” No, Sir, you can look him straight in the eye and say, “Son, your Granddaddy rode with the Great Third Army and a Son-of-a-Goddamned-Bitch named Georgie Patton!’
Alanis Morrisset irony would be if you are 95 and then are diagnosed with a terminal disease, win lotto, buy a house and die in a plane crash all within 24 hours
Turnbull talking down the economy is a dereliction of duty.
I wonder what Abbott is planning? He must be feeling very left out now that Turnbull has figured out how to wreck political debate and the LNP all on his own.
Work To Rule@2071
Its more offshore influence –
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-23/stocks-slump-bank-battering-crude-crash-stall-short-squeeze
Mind you this sort of stuff doesn’t help –
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-charts-that-suggest-the-housing-bubble-is-out-of-control-20160224-gn2b46.html
Then the Bank’s (and the markets in general) have been falling since the end of April last year.
Thats all after one of the longest and biggest bull markets on record, using the S&P500 as the benchmark. That in turn has been driven by ultra low interest rates and other central bank activity etc.
ratsak
I’ll throw in there that real estate agents tell me that the value of the land depreciates as soon as you build a house on it, because the house you build on it will not be the perfect house.
Patton’s famous speech before D-Day. He spoke without notes (I think he was dyslexic). Wish I’d heard it live (and then missed D-Day!)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_S._Patton's_speech_to_the_Third_Army
ratsak: “If prices of old dwellings were to collapse and the price of new dwellings to grow developers would jump in and knock down the old houses to build duplexes, town houses and apartments. That increase in developer demand to access and maximise the value of the land will drive up prices of old dwellings. The whole argument is complete and utter bullshit.
Reducing negative gearing and halving the CGT will very likely slow the pace of house growth, and the probable increase in supply will probably have a slightly larger slowing of price growth. But significant price drops? Nope.”
As I keep saying, nobody can be at all certain about what’s going to happen here.
A lot of the sustained criticism of negative gearing from the Grattan Institute, Greens, McKell Institute, Fairfax journos and the Australia Institute is that it has fuelled a bubble in the housing market. Well, if that’s true, then it’s surely logical to expect the withdrawal/restriction of negative gearing for residential housing to cause the bubble to contract, if not collapse.
Personally, I have never accepted that neg gearing has much at all to do with bubbles in the housing market. The bubbles are far too targeted: in the past couple of years it has occurred in Sydney, Melbourne and, to a lesser extent, Brisbane (but not, to any great extent, the Gold Coast or the Sunshine Coast). There was a bit of a housing bubble in Perth a decade ago, but – notwithstanding the continuing existence of negative gearing – it has significantly contracted now.
What all this suggests to me is that the bubble is largely about demand. I have frequently read claims from the Grattan Institute, Peter Martin et al that the big surge in housing prices began in around 2000 with the change in the rules around the CGT discount. What these writers have missed is that something else also happened around 2000: a sustained increase in our migrant intake.
For a long time, Sydney was far and away the first choice for new migrants. Then, in the past decade or so, Melbourne has started to rival Sydney in popularity. And Brisbane is also growing in significance. Whereas, these days, not that many newly-arrived migrants flock to Hobart or Adelaide or some of the major regional centres.
And, lo and behold, where has the housing price boom occurred? 1. Sydney, 2. Melbourne and 3. to a lesser extent, Brisbane.
And, yes, it’s not just demand from home buyers and long-term investors, there’s also quite a bit of speculative money flying around too, including from a lot of foreign, particularly Chinese, investors (either legitimately through the market for new housing, or more questionably through Australian residents who serve as agents).
Will Labor’s policy cause a lot of this speculative investment to pull out of the market, especially in Sydney? Or else concentrate it even more strongly on new builds: new apartment blocks, subdivisions/dual occupancy, etc? And, if so, what does that mean for the housing market generally?
As I said, nobody really knows. Except that Labor is saying it will create 25,000 new jobs, which suggests a huge surge in investment/home buyer demand.
phoenixRED@2073
Any military leader to be effective would need to have a large amount of self belief.
But not all had the abrasive ‘theatricality’ of Patton and McArthur.
Ratsak @2057, 2070
You are correct it is all about about land.
More that 100 years ago it was observed:
[Roads are made, streets are made, services are improved, electric light turns night into day, water is brought from reservoirs a hundred miles off in the mountains — and all the while the landlord sits still. Every one of those improvements is effected by the labor and cost of other people and the taxpayers. To not one of those improvements does the land monopolist, as a land monopolist, contribute, and yet by every one of them the value of his land is enhanced. He renders no service to the community, he contributes nothing to the general welfare, he contributes nothing to the process from which his own enrichment is derived.]
And in Australia we have not only this – the owner of land unjustly enriched at the expense of “taxpayers” and the community but in addition the land monopolist is paid extra (via negative gearing) to undertake the mulcting by the same people (taxpayers etc.) he then proceeds to mulct.
In 1909 redress was defeated by the House of Lords; Lord Wentworth maintains their dirty work, and more…
@scott bales
Cheers, that’s the best explanation I’ve heard.
I do think the precariously priced property market may struggle to avoid a slide in the midst months of a full on Liberal scare campaign.
lol..
GetUp! @GetUp 2m2 minutes ago
GetUp! Retweeted Alice Workman
It seems @corybernardi doesn’t like being called names. Maybe we need to launch a #SafeSenate for him.
Zoomster and Peg
Don’t know about other states but NSW Greens not only cannot cross the floor, but can be directed to vote a certain way in the federal party room.
[PoliticsAustralia
PoliticsAustralia – @AustraliaVote
Turnbulls assasination of Abbott was based on the pretense Australia had lost its economic mojo!
Our economy is far worse today!!!
#auspol
9:33 PM – 23 Feb 2016
3 RETWEETS1 LIKE]
Appalling cynicism on display today. Turnbull over negative gearing and CGT reforms, and Labor on senate voting reforms. Its all so depressing. I expected so much better from both.
At least there’s hope that the most wooden of political performers Bill Shorten has a pulse. The Bernardi comeback was great and worth a thousand stage-managed zingers. The beard is really working for Chris Bowen as well. Bowen looking like the natural successor now if (and I can actually say “if”) Labor loses the election.
Morrison has been an epic fail as Treasurer. He’s done nothing, nothing at all. Complete policy vacuum. At least Hockey tried.
meher baba @ 2080,
Will Labor’s policy cause a lot of this speculative investment to pull out of the market, especially in Sydney?
I kind of hope so if that AFR article ‘Uncovering the Big Aussie Short’ linked to this morning is even half true! If it is indeed the case then a slow deflation of the housing bubble is better than a big bang! as the Housing market corrects.
Or else concentrate it even more strongly on new builds: new apartment blocks, subdivisions/dual occupancy, etc? And, if so, what does that mean for the housing market generally?
I hope not and I hope it allows the identified oversupply to be soaked up naturally and gradually.
As I said, nobody really knows. Except that Labor is saying it will create 25,000 new jobs, which suggests a huge surge in investment/home buyer demand.
Also, if the change in policy stimulates the gradual transition to new building then even if it doesn’t create as many jobs as speculated by Labor it may just be the tempering force the economy needs as new building comes with government oversight of the area. If you want a tax break for it.
[ bemused
Posted Wednesday, February 24, 2016 at 4:30 pm | Permalink
phoenixRED@2073
Any military leader to be effective would need to have a large amount of self belief.
But not all had the abrasive ‘theatricality’ of Patton and McArthur.
]
The Germans called Patton the “Cowboy General” by the 2 revolvers he always carried with GSP engraved on the grips’
When a reporter asks him about his “pearl-handled revolvers”, Patton quickly retorts “They’re ivory. Only a pimp from a cheap New Orleans whorehouse would carry a pearl-handled pistol.”
The Lorax,
I reckon the Bludgers could do a better job of running the Economy than Scott Morrison! 😀
Cat
I think my old half blind cat would do a better job on than Morrison!
MB,
As I’ve said, we can’t know, but we can evaluate options between likely and far fetched.
I agree with you that Neg Gearing and the CGT are only one of many drivers of real estate value growth. As you correctly note if Immigration were halted tomorrow that would have a far far larger impact. I have always said the effect of Labor’s policy will be at the margins. Because it is at the margins, Turnbull’s hyperbole is utter bullshit. Yes it ‘could’ happen in much the same way a comet ‘could’ strike us tomorrow and wipe out life on earth. The truth is that the comet is more likely.
Also I don’t know the timeframe of the 25,000 job claim. All such claims from politicians should be taken with a grain of salt. I’ve never quoted it for that reason. Like I said it will make a difference at the margins. New builds will be marginally more attractive and so supply will increase marginally to meet the demand.
That’s it. The policy isn’t the end to tax reform for the next hundred years. It’s just a good start that will have a marginal (but compounding) effect on new construction, housing price inflation, and the federal budget over time. I don’t think Labor has sold it as much more than that. You always slightly oversell a policy (welcome to politics) but Labor has done well on this more for the novelty and bravery of getting out with a policy attacking sacred cows from opposition rather than any claims of solving cancer.
Equally because the likely benefits are at the margins, so are the potential costs. Like I said it’s all about land price. New builds and existing stock cannot get significantly dislocated because the land is the land. Labor’s policy makes only marginal difference to the total demand for land either way. If housing prices collapse it will be because of a significant over supply of land compared to demand. But the structure of our real estate market including things like our immigration rate make that an extremely unlikely scenario.
Turnbull’s full of shit. Even minor negative effects are unlikely (but not impossible), but the most likely scenario is a mildly positive overall contribution to affordability, new construction and the budget bottom line.
I repeat again, for the umpteenth time, Robert Caro’s great quote: Power doesn’t corrupt, it reveals. Ain’t that the truth.
Lorax, what do you think are the odds that Shorten was deliberately low key and holding back just a little until the election year? Fighting Abbott with Abbott would eventually fall apart just like Abbott.
dtt @ 2091,
I think my old half blind cat would do a better job on than Morrison!
Blind Freddy could do a better job of running the Economy than Scott Morrison! 😀
K-17,
I’m stealing that line! 😀
So much waffle about NG/CGT. As I said yesterday
bemused@1557
[hypothecating]
When a politician talks about hypothecating revenue you know for absolute 100% certainty they are trying to con you (rather than say 99% suspicion).
Hypothication is almost as much bullshit as Turnbull has been spouting lately.
There is only one Consolidated Revenue Fund and all cash is fungible. All revenue goes into the CRF and all the expenses come out. Everything else is hooey.
Bemused @2097: Indeed. A distortionary policy should have a clear rationale, or it should be removed. Negative Gearing had a clear rationale (make housing affordable), but it failed to live up to it – and so it should be removed.
I don’t see how NG policy change can shock house prices when it is only a deferral of deductions. Rental losses can still be carried forward until there is investment income or capital gain to offset. A valuable timing difference yeah but it will only slowly have an effect as it is removed.
As for CG discount, I prefer indexation but the reduction to 25% applies to all asset classes, so it’s not like property investors are gonna take their capital and hoard gold instead. Maybe they will go to NZ.