Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll drops a bombshell with a poll showing Labor drawing level with the Coalition on two-party preferred.

The Australian has a surprise in store tomorrow, with the latest Newspoll survey showing the two parties at level pegging on two-party preferred, wiping out a 53-47 lead to the Coalition at the last poll three weeks ago. The Coalition is down three on the primary vote to 43%, Labor is up one to 35%, and the Greens are up one to 12%. This has been reflected in personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 48% and up seven on disapproval to 38%, while Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 57%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 59-20 to 55-21. The poll also finds 47% support for Labor’s negative gearing plan, with 31% opposed and 22% undecided. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday by Galaxy Research from a sample of 1807, contacted online and through automated phone polling. UPDATE: Also from Newspoll are results on “words used to describe the leaders” and “best leader to handle issues.

Note that there are a further two new posts beneath this one, one providing a forum for discussion on Senate reform and double dissolution talk separate from the main thread, the other being the return of Seat of the Week.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Roy Morgan finds no change on a much improved result for Labor a fortnight ago, with the Coalition again leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred. The primary votes are Coalition 43.5% (steady), Labor 29.5% (up 0.5%) and Greens 15% (down one). The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3116.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 52-48 to the Coalition, but Labor’s primary vote has bounced back two points to 35% after dropping the same amount last week – unusually volatile behaviour for this series, which provides a rolling average of two weekly results. The Coalition is up a point to 44%, with the Greens down one to 10%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions divided the sample into two halves and asked a separate question on negative gearing: a straight one on reform “so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for
investments in newly built homes”, and another attributing the policy to Labor. The switch made surprisingly little difference: the former had 38% approval and 28% disapproval, the latter 37% and 32%, with moderate variations between Labor and Coalition voters cancelling out in the totals. Other results find 31% approval and 54% disapproval of cutting Sunday penalty rates in hospitality, entertainment and retail, and grim assessments on the health of the economy and respondents’ financial wellbeing – only company profits perceived as having improved over the past year, and very large majorities rating that the cost of living has worsened. The poll was conducted online, over two weeks from a sample of 2017 in the case of voting intention, and Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1002 for the rest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,223 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Asha Leu @ 93 – omnishambles was raised by PBers as a very apt word to describe the Abbott Government, and now it looks like it can describe the Turnbull Government, given its policy timidity, lack of unity, and constant messaging stuff-ups.

  5. Gee, I didn’t expect Gary Gray announcing his retirement would have this effect.

    As much as I enjoy this I don’t get too excited about Newspoll. It seems to be pretty volatile.

  6. [ However, any announcement has to also be within the rubric of being ‘modest’.]

    c@t, I think some of it will be Defence and Procurement stuff if what ABC reported is accurate. Not subs, but they may do something about the Offshore Patrol Vessel Contract?? the Libs could do with something about supporting manufacturing.

    And I reckon this week is the one for Senate Vote reform if they are going to move on that.

    Be interesting to see if people care more about those issues than they do about tax / super / jobs.

  8. I wonder if Bruce Belsham has called a late night meeting at ABC HQ to tell the staff to start writing some pro Labor articles because it looks as if they might win the next election! 😀

  9. Asha Leu @ 93: It would be interesting to know whether the niggling disputes between Mr Turnbull and Mr Morrison on tax policy etc are also reflective of bureaucratic differences of opinion in Canberra, especially between Treasury and PM&C. I don’t think there’s been a previous time when the Secretary of PM&C was a former Treasury Secretary, and one might well expect Dr Parkinson to be in the ascent at the moment.

  10. Ah. I found report on this BJoyce matter in the Courier Mail

    [Malcolm Turnbull to release a secret letter written by a department secretary who butted heads with Barnaby Joyce and was then sacked.

    Opposition agriculture spokesman Joel Fitzgibbon yesterday said if Mr Turnbull refused to intervene, Labor would take the matter to the Federal Court.

    TALE OF TWO TALES: Agri boss contradicts Joyce on his sacking

    For six months, the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner has been considering the release of the letter after Labor demanded it be made public. The office has refused to send it to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal.

  14. [It’s as though they woke up straight away to the fact that they threw away government and that the new Government was so ill-prepared for the job that buckling down and keeping your nerve could bring them back within a term.]

    It appears that way, and it’s impressive.

  15. Aaaaaarrrrrggggghhhhh!!!!!

    3 more years of Bronwyn Bishop on the Opposition front bench calling spurious Points of Order! 😀

    (Sorry, I’m getting a bit ahead of myself there 😉 )

  16. “Government sources were reportedly tending against the double dissolution option blah blah blah”

    Just writing tomorrow’s by lines.

    Hey, who knew being a waffling, indecisive Toff with zero policy direction WASNT A ROLLED GOLD WINNER?

    Not our journos.

  18. DTT,

    I forwarded your post to my son…his initial assessment was that you had effed up.

    When I asked if he could elaborate a little he suggested that someone may have already used the product key so that you would now be unable to use it. In short, it appears you have done your dough! Sorry not to have better news.

  21. [ Mark Kenny suggested in a few of his reports recently that another cabinet minister’s career could also be under a cloud. Is it possibly BJoyce? ]

    Wonder if Tony Windsor will decide to contest and drop the load he reckons he has on Barnyard??

    [ It couldn’t be Joyce.

    He’s the only one showing any competence at the present. ]

    Thats the definitive low bar?? 🙁

  23. [ 3 more years of Bronwyn Bishop on the Opposition front bench calling spurious Points of Order! 😀 ]

    Nahhhh. If the Libs lose this year they may finally do the clean out they have been avoiding since Howard lost. Bishop would leave i reckon.

  24. imacca @ 121: The bush telegraph being what it is, the New England electorate probably already knows about anything Mr Joyce may have been up to. If there’s a story there, it’s greater significance will probably be outside the electorate.

  25. Airlines @ 119,

    BBishop on the frontbench of the Coalition?

    She will put herself there. Again. As she did when Abbott took over from Turnbull 1.0 and didn’t give her a Shadow Ministry and Tony didn’t have the stomach to tell her to pee off back to the backbench where she belonged! 😀

  26. imacca @ 123,

    Bishop would leave i reckon.

    I thought she wanted to stick around to fend off the terrorists from Palm Beach!?! 😉

  33. [ I have to say though, I’m detecting the teeniest smidgin of Hubris amongst the Bludgerocracy… ]

    Good. 🙂 We could do with it and it seems to keep ESJ away.

    Realistically, we have enough data to know that the Libs lead has pulled right back and it is a genuine contest in 2016.

    Politics as it should be, with the potential for Tory blood to be spilled. 🙂

  34. Thanks Jolyon

    As it cost me $2 I am not very upset. Maybe I will venture into waters only swum by 16 year old boys and use Steam to buy the game!!!!

  35. I strongly suspect its going to get worse for the COALition in the next month or so.

    We are over a tipping point.

    Abbott will not be able to resist sniping from the rear and Bolt and other Murdoch nutters will support him.

    There was only 5 votes, 6 now Joe has gone, between him and Mal 6 months ago and Mal’s only appeal to his party then was that he could put them back in front in the polls and keep their bums on the seats come the election.
    That single advantage he had evaporated tonight.
    Tony is this close … he can smell it.

    The murmurings will start this week.
    Disunity is death.

  38. You can send a photo of the game cd box with the number on it and they will let you use it. Thats what happened with a game I had when I lost it on a computer meltdown. They have a web page with the details on it ,at least they did have two years ago

  39. (from previous thread)

    [daretotread
    Probably not too many gamers on PB but I bought a game today at a trash and treasure. Seems it is with something called Steam. Even though it had the product key it cannot be activated.]

    Self-described Gamer here!

    OK, so like Question said on the last thread, Steam is a game digital (i.e. online) shop/storefront/Copyright system which seeks to link certain games into a centralized, popular and accessible hub, much like Music is to iTunes.

    The Game you bought quite likely sounds like it needs Steam in order to first start-up. Luckily, like iTunes, Steam functions as an stand-alone application onto any PC, and the installer can be downloaded by clicking on this link:

    https://steamcdn-a.akamaihd.net/client/installer/SteamSetup.exe

    This will take a while to install. Steam needs a lot of files to work.

    Once it’s installed, you’ll need to create an account for Steam. This’ll require a working e-mail address you can link to Steam. You’ll also need to create an unique username and password to use with Steam.

    Here’s a visual tutorial I quickly created:

    Lastly, to activate your game with Steam: Once the Steam front page is on your Computer, you’ll want to look at the Top left corner of the Front Page, click ‘Games’, then click ‘Activate a Product on Steam’ on the ensuing menu.

    Here’s a visual tutorial I quickly created:

    That’s it! If you can share what game you bought, or if you have any additional problems, feel free to let me know, I’ll try to offer further support.

    Also, if you want to be friends on Steam, let me know what your Account Name is, and I’ll attempt to make a friend request.

  41. [52
    C@tmomma

    Another interesting poll:

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes Feb 16

    #Essential Poll Outsourcing administration of Medicare to private sector: Approve 17 Disapprove 64 #auspol]

    C@t….talking to voters, past Liberal voters included… there is one thing they are really annoyed about is the changes/cuts in health. This area of policy affects nearly every single family. Voters feel very badly let down by the Liberals on this.

  43. [ A DD is completely out of the question.]

    Never underestimate the irrationality of a frightened Liberal.

    And there will be a few of those around at the moment.

  44. [64
    C@tmomma

    Will they go ahead with the kite they flew today to take Super off Casuals and other low-paid employees? Nope, nope, nope. Barnaby nixed that quick smart.]

    The threat to penalty rates has not gone unnoticed either. Door-knocking today, at least one voter raised this with me. The Libs have let voters right across the country know they cannot be trusted on incomes.

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