Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition; Morgan: 52.5-47.5

Morgan finds serious slippage in support for the Coalition for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became leader, bringing it more closely into line with Essential Research, which continues to find the Coalition with a narrow lead.

It looks like the only two new federal polls this week are the regular Essential Research and Roy Morgan series, and a solid drop for the Coalition from Roy Morgan brings the two much closer together than they have been since Malcolm Turnbull assumed the prime ministership. Essential is its usual stable self, with the Coalition’s modest two-party lead of 51-49 unchanged on last week. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). The voting intention results were derived from online polling conducted over the two previous weeks, from an overall sample of about 2000. From this week’s sample of 1000 only, the poll also offers us Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull steady on 51% approval and up two on disapproval to 27%, while Bill Shorten is steady on 27% approval and up one on disapproval to 48%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has increased from 51-18 to 52-15. Respondents were also asked to register two reasons why the government might wish to reform the tax system, for which the most popular response by some margin was “to address the budget deficit”, which was rated first or second by 58%. Favoured possibilities for revenue raising followed the usual pattern in coming in highest for proposals targeting multinational corporations and high income earners, with a GST increase rating last out of seven listed options. When forced to choose between higher income tax or a higher GST, 37% came down for don’t know.

Morgan’s two-party measures record their first significant movement of the Turnbull era, with the Coalition’s respondent-allocated two-party lead down from 55-45 to 52.5-47.5, and previous election preferences down from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5. Clearly rounding and changed preference flows had a fair bit to do with this, because the primary votes are little changed, with the Coalition steady on 43.5%, Labor up a point to 29%, and the Greens up a point to 16%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the two previous weekends, from a sample of 3072.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition; Morgan: 52.5-47.5”

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  1. P J O’Rourke on Jeb Bush

    [Jeb Bush is the “Great American Failure Story”. Here’s Jeb with all the Bush influence, all the Bush political connections, all the Bush campaign funding, and he can’t get out of single-digit polling numbers. This would be almost impossible for the son of an oligarchic family anywhere else in the world. Isn’t America a wonderful country?]

  8. Barnaby as DPM could be really ‘interesting’.

    Prone to gaffes and who knows what he has done in the past that hasn’t seen the light of day yet.

    Doubt many would see him as foreman material and DPM and Acting PM is well above his pay grade.

    The Peter Principle at work.

  10. Not sure if this already posted.

    [The federal government needs an early double dissolution election to “sort out” the troublesome Senate, according to Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss.

    Mr Truss, about to retire as Nationals leader, dropped his early-election bombshell while addressing more than 100 lobbyists and political donors at a National Party function on Tuesday night at Parliament House.

    In forthright comments that shocked Nationals colleagues and staffers, Mr Truss explicitly endorsed the idea of a double-dissolution election, according to numerous guests attending the function, known as the Nationals Policy Forum.

    Such an election would have to be held before July 16 – months earlier than a “regular” election is expected.

    As Mr Truss declared his support for a snap election, National Party president Larry Anthony grabbed the microphone and reminded guests that the function was operating under “Chatham House rules”. These informal rules hold that information disclosed during a meeting may be reported by those present, but the source of that information must not be identified.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-needs-an-early-election-to-sort-out-the-senate-warren-truss-tells-lobbyists-20160210-gmq5lc.html

  12. lizzie, 659

    [These informal rules hold that information disclosed during a meeting may be reported by those present, but the source of that information must not be identified.]

    Well that certainly backfired.

  13. What I find really amusing to watch is when Barnaby seems to be trying on his ‘Serious Deputy Prime Minister’ face for the media. You can see the Inner Barnaby trying to break through and by the end he just ends up looking confused! 😀

  14. [Mr Truss declared his support for a snap election ]

    turnbull’s chance to do that looks to have passed.

    He has painted himself into a later election repeatedly (OK he has given himself out clauses) but it would look like he is panicking and has said his tax plan is still being prepared.

    turnbull is losing control over events and tax looks like blowing up in his face unless he has multiple rabbits in his top hat.

  17. Bingo!

    [Quiet_Please
    Quiet_Please – ‏@Quiet__Please

    Malcolm ‘I believe in due process’ Turnbull forgets that he demanded the resignation of the PM & Treasurer based on a fabricated email
    #qt]

  18. ‘Government needs an early election to sort out the Senate, Warren Truss tells lobbyists.’

    And that statement says everything that is wrong with our democracy now:

    A politician in a closed session with a room full of lobbyists telling them his strategic thoughts about election timing.

  20. Oh dear. Tax policy in a shambles. Front bench disintegrating. Party disunity. Leaks coming from every direction.

    It’s like endless reruns of a TV sitcom – “Malcolm in the Muddle”.

  23. Hey I just got home from being out of touch for a few days – is it dinkum that Greg Hunt really got an international award for best environment minister?
    Or it it a hoax?

  24. shea mcduff

    [ is it dinkum that Greg Hunt really got an international award for best environment minister? ]

    I believe so. For services to the Petroleum Industry.

  28. https://newmatilda.com/2016/02/10/watch-scott-ludlam-rips-greg-hunt-for-award-it-sounds-like-his-mum-made-up/
    [The Greens’ Deputy Leader has a new idea for a day of national mirth and holiday-making. Get ready for Greg Hunt Day.

    Not one to let a moment of social media frenzy pass uncommented on, Scott Ludlam has this contribution to make in the wake of Greg Hunt being awarded the ‘World’s Best Minister’ tag at the World Government Summit overnight.

    In an address to the nation, Ludlam called for the surprising event to be celebrated by declaring February 10 a national public holiday. “We want to acknowledge the brazen audacity of Minister Hunt accepting an award for his contribution to dismantling Australia’s world leading climate change laws.”

    It goes on.

    “Our hope is that the statues built in Mr Hunt’s honour in every capital city will be placed far enough above sea level so that generations to come can honour him.”

    You can’t help but get the impression that the Greens are kind of enjoying themselves today.]

  32. [Mr Hunt was in Dubai to receive his award overnight, with the conference leaders saying he had played a crucial role in reducing carbon emissions]

    Surely it’s a joke. Then again Abbott was PM, Barnaby prospective Deputy PM ….

  33. Nup.
    Don’t believe you lot.
    Faced with incontrovertible proof that the award is not a hoax I will still simply put my head in the sand and assume that is such.
    Greg would understand that attitude.

  34. A bit of fun to be had with this.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2016/feb/10/show-turnbull-how-its-done-make-your-own-tax-reforms-interactive?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=155863&subid=7122617&CMP=ema_632#?9,14,23,21,24,12,28,26,18,19,13,27,15,17

    [Show Turnbull how it’s done: make your own tax reforms – interactive
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has said he’s not going to play the “rule-in rule-out game” with tax reform, but that doesn’t mean you can’t. Here, you can rule in or out tax changes to increase revenue, and then choose items to spend that revenue on. Once you’re done, you can share the link with others so they can see your results]

  40. good old Dennis, everything labor does always a scare behind it.

    Question Time: what we learned
    Question Time: what we learned
    Dennis Shanahan

    Labor switches to a scare campaign on Medicare, as a GST rise shrinks further into the distance.

  41. bemused

    I can’t remember Fred Daly, way predates my interest in the politics of this country. I was actually what Bludgers call “disengaged” pretty much until Howard came along. I see he is recalled as a great humourist though.

  42. Robert’s failure to attend the PVO interview only adds to the perception from question time that he is hiding smething significant. If he wasn’t, why not be upfront?

  43. mikehilliard@690

    bemused

    I can’t remember Fred Daly, way predates my interest in the politics of this country. I was actually what Bludgers call “disengaged” pretty much until Howard came along. I see he is recalled as a great humourist though.

    IIRC either he or someone else published a book with selections of his humour.

    I would be surprised if you couldn’t find some of it on the Internet.

    He was very quick and pulled all sorts of stunts like when the leader of the Country Party as it was got up to announce it was now the “National-Country Party”.

    Quick as a flash, before anyone else could react, Fred was up on his feet launching into a speech about “this auspicious occasion”….

    It took surprising long before the speaker recovered his composure and sat Fred down.

  44. Pegasus

    [“Australians left scratching their heads,” Labor titled its press release.

    Deputy Greens leader Scott Ludlam uploaded an online video dubbed “an address to the nation”.]

    Labor humour leaving Ludlam (sp check suggests ‘Malamud’ for Ludlam 😆 ) for dead here.

    Is that their best?

  45. [Sky News Australia
    Sky News Australia – Verified account ‏@SkyNewsAust

    .@warrentrussmp wanted to make the announcement in Jan and then early Feb. PM @TurnbullMalcolm asked him not to. Twice. (@ljayes)]

  46. Can we not have an argument about whether it was the Greens’ or the ALP’s comedic reaction to Greg Hunt being named the best minister in the world that is of better quality?

  47. The Greens have dropped the ball with recruiting volunteers for Higgins. When told I wouldn’t campaign in Melbourne Ports they keep asking me to work there

  48. Funny, poking around the ABC News site I came across the Gillard labels Abbott a misogynist speech. Still a “popular upload”. I know it’s old ground but seriously the whole bandwagon has gone off the cliff since. If Shorten could punch holes in Turnbull rather than side show attacks maybe we stand a chance. Just saying.

  49. Anna Henderson
    Anna Henderson – Verified account ‏@annajhenderson

    Trade Minister @AndrewRobbMP is only committing to stay on for “some months” not necessarily until the next election @abc730

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