BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Coalition

Aggregated poll ratings find Malcolm Turnbull falling short of the heights he achieved towards the end of last year, without giving Labor any real cause for optimism about the election due later this year.

The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds at least some of the gloss coming off Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon poll ratings, with Labor gaining half a point on two-party preferred since last week and clawing back a point on the seat projection. This week’s Newspoll result means there are now two useable data points this year for personal ratings, the other being the monthly reading from Essential Research that was released a fortnight ago, and they collectively indicate a double-digit drop in Turnbull’s net approval rating since the end of last year, and a downturn in his standing on preferred prime minister. Nonetheless, Turnbull retains commanding leads, and the Coalition is credited with a bigger two-party vote and seat majority than was achieved at the 2013 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Coalition”

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  1. Reading that long analysis of the character of Malcolm Turnbull one thing jumped out at me and it may be indicative of his fatal flaw.

    You saw it when he was ‘gently’ elbowed sideways from the Bar to Merchant Banking.

    You saw it when he fell for the Godwin Grech email scam.

    You saw it when he went to the Nationals party room and exclaimed that he owned more cattle than all of them combined.

    You saw it when he selected Mal Brough and Arthur Sinodinos, both under clouds of suspicion for dodgy behaviour.

    You’ve just seen it with the tax reform debate.

    Malcolm Turnbull talks a big game, puffs himself up, is full of hot air, then crashes and burns like the Hindenburg.

  2. [Amy Feldtmann ‏@AmyFeldtmann 17m17 minutes ago
    Five mths ago today, Aus govt announced it was taking 12,000 Syrian/Iraqi refugees. This takes time but to only have settled *26* = farcical]

  3. From the Guardian blog. No comment necessary:

    [The immigration minister Peter Dutton is on ABC radio in Melbourne now. He says the government is determined to ensure that new arrivals don’t fill detention centres.

    Host Jon Faine is determined to emerge from this interview with a commitment for some kind of transparency. Faine points out that the asylum issue is now so divisive in Australia, it might be time to start some healing, some bringing of people together. PDuddy says the national healing will start when some journalists start looking at border protection in a “dispassionate” way. Faine blows a short gasket.

    Hang on, he says, you want to talk about facts? How about opening our offshore detention facilities for scrutiny? Dutton notes the host is ignorant of the facts. Faine insists he’s not ignorant of any facts, he knows he can’t go to Nauru. He asks if the minister will facilitate a visit to the island, given there’s apparently no problem with scrutiny.

    PDudd’s is somewhat in a corner here, but he’s a man inclined to press on, undaunted.

    PDuddy: ‘I have no problem with that Jon, but visa issue is a matter for the Nauru government.’

    Faine ends the interview by noting he looks forward to his Nauru visit. PDuddy ends the interview by saying he looks forward to another conversation soon.]

  4. You can add to the sell off part the fact that patients data will be available to private companies. How much privacy for you medical records do you want?

  6. guytaur @ 1903,

    ‘ You can add to the sell off part the fact that patients data will be available to private companies.’

    Which begins the humiliating process of these companies selecting who they want to cover with their premium services, paid for by the people who want and can afford these services and consigning those who they don’t really want to have anything to do with, but they have to because a Universal Service Obligation will be built into their government contracts, to those doctors like Dr Jayant Patel who they know are shonks.

  7. confessions

    [
    Amy Feldtmann ‏@AmyFeldtmann 17m17 minutes ago
    Five mths ago today, Aus govt announced it was taking 12,000 Syrian/Iraqi refugees. This takes time but to only have settled *26* = farcical]
    Coalition trained at the US military school of farce in Syria.

    [Senators appear incredulous and call for a new plan after hearing news that US military’s $500m effort has resulted in training of only a handful of fighters

    US has trained only ‘four or five’ Syrian fighters against Isis, top general testifies…… expressing incredulity that the Defense Department would seek another $600m to fund fighters she said the US was counting “on our fingers and toes”.]
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/sep/16/us-military-syrian-isis-fighters

  9. Arse Covering 101:

    ‘ During a Senate estimates hearing on Monday night, a Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet official revealed Mr Turnbull only requested the investigation at 1.58pm – just two minutes before a fiery question time where the saga featured prominently.’

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/stuart-robert-scandal-deepens-as-labor-demands-answers-over-ministerial-meeting-20160208-gmoxps.html#ixzz3zcVWZj8G

  10. confessions

    [
    poroti:

    Given Barnett was expecting WA alone would settle up to 1200 Syrians…]
    Actually expecting or making such noises knowing P Duddy and crew had SFA intention of making much effort to deliver?

  12. vanOnselenP: Why on earth did Abbott’s office approve Stuart Robert’s trip to China? More evidence of dysfunction for the second edition of Battleground.

  15. victoria

    Exactly. Why its good PvO focussing on it. No doubt then only question is why when Turnbull found out however late he just did not sack the Minister?

    My bet is factional numbers in the party.

  18. From Stephanie Peatling’s blog at Fairfax:

    [Never underestimate the pettiness of your elected representatives.

    Labor senator Jacinta Collins has been asking Tim Wilson, who was appointed to the commission by the Abbott government, about his international travel.

    In return Liberal Party senator Ian Macdonald wants Professor Triggs to advise the committee about her international travel.

    Senator Macdonald is “reluctant” to make the request because “it just seems an unfortunate waste of your time”.

    Then why are you doing it, Senator Collins asks.]

    Do they have an IQ test for Coalition Senators? Over 90 and they are ineligible to be nominated?

  19. latingle: Turnbull calls in auditors as Lodge renovation cost heads to $15 million https://t.co/6SJrbGEzob via @FinancialReview

    shanebazzi: .@GillianTriggs:findings were disturbing, children deeply traumatised, mentally ill, confirms all findings made over last 2-3 yrs #estimates

  20. Good points:

    ‘ They did such a wonderful job with privatisng colleges and allowing private enterprise to use taxpayer’s money to enrich themselves. Now they want to give the same opportunity to their business mates to rort Medicare. I cannot believe how blatantly this government implements its ideology of pro business to the detriment of everyone except the businesses running it.

    Commenter
    Coriander
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    February 09, 2016, 9:40AM

    Can’t you just see the outcome. Patients getting emails & calls from “health” providers in the Philippines or Thailand or India offering cut-price cures for what ails them.’

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Date and time
    February 09, 2016, 9:48AM

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/the-pulse-live/politics-live-february-9-2016-20160208-gmoz3h.html#ixzz3zcYr1AtZ

    Now there’s more than a hint of truth to the conjecture of getting calls from overseas medical services providers.

    Remember the story which rose and sank very quickly about how Andrew Robb was working on a scheme whereby Australians would be able to access medical services in other countries, paid for by the Australian government and because they were cheaper.

    Is this sell-off of Medicare the prelude to that?

  21. Victoria@1910,
    “Turnbull is not the messiah. He is a very naughty boy (who lacks judgment)” Turnbull’s mother called him the ‘Messiah’, unlike Brian’s mother.

  22. [‘ During a Senate estimates hearing on Monday night, a Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet official revealed Mr Turnbull only requested the investigation at 1.58pm – just two minutes before a fiery question time where the saga featured prominently.’]

    To be fair to Malcolm, he was waiting for Robert to come up with a suggestion on how to handle this issue.

  24. joshgnosis: Triggs says conditions on Nauru are dangerous and unsafe, and children and families should not be returned to detention. #estimates

  25. jamesmassola: Coalition’s David Gillespie has told the party room that doing nothing is not an option on tax reform.

    jamesmassola: Christopher Pyne replies to David Gillespie: “we are here to get elected” in party room discussion

    jamesmassola: Malcolm Turnbull tells the Coalition party Room the only way to cut taxes is to cut government spending.

  27. guytaur

    [jamesmassola: Christopher Pyne replies to David Gillespie: “we are here to get elected” in party room discussion]

    How Christopher Pyne is that comment all about me.

  33. PVO is mightly annoyed that Turnbull is having to deal with Stuart Robert. As evidenced by his tweet, it appears Credlin was angry with Stuart Robert cos he was auctioning a blue tie for a fundraiser

    [Peter van Onselen
    Peter van Onselen – Verified account ‏@vanOnselenP

    This anger was over auctioning a blue tie…not attending a $2m donors event in China which was approved! Seriously. …
    3:03 PM – 8 Feb 2016]

  35. Peatling:

    [10:11am: Senator Macdonald now wants to know why the Human Rights Commission exists given there are human rights divisions within both the Attorney-General’s Department and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    Because one is an independent statutory body and the others are government departments answerable to the government, Senator Brandis says.

    He stops short of adding “Duh”.

    Your taxes at work people.]

  36. [10:11am: Senator Macdonald now wants to know why the Human Rights Commission exists given there are human rights divisions within both the Attorney-General’s Department and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    Because one is an independent statutory body and the others are government departments answerable to the government, Senator Brandis says.

    He stops short of adding “Duh”.

    Your taxes at work people.]

  38. victoria

    Quite well, I think. He successfully navigated his way from Milan to a ski resort, and from there to Genoa and the soccer camp. He did hit a minor hiccup when he got to the station near the camp, as apparently they didn’t have a taxi service, so he hitched!

    So he hasn’t done at all badly for a 19 year old in a strange country, on his own for the first time (I don’t think he even went on a school camp).

    He’s currently on the plane from Milan to Dubai.

    Got some really gorgeous photos on facebook, particularly from Genoa, but he hasn’t been particularly communicative, so I won’t get all the details until he comes home on the weekend.

  40. peg

    not the point I was trying to make, which was a minor one about the way stats can be interpreted, not a comment about X himself.

  43. Zoomster

    Good on him! He has done rather well indeed. My parents are native of Italy and whilst I would never live there, it is quite a stunning country

  44. Mal won’t raise taxes, says they must spend less. Yet the new hospital on Nauru will cost millions. All to keep up the farce that is ‘border protection’.

  47. lizzie

    I may have mentioned this a while ago. Know someone who is connected to someone in nat security. Therefore I am getting it secondhand. Anyhoo. They have stated that the budget for national security is unlimited.

  48. As i have stated several times, Turnbulll was drafted to be the front man so that they could proceed with the agenda unimpeded and guarantee re election. people had better start waking up to this fraud asap

  50. victoria

    This from journalist Tim Lester

    telester: For Legal & Constitutional #estimates, the next 15 mins will be its most productive this morning – it’s morning tea.

    Nothing has changed its still the same party of chaos and dysfunction that backed Abbott as PM

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