The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds at least some of the gloss coming off Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon poll ratings, with Labor gaining half a point on two-party preferred since last week and clawing back a point on the seat projection. This week’s Newspoll result means there are now two useable data points this year for personal ratings, the other being the monthly reading from Essential Research that was released a fortnight ago, and they collectively indicate a double-digit drop in Turnbull’s net approval rating since the end of last year, and a downturn in his standing on preferred prime minister. Nonetheless, Turnbull retains commanding leads, and the Coalition is credited with a bigger two-party vote and seat majority than was achieved at the 2013 election.
James_Jeffrey: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! https://t.co/B2yROHTEU7
Thats over Bruce Bilson news
guytaur
Funny but frustrating to say the least 🙂
I think Bruce Billson will be back because Turnbull knows Billson ran a fierce Anti Labor campaign out of his office, as well as the fact that Billson didn’t squeal like a stuck pig when he was dumped.
The most interesting facet of the Billson scenario is whether the factional warlords in the Liberal Party had already lined someone up to take his plum seat. Maybe noses out of joint if he doesn’t go.
C@tmomma@1952
He can still be challenged for pre-selection.
[Rowan
Rowan – @FightingTories
So Morrison wants to fudge the budget by saying they have a 50b medicare ”saving” Even though they know it won’t get through.]
Oh dear and hmm:
http://www.afr.com/news/property-lobby-threatens-mps-over-negative-gearing-20160203-gmlaz3
bemused @ 1953,
‘ He can still be challenged for pre-selection.’
Which would intersect with Malcolm Turnbull’s decree that no Sitting Member who wishes to stay should be challenged for pre-selection, doesn’t it?
C@tmomma
Why hmm?
Zoom – Nick X
He is v. v. active locally as well as visible on the federal stage. There is a sense of local guy does good. Being independent centre right fills a void but he doesn’t label himself as such. People believe his independence allows him to better represent the States interests.
Despite some whacky stunts he seems to portray calm and sense to many South Australians.
My feeling is small to medium businesses consider him their rep.
He has been around forages and no scandals. He works both local and national media well.
[confessions
Posted Tuesday, February 9, 2016 at 9:38 am | Permalink
Amy Feldtmann @AmyFeldtmann 17m17 minutes ago
Five mths ago today, Aus govt announced it was taking 12,000 Syrian/Iraqi refugees. This takes time but to only have settled *26* = farcical]
Let’s see. Five a month makes 60 a year which means that the 12,000 should all be sorted by 2315.
I am starting to think that every time Turnbull seems to settle, another hand grenade is thrown. Hmmm feels like deja vu. 😀
Billson had announced his retirement at the coming election.
Brilliant forward planning.
the govt strategy must be to have so many balls in the air, so that Labor cannot hone in on one thing at a time.
I can’t think of any tax policy change that won’t have some lobby group threatening MP’s. If you think the Property Council is threatening wait for the superannuation lobby groups squeal when they try and touch superannuation.
C@tmomma
[ Oh dear and hmm:
http://www.afr.com/news/property-lobby-threatens-mps-over-negative-gearing-20160203-gmlaz3 ]
It would be interesting to see how many ALP voters have negatively geared property investments, compared to LNP voters. Just off the top of my head, I reckon it would be significantly less. And given the other issues on the table at the coming election – i.e. GST, Medicare, Health & Education etc, I don’t think this threat would be of significant concern to the ALP.
dwh
Yep. Gubbies effectively being run by the domestic terrorist rentier class.
The super mob have already done some pre-squealing just in case the Gubbies think the super pig might fly.
GuardianAus: Tax reform meeting cancelled until Malcolm Turnbull provides ‘clarity’ to states, territories https://t.co/r4OfQEhUWQ
Going to be a long wait.
davidwh
As indicated in report re negative gearing. Many are marginal seats and not on high incomes. On the other hand, getting rid of super concessions for the rich, will affect liberal voters in usually safe Liberal seats
victoria
[ the govt strategy must be to have so many balls in the air, so that Labor cannot hone in on one thing at a time. ]
They are trying to divert attention from the fact that Mal seems to be missing a pair.
Good point. The main reason for failure to protect the community from the damage done by poker machine operators is the pusillanimous attitude of federal Labor to the issue. Julia Gillard had her chance to do something worthwhile on this matter but squibbed it. She was intimidated by the poker machine lobby and thought that playing silly buggers with parliamentary numbers by installing Peter Slipper as Speaker was more important than addressing the scourge of problem gambling.
victoria
That assumes they have a strategy.
I wonder how many Greens supporters have negatively geared properties. I’d suspect it is much higher than the average.
Malcolm Turnbull announced he was leaving politics back in 2010 and then changed his mind. I believe they even had the valedictory speeches over and done with before he came around.
I’m pretty sure Colin Barnett annouinced his retirement from politics in the year befor he became Premier too.
Politicians- Can you believe anything they say?
The only reason you’d go to a polly’s funeral would be to ensure they are in the casket ready for despatch.
mikejanda: $36 billion wiped of the ASX in the first 90 minutes with 2.4% slump https://t.co/Qiyp7QxFj8 @ChrisWeston_IG says “bucket load of concern”
GG
Too true.
Been wanting to ask re state politics. What do you make of the manner in which Andrews has handled removal of rail crossings sky rail plan?
The Greens Party has been in the forefront advocating changes to negative gearing.
Many Greens voters and supporters would be aware of the party’s policy.
17 June 2015: http://scott-ludlam.greensmps.org.au/campaigns/reforming-negative-gearing
[The Australian Greens have announced a costed proposal to reform negative gearing and use the proceeds to boost affordable housing supply and provide accommodation for people experiencing homelessness.
Why should people on low and middle incomes subsidise the property investments of others? Our proposal to reform negative gearing is based on models outlined in consecutive reports by a wide range of advocates and economists. Removing this unfair distortion from the tax system should be part of the national discussion on tax reform…]
8 Feb 2016: http://scott-ludlam.greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/treasurer-should-not-be-so-quick-rule-out-negative-gearing-reform-greens
[Malcolm Turnbull must ignore Scott Morrison’s comments and implement negative gearing reform, Australian Greens Deputy Leader and Housing Spokesperson Senator Scott Ludlam said today.
“Negative gearing is an excessively generous scheme whereby low and middle income earners effectively subsidise property investments for the wealthy. More than half of all negatively geared properties in Australia are owned by people in the top 10% of income earners.]
Greens fact sheet: http://scott-ludlam.greensmps.org.au/sites/default/files/mythbusting_negative_gearing_-_17_june_2015_0.pdf
1955
C@tmomma
Negative gearing should be reformed. Negative gearing is a subsidy system. The current arrangements provide a subsidy to one class of buyers that is not available to other buyers.
Those without property or who cannot take advantage of the tax system end up providing a subsidy to those who compete against them to buy property.
One result of this subsidy has been to encourage massive over-buying of established property, over time adding to the price of housing, so that we now have an absolutely enormous national property bubble that, via the banking system, is guaranteed by taxpayers.
It is the worst of all worlds. We have to dismantle it…and do it very carefully.
guytaur
Yep the share market has the wobbles
[14.I can’t think of any tax policy change that won’t have some lobby group threatening MP’s. If you think the Property Council is threatening wait for the superannuation lobby groups squeal when they try and touch superannuation.]
I’m not sure I’d take on negative gearing, largely because killing the ridiculous CGT discount is more important IMHO.
However I think there is a lot to be gained politically by taking in a lobby group in a determined deliberate powerful way – so long as you win.
Nicholas
Well, there ARE issues more important than pokies, so I think that having the numbers in the Lower House was a bit more important.
[You can only conclude that the last minute scramble to inform people happened because Labor wanted to control the media agenda and maximise the impact of its announcement to regain control of the political agenda. In doing so, it alienated residents in three of its safe electorates along the line: Oakleigh, Clarinda and Keysborough.
The result is that the government is now being forced to weather a barrage of criticism from furious locals who believe the government’s consultation process has been a sham from the start. And none of this has anything to do with the merits of the actual plan.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/team-andrews-risks-lurching-from-one-crisis-to-another-20160208-gmop63.html#ixzz3zcwHfmdP
peg
The Greens also have proposals to change the laws around donations, doesn’t mean they’ve implemented them.
C@t..you’d be really pleased with WA Labor’s pre-selections so far. In two well-winnable metro Lib-held marginals – Cowan and Swan – Labor has chosen talented, articulate, highly-electable women. Anne Aly in Cowan and Tammy Solonec in Swan are a great credit to WA Labor. They will both get strong Party support and, given the standing of the local Liberals, they should both win.
1971
Green voters are, adjusted for education, not of above average wealth. That indicates they do not disproportionately have non-education based wealth, such as rental properties.
Greens probably are slightly more likely to have negatively geared properties than ALP voters but are definitely less likely to have them than Liberal voters because people with non-education based wealth mostly vote Liberal because they are the party of non-education wealth.
The Greens voters who do have negatively geared properties would mostly be unlikely to change their votes based on Green opposition to it because it is a long standing Green position to oppose it.
1978
WeWantPaul
The effect of conceding to the calls by the Property Council has been declining rates of home ownership and rising poverty among those who rent.
Considering subsidised property is now the asset-class of choice among the wealthy, we should take a long hard look at the way investment property is taxed. Property tax is effectively a wealth tax. So we should certainly repeal the CGT discounts and review both Stamp Duty and Land Tax.
Another damming report about the NT intervention – a policy implemented and continued for many years with bipartisan support.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/09/northern-territory-intervention-should-be-disbanded-says-indigenous-advocacy-group
[The National Congress of Australia’s First Peoples has repeated its call for the Northern Territory intervention to be disbanded after a report found it had failed to deliver substantial reform on areas covered by Close the Gap goals and violated human rights obligations.]
https://newmatilda.com/2016/02/09/48526/
[2007 also saw the launch of John Howard’s Northern Territory Intervention, continued by the new Labor government under the moniker Brighter Futures.
Dr Gray and the Castan Centre used the report’s findings to deliver the government their own score card on key areas of the Intervention and ‘close the gap’ strategy, returning a fail grade in all areas bar education, which was awarded a 5/10 mark.
The Castan report paints a bleak picture of the impact policies associated with the Intervention have had in the NT, where outcomes remain particularly poor.]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2016/feb/09/well-never-close-the-gap-until-we-start-again-with-indigenous-policy
[Major party politicians will greet the report with predictable platitudes and laments. You hear it every year: Oh yes, there have been some minor improvements (hear, hear!) but we must not rest until we have done much, much better or we will not reach our set targets by 2018.
The cosy bipartisanship surrounding most aspects of the top-down federal policy-making for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, including the annual response to Closing the Gap, conceals Australia’s endemic failure to its first peoples.]
I’d characterise X as being from the Well-Meaning, Self-Promoting, Independent Populist Party.
victoria,
‘ Why hmm? ‘
Mainly because the Anti Problem Gambling and Anti Mining Tax campaigns, run with the money from the bloated coffers of the Vested Interest groups who reside at the Big End of Town, against the former Labor federal government, is seared into my brain forevermore and I would not like to see another cashed-up lobby group derail sensible policy change.
It disappoints me to see the Property Council not arguing their case on the merits but instead aiming their attacks on Marginal Seat Bedwetters. It’s disingenuous bordering on anti democratic.
[The sin of property
We do disdain
No one has any right to buy and sell
The earth for private gain]
Those days may have passed, but using good fortune (or hard earned fortune) to buy a additional property in order to reduce income tax and at the same time increase ones assets is a misuse of a resource (both the land and public funds).
Basically I think a pincer movement should be attempted whereby the government attacks Super loopholes and concessions but stops the flight to Property Investment to avoid this by making changes to Negative Gearing.
Win-Win for the Budget.
Hi Greensborough Growler! Good to see you back here. 🙂
Guess what? The Air Conditioning Installers are finally coming here tomorrow! They’ve been too busy to fit me in up until now! 😀
GG
Strikes me you might be in a particularly good position to assess the impact of a change in negative gearing rules.
Any thoughts as to how it would be distributed across the party divide, apart from you comment re Greens above?
Apologies if you’va already made a comment – don’t have time to read back at the moment.
[26.The Greens Party has been in the forefront advocating changes to negative gearing.]
But oddly nothing about how the proposal works.
If I’m correct it works by quarantining to a property (presumably a title) all losses and from memory doesn’t even allow losses to be carried forward. It seemed to apply to not just residential, but industrial and commercial as well.
Looks a lot like the kind of policy you come up with as a political stunt when you know you’ll never have to implement it.
briefly @ 1976,
‘ One result of this (Negative Gearing) subsidy has been to encourage massive over-buying of established property, over time adding to the price of housing, so that we now have an absolutely enormous national property bubble that, via the banking system, is guaranteed by taxpayers.’
Which is why I have always wondered if you limit Negative Gearing to new housing stock will that be a positive, or will it squeeze out First Home Buyers?
‘1983’
What is ‘non-education wealth’?
[Considering subsidised property is now the asset-class of choice among the wealthy, we should take a long hard look at the way investment property is taxed. Property tax is effectively a wealth tax. So we should certainly repeal the CGT discounts and review both Stamp Duty and Land Tax.]
Definitely agree. And confession many years ago as a junior advisor I did sit on a property council tax committee (for free hated doing it). But all the modelling I’ve seen recently is that the kicker in negative gearing is the CGT discount. Particularly for a short term investment you almost certainly pay more in stamp duty than you save in income tax. You only win overall if your post CGT take is greater than the stamp duty less income tax savings.
There is also the basic concept that you get to deduct losses. In fact our loss rules are pretty generous – the easy gate to shut is the business loss to payg earnings gate, but that is the gate that will least hurt the wealthy and most hurt ‘average’ people.
CTar1
I think Tom is trying to differentiate between earned income generated wealth and passive income generated wealth (created through assets that havent been earned).
I would suggest it is possible to generate substantial earned income without being highly educated – either through unfair advantage or hard yakka.
The self interest of most people in Australia is to stop property prices rising. Only those already in the market and willing to sell want fast rises in property prices and rents. In fact in reality what they want is profit no matter what the rent or property price is.
So look at the property market and realistically look at how many are selling existing properties. There are not many at all. Its all build and keep as the housing supply continues to fall behind demand.
The only way to fix this is to have supply. So one negative gearing affect that is very worth while is negative gearing only on new properties not existing properties and that has to have an expiry date.
Another good way to slow the price rise in the property market is to have a capital gains tax replace stamp duty. It is levied on the seller not the buyer.
However that means you would have to make all the money go to the states or they would never agree to abolish the lucrative revenue stream of stamp duty.
G
except the theory that we have a shortage of housing is contested.