BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Coalition

Aggregated poll ratings find Malcolm Turnbull falling short of the heights he achieved towards the end of last year, without giving Labor any real cause for optimism about the election due later this year.

The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds at least some of the gloss coming off Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon poll ratings, with Labor gaining half a point on two-party preferred since last week and clawing back a point on the seat projection. This week’s Newspoll result means there are now two useable data points this year for personal ratings, the other being the monthly reading from Essential Research that was released a fortnight ago, and they collectively indicate a double-digit drop in Turnbull’s net approval rating since the end of last year, and a downturn in his standing on preferred prime minister. Nonetheless, Turnbull retains commanding leads, and the Coalition is credited with a bigger two-party vote and seat majority than was achieved at the 2013 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Coalition”

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  2. Wayne Swan ‏@SwannyQLD · 4h4 hours ago
    BCA has no idea. The cause of its dysfunction infects the Lib Party – the blindness of affluence. See #TheGoodFight
    :large

  5. victoria@1960

    I am starting to think that every time Turnbull seems to settle, another hand grenade is thrown. Hmmm feels like deja vu.

    He pulled the pin out of the Tax grenade and its blown up in his face.

    He has lost control of it all when the AFR says the following (AFR BTW….catching up with whats been said here on PB for sometime now) –

    [ A tax debate shemozzle, for that is what it has become, raises questions anew about Turnbull’s political judgement,

    …Business is dismayed over what it perceives to be a vacillating leadership,

    …Months of drift on the tax issue – of not ruling anything in or out, of differences of emphasis between Prime Minister and Treasurer – has left the country confused.]

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbulls-tax-shemozzle-raises-questions-of-judgment-20160208-gmo9vf

    and –

    [….the question increasingly will be asked: what is the point of Mr Turnbull’s government? ]

    http://www.afr.com/opinion/editorials/malcolm-turnbulls-government-what-is-the-point-of-it-20160208-gmoj08#ixzz3zboZiskh

  7. G
    [We have a shortage of housing. See Housing Department waiting lists and people sleeping on the streets]

    I tried to post a nice long reply to that. But it got eaten by the dog. I dont know the full details behind the dept of housing waiting list, and certainly dont know why people are on the street. The is very likely a shortage of housing in the right areas for these people. Perhaps there is a lack of government funding to assist them in owning a house or accessing cheap rental.

    But as for the market as a whole, if you ignore the usual articles from interest groups and try to prise out the independent analysis you will notice many say undersupply is either a myth or is overstated.

  9. SK

    Then those articles are lying. The years of people waiting for housing on lists with departments is no myth.

    People sleeping on the streets is no myth.

    That is you indication of a housing shortage not BS from those justifying their profits

  10. Renai LeMay
    Renai LeMay – Verified account ‏@renailemay

    ABC #estimates is now pausing for lunch, the @NickRossTech stuff will likely start after 2pm

  12. Simon

    [The is very likely a shortage of housing in the right areas for these people. Perhaps there is a lack of government funding to assist them in owning a house or accessing cheap rental.]

    It has nothing to do with the right area they do not get a choice and if they knock it back they stay on the list.

    I worked in Glebe for the State Member of the time and there are absolutely thousands looking for a home and it is a very slow process.

  13. [Mainly because the Anti Problem Gambling…Tax campaigns, run with the money from the bloated coffers of the Vested Interest groups who reside at the Big End of Town, against the former Labor federal government]
    Included in the top 5 political donors to the ALP for 2014-15 was Clubs NSW who contributed $66,000 to the party’s coffer.
    [ClubsNSW represents more than 1200 member clubs, and makes an important contribution to state and national policy direction, including the development for industry-specific legislation relating to alcohol, gambling, taxation, and industrial relations.]

    http://www.clubsnsw.com.au/our-industry/corporate-profile/about-clubsnsw

    Political donations from Registered Clubs Association of NSW (t/as ClubsNSW) dating back to 1999 can be found at:
    http://periodicdisclosures.aec.gov.au/Donor.aspx?SubmissionId=56&ClientId=16043

    What’s in it for Clubs NSW to be donating large sums over many years to the ALP if not to buy influence, specifically no ‘real reform’ supporting anti-problem gambling legislation?

  15. ABCNews24: The Government has successfully gagged the Shadow Attorney-General & Manager of Opposition Business ending #StuartRobert debate #auspol

  21. 9NewsAUS: UPDATE: @Telstra says it is investigating reports of an outage, affecting multiple cities across Australia. #9Newscomau

  22. [The embattled minister Stuart Robert took his controversial “private” trip to China several days before he was due in Singapore for official business, raising questions about portions of his international travel being taxpayer-funded.

    Live Labor questions Australia Post board member ‘headlining’ Liberal fundraiser – politics live
    Malcolm Turnbull faces pressure over the future of his junior minister, Stuart Robert. All the developments from Canberra, live]

    Read more
    Guardian Australia asked Robert whether he had undertaken the Beijing visit as a side trip to his $10,450 government-funded trip

  26. Homelessness isn’t necessarily an indicator of housing supply. Many homeless people couldn’t even begin to afford a mortgage, no matter how cheap or available housing was or how easy it was to get a loan.

  27. GG

    [The only reason you’d go to a polly’s funeral would be to ensure they are in the casket ready for despatch.]

    Especially in Philip Ruddocks case !

  33. Using the basic microeconomic laws of supply and demand I think we can assume that most (not all) homelessness is an incicator that there is insufficient supply. If there was an oversupply the price would fall and more people would be able to afford to buy or rent.

    There are some homeless people who choose to live rough (I know of people who own homes who cannot live indoors), but these are rare.

    More commonly there are people who are socially dysfuctional such that they are unable to rent privately. People with a history of property damge, non payment of rent, just out of jail, very large families, drug use, alchoholics etc. This is a very real problem, for housing agencies, who often give such people priority.

  34. zoomster

    Yes it does. Housing Departments are rental not owner occupiers. So therefore renting a property mean you are not homeless.

    A basic fact I am surprised you are disputing

  36. jendudley: If this #TelstraDown issue continues, you realise we’re all going to have to talk to one another today. In real life. #TheHorror

  37. dtt

    I think we’re talking about different things.

    There can be (nominally) enough houses to meet demand whilst at the same time having a housing shortage.

    This can be for a number of reasons – for example, an oversupply of unsuitable housing (e.g. apartments when people want houses), people owning second or third homes (I would say the proportion of the population who own holiday homes, for example, has risen over the last couple of decades; similarly, I know of quite a few families locally who have two residences, their home and a ‘commuter pad’).

    The original comment (not made by me) was that there was not an undersupply of housing as such, but that the housing that existed was not necessarily available.

    Homelessness isn’t an indicator when we’re discussing that scenario.

  38. guytaur

    [So therefore renting a property mean you are not homeless.

    A basic fact I am surprised you are disputing
    ]

    OK, so we’re not talking about the same thing, because I wasn’t (obviously) disputing that. (In fact, I deliberately didn’t refer to public housing at all).

  39. MTBW and G
    You are talking about a specific housing type. I am talking about the market in general.

    The crisis in affordable housing and accessible rentals is more complicated than you are stating. 200000 houses were built last year, 200000 more will be built this year. The question you should be asking is ‘Why arent enough of these houses in the affordable market?’, not ‘why arent we building more houses?’.

  40. ..I should add, of course, that another factor is the location of the housing. So you can have plenty of houses available, but in the ‘wrong’ location.

  41. zoomster

    Under supply exists. Its why people are on waiting lists and homeless.
    The fact the market may be supplying more houses for the rich does not change the basic fact there is an under supply of houses.

    The reasons may be varied however the fact remains the waiting lists for Department of Housing places and the number of homes is the indication of housing supply not the market people making excuses.

  42. SK

    The question should be why is the market failing our society in not providing the right housing for all people.

    This is market failure and government failure. All the excuses you list are used by the US real estate market and governments so they don’t have to deal with their homeless problem.

    Australia should not be following their lead

  43. Simon

    [The question you should be asking is ‘Why arent enough of these houses in the affordable market?’]

    Sydney is not the right place to ask for that the median is about $800,000.

  44. MTBW
    [the number of people living in shop doorways would shock you a lot of them mentally ill.]
    I havent always lived in the leafy Adelaide Hills. In student digs in Erko and going out late in the X, as well as working in William St at 3am (no, not that sort of work), you get to see a lot. But nothing prepared me for a month working in Macquarie Fields.

  47. dwh

    Rich is relative. Rich is certainly those with more wealth than those on housing lists and homeless.

    Its not a small number its a large number.

  48. Simon

    [But nothing prepared me for a month working in Macquarie Fields.]

    That is interesting it is also a largely Housing Commission area and yes a lot of the tenants may not be the best of tenants.

  50. G
    [The question should be why is the market failing our society in not providing the right housing for all people.]
    Agree
    [This is market failure]
    Not sure, how about the market isnt failing, but it is failing society?
    [and government failure]
    Agree
    [All the excuses you list are used by the US real estate market and governments so they don’t have to deal with their homeless problem]
    I dont understand this. What excuses? I just dont think we should heat up the residential construction market anymore than it is by buying into the developers mantra of undersupply.

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