Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour, as respondents say yes to Australia Day and no to increased military involvement in the Middle East.

I’m afraid I won’t be able to treat you to the normal weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate update this week, but given the ongoing stability of the polling situation generally, you’re probably not missing much. We do, however, have the first fortnightly rolling average result for the year from Essential Research, last week’s result having been drawn from a single week’s sample. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 51-49 to 52-48, but the primary votes are unchanged at 44% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 10% for the Greens.

Other results from Essential Research show little change in perceptions of the state of the economy on two such results last year, with 28% rating it as good (up two from September) and 31% poor (down one), while 30% rate the economy as heading in the right direction (down four) versus 38% for wrong direction (down one). Scott Morrison is favoured better to handle the economy by 26% (down one), versus 19% for Chris Bowen (up one). Eighteen per cent favour increasing Australia’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq, with 34% wanting it decreased and 32% favouring no change. Respondents took a favourable view of Australia Day, which 56% rated “a day of national pride” against 22% who opted for two disapproving choices: “a day of reflection on the impact on indigenous people” (14%) and “irrelevant in the 21st century” (8%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. kakuru@342

    bemused

    From personal observation, the Universities are not really interested in preventing cheating and enforcing standards. Unless it gets so blatant they are forced to act.


    As someone who currently works within the university system, I’m forced to agree.

    My experience was as a Post Grad student and Tutor.

    I was appalled that I had students whose command of English was so poor that they had no chance. Clearly the University just wanted the money.

    And as a student I complained about the behaviour of a couple of other students and no-one wanted to know. At the very least they should have failed the subjects.

  2. billie

    some of the best teachers I know were bad students. They know why they were bad students and use those experiences to engage with their students.

    My sister (not English qualified) taught English for a couple of years. She would misspell a word on the board, look at it, pull out her dictionary, and correct it. She would explain to students that this was the process you needed to go through if you were bad at spelling, and there was nothing to be ashamed of about it.

  3. The question is whether Bloomberg can carry the Republican party.

    I thought the Bloomberg story was that he was feeling out support for running as an independent (not as a Republican) seeing an opportunity with Trump looking like getting up on the Republican side and Hillary or Sanders on the Dems resulting in potentially a “middle” looking for an alternative and a big vote split.

  4. I’m glad the dog didn’t suffer. But was it necessary for the ABC to run this as a ‘top story’ for at least 24 hours?

    [If one hangs out with football stars, there’s a strong incentive to keep a mobile phone handy, after phone footage of Roosters captain Mitchell Pearce pretending to fuck a dog sold for $60,000 yesterday.
    The video, taken on a mobile phone on Australia Day in Sydney, features an apparently drunk Pearce trying to kiss a woman, who rejects him saying she is a lesbian. The football star then picks up her small dog and pretends to thrust into it, before the woman takes it off him. Pearce then urinates on some furniture. He was this morning stood down.]

    MYRIAM ROBIN AND GLENN DYER

  5. BW,

    Maybe Gillard’s sledge of Pyne being a “mincing poodle” was more pointed than first thought.

    You never know with Christopher.

  6. lizzie

    [But was it necessary for the ABC to run this as a ‘top story’ for at least 24 hours? ]

    I agree but think also that it wouldn’t just be the ABC running this story over and over.

  7. [I thought the Bloomberg story was that he was feeling out support for running as an independent (not as a Republican) seeing an opportunity with Trump looking like getting up on the Republican side and Hillary or Sanders on the Dems resulting in potentially a “middle” looking for an alternative and a big vote split.]

    That is how it was reported on the ABC this morning Jackol.

  8. Bemused,

    Engineers are notorious for drinking alcohol and being belligerently stubborn.

    I can see why you’d enjoy their company.

  9. billie, it is now becoming excepted by the government that the end product is more important than the raw product. With the uni I work for, the teacher Ed courses are designed so that one of the first things a low/no atar student has to do is get up to the standard required by doing enabling courses with measurable and monitored outcomes.

    Bemused, I have had pressure put on me to pass one or two students, but that was by a pretty pathetic lecturer, fortunately, when I do any academic work (I am more of an Admin/Quality person) I usually do it for the head of school, so pressure doesn’t work very well with me 🙂

    Tom.

  10. Unity Hall Hotel is indeed in Grayndler. Sydney has moved further east. Sydney was also supposed to gain south Paddington, but the residents made a ruckus about wanting to be in the PMs seat of Wentworth. That really was one of their arguments, although I think they were really worried it would affect their property values.

  11. How dare a mere firefighter challenge a former student politician and former political staffer and current waste of space for a seat in parliament. What cheek.

  12. Trump, although leading the Republican nomination process atm is not guaranteed as the nomination.

    There’s no reason for Bloomberg to run as an Independent because he won’t win and winning would be the only reason he would run.

    The Republicans will be desperate to draft anyone but Trump come the Convention.

    Lots of popcorn needed in this battle.

  13. [354
    Jackol
    I thought the Bloomberg story was that he was feeling out support for running as an independent
    ]

    My understanding is that Bloomberg talked about stand as an ‘moderate’ independent if Sanders and Trump bare looking certain to get the Democratic and Republican nominations respectively.

  14. William Bowe@369

    Say what you will against Bemused, but I’m pretty sure he’s not “notorious for drinking alcohol”.

    Thank you William. Your cheque is in the mail. 😉

    I was interested in your comments about Anne Aly on PM.

  15. William,

    And neither am I despite the barbs one receives by the continuously belligerent ignorami.

    It’s fascinating how you jump to the defence of our resident old goat. But can never see yourself clear to condemn his misogyny and general intemperance.

    But, hey, it’s your blog fire away.

  16. zoomster@374

    There are an awful lot of engineers who are climate change denialists. Not sure why that is.

    Reading IEAust publications would lead you to question that.

    Some may look to ‘engineered’ solutions.

  17. CTar1

    [it wouldn’t just be the ABC running this story over and over.]

    I would prefer the ABC didn’t sink to the level of commercial gossip sheets. Besides, the whole thing is in poor taste. Why keep on repeating it.

  18. lizzie@380

    CTar1

    it wouldn’t just be the ABC running this story over and over.


    I would prefer the ABC didn’t sink to the level of commercial gossip sheets. Besides, the whole thing is in poor taste. Why keep on repeating it.

    Apart from the urination on the furniture which was gross, it was typical of the sort of boofhead entertainment young drunks get up to.

  19. zoomster @ 374

    [There are an awful lot of engineers who are climate change denialists. Not sure why that is.]

    I think it is more the case that the small number of climate change denialists who call themselves scientists are actually engineers (and geologists). I suspect those engineers in the club are there because engineering is about specifics and getting very precise answers to very precise questions. Scientists (who once called themselves natural philosophers) more typically look the best fit answer to a sometimes imprecise question.

    This means that when a scientist forecasts something, it is a best guess answer with the awareness that they can be proven wrong. When an engineer forecasts something, it has to be absolutely certain because many lives can be at stake if they are even slightly wrong. So engineers are conservative and work with concrete facts, rather than speculative (even though highly likely) propositions.

  20. dave@387

    although I think they were really worried it would affect their property values.


    Ha ! A very Sydney reaction

    Try shifting a postcode boundary in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs.

  21. I should add to my 388, by the way, that the renewable energy industry is, of course, hugely dependent on the work of engineers – and you would reasonably expect them not to be denialists.

  22. [But was it necessary for the ABC to run this as a ‘top story’ for at least 24 hours?]

    Don’t worry, they’ll run an anti-ALP story soon. #balance

  23. TPOF@391

    I should add to my 388, by the way, that the renewable energy industry is, of course, hugely dependent on the work of engineers – and you would reasonably expect them not to be denialists.

    That doesn’t necessarily follow.

    Engineers are focused on designing solutions to problems rather than wondering about causes unless directly relevant to the problem.

    If you get a job as an engineer for a company building wind generators, you don’t need to have any position on climate change to do your job.

  24. [And Geologists.]

    First, geologists work almost entirely on understanding the earth’s past before any sort of anthropomorphic impact. They identify dramatic events with huge impacts on the earth having happened in the past without human intervention and a small number will extrapolate this to think that human impact is nothing compared to changes in nature. Which is true, but still underestimates the impact of humans on climate. It’s a bit like saying that we ignore anything short of an asteroid hitting because that has had the greatest impact on climate.

    Secondly, they think in terms of very long time frames and have difficulty in coping with the relatively short one we are talking about in regard to the impending impact of anthropogenic global warming.

    And, finally, a huge number work for non-renewable energy companies and tend to adopt the group think of their employers and colleagues.

  25. [That doesn’t necessarily follow.]

    I agree, but you are more likely to want to work in an industry that reflects your own thinking and where your colleagues are thinking along the same lines. There are always exceptions. And, in any case, I suspect that the engineers who believe that global warming is not happening are exceptions to the thinking of most in their profession.

  26. [20.Say what you will against Bemused, but I’m pretty sure he’s not “notorious for drinking alcohol”.]

    I will say what I will! Thankyou William… There was a long list of things I wanted to say this morning … Where is it.

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