Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour, as respondents say yes to Australia Day and no to increased military involvement in the Middle East.

I’m afraid I won’t be able to treat you to the normal weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate update this week, but given the ongoing stability of the polling situation generally, you’re probably not missing much. We do, however, have the first fortnightly rolling average result for the year from Essential Research, last week’s result having been drawn from a single week’s sample. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 51-49 to 52-48, but the primary votes are unchanged at 44% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 10% for the Greens.

Other results from Essential Research show little change in perceptions of the state of the economy on two such results last year, with 28% rating it as good (up two from September) and 31% poor (down one), while 30% rate the economy as heading in the right direction (down four) versus 38% for wrong direction (down one). Scott Morrison is favoured better to handle the economy by 26% (down one), versus 19% for Chris Bowen (up one). Eighteen per cent favour increasing Australia’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq, with 34% wanting it decreased and 32% favouring no change. Respondents took a favourable view of Australia Day, which 56% rated “a day of national pride” against 22% who opted for two disapproving choices: “a day of reflection on the impact on indigenous people” (14%) and “irrelevant in the 21st century” (8%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 13 of 35
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  1. You gotta love this weather. It is cold and raining in my part of the world, and the street lights are still on. For a minute i thought we were in the middle of winter!
    Meanwhile yesterday my youngest was in the city. She was surprised to come out of a store after a short while to the street. It was as dark as night and then it started bucketing down with rain. After 10 minutes it was all over. Crazy stuff

  2. Ruawake, good myth busting. If Socrates wants to base his political support based on its members being Rhodes Scholars and capitalists, I suggest that he vote for Turnbull – he is a Rhodes Scholar and capitalist too. If only Abbott had a career in banking…

    Tom.

  4. For those among us who are interested – just a reminder that John and Chas are back with a new series of ‘Planet America’ on 24 tonight at 9pm

  5. For those in Brisbane.

    [On Saturday the 30th of January Bill Shorten will be kicking off Labor’s Fight For QLD Campaign at the Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre]

  6. For those among us who are interested – just a reminder that John and Chas are back with a new series of ‘Planet America’ on 24 tonight at 9pm

  7. Geoff Pearson
    Geoff Pearson – ‏@GCobber99

    Labor says Coalition ‘undermining’ NDIS over claims it cannot afford funding http://gu.com/p/4g7km/stw
    The Guardian
    The Guardian
    [Embedded image
    Labor says Coalition ‘undermining’ NDIS over claims it cannot afford funding

    Opposition says Labor had fully funded the national disability insurance scheme and the government is ‘misleading’ Australians in saying it cannot afford it
    View on web
    1:33 PM – 28 Jan 2016
    1 RETWEET]

  9. BK
    Stunning Adelaide Hills morning. Sun sparkling through rain drops hanging from leaves, birds deliriously chattering.

  10. [ Fulvio Sammut

    Posted Friday, January 29, 2016 at 8:36 am | Permalink

    phoenix, don’t you start now …

    ]

    Apologies Fulvio – nothing happened to my first post appearing for 3/4 minutes – so I re-posted – and both then appeared ….grrrrrrr….

  11. SUSC

    the Gonski reforms were based on widespread consultation, which included teachers.

    However, as one commentator said years ago, education is one of the most researched fields and one where the research is least implemented.

    This is largely because schools are rigid places in many ways. It has been observed before, for example, that school times are dictated by bus timetables (which are dictated by traditional adult work schedules) – even though the bulk of the research shows that a staggered start to the school day, particularly in high schools, would yeild better results all round.

    Teachers also are human beings. They know what works for them and they’re reluctant to change something that does. (It’s always hard to believe that, when what you’re doing works, something else can work better).

    However, the real problem for schools is the ‘parents know best’ approach to education, which has resulted in parent-dominated school boards in Victoria. We all like to believe that the education we received was the best possible, and we all like things we understand better than things we don’t. Thus parents tend to favour educational approaches which were similar to those they experienced, and assessment criteria they can understand, rather than those research says is more beneficial.

    All of these factors – and a few more – make educational reform extremely difficult. Education departments can issue all the edicts in the world, and teachers will quietly resist implementing them in the classroom. A teaching approach which engages students and produces productive classroom atmospheres will be opposed by parents because they can’t understand the report card. And so on.

  12. Tony Abbott defends ‘common sense’ in attack on gay marriage during speech to US Alliance Defending Freedom

    Former prime minister Tony Abbott will tell a conservative Christian group in the United States that allowing same-sex couples to wed will contribute to “the erosion of family” and urge policy makers to pass on the institution of marriage “undamaged” to future generations

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-defends-common-sense-in-attack-on-gay-marriage-during-speech-to-us-alliance-defending-freedom-20160128-gmgidu.html#ixzz3yZuGiikl

  14. Mark Kenny has nothing better to write, so he stirs up ALP leadership speculation (while admitting a change is not likely) and relies upon the ReachTel PPM which we know was a total f…up by ReachTel. And the Herald wonders why its circulation is falling.

  15. phonenixRed

    Your post re Abbott reminded me of the long meeting he had with his party when he was still PM re ssm. I remember DTT declaring the outcome a bonus for Abbott. Abbott and the party would benefit etc etc. you gotta laugh at such insight!!

  21. K17

    I suspect at the very least,mkenny realises Albo is not a serious contender cos he is now having to fight to retain his very marginal seat of Grayndler.
    Bowen would not improve Labor’s standing against Truffles the Messiah

  22. Victoria – I quite like Bowen. I think he’s a bright bloke. But I can’t see him as a leader. I think Kenny decided that having hit Turnbull with a wet lettuce yesterday “balance” required that he get stuck into Labor.

  24. poroti,

    Rumours are circulating that this record was drug influenced.

    WADA to conduct an inquiry.

    bemused being fingered as the likely source of injecting repetitive bullshit in to PB.

    Less to come!

  27. Morning all.

    Wow, just wow! The Ruddists better not read this or they’ll have a coronary.

    [And Rudd wasn’t just an incompetent arsehole, but incompetent partly because he was an arsehole. He was still using the phrase “the smartest guys in the room” as a compliment, even after it had become synonymous with Enron’s corporate corruption. He believed he could single-handedly find a missing plane in Papua New Guinea, simply by looking at maps all night in Canberra. Public servants talked about “the Eye of Sauron”, because any prime ministerial interest in your area would mean a certain trip to Mount Doom.

    Not so long ago, at the funeral of Gough Whitlam, former prime minister Kevin Rudd arrived to an icy and absolute silence from his comrades. It was so exquisitely awful it carried the tenor of another time, when words like “reputation” and “public disgrace” still really meant something. Dwell, for a moment, on what it takes to become the most despised person in the history of the Australian Labor Party, what kind of soul it takes to win that contest.]
    https://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/richard-cooke/2016/28/2016/1453936531/cult-arsehole

  31. From yesterday’s Crikey email:

    [MPs were also invited to nominate up to three priority locations in their electorate for towers, too, but only those MPs where less than 50% of their electorate is defined as a “major urban centre” with 100,000 people or more living there, or an area designated as “inner metropolitan”.

    According to information provided by the Department of Communications in response to questions from the last round of Senate estimates hearings, there were 75 eligible electorates under this definition, and, in total, the close-to 500 towers to be built or upgraded using federal funding were in 57 electorates across the country.

    The document reveals that of the 57 electorates to receive funding, 30 are held by Liberal MPs, while 14 are held by Nationals MPs, 10 are held by Labor MPs, with the remaining three held by independents.]
    Good news if you live in a rural coalition electorate like me, but this is just par for the course for coalition governments: they rarely govern in the national interest.

  33. confessions@654

    [ Not so long ago, at the funeral of Gough Whitlam, former prime minister Kevin Rudd arrived to an icy and absolute silence from his comrades. It was so exquisitely awful it carried the tenor of another time, when words like “reputation” and “public disgrace” still really meant something. Dwell, for a moment, on what it takes to become the most despised person in the history of the Australian Labor Party, what kind of soul it takes to win that contest. ]

    That was a defining moment in Australian political history.

  35. BK. Summer rain in Adelaide is a celebration.

    Hopefully my freshly laid and unsealed deck will not split and buckle in next weeks dry heat.

  36. [Darren
    Darren – ‏@djmer1

    Turnbull’s first extended press conference for the year doing a great job saying very little or nothing of substance #auspol
    1:43 PM – 28 Jan 2016
    4 RETWEETS]

  37. TPOF@560

    bemused at 549. My mistake. Alan Griffin. Snide put-down based on a not totally un-understandable error. No wonder you are so loved here. Point remains the same, even if your response is underwhelming.

    Very touchy. Must remember to treat you more gently.

  39. [That was a defining moment in Australian political history.]

    It certainly was. I’d say unprecedented too, at least in the modern era.

  40. [Turnbull’s first extended press conference for the year doing a great job saying very little or nothing of substance #auspol]

    I still say that what makes him look like he’s saying stuff is that Abbott was such a poor public speaker.

  41. PO – Yep, they’ll scream budget emergency (that they created) and then offer tax cuts. Go figure. This is why Labor should NOT offer tax cuts

  42. CTar1 – Maybe Foxtel is now realising that a lousy NBN hurts their business model (offering higher quality services!)

  46. WWP

    Re Labor’s Gonski funding announcement….Paula Matthewson (aka DragOnista) supports your contention re political strategy.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/01/28/labors-40bn-promise-pump-school-completion/

    [ANALYSIS: The Opposition shifts voters’ focus their way, but was it a smart move in the face of turmoil in the Turnbull government?

    Labor strategists may have judged the party inoculated from such criticism given education is traditionally a policy strength for Labor and the Gonski reforms were a proven winner for the Gillard government.

    However, voter confidence in Labor’s capacity to “ensure a quality education for all children” has dropped from 43 per cent in June 2014 to 31 per cent in recent times, while the Coalition is similarly rated at 30 per cent.

    Between Tony Abbott’s decision to stay in parliament, arch-conservatives refusing to abide by a plebiscite in favour of gay marriage, and NSW Liberals squabbling over pre-selections, voters are already being presented with ample reason to consider the alternative government.

    As we learned during the Rudd-Gillard years, the electorate thinks very poorly of party instability. The risk for Labor is that voters see economic competence as more important.

    Given Thursday’s education announcement has again drawn Labor’s economic credentials into question, the Opposition would have been better off postponing it until they’d unveiled additional revenue measures. They should have let the Coalition’s internecine antics dominate the media this week instead.]

  47. Gary,

    It looks like the one time the “you are posting too quickly” error trap would have been useful it wasn’t triggered 🙂

  49. On Liberal preselections in NSW PvO says Ruddock is most likely to retire, but BBishop…:

    [Bishop is hopeful of surviving for another three years via a backroom deal with her staffer Damien Jones and his wife, NSW upper-house member Natasha Maclaren-Jones. The original plan was to move Maclaren-Jones from state to federal politics to give her husband­ an easier preselection contest for her upper house slot.

    Bishop and her staffer were badly damaged by the Choppergate saga, but it seems their plan is to wait it out another three years. Jones would then contest the federal seat with Bishop’s full support.

    If this happens, it will make a mockery of Malcolm Turnbull’s claims that his party has embraced ­renewal.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/renewal-just-a-word-when-liberal-preselections-are-so-onesided/news-story/768d25193c4bcadcd9569304c4d37a19

  50. Good Morning

    The Presto story is because Foxtel has lost Showtime to Stan.

    Unlike Foxtel outfits like Showtime are innovative and agile and will go with the better service provider to give their customers the best quality possible.

    This means that Showtime has basically called out Murdoch for nobbling the NBN.

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