Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour, as respondents say yes to Australia Day and no to increased military involvement in the Middle East.

I’m afraid I won’t be able to treat you to the normal weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate update this week, but given the ongoing stability of the polling situation generally, you’re probably not missing much. We do, however, have the first fortnightly rolling average result for the year from Essential Research, last week’s result having been drawn from a single week’s sample. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 51-49 to 52-48, but the primary votes are unchanged at 44% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 10% for the Greens.

Other results from Essential Research show little change in perceptions of the state of the economy on two such results last year, with 28% rating it as good (up two from September) and 31% poor (down one), while 30% rate the economy as heading in the right direction (down four) versus 38% for wrong direction (down one). Scott Morrison is favoured better to handle the economy by 26% (down one), versus 19% for Chris Bowen (up one). Eighteen per cent favour increasing Australia’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq, with 34% wanting it decreased and 32% favouring no change. Respondents took a favourable view of Australia Day, which 56% rated “a day of national pride” against 22% who opted for two disapproving choices: “a day of reflection on the impact on indigenous people” (14%) and “irrelevant in the 21st century” (8%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Bemused

    I have ticked the box in the menu for spelling but it does no good.

    I tried chrome but got attacked by virus so reverted to Firefox.

  2. TPOF @ 546: The thing about Mr Rudd was that he retained a solid base of support in the electorate even after he was dumped. Mr Abbott doesn’t, and never will. An overwhelming majority had decided Mr Abbott was a flake, and were glad to see the back of him. As Ms Gillard’s popularity fell, it became easier for the Rudd supporters to rebuild his base in the Caucus, because they were channeling public opinion. Any move to bring Mr Abbott, or his form of government, back would be flying in the face of public opinion. The three As, Abbott, Abetz and Andrews can afford to engage in such quixotic dreams, because they all have safe seats. At the moment, the Liberal Party room is starting to focus on the question of whether they will have jobs after the coming election. Mr Abbott’s stirring can make that less likely, albeit slightly in my view, and will therefore be resented.

  4. pedant@552

    TPOF @ 546: The thing about Mr Rudd was that he retained a solid base of support in the electorate even after he was dumped. Mr Abbott doesn’t, and never will. An overwhelming majority had decided Mr Abbott was a flake, and were glad to see the back of him. As Ms Gillard’s popularity fell, it became easier for the Rudd supporters to rebuild his base in the Caucus, because they were channeling public opinion. Any move to bring Mr Abbott, or his form of government, back would be flying in the face of public opinion. The three As, Abbott, Abetz and Andrews can afford to engage in such quixotic dreams, because they all have safe seats. At the moment, the Liberal Party room is starting to focus on the question of whether they will have jobs after the coming election. Mr Abbott’s stirring can make that less likely, albeit slightly in my view, and will therefore be resented.

    A good summary.

    Outside of PB, Gillard was about as toxic as Abbott.

  5. pedant

    I fully agree with you although I do think that a formal split/remerger with the Nationals could be on the cards. This way most of the renegade Monkey Pods would keep their seats. There would be a block of 40 or so RWNJ in the HoR, with a much stronger cabinet presence via coalition.

  6. Bemused

    Tried all the obvious google advice. No joy.

    I use Avast virus protection. I am not sure why Chrome gave me trouble but it was serious so since I like Firefox anyway I went back to it.

  7. [But he is belligerently stubborn William? 😉

    It won’t be a cheque in your mail. 😛 ]

    I guessed that would be the case comrade.

  8. ATAR Scores

    Anyone below 60 does not deserve a place in any course at university.

    Any student who attended >50% of their classes in high school and can read & write English and do mathematics at a Yr 10 level or higher should score around that mark. Anyone of above average intelligence and decent English ability will score higher.

    If someone scores below this mark and wishes to go to university they should repeat Yr 12 or undertake some form of bridging (or English) course before being granted entry. In such a way someone with a disadvantage but with innate drive and ability to get there will still be able to do so.

    When I went back to do my Masters I shared with a guy doing first year bachelors who was one of those let in with an ATAR well below requirements. He failed all but one unit in his first year and all but one in his second. Was a great result for the universities income but not for the guy in question who did try hard (he just wasn’t very bright).

    I helped him study and was colossally shocked at how simple his assignments and exams actually were – reminded me of mid high school work and I think indicative of how low universities are trying to set the bar to still be able to graduate students and keep their over-stuffed budgets.

  9. I doubt most folks will take much notice, other than a parting upwardly pointing finger, of the likes of Abetz, Andrews and Bernardi. They may take notice of Abbott but only to ridicule him. Abbott’s latest brain-fart to address a US right wing group just confirms why we are lucky to see him gone as PM.

    Nope I think Turnbull will only be in real trouble if the Liberals as a larger group decide to commit ritual suicide. Highly unlikely. Or if Turnbull does something really dumb.

    I am believing, perhaps naively, that this election will be fought on issues.

  10. bemused at 549. My mistake. Alan Griffin. Snide put-down based on a not totally un-understandable error. No wonder you are so loved here. Point remains the same, even if your response is underwhelming.

  11. dtt @ 550

    And the point was that only a couple did the destabilisation initially. As with Abbott. The fact that it was about personality probably made Rudd a lesser threat. In any case, the underlying point is that in knocking over a sitting PM you create a groundswell of opponents around the ejected person. These are people who, for whatever reason, have it in for the current occupant. If things sour the numbers grow.

  12. davidwh @ 559 (and pedant)

    At the end of the day, I am not talking about the real likelihood of a revenant Tony Abbott. I am talking about disaffection with the person and policies of the person who replaced him.

    Abbott is not Rudd – nor is Turncoat. It is dangerous to take too much from historical precedents, especially in politics.

    But political parties have very powerful internal forces constantly competing against each other than need to be held in check. The fact that those in the Labor Opposition have been held in check until now is quite exceptional. But one reason is that malcontents have nowhere to go. No pretender is undermining Shorten and providing a rallying point for any players who have personal or policy differences with Shorten.

    On the other hand, Turncoat has at least two pretenders drawing malcontents and ambitious people into their orbits – Abbott and Morrison. At the same time, he has very serious policy and economic challenges which he is currently papering over aggressively with verbose waffle.

    To me, the great unknown is whether the papered over gaps will be exposed under internal and external pressures before an election is held. I just don’t know. But he is much more vulnerable than Bill Shorten and Labor – it’s a question of whether his huge lead in the polls will be sufficient to withstand that vulnerability.

  13. TPOF

    [Turncoat has at least two pretenders drawing malcontents and ambitious people into their orbits – Abbott and Morrison.]

    A real problem for the Libs. No matter how stupid they are the majority of them must realise both these are electoral poison for them.

  14. the majority of them must realise both these are electoral poison for them

    Abbott, surely, but Morrison I’m not so sure – I imagine they think that Scott “Stopped the Boats” Morrison is a surefire winner.

    Morrison’s biggest problem is he put his hand up to be treasurer, which surely ranks as the surest sign he has no clue – anyone with higher ambition who had an idea of the challenges imminent would have said “hell no”.

    Some have floated the idea that the malcontents are fostering Abbott’s revenge fantasies with the ultimate goal of having Abbott bring on a challenge and then installing Morrison as a compromise candidate. Probably nonsense, but who knows. And if this is the plan it probably doesn’t matter how much awareness Abbott and his lunar fringe may have. The more delusional the better probably.

    But Turnbull is bulletproof at the moment, and he will remain so while the polls favour him so handsomely. If the polls slip … well then it’s fun times all around.

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers – a bit of an early post today! And quite a bumper edition.

    Jess Irvine revisits the tax plan that Turnbull put out there ten years ago.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/exclusive-analysis-of-malcolm-turnbulls-tax-plan-revealed-sort-of-20160128-gmfxt4.html
    John McTiernan gives Shorten advice on how he might be able to beat Turnbull.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/28/if-bill-shorten-wants-a-chance-of-winning-the-election-this-is-what-he-has-to-do
    Is baby formula becoming a “tulip economy”? The government is essentially powerless to stop it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/government-powerless-to-stop-daigou-formula-hoarders-20160128-gmg6jo.html
    Matthew Knott examines Shorten’s education policy announcement.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-commits-to-fully-funding-gonski-as-part-of-election-year-education-reform-plan-20160127-gmfovf.html
    And we thought WE had asylum seeker problems!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/sweden-may-send-back-up-to-80000-asylum-seekers-after-pleas-rejected-20160128-gmgcct.html
    Obviously this precocious bighead just can’t help himself.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajer-fined-for-unlicensed-driving-but-gets-reprieve-over-unregistered-car-20160128-gmfz6r.html
    Greg Jericho digs deeply into the inflation figures.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/jan/28/inflation-is-pretty-much-dead-right-now-so-whats-with-the-markets-overreaction
    Anne Aly slams the politics of fear.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-candidate-and-terrorism-expert-anne-aly-questions-citizenship-laws-slams-politics-of-fear-20160128-gmg530.html
    “View from the Street” on how this government is still defeating the environment and human rights. And he has some “supporting” words for poor little Jamie Briggs. He also asks why we are letting the Australian Christian Lobby write policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-government-still-defeating-environment-human-rights-20160128-gmg52m.html
    Here the ACL boasts of its success in getting the SSM issue “kicked into the grass”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/28/same-sex-marriage-plebiscite-kicked-issue-into-long-grass-boasts-christian-lobby

  16. Section 2 . . .

    This girl has given Turnbull some home truths on marriage equality.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/lifestyle/relationships/young-girl-isabella-mills-tells-malcolm-turnbull-in-a-letter-the-samesex-marriage-plebiscite-is-a-waste-of-money/news-story/03f617770393b28fb95c074eaa5169f8
    It looks like next Friday’s directions hearing at the Royal Commission to rule on Pell’s return will be interesting to watch. If his legal phalanx proposes that Pell can’t come there will be a very vocal and emotional response from other’s representatives.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/will-george-pell-return-to-australia-20160128-gmgggs.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/28/george-pell-too-unwell-to-fly-days-before-decision-on-royal-commission-appearance
    Meanwhile things are hotting up for the Anglicans at the Child Abuse Royal Commission.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/28/royal-commission-hears-anglican-clergy-shared-secret-understanding-of-attraction-to-boys
    The troubled MyGov website has been taken from the DHS and moved to the Digital Transformation Office, Turnbull’s pet project. Let’s see how they go.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/troubled-mygov-website-to-be-taken-from-human-services-and-given-to-digital-transformation-office-for-streamlining-20160127-gmfoe3.html
    If children are required to have computer tablets why the ridiculously expensive Apple products?
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/back-to-school-supplies-extend-to-ipads-20160127-gmeu2z.html
    Gina’s had a lean year by the look of it.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/01/28/gina-bumped-top-rich-list-reclusive-american-australian-woman/
    No-one is buying the Scott Morrison makeover.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/scomo-soft-and-fluffy-with-added-stain-remover,8618
    US shootings since 1963 have killed more Americans that have died in all wars since then!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/gun-deaths-since-jfk-assassination_us_56a903c6e4b0f6b7d54485c4?section=australia
    The WHO is very concerned about the rapid spread of the Zika virus.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/28/zika-virus-spreading-explosively-says-world-health-organisation

  17. Section 3 . . .

    This doctor writes that the world without vaccines was a cruel place.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-world-without-vaccines-was-a-cruel-place-20160126-gmedwi.html
    Are the NSW police using a form of economic profiling by excluding cocaine from its drug-driving tests?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-police-accused-of-targeting-poorer-drivers-by-omitting-cocaine-swab-from-roadside-tests-20160128-gmg2tb.html
    Gillian Triggs writes that genuine marriage equality is overdue in Australia. Suck it up Erica and George!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/genuine-marriage-equality–is-more-than-overdue-in-australia-20160128-gmfyes.html
    Why authenticity is the greatest “spin” of all.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-authenticity-is-the-greatest-spin-of-all-20160127-gmflnn.html
    The Barbie Doll gets real at last!
    http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/jan/28/barbie-finally-becomes-a-real-girl-with-more-realistic-figure-and-skin-colours
    This scientific discovery has potential to get to the basis of schizophrenia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/dramatic-genetic-finding-takes-scientists-a-step-closer-to-schizophrenia-cause-20160128-gmgcv0.html
    It seems that some NRL players are education-proof.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/some-nrl-players-turn-out-to-be-education-proof-despite-the-codes-best–practice-training-20160128-gmg2du.html

  19. jackol

    [with the ultimate goal of having Abbott bring on a challenge and then installing Morrison as a compromise candidate. Probably nonsense, but who knows.]

    I agree. The idea that if Truffles wins the next election he will be quickly be deposed seem a bit out there. The party nutters have captured him already so he’s doing what they want and is still popular with the public.

  24. LGH 558

    You have forgotten the primary purposes of a modern university – to be self funding, so as to allow tax cuts, and to reduce youth unemployment statistics, to make the government look like a “skilled” economic manager. Who cares what is in the student’s best interests?

  25. Seriously, if Labor still can’t sort out its internal mess in preselections after the Rudd Gillard wars it is doomed to be in opposition a long time. Turnbull is not doing very much other than tokenism, being entirely constrained by the far right loons that dominate his party room. Yet the mere perception of the Labor machine will allow him to cakewalk to victory. If Shorten cannot influence the Wills preselection it suggests his own authority is very limited. Have a good day all.

  27. Socrates

    [ If Shorten cannot influence the Wills preselection it suggests his own authority is very limited. ]

    Shoten can’t influence preselection. Turnbull can’t influence policy. Di Natale can’t influence anything.

    Which one would you choose?

  28. Player one

    None of the above. At present it will be Nick Xenophon first, Liberal last, then throwing darts in between. Also, saying the other side is lousier is a pretty weak defence of pretty weak people.

    Regarding driverless cars, I said the other day that they will not eliminate inner city congestion and driverless buses will be more important. So here on cue is this story. Adieu.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-29/driverless-bus-to-take-to-dutch-public-roads-in-world-first/7122874

  29. briefly @ 570,

    Thanks. 😳

    I just cannot let aspersions be cast that sully the concept of Gonski. 🙂

    You’re up early aren’t you? 🙂

    Anne Aly for Cowan, good choice! Does she happen to work at Edith Cowan Uni too?

    Have you got any idea about Melissa Parke’s replacement yet?

  31. Socrates

    [ Also, saying the other side is lousier is a pretty weak defence of pretty weak people. ]

    Just as well I didn’t try and use that defence then, isn’t it?

  32. Well, I just listened to Marius Benson’s political wrap of the last 24 hours on Newsradio and he outlined the competing platforms of both political groupings very well I thought.

    Basically he believes the election will be a contest of ideas. The Liberals and Nationals in one corner promising smaller government via defunding Health and Education and giving money back to taxpayers to pay for what they can afford themselves. Also for Corporates to get more money that they don’t deserve. Versus Labor who believes in a Progressive Tax system that funds social goods. Without having to increase the GST as the Coalition want to.

    Benson also correctly identified where the money was going to come from to pay for Labor’s Gonski funding proposal and debunked the Liberal’s scare campaign around that.

    I hope he continues being so even-handed. 🙂

  33. [579
    C@tmomma]

    Good Morning Cat 🙂

    I met Anne yesterday. She will be a great candidate. She’s articulate and purposeful and is a good match for the seat. Yes, she works at ECU.

    I haven’t heard anything about Fremantle other than the left appear to think they have a good claim on it.

    We have a suite of strong candidates now in marginal metro seats that are winnable – Burt, Swan, Cowan, Hasluck – and the party office is running hard already. It’s going to be one of our better years, I hope.

  34. This guy does sound like the next best choice for Wills:

    ‘ The Victorian branch of the AWU has thrown its weight behind Peter Khalil, a former national security adviser to Kevin Rudd, SBS executive and policy maker for the coalition that overthrew Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003.’

  35. Socrates should learn to read.

    [AWU want Peter Khalil, ex-Rudd national security adviser, in the safe ALP seat of Wills]

    This is the dumb union hack.

    [Peter Khalil Is a Director of Arcana Partners a consulting firm that provides strategic and corporate advisory, government relations and communications services. He has also been recently appointed as Victorian multicultural commissioner. He was most recently Director of Corporate Affairs, Strategy and Communications at SBS. He has been a consultant for Hawker Britton andheld the position of a non-resident Adjunct Associate Professor at the Centre for International Security Studies at Sydney University where he developed national security courses for senior levels of Government.

    Previously Peter worked as Foreign Policy and National Security Adviser and as Senior International Adviser to the Federal Government, including for former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and the Minister for Defence.

    Prior to these appointments Peter was based in New York providing political risk consultancy to government, multinational corporations and Wall Street Financial institutions. Peter has been a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC (2004/05) after earlier serving with the Australian Department of Defence in Iraq in 2003/04 where he was the Director of National Security Policy for the Coalition Provisional Authority and was awarded the Australian Overseas Humanitarian Services medal. He also worked for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    Peter has testified before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has published widely including op-ed pieces in the New York Times, Guardian (UK) the Australian, the Age and Sydney Morning Herald, and has made regular appearances on ABC programs such as Lateline and the Drum, as well as CNN and the BBC.

    Peter has Degrees in both Law and Arts from Melbourne University and a Masters of International Laws from the Australian National University.]

    You couldn’t be more wrong Soc, as usual your anti ALP rant comes unstuck.

  39. The problem with education reform is the reform is driven by academics without really listening to the teachers at the coal face.

  46. Even from that article, it’s obvious that there is a strong field for preselection for Wills, with candidates who appear likely to be outstanding MPs.

  47. briefly,
    Good candidates = good results 🙂

    I’m glad to see the WA Branch has been working hard to that end. Our NSW candidates come from a wide variety of areas too. I hope you take advantage of the sort of innovative corflute design that Dr Peter Huang did in order to attract eyeballs. You should check it out. He has already got his campaign team on the hustings as well!

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