I’m afraid I won’t be able to treat you to the normal weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate update this week, but given the ongoing stability of the polling situation generally, you’re probably not missing much. We do, however, have the first fortnightly rolling average result for the year from Essential Research, last week’s result having been drawn from a single week’s sample. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 51-49 to 52-48, but the primary votes are unchanged at 44% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 10% for the Greens.
Other results from Essential Research show little change in perceptions of the state of the economy on two such results last year, with 28% rating it as good (up two from September) and 31% poor (down one), while 30% rate the economy as heading in the right direction (down four) versus 38% for wrong direction (down one). Scott Morrison is favoured better to handle the economy by 26% (down one), versus 19% for Chris Bowen (up one). Eighteen per cent favour increasing Australia’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq, with 34% wanting it decreased and 32% favouring no change. Respondents took a favourable view of Australia Day, which 56% rated “a day of national pride” against 22% who opted for two disapproving choices: “a day of reflection on the impact on indigenous people” (14%) and “irrelevant in the 21st century” (8%).
Pegasus
The problem for the argument put forward by WWP and others is that the Federal Liberals are proven to not be able to manage the economy where Labor has been proven to have managed the economy during the GFC.
With Gonski this has been reinforced with NSW Liberals backing Labor on Gonski.
DTT@536,
[I am using firefox. Browser spell checker disappeared one day and I have no idea how to get it back. May be a simple options box to tick but where do I find it. Have tried the obvious places.]
You need to find the preferences menu/page in Firefox. If you let me know whether you are using a pc or a mac I can provide more specific info.
Once in preferences, click on advanced, and then you should see a “general” tab. Click on that, and you should see a checkbox for “Check my spelling as I type”. Make sure this is checked, and you should have your spellcheck back.
Guytaur – don’t quite follow that!
frankellyabc: NSW Liberal Education Minister nails his colours to the Gonski mast on @RNBreakfast https://t.co/19x2rEuyy5
K17
Which post?
Labor has already funded the Gonski initiatives via tobacco excise tax etc, which were, sensibly, announced months ago.
Labor will soon show its fiscal rectitude by offering NO personal income tax cuts.
bemused @ 664
[Very touchy. Must remember to treat you more gently.]
Just a suggestion, but why don’t you try that with a few others. You might be amazed by the outcome.
Guytaur – about showtime
And yes, I’m aware that there should have been a question mark, not a full stop path the end of my first sentence.
K17
Labor should argue the case AGAINST tax cuts. There is a need to up the social wage – education, health, NDIS. Not offer more money to individuals who don’t need it.
[Re Labor’s Gonski funding announcement….Paula Matthewson (aka DragOnista) supports your contention re political strategy.]
I hate being on the same wavelength as Paula Matthewson, she makes PvO look intelligent and balanced, can’t stand her work. Probably very unfair of me but …
K17
Showtime has announced a deal with Stan. This means its moving from Foxtel and Presto to Stan.
There has to be good reason for Showtime to make such a move. Better service for customers thus better revenue. Showtime has calculated that Stan is giving better service and so will have more customers.
Stan uses the internet not HFC cable.
Douglas and M
Sadly I have already done all that. Mind you I have not restarted the PC. I use a PC not a Mac.
I have another odd thing that may be related but I now know how to fix it. When I restart my PC the sound in all applications disappears. I then go to the sound mixer button which indicates that it is ON. I click to mute, then click again and the sound reappears.
Maybe I will try that with the speller.
Not a good look for Albanese to be slagging off Grayndler’s Greens candidate Jim Casey, a local firefighter and FBEU unionist.
Albanese who likes to portray himself as a class warrior of the left had this to say about Casey, his name he dare not mention:
[“The Greens political party candidate who has been chosen in this electorate has spent more time in the international socialist organisation than he has in the Greens political party, and if if he was fair dinkum he’d run as an international socialist and see how many votes he got there,” Albanese said.
“It’s unfortunate that the Greens have been captured in this area and in NSW by people who have a history in the socialist party of Australia or the international socialists or the socialists workers party and want to use the Green banner to advance an agenda that’s about anything but the environment.”]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/01/27/albanese-grayndler-social_n_9093700.html
Amusing really on many levels, one being that until very recently the ALP was affiliated with Socialist International.
Even Albanese despite the public persona he likes to project of a warrior of the working class considers the ‘s’ word to be a ‘dirty’ word.
Slagging off a unionist who prefers to be a candidate for the Greens Party rather than for the ALP, a party supposedly the political ‘home’ of trade unions, isn’t a smart move – a move likely to turn more voters in G away from him than to him.
No luck
Pegasus @ 673
Paula Mathewson is a thoughtful centrist Liberal. But I disagree with her here. While Coalition disfunction would give voters a reason to ‘think about Labor’, it needs Labor to give voters a reason to actually vote for them. And this is the battle of ideas that will actually define the next election.
Labor has to argue the case for it to be elected. It is not enough for Liberal disunity, at least at the current level. Part of Labor’s problem re education has been that it has demurred when asked about its own Gonski commitment and looked like it was backing away from it. Now they have fully committed again we have a situation where one major party is now clear on where it stands, while the other major party is only clear on where it doesn’t stand, with its actual position obscured by a fog of platitudes and simplistic nostrums.
Now I’ve seen it all. A Green hack quoting a Liberal hack in order to attack Labor unjustifiably.
Pegasus, may I quote my comment from 7:56 this morning to provide a little equilibrium, as it appears your comment was lacking it:
‘ Well, I just listened to Marius Benson’s political wrap of the last 24 hours on Newsradio and he outlined the competing platforms of both political groupings very well I thought.
Basically he believes the election will be a contest of ideas. The Liberals and Nationals in one corner promising smaller government via defunding Health and Education and giving money back to taxpayers to pay for what they can afford themselves. Also for Corporates to get more money that they don’t deserve. Versus Labor who believes in a Progressive Tax system that funds social goods. Without having to increase the GST as the Coalition want to.
Benson also correctly identified where the money was going to come from to pay for Labor’s Gonski funding proposal and debunked the Liberal’s scare campaign around that.’
I guess at least by noting Pegasus’ comment @ 673 we can see why The Greens are closer to the Liberals in their thinking these days than Labor. Just rename yourselves The Yuppies Party guys!
Guytaur – does this mean that the MTM is going to improve copper adsl more than cable? Is cable becoming an NBN backwater?
A point made on the Drum yesterday.
Labor is setting the agenda. We are talking health and education not tax reform.
I merely posted link to PM’s link for WWP’s benefit. Doesn’t mean I endorse her or WWP’s argument.
I respect WWP’s authenticity in progressing his argument 🙂
TPOF@684
I didn’t realise here were so many humourless posters on PB.
Thank goodness for the few that are here.
Pegasus as 691
[Not a good look for Albanese to be slagging off Grayndler’s Greens candidate Jim Casey, a local firefighter and FBEU unionist.]
Not a good look to whom?
The Greens candidate (who Albanese did not identify by name) is the biggest single threat to Albanese holding the seat. And the Greens are pretty caustic about their opponents in seat brawls in their own right. Why should Greens candidates be protected species when they are seeking to poach Labor seats?
K17
I don’t know the answer to that but assume it must be so for an outfit like Showtime to move to Stan.
Stan is still not known to many Australians. They know of Foxtel and Netflix. Stan has been very much a you stumble across it or you know because you read tech sites.
I know a woman who has been doing backflips about the NDIS (her son is severely disabled) and she got a big surprise when I carefully explained to her that Bill Shorten is the father of NDIS in this country. I also explained to her that the Libs would, by hook or crook, kill it off. That didn’t seem to really compute. Isn’t it obvious now that the Libs are going to can it?
Pegasus
I have to say that a candidate such as Casey is probably not a particularly good one for those inner city latte sippers (basket weavers) of Balmain. Many are my friends so not really having a go at them. Against Albo it makes no difference, but when Albo finally does retire or move, and if the greens want to win the seat, they should choose a more electable type of candidate. They have run Hall Greenland in the past, and while I have a bit of a soft spot for the guy, from his Uni Labor Club days, he was always seen as a bit odd and fairly extreme. Mind you he EASILY outwitted Malcolm T.
[3AW Melbourne
3AW Melbourne – Verified account @3AW693
Miss Malcolm Turnbull’s first studio interview of the year?
You can listen back here http://bit.ly/1TqogI0
Embedded image
2:28 PM – 28 Jan 2016]
K17
Yes I think that a profile piece about Shorten’s role in the NDIS would be a great idea for Labor. It should be boradcast loud and long, because it is Shorten’s real claim to leadership.
DTT – Agree. I’m in Sydney (now Grayndler) and I have never seen a really electable green candidate, and I say that as someone who has voted green in the past.
I know this was linked earlier
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasury-secretary-john-fraser-australia-has-a-spending-and-a-revenue-problem-20160128-gmgj11.html
but it is incredibly rich for the Treasury Secretary (a known right wing ideologue) to complain how hard it is to now predict revenue. Wayne Swan was not given the same leeway of course. But the poor Liberals are in a different boat. What a load of self-serving garbage.
C@tmomma
[can see why The Greens are closer to the Liberals in their thinking these days than Labor.]
😀 Keep trying to convince yourself of that.
By the way, I did enjoy your ‘friendly’ characterisation the other night of my Greens local branch meeting and of myself.
Couldn’t be further from the truth, but good to see you have to resort to a fantasy to console yourself, though kudos for your creative writing.
That night the negative comments of the ALP came from new members who had thrown over their ALP membership and were, as is usual, invited to introduce themselves.
The rest of the meeting was not wasted on any “obsession” with the ALP but on Greens Party matters.
[I respect WWP’s authenticity in progressing his argument :-)]
Paula’s view makes it more likely I’m getting it wrong, but it isn’t conclusive 😛
DTT and K17
An Australian Story appearance with a disabled advocate who works in the sector praising him for his work would be just the thing.
However ABC doubt it will happen.
Paula Matthewson and WWP offer equally helpful strategic advice to the ALP.
Cash live presser now
Albanese is flailing about. It’s long past time for him to be replaced by a Green. He’s trying Joe McCarthy tactics against his Green opponent. I think that reveals him to be vacuous and cowardly.
Hi PBers and thanks to BK
Re strategy
If Labor listen to ‘strategists’ like McTernan
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/28/if-bill-shorten-wants-a-chance-of-winning-the-election-this-is-what-he-has-to-do
it’s no wonder they are struggling.
The best McTernan can come up with is
[Shorten has to find a way to wedge Turnbull, making him choose between his caucus and the country. The contestable space is values……..Equal marriage is emblematic here.]
OK – Well maybe to some – but equal marriage is not as significant an issue as the economy.
And then this:
[Or take the biggest, boldest wedge – the republic.]
You must be kidding.
Labor must go in strong on the economic mismanagement of the Coalition and on education and health funding.
Shorten has just made a major styatement on Gonski – this is good. Now he needs to hammer:
1) Economic mismanagement of this govt with blowout in the deficit and failure to address tax concessions for the big end of town.
2) Mismanagement of the NBN – the most expensive infrastructure fuckup since failure to implement rail guage standards in 1845 – and the hypocrisy in Turnbull’s ‘agile’ statements
having just degraged the most critical piece of infrastructure to achieve this.
3) Potential replacement of the effective tax on polluters – the carbon tax – with a big new tax – an increase in the GST.
4) Education and health funding
5) How Direct Action and Coalition climate policies are forcing increases in the price of power and holding back jobs and development
etc
The republic has little or no relevance to Labor’s electoral success in 2016.
daretotread,
Albanese will prevail so why doesn’t he just debate policy as Casey wants to?
His strident attacks do not reflect well on him and just feeds into the low opinion people generally have of polticians.
GrogsGamut: https://t.co/3Z2hPvhrXH https://t.co/YpPQ6i8ETl
There goes the usual LNP bribe your way to election victory. This time it will be a blame the poor and make out you are richer and can afford the cuts campaign.
degraged = degraded
Crikey has the sulks again.
[frankellyabc: NSW Liberal Education Minister nails his colours to the Gonski mast on @RNBreakfast]
Piccoli is actually a National. These days a distinction without a difference, I know.
Pegasus
I agree with you about Albanese attacking a unionist. Last thing a Labor person should be doing is attacking someone for being too left and a unionist with TURC and the legislation to curtail union rights coming.
Policy a different matter.
I really do find it laughable that as soon as the ALP announces Gonski funding the Libs response is that it will break the budget.
Just why do people fall for the line that a govt that has doubled debt and deficit while implementing no real economic policy of significance in its first term, that has leadership instability and is rife with disunity, and that opposed much of the known to be successful policy implemented during the GFC, actually knows anything about or is qualified to comment on Budget matters??
Yup, Gonski and NDIS will be challenging to fund and when they are in Govt, with the resources available to Govt they will have to fund them. Same same for any Govt. But, why should the ALP be called on to provide any detailed funding data now? The Libs never get pinged with that and if they do the MSM allows them to ignore it, make “promises” they know will be broken and let that slide as well.
Trog
I don’t like McTernan. However he is correct about the equal marriage being emblematic.
It goes to how the LNP operates and the public can see the waste of the Plebiscite.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Labor presser now.
imacca
Your point is why the LNP loses on Education and Health when they are the issues campaigned on.
Brilliant move by Labor to take control of the agenda
dtt @ 702 and 704
Two posts of yours that I’m happy to agree with. Especially re Shorten and the NDIS. Forging a coalition of disparate interests and actually getting the NDIS to the top of the national policy agenda was an heroic achievement.
guytaur
Cheers. Just makes Albanese seem the biggest hypocrite ever.
[ Especially re Shorten and the NDIS. ]
Shorten, by any objective measure, actually has a much better record of formulating and then implementing policy than the PM….and most of the Liberal front bench…combined.
Particuarly given the Libs have pretty much sat on their hands and played with themselves for their first term. 🙁
“…biggest hypocrite ever …” Why the hyperbole.
K17
Election year. Hyperbole comes with the territory