BludgerTrack quarterly, and other stories

Quarterly poll aggregate breakdowns, state polling from Essential Research, and extensive accounts of preselection friction emerging from the factional warfare engulfing the Liberal Party in New South Wales.

I have published a new seat of detailed state breakdowns from BludgerTrack, which points to next to no regional variation in the shift to the Coalition on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch, with the possible exception of it being particularly pronounced in Victoria.

Essential Research will resume its publication of weekly federal polling numbers next week – in the meantime, it has treated us to state voting intention results. These are aggregated from Essential’s polling from October through to December, with samples ranging from 797 in South Australia to 3205 in New South Wales, and follow on from a recent state polling onslaught from Newspoll, which you can read all about in the entries below this one. Essential’s results in New South Wales and Victoria aligned very closely with Newspoll, with the Coalition leading 56-44 in the former and Labor leading 53-47 in the latter. However, Labor was credited with a 54-46 lead in South Australia, compared with 51-49 in Newspoll, but was level with the Liberal National Party in Queensland, where Newspoll had Labor leading 52-48. The biggest disrepancy was from Western Australia, where Newspoll had Labor surging to a lead of 53-47, but Essential has the Liberal-National government with its nose in front, by 51-49. For more on the situation in Western Australia, I had a paywalled article in Crikey on Tuesday.

In preselection news, the finalisation of the redistribution process, together with the determination of an increasingly ascendant moderate faction to flex its muscles, is making life extremely interesting for the Liberal Party in New South Wales (as detailed in another of my paywalled articles in Crikey). As well as the threat posed to factional conservative Craig Kelly in Hughes, which was covered here last week, the following brush fires are breaking out, or threatening to:

• Most contentiously, moderates are talking up the prospect that Hume MP Angus Taylor will come under challenge from Russell Matheson, member for the neighbouring seat of Macarthur. The redistribution will transfer the Sydney fringe centre of Camden from Macarthur to Hume, and push Macarthur northwards into Labor-voting suburbs, cutting its margin from 11.3% to 3.3%. Camden is a power base of a local faction identified as the “southern cartel”, which includes Matheson and Wollondilly MP Jai Rowell. It had earlier been part of the Right, but recently shifted allegiance to the moderates, and its presence with Hume has weakened Taylor’s position, despite him having a considerably greater reputation as a rising talent than Matheson. There were suggestions that Taylor might react to such a challenge by joining the Nationals, but he rejected the notion yesterday. Even before talk of a challenge, Taylor had expressed his displeasure with the redistribution, which makes the electorate considerably less rural in character.

• Another member in the moderates’ sights is Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, a Senator and ideological warrior of the Right. Sarah Martin of The Australian reports that the moderates are “absolutely” confident they could see Fierravanti-Wells make way for Richard Shields, “a former deputy state director and head of government relations for the Insurance Council of Australia”.

• Should she choose not to retire, Bronwyn Bishop is set to face a challenge in Mackellar from Jason Falinski, a long-standing moderate operative who has worked for John Hewson and Malcolm Turnbull, and been state president of the Australian Republican Movement. However, Sarah Martin’s report in The Australian says state upper house MP Natasha McLaren-Jones might be another challenger, which is a bit hard to process given that her husband, Damien Jones, is Bishop’s chief-of-staff and has sometimes been mentioned as her favoured successor. Another potential candidate is said to be Jim Longley, who held the state seat of Pittwater from 1986 to 1996, and challenged Bishop for preselection unsuccessfully before the 2013 election.

• Also likely to face preselection challenges if they don’t retire are Philip Ruddock, in Berowra, and Senator Bill Heffernan. Sarah Martin reports that Heffernan is under pressure to make way for Hollie Hughes, the party’s country vice-president. Tony Abbott, on the other hand, is expected to recontest Warringah.

• Gilmore MP Ann Sudmalis faces a challenge from Grant Schultz, son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, but is “expected to survive”.

Meanwhile, south of the border:

• Royce Millar of The Age reports on a big field of potential contestants for Liberal preselection in the south-eastern Melbourne seat of Dunkley, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Bruce Billson. Included are Paul Peulich, mayor of Kingston and son of veteran state MP Inga Peulich; Donna Bauer, who held the marginal bayside seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014; Peter Angelico, founder of Dandenong steel bending company Kazed; Nathan Hersey, a member of Billson’s staff; Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor; Matt Berry, a former staffer to troublesome state Frankston MP Geoff Shaw; and Chris Crewther, who ran for the Nationals-held seat of Mallee in 2013 and now runs a consultancy in Frankston.

• The Victorian Liberal Party is sorting out a replacement for Senator Michael Ronaldson, who is quitting politics after being demoted to the back bench by Malcolm Turnbull, along with the order of its Senate ticket. Richard Willingham of Fairfax reports that candidates for the vacancy include James Paterson, deputy director of the Institute of Public Affairs, and Sean Armistead, a manager at Crown Casino and the Liberals’ unsuccessful candidate for Frankston at the 2014 state election. It appears that whoever gets the gig would have to contest a half-Senate election from the dicey number three position, since support is building for Jane Hume, a senior policy adviser for Australian Super who won preselection for the position last year, to be promoted to the top spot. The second position on the ticket is reserved for the Nationals, whose member is Bridget McKenzie.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,772 comments on “BludgerTrack quarterly, and other stories”

Comments Page 35 of 36
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  1. paaptsef

    [
    That tree hugging hippie Mary Whitehouse was most upset by Monty ]
    Our “Norwegian Blue” Tony Abbott has a connection with Mary Whitehouse . Would love to know if Tones was also “upset” by the movie.
    [A visit to the university by English morals campaigner Mary Whitehouse was cancelled in response to a mass protest where Abbott was physically attacked. Abbott had already joined Whitehouse, anti-abortion religious leaders and the Right to Life at a public rally in the city, where pie-throwing protestors including “anarchist feminists” interrupted their speeches]
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/father-of-the-year-how-abbotts-abortion-stance-rendered-ridicule-20120910-25o0g.html

  2. Steve

    Yes I agree, such a party would draw heavily on One Nation types and the UKIP agenda. However I think that in a party that Abbott and cronies would form, you must add a solid element of religious fundamentalism. In particualar it would attract Catholic church members and I think if you look at the likely joiners, about 80% would be praticing members of the Catholic Church, and with a very strong anti-gay agenda. Very much the old Santa Maria groupers, although perhaps more Opus Dei. I am thinking Barnaby, Abbott, Bernadi, Cormann, Andrews and that Hawke character from NSW. Probably the Nicholls/Santo Santoro faction in Qld.

    Should such a party form I would expect a small but still real defection of the extreme right of the ALP.

  3. Good Morning

    I see talk of a new party on the right is gaining momentum. Heard Tom Switzer on News Radio mention it.

    Meanwhile the sports scandals continue.

    GuardianAus: Tour Down Under stage one gets under way with riders facing oppressive heat https://t.co/nbMfiILsY9

    There was a reason it used to be illegal to bet on sport.

  5. The danger for the Right is that we will get the LNP extreme right.

    Nick Xenophon and Senate Cross benches there have been rumours of Jackie Lambie joining Senator X as moderate right.

    Labor party

    Greens.

    Out of that spectrum moderate liberals Turnbull represented before becoming PM will join either Labor or the Greens.
    This would give Labor and Greens the majority votes in any election.

    Such a nice thought 👿

  6. [ I see talk of a new party on the right is gaining momentum. Heard Tom Switzer on News Radio mention it. ]

    I reckon there will be much huffing and puffing, but no way are the Libs stupid enough to re-enact the ALP / DLP split.

    However, hype it up enough now and then when it doesn’t happen:

    spin it that MalPM the strong leader has brought everyone together, or

    when MalPM gets rolled by ScoMo after an election win, spin it that HE is the unifying figure behind the scenes able to keep everyone in the same tent.

  9. Australian elections will always be fought in the middle ground. Most parties that start up at the edges generally only have fleeting success. I would think any Liberal/National breakaway would end up going the same way.

  11. DWH

    Well its the right that is agitating for a new party as they do not accept the voters verdict of wanting moderates who will not trash Medicare Industrial Awards Renewable Energy and a proper Carbon Market.

    Until the Right accepts that I think we are going to see just such an outcome. See GOP for how that goes.

  13. Guytaur they can try afterall it’s a democracy. They just won’t be very successful and last. Most Aussies just aren’t all that extreme at either end.

  14. [ “It was also confirmed the company hasn’t made superannuation contributions on behalf of any employees since November – not just compulsory contributions but also voluntary ones workers themselves have made out of their own pay.” ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/clive-palmers-queensland-nickel-lacks-cash-to-pay-out-workers-awu-20160118-gm8r48.html

    Bad, very bad. Looks a bit like Clive has prioritised PUP over his employees and has ripped them off?? Not paying the compulsory super is bad enough, but not passing on the employees contributions is a different level of contempt altogether.

    I look forward to the odious Minister for Employment and Minister for Women making a strong statement on this. LoL!

  18. Imacca October was the last month superannuation contributions were due to be paid under legislation. That’s for any business that elects to pay quarterly as per ATO legislation. The next payment is due late January.

  21. I do not agree with TBA on his remarks as such on Monty Python but someone mentioned that Monty Python was written by a mob of lefties true but at least one of them Cleece has certainly changed his attitude in later years reminds me of the quote “He who is not a républicain at twenty compels one to doubt the generosity of his heart; but he who, after thirty, persists, compels one to doubt the soundness of his mind.” Churchill has a similar one as well.

  22. Steelydan

    Thats just right wing BS to make it sound irrational to support society over the economy.

    The right wants people to work for the economy not the other way round.

  23. “Republican” and “Liberal” have several different meanings, in different countries. Is Oz the only country where Liberal has taken on the opposite meaning?

  25. [ Imacca October was the last month superannuation contributions were due to be paid under legislation. That’s for any business that elects to pay quarterly as per ATO legislation. The next payment is due late January. ]

    Ahh….. Wasnt aware of that. An unfortunate timing thing maybe so not as bad as reported then. Thanks for that.

    Overall, still stinks to high heaven though that he’s dragged millions out of the company to fund his vanities and its the employees and taxpayer (through the Feds entitlements payout program) that will be left the losers.

  27. Imacca it’s still not good that any business hasn’t set aside sufficient cash to cover employee entitlements. Particularly employee own contributions.

    The problem is once an administrator gets appointed then any cash goes into a pool and is distributed according to defined preferences. Any secured creditors will make sure they get their chop.

  29. Cleese supports the Liberal Democrats, a party which came out of the British Liberal party (which introduced the welfare state) and the Social Democrats (who had split from Labour). Doesn’t sound like he’s moved very far politically at all.

  31. imacca/davidwh

    [Not paying the compulsory super is bad enough, but not passing on the employees contributions is a different level of contempt altogether.]

    If they can’t make the January payment of the employees contributions it should simply treated as theft.

  32. The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

    John Kenneth Galbraith

  35. http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/01/19/essential-r-e-s-p-e-c-t-sorely-lacking-for-women-in-the-workplace/
    [Essential: R-E-S-P-E-C-T sorely lacking for women in the workplace
    Cassidy Knowlton | Jan 19, 2016 12:43PM

    Most Australians think women are not as respected in many fields, today’s Essential Report has found.

    Women are not as well respected as men in many professions, today’s Essential Report has found.

    Those polled said men were more respected in building and construction, the military, politics, sport, finance and banking, law, medicine and journalism. Women are more respected in nursing, according to those polled. The only two professions where half of respondents or more said men and women were respected equally were teaching (50%) and TV presenting (52%). In journalism, 43% said men and women were equally respected, as compared to 37% who said men were more respected and 8% who said the same for women.

    ………………

    In politics, Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has dropped from highs at the end of last year, but that has not translated into support for Bill Shorten to lead the nation.

    A total of 51% of those polled approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister, down from a high of 56% in November and December last year. Even 42% of Labor voters approve of the Prime Minister, and just 10% of those who vote for the Coalition disapprove of his job performance.

    But Turnbull’s falling approval numbers are no cause for celebration for Labor. Just 27% of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader — a six-month nadir, and down a whopping 11 percentage points from a high of 38% in June last year. Exactly half of Labor voters (50%) approve of their leader, with 27% disapproving. Shorten has an 18% approval rating among Coalition voters, and a 65% disapproval rating among this group. Of those who vote Greens, 52% disapprove of Shorten’s performance, while 23% approve.

    On voting intention, the Coalition has lost one percentage point to 44% as compared to five weeks ago, with Labor holding steady of 35%. Greens have held on 10%, for a two-party preferred result of 51%-49% in favour of the Coalition. That compares to 52%-48% five weeks ago.]
    Full details are not yet up on the Essential site, but keep an eye on http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport

  36. LL – Thanks. Libs down to 51 – 49 and Turnbull’s rating drops 5 per cent (while everyone waits for Turnbull to actually do anything.

  37. [“But Turnbull’s falling approval numbers are no cause for celebration for Labor….”]

    Really? It’s turnbull’s numbers that really count, not the Opposition leader’s.

  40. David

    I hope you are right, but I feel that there has been a solid shift to the right over my lifetime, as also in the US and to an extent the UK. I think it is a bit of a comfortable mayth that aussies always steer centre. We have clearly a 10-15% mob of RW populists. We have a huge influx of migrants from countries from which democracy and certainly not centre type swinging is not the norm at all. Voting patterns of people from China, middle east,and mediterranean countries etc are really not settled or even known. The fact that we have ethnic stacks (both major parties) clearly indicates that some of the expectations of centrism/moderation are not justified by reality.

  41. dtt

    [We have clearly a 10-15% mob of RW populists..]

    Firstly, that doesn’t constitute a shift to the right. We’ve had RW populists around forever. My observations – based on election results – is that the figure for these is around 10%, and has been fairly consistently that for decades.

    [We have a huge influx of migrants from countries from which democracy and certainly not centre type swinging is not the norm at all. Voting patterns of people from China, middle east,and mediterranean countries etc are really not settled or even known. ]

    You’re trying to have it both ways here – they’re not centrist but we don’t know what their voting patterns are? Which is it?

    As for your inclusion of mediterranean countries, traditionally these have leaned left (to the point where Mirabella joining the Liberals was seen as worthy of note).

    [ The fact that we have ethnic stacks (both major parties) clearly indicates that some of the expectations of centrism/moderation are not justified by reality.]

    The fact we have ethnic stacks proves nothing about where politics is or is going.

  42. 51 to 49 and people are only just returning to normality after xmas. With the hit to the pocket because of medicare cuts and pensioners losing income, watch the libs spending the next six months trying to scrabble back up the opinion poll only to find that that their actions are coming back to bite them. The narrowing has begun and it’s all downhill for the libs.

    Going to get interesting from now on until the re-election of the ALP by disgruntled twice bitten voters.

    Tom.

  44. [ If they can’t make the January payment of the employees contributions it should simply treated as theft. ]

    It seems to be getting a bit “grey” as to what constitutes a company “stealing” from employees or customers. Given clive Palmers history of “fwark off and sue me you ungrateful bastard” behaviour, the nickel plant thing could get messier.

    The Dick Smith fallout is also pretty bad with the not honouring gift cards, warranties (have personal experience of that), and apparently not delivering stuff that that was bought online.

    The Woolies/Masters fallout will be worth keeping an eye on as well, although i’d expect workers entitlements will be covered by the larger group, or people redeployed if possible.

  46. From precedent in previous years, does anyone know if Essential’s 51-49 is based on:

    Dec 12/13 and Jan 16/17.

    Jan 9/10 and Jan 16/17.

    Just Jan 16/17.

  47. Scott – when Esential comes back after a break, its always just the new week in the first poll of the year. Next week will be the start of the rolling average of two weeks.

  48. imacca – Yep. Wollies have no choice with Masters but to cough up on they imperil their grocery operations.

    Clive and Dick Smith different and most employees will be stiffed.

  49. I think we’ll have to wait for some of the non-Morgan or Essential polls before we can really get a good idea of the state of play right now. I don’t really have much faith in the accuracy of either Morgan or Essential.

    The slight drops in Coalition support in both and Turnbull’s personal ratings in Essential are somewhat encouraging, but until we see more it could all easily just be statistical noise.

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