The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week records a strong move back to Labor, which partly reflects the Coalition’s soft Newspoll result this week. However, it’s also indicative of how sensitive the model is short-term fluctuations now that it’s using the start of the Turnbull era of year zero, and thus only has a small number of data points. The story on the primary vote is that the Greens have recovered some of the ground they lost over the previous weeks, with the Labor primary vote remaining steady. The difference all this makes to the seat projection is rather modest, with the Coalition dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Queensland. The leadership ratings from Newspoll give a further boost to Malcolm Turnbull’s already strong net approval rating, but the other indicators are essentially unchanged. Preferred prime minister and Turnbull’s net approval are still being determined through weighted averages of all polling since the leadership change, rather than trend measures.
What’s more:
• The meeting of the New South Wales Liberal Party’s state council on the weekend, chiefly noted for the heckling delivered to the Prime Minister, saw the demise of a proposal for all preselections to be conducted by plebiscites of party members, in place of the current system where the vote is divided between branch delegates and head office. This was despite just such a reform being advocated by a post-election review conducted by a panel headed by John Howard. However, a compromise resolution will see plebiscites conducted in one federal seat before next year’s election, two for the subsequent federal election due in 2019, and two for the next state election, also due in 2019.
• Tom McIlroy of the Canberra Times identifies Christina Hobbs, a United Nations World Food Program program officer, as a possible starter for the Greens’ Senate preselection in the Australian Capital Territory. However, the report also cites a party source saying its resources were likely to be concentrated elsewhere, particularly on “potentially difficult fights in Queensland, NSW and South Australia”.
Some of you on here are flogging a dead horse over Turnbull:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/more-love-in-the-air-at-parliament-since-malcolm-turnbull-elected-prime-minister-20151018-gkbybx.html
[I reckon Turnbull will plough on undeterred by the petty jibes and sanctimonious complaints of his moral in turpitude.]
He may well plough on, GG, but where will he plough?
gg
As BB opined, w shall wait and see where this lads
DIOG – Love the way you use the PM’s tax dodging to bash labor. Very interesting.
[So, unless the cunning strategy is to make Malcolm more smug and full of himself it’s a rather weak approach imho.]
Don’t discount how likely it is that will happen.
People are not going to vote Labor because Turnbull is a smug rich bastard. But they might vote Labor if he is seen as a smug rich bastard at the head of a party that is primarily concerned with making themselves smugger and richer.
GG
Try again.
As BB opined, we shall wait and see where this leads
[DIOG – Love the way you use the PM’s tax dodging to bash labor. Very interesting.]
So tell me; why didn’t Labor turn up to vote against the tax disclosure shield laws?
If you think Labor are genuine about this, I have a bridge to sell you.
MTBW,
Love is in the air!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNC0kIzM1Fo
TPOF
It sees strange to me that the ones praising Turnbull’s ability to stash away millions in a tax shelter, quite legally, don’t understand how it may still colour the reaction of voters in tax cut discussions. Even more so if the Coalition tries to protect the millionaires (which seems to be their present position).
[So tell me; why didn’t Labor turn up to vote against the tax disclosure shield laws?]
Because a division wasn’t called. There was no vote.
TPOF,
People will vote Labor because they have policies that interest them.
Why have they spent days trying to smear Turnbull rather than focus on policy?
MTBW @ 1951
We are all relieved, even pleased, that we no longer have a Prime Minister who is batshit crazy and that he has been replaced by someone who actually thinks that the country can be advanced through negotiating agreements with other parties. This is roughly how it was until the advent of Tony Abbott as leader of the Opposition. Yet another failing of the media was that it criticised the government of the day (Rudd and then Gillard) for failing to compromise with Abbott when Abbott’s idea of compromise was his way and only his way. Which was why Nauru and Manus were reopened. Everyone forgets that it was Abbott and Morrison who insisted on it against Labor’s judgement and against the advice of the Immigration Department.
But we still have key differences between the parties on which elections can be thought. I think of Turnbull as Australia’s Mitt Romney. Nice guy, well meaning, but out of touch. And believes that the only people who really count are those who are not the 47% or whatever the equivalent percentage of Australian leaners are out there.
DIOG – Labor stuffed up, that’s why. They opposed the Shield laws. I’m surprised you don’t recall that during the last parliament Labor passed legislation to stop profit shifting by multinationals and the libs came in and got rid of it.
But if Labor does nothing about this I’ll vote green. That’s simple.
So clarify for me: you think Labor should drop the whole Cayman Island’s issue do you?
Greensborough Growler
[
K!7,
As reported everwhere it was actually Labor who said Turnbull has done nothing wrong.]
I thought it was “nothing illegal” ?
GG @ 1961
[Why have they spent days trying to smear Turnbull rather than focus on policy?]
I have answered the underlying issue in that question a number of times on this site over the last few days – as have a number of others. If you have not understood what I’ve posted up to now, no further attempt to answer will be of any use to you.
poroti,
The pedants are revolting.
Greensborough Growler
You are being stupid and naive:
The problem with “Nothing wrong” is the majority of the rich can do this sort of shit every single day of the week, while the rest of us have to abide by the laws that were made by the rich and powerful.
Coalition Party and Labor are to blame for not closing the tax loopholes and make profit shifting illegal.
Greensborough Growler
It is legalised tax dodging for the wealthy.
zoidy,
Spoken like the juvenile delinquent you are.
Your envy is noted, though.
Dio
“”If they had, they would have shown up to vote against shielding companies from tax disclosure laws.””
That was a tactical move, for later action!.
“”I should add that I’m not a fan of Cayman Islands schemes. It’s just a way of not paying your fair share of tax.””
When GG admits this, he might shut UP!.
TPOF,
You know it’s a dud strategy.
You just don’t want to talk about it any more.
I agree with GG on the Turnbull issue and Labor would be absolutley stupid to run the issue in Parliament.
They will look silly and apart from smear what will they have?
This is not a game of gotcha.
Since Turnbull took over the polls show they are doing very well thank you and it will be very interesting to see how QT goes.
Labor needs to run on it’s strengths rather than taking on the man.
The more I think about the Cayman Island issue the less I see it as an advantage as I am yet to see any evidence that Turnbull hasn’t been paying taxes.
Its the kind of issue that will cement the public’s view of him and for many he will be seen as a good money manager and others will see him as a tax dodger.
The people who see him as a tax dodger were more than likely always ALP voters to begin with whilst the Liberal base or aligned can say he is a good money manager.
@GG/1969
Your stupidness is noted.
Maybe because you have vested interests I dunno.
MTBW
[ http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/more-love-in-the-air-at-parliament-since-malcolm-turnbull-elected-prime-minister-20151018-gkbybx.html ]
Love is in the air? So we can expect a turnaround on gay marriage then?
Zoidy
The problem with talking about the rich is by the definition many on the left use, then most Australians are rich, this is seen by most as just rubbish, this helps to support the view that the Liberals are better economic managers despite all the evidence against.
Greensborough Growler
Stop the “envy” bullshit. Whatever he is worth has never been a problem before. It is his use of a notorious tax haven. There are many places he could have chosen , including Australia but he went for the Caymans.
As Barak Obama said of Ugland House where Turnbull has a number of investments. It is either the world’s largest building or the world’s biggest scam. What a good look for our PM. Oh , right, Barak is envious of Turnbull.
P1
I hope I am reading you correctly but I believe both leaders support gay marriage – am I correct?
@MB/1973
LOL “Good Money Manager” cutting out Disability Pensions?
@MB/1976
Liberals were never good at economic management.
Mutual funds are increasingly used to diversify investment portfolios so whilst the Turnbulls chose to invest in a high end fund, there are funds for all levels of investing.
The biggest tax dodge in this country is homeowners who have seen their net worth increase by Hundreds of thousands of dollars by simply living in their own homes over the last couple of years.
No tax is paid on this windfall gain or will be paid when the property is sold.
Why aren’t people out investing this newly acquired wealth in something mere productive than real estate inflation. Of course it’s all legal. However, given the age and profile of the PB commentariat, this is likely to go unheeded.
Guardian Australia @GuardianAus 2m2 minutes ago
Quadriplegic New Zealander reportedly deported by Australia http://trib.al/yNhZleT
zoidy,
You are stupid and naïve.
Zoidy
Most Australians see DSP as a rort, otherwise the government wouldn’t be able to get away with paying such a low level.
Pegasus@1833
If so, then that is even more reason to implement it.
On this I am agnostic. 😀
@MB/1981
That is another problem, Turnbull using his wealth to invest in a high end Fund, while using not the same smart ideas to increase out growth in Australia.
@GG/1982
Perhaps Labor and Coalition Party do something about Housing Affordability then ?
MTBW
[ I hope I am reading you correctly but I believe both leaders support gay marriage – am I correct? ]
Both leaders may, but only one party does.
GG
That’s a bit harsh, there are a number of PB people who openly support introducing a form of land tax beyond the one that already exists.
@MB/1985
Yes because they watch shows like the Australian Current Affair and believe everything that Scott Morrison tells them.
Zoidy
That isn’t an issue, if someone in Turnbull’s position wants to invest in such a fund then that is fine, I would be more concerned if we discovered that he and Lucy hadn’t been paying taxes. We have not seen any such evidence.
Zoidy
I’m pleased you realised that was who I was referring too.
Greensborough Growler@1930
Done nothing illegal.
A critical difference, as has been pointed out to you previously, but which you seem very reluctant to acknowledge.
Once again, the argument is not about whether people have been following the law, but whether the tax laws they have been following are acceptable.
That is a political and values argument, not a technical issue of legality.
I have no more info on this than is in the public domain, but I seriously doubt Labor are being naive idiots on this, and increasingly suspect that they actually know something we don’t (yet), and are setting up Turnbull and the 0.1% for a big hit on this issue.
Why is it that pointing out that Turnbull is rich and has money in the Cayman Islands a smear? I don’t think anyone, least of all Malcolm, says it is not true. Its like trying to smear Bill Shorten by saying he was in a union.
In addition to incorrect or obfuscating use the term agnostic as TPOF and I have highlighted, Frydenberg also said the case for the ADani mine going ahead was a strong moral one. Very Abbott-like language on both counts.
[ Diogenes
Posted Sunday, October 18, 2015 at 3:27 pm | Permalink
So tell me; why didn’t Labor turn up to vote against the tax disclosure shield laws? ]
Its not quite as straightforward as that – the tories got lucky and this type of thing happens from time to time – it happened to the tories on one of the climate change bills back in rudd’s day.
[ A vote on the bill had not been expected on Thursday but the government capitalised on the absence of independent Senator Nick Xenophon, who was due to speak to the bill but was fronting a press conference at the time.
When Labor did not have a speaker ready in his place, the government was able to pass the bill on the voices without crossbench support being tested in a formal division.
The government had originally argued that the exemption was needed to protect business owners from kidnapping and extortion if their wealth was made public but it dropped that defence after Fairfax Media revealed that security agencies, including the Australian Federal Police, had not even been consulted on whether any threat existed.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wealthy-business-owners-get-tax-shield-as-pm-talks-up-have-a-go-society-20151015-gka899.html#ixzz3otNjbkVZ
@MB/1991
You are ignoring the problem, the problem is that they are paying less taxes in the cayman islands than they are paying in Australia.
That is the entire argument, and the point of tax avoidance/profit shifting.
Many of the large companies that support via Lobbying or via TPP etc, support this arrangement.
mexicanbeemer
[yet to see any evidence that Turnbull hasn’t been paying taxes.]
We will never know if he pays a single cent or a gazillion in tax. Even if he was paying above the odds tax (as if) he chose to put the money in a notorious tax haven. People will reach their own conclusions.
.
Just Me,
As I said, the pedants are revolting.
You can play word games to your hearts content. The reality is the voters don’t give a continental and Labor is wasting precious time on a dead parrot issue.
Hey, but fill your boots if that is what gets you rolling.
Zoidy
As I understand it, such investments are taxed when the money is repatriated to Australia. It is the holding company based in the Caymans that isn’t taxed.
If the Caymans is silly enough to allow itself to be a tax haven then that is a matter for them.