Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

The only new federal poll for this week suggests the early undecided are breaking in the Turnbull government’s favour.

The only poll of Malcolm Turnbull’s second week is the regular two-week rolling average from Essential Research. Clearly this week’s sample produced a good result for the Coalition, as Essential published its “one week only” result last week to show a 50-50 debut for the Turnbull government, and adding this week’s result to that one has produced a Coalition lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 44%, Labor is down two to 35%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Further findings:

• Sixty-three per cent want the election held next year, whereas 21% think the government should go early.

• Forty-one per cent say Tony Abbott should resign from parliament (although it’s not specified if this means right now or at the end of the term), 25% would prefer that he stay on the back bench, and only 16% believe he should be given a ministry.

• Twenty-six per cent rate the state of the economy as good versus 32% for poor, and 34% think it heading in the right direction versus 39% for the wrong direction – both of which are much as they were when these questions were last posed in March.

• Since July 2013, respondents have become somewhat more likely to think people on high incomes would be better off under a Liberal government, and much more likely to think people who send their children to private school would. Conversely, small business, farmers, average working people, pensioners, single parents and the unemployed are now perceived as much better off under Labor. The rating for middle-income earners was 5% in favour of the Liberals two years ago, but is now 6% in favour of Labor.

Further on the polling front, The Australian has today published its first geographic and demographic breakdowns since the takeover of Newspoll by Galaxy, of purely historical interest though the results may be, given that they are compiled from the entire polling period between July and September.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

461 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Not much “consumer confidence” around may way – Turnbull inspired or not.

    Many marginal outfits in our local market closed up and the only places doing any good are those flogging food and coffee.

    The boom is definitely kaput in Perth.

  3. Bid for seat on UN Human Right’s Council is a great way to highlight our asylum seeker policies and how nobody (but possibly Malta????) has the same cruel policies.

    Even Fox News is ridiculing Republican candidates suggesting mandatory detention.

  4. Millennial:

    Yes, but the point I was making is that if you think the voters are dumb when they vote LNP you must think they are dumb when the self-same voters vote ALP.

    Otherwise you are claiming their IQs chop and change every 3 years.

  5. Boy, Bob Carr totally shot the bid for a UN Security Council Seat out of the air. Said running for a seat in 15 years’ time shows no confidence in ourselves. He was almost laughing at it.

  6. The rorte not just in Australia. …. from the NYT

    Congress designed temporary work visa programs, the idea was to bring in foreigners with specialized, hard-to-find skills who would help American companies grow, creating jobs to expand the economy. Now, though, some companies are bringing in workers on those visas to help move jobs out of the country

  9. Action less man:

    Craig Wallace ‏@CraigWtweets 2h2 hours ago

    It remains our strong view that disability deserves a named Minister along with restored Commissioner & ABC Ramp Up. Voice is critical.

  10. alias

    firstly, Labor used their first week of Question Time with Malcolm in the chair to get Malcolm to state openly that he will be supporting a number of positions everyone who barracked for him thought he would change.

    Malcolm might still change these positions, but if he does, he will now be able to be portrayed as breaking promises. If he doesn’t, then he’s breaking faith with his supporters.

    So Labor has set him up nicely.

    Secondly, Shorten released a major policy on universities last week. It has met the fate of any major policy announced by any Opposition in a non election period; a few commentators noted it favourably, but basically it went unnoticed.

    Because that’s the reality. Most people switch off outside of election campaigns (and some remain switched off during them). You have to be really outrageously bad as a government to get people’s attention…and crazy brave as an Opposition. Crazy brave Oppositions rarely get elected.

  12. ModLib

    Are you joking, or did you not understand the principal sentiment I was expressing, or are you shit stirring.

    My post did not allude to any party, implicitly or explicitly.

    BTW has Truffles still got you conned.

  13. zoomster @ 410: Mr Turnbull is getting the honeymoon that Mr Abbott never got or deserved. Basically, lots of people, including swinging voters, want him to succeed, not because they necessarily want to see a win for the coalition and a defeat for the ALP, but because they want to see the country being well-governed. (There’s probably also a subset, which includes me, who want him to succeed so that the uglies in the Liberal Party will be substantially marginalised for a good few years, to the greater benefit of the nation.)

    And when people want you to succeed, that’s what they will think they are seeing. The ALP and Mr Shorten have nothing to gain from going in now with all guns blazing, because that will basically just be telling voters that they are wrong, which never goes down well. (That, incidentally, was one of the mistakes that Mr Turnbull made when he was first LOTO: he kept saying how bad Mr Rudd and his government were, when people didn’t want to hear that.)

    The trick is to chip away with subtlety, wait until public opinion starts to swing around, then go in harder. Mr Shorten had the great advantage with Mr Abbott that from quite early on, his criticisms weren’t fighting public opinion, but chanelling it. But you only get that sort of thing once in a lifetime.

  18. Has police guarding them:

    Matthew Rimmer ‏@DrRimmer 8m8 minutes ago

    #ReleasetheText: the AG #Brandis certainly did not want to share his copy of the #TPP. @akaWACA

  19. I suppose Mod Lib sees the inconsistency and hypocrisy of lightweight Bishop pushing for another go on the Security Council in 2028.

    No doubt she’ll declare it (soon!!!!)

    Couple of years ago Bishop led the criticism that Labor was wasting time, energy and taxpayers’ funds chasing the seat on the SC she so proudly sat in last year.

    She so does like the opportunity to purchase glad rags in NY.

  22. psyclaw

    now, now, we all know it’s only hypocrisy if Labor or Labor supporters do it.

    When it’s the Liberals, they’ve just changed their minds. Or they’re going to, if they can find the time.

  27. Latika on Facebook:

    [
    Latika M Bourke
    5 mins ·
    Curious and curiouser. Eric Abetz emailed supporters claiming ‘hundreds’ of Liberal party members had quit the party because Malcolm Turnbull is now the leader.

    But then the Tasmanian Liberals fact-checked the Senator and it turns out he may have been telling a few]

    If Turnbull prevails and looks a dead cert to lead the coalition to victory at the next election, will dead wood hangers on like Abetz resign rather than serve a second term under a Turnbull govt with an increased authority and legitimacy?

  28. GG

    [CARLTON has announced former Adelaide coach Neil Craig as its new director of coaching.]

    May he bring all the success to Carlton that he brought to the Crows and Essendon.

  30. [“Another day, another neoliberal bloodbath for our economy. Thank you, Bob Hawke, Paul Keating, and John Howard for bequeathing us this high unemployment, high suicide, high mental illness, and low innovation economy. We are indebted to you.”]

    What the fark are you on about?

    Get off the Dole and get a Job mate.. it will be good for your mental health

  31. [360
    Nicholas

    Neoliberalism is not only a theory]

    ….really, there’s no such theory. But it does make a handy tin whistle for the Green-Pink, self-styled left to use to draw attention to themselves.

  32. [“avidwh
    Posted Wednesday, September 30, 2015 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    No today way an up day Boerwar.”]

    Some days are Up Days, some days are Down Days. Then there are Flat Days.

    Occassionally we have UP-UP Days but these don’t make the news very much.

    But a DOWN-DOWN Day… well.. that is end of times sort of day, well covered by the media and spruiked by those who know no better. Only for the next day to be a nice big UP-UP Day and making Day Traders quite a pretty penny indeed.

  33. As a real supported of free-speech… not the fake as shit left version where they only believe in free speech if it’s people who agree with them… I find this decision attrocious:
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/30/anti-abortion-campaigner-denied-visa-australia-troy-newman

    This man has committed no crime. His calls for executions for doctors is in the context of them being tried by a court of law and applying the death penalty which is legal in the U.S.

    He has not incited violence. He has not incited law breaking. The ruling is rubbish and more disturbingly somehow the Australian Government controls domestic flights within the U.S

    As a real freedom of speecher I am appalled.

  34. Those who think that Turnbott is the human face of Liberalism will soon discover that he is pure elitism…that he is dangerous through and through.

    He does want to attack workers’ penalty rates
    He does want to dismantle the idea of the standard working week
    He does want to import low-wage labour from our trading and investment counter-parts
    He does want to dismantle the essential elements of the social safety net

    He does not believe that all who work in this country should be and will remain free and equal.

    Working people and the organs of their expression – unions and Labor – have a great task ahead of us.

  35. 424

    Considering the relative price of putting people of Mars and Security Council seats, especially in relation to Australia`s economy, our alliance with America and the possibility that the first Australian on Mars may be a woman, I consider your statement inaccurate.

  36. [430
    TrueBlueAussie

    What the fark are you on about?

    Get off the Dole and get a Job mate.. it will be good for your mental health]

    …as one troll said to the other…

  38. Earlier this year I visited Israel, to see what it was really like there. Took a day trip to the West Bank, and the final stop was Bethlehem. Manger Square at the Church of the Nativity were nice, the separation wall, not so much…

    Took this photo there

    . http://t.co/G2oADFtKRy

  39. Troy Newman should be allowed in on condition what he says remains confidential to whoever wants to listen to him live and he goes to a Chris Brown concert

  40. Speaking of good days on the ASX it’s interesting to note that the ASX peak level was in November 2007. Now ASX levels have little to do with government and PM performance but the date is interesting nonetheless.

  42. It would be interesting to see whether there is a relationship between party in government and ASX performance.

    Could be a primary or secondary factor, of course, (i.e. either stocks go up when one party is in power or one party gets power when stocks are up)……but there might be ways to tease that out.

  44. Hapless @ 442

    I think there is a correlation. The conservatives totally screw things up and the progressives are left holding the can and the responsibility for cleaning up.

    The GFC was a George W Bush special. Obama had the job of cleaning it up in the face of incredibly self-serving idiotic fake economic trickle down absolutism from the Tea Party Pugs.

  45. TrueBlueAussie@433

    As a real supported of free-speech… not the fake as shit left version where they only believe in free speech if it’s people who agree with them… I find this decision attrocious:
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/30/anti-abortion-campaigner-denied-visa-australia-troy-newman

    This man has committed no crime. His calls for executions for doctors is in the context of them being tried by a court of law and applying the death penalty which is legal in the U.S.

    He has not incited violence. He has not incited law breaking. The ruling is rubbish and more disturbingly somehow the Australian Government controls domestic flights within the U.S

    As a real freedom of speecher I am appalled.

    Would you be equally appalled if a radical Islamist preacher who campaigned for the law to impose the death penalty on all who blaspheme against the prophet, and who called all Christians and atheists murderers, was denied a visa to come here and preach his particular brand of irrational hate?

    Let’s suppose further that the Islamist had known close organisational ties to two people who had carried out terrorist bombings, and was suspected of (though denying) connection to a terrorist who had killed someone, with that terrorist claiming to have met him. Still want the Islamist let in the country?

    Troy Newman can have all the “free speech” he likes back where he comes from – for better or for worse. We’re not violating any free speech by refusing to let his like into the country, he can even babble to those Australians who want to read him on the internet if he must. For more light reading see http://www.msmagazine.com/spring2010/lonewolf.asp

  46. briefly

    Its more a mindset towards government as in less government, less regulation but I do question why some are so obsessed by it, over at the guardian nearly every business or economic article is taken over by people obsessing over it.

  47. [I think there is a correlation.]

    As Mega George highlighted a few years ago, voters ‘trust’ the coalition to governing in good times when economic circumstances transcend the reach of govt, but in bad times vote in a Labor govt to steer the ship through murky waters.

  48. [TPOF
    …Hapless @ 442

    I think there is a correlation. The conservatives totally screw things up and the progressives are left holding the can and the responsibility for cleaning up.]

    Someone could probably see whether there was a temporal relationship evident in the dataset…although too many confounders there to make a certain proclamation, you could probably have a very good go at making an educated guess!

    Bags not me.

    Bye bye……beauty sleep reached the top of my to do list.

  50. TPOF #444
    [The GFC was a George W Bush special. Obama had the job of cleaning it up in the face of incredibly self-serving idiotic fake economic trickle down absolutism from the Tea Party Pugs.]

    Not that I feel especially warranted to defend the Bush Republicans, but tha’s a bit unfair to put the blame of the GFC entirely on Gerge W. Bush.

    Though his administration allowed mistakes to be made in hindsight; like pursuing large tax cuts disapproationately targetting the wealthiest Americans, the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to record lows, and taking no action in restraining the banking or housing sector; these actions didn’t single-handely break the world economy.

    Indeed, for the FC to be a GFC, it had to be a worldwide effort. The reason why the GFC swept the world so quickly and severely was because many governments (mostly Western) had deregulated and/or privatized their financial markets, and relaxed their tariffs and import fees.

    Deregulation allowed certain financial systems to indebt themselves in ridiculously unsafe housing investments, which turned into toxic assets by way of an overabundance of supply and an extremely high rate of default; causing all but few housing investments worthless, and thus the American financial system collapsed and for credit to freeze.

    In theory, the above actions would be ‘good’ for the world’s economy, since decreasing regulation would allow businesses to function more efficiently and allowed more capital to flow in and flow easier. Unfortunately, deregulation also meant that more capital could flow out easier, creating a world where the GFC was inevitable.

    The collapse of the American financial system was just the catalyst for most Western financial systems made vulnerable by a more-intertwined global economy. But it wasn’t Bush’s administration who deregulated the financial and housing sector, which allowed the conditions for the GFC to occur. That honour goes to the Clinton administration.

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