The Australian today carries the first state Newspoll for Queensland since the election, and the first since Newspoll’s takeover by Galaxy. It’s the Palaszczuk government’s best poll result so far, putting Labor’s primary vote at 41% (37.5% at the election) and the Liberal National Party’s at 38% (41.3%) – respectively highest and lowest of any poll since the election – with the Greens on 9% (8.4% at the election). The headline two-party figure is 53-47 compared with 51.1-48.9, but this is based on preference flows derived from multiple past elections. If preferences flowed to Labor as strongly as they did at the January election, these primary votes would translate to around 55-45. Annastacia Palaszczuk opens her Newspoll account as Premier with an approval rating of 53% and disapproval on 33%, while Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg is respectively on 34% and 43%. Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred premier is 49-28. The poll was aggregated from the Newspoll automated phone and online polling conducted through August and September, with a sample of 1465.
[The poll was aggregated from the Newspoll automated phone and online polling conducted through August and September, with a sample of 1465.]
Polling is getting harder to carry out, it seems…taking longer, high non-response/refuse rates, demographic holes…
I’ve updated my “Strange Times In Queensland Polling” piece:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/strange-times-in-queensland-polling.html
…though I don’t say much more about this particular poll than William has above.
briefly@1
These things are true but not the cause of the two-month sample period; Newspoll have long used two or three months’ data for state polls taken away from election times.
This poll tells us two things:
1. Contrary to the Media Narrative of the last few months, the Palaszczuk Government is experiencing (at least nominally) a honeymoon.
2. Installing Malcolm Turnbull as PM seems to have no impact on the voting intentions of QLDers at state level.
*at least in theory, since state polls are rare when not in an election year.
This poll was conducted over a period of two months, so I don’t think your point two is an issue.
Wiliam Bowe #6
Whoops, didn’t see that. Thanks, William, and I’ll retract that point till further notice.
The Queensland public service is much happier with a thoughtful government.
The previous government knew it was doomed and scrambled as many eggs as they could as fast as possible.
Given that billy gordon was cleared of all charges in the past few days, I would expect a higher labor lead in the next quarter.
But other than that I really hope she backs down on the proposed lock out laws. That is their only bad policy. Other than that they handed down a good first budget that was fiscally responsible.
More to the point, the LNP cannot be competitive again so long as they have Seeney, springborg, langbroek, bleijie, Nicholls, etc are at the forefront of any election campaign. The last government was deeply hated by the community due to their policies, it is a miscalculation for them to just lay that blame to the personal dissaproval towards newman.
The LNP made a grave error following the last election by going back to the past and electing tried and failed leaders. They will be doomed to a long period in opposition until they change that.
I can’t fathom what possessed the LNP to install Springborg as leader yet again. It should be pretty obvious by now that he is not the electoral gold they continually seem to think he is. Yes, he is reasonably articulate and easy on the eye as far as LNP pollies go, but he has the amazing ability to come across as a miserable whinger any time he is interviewed. And his advancing age means they probably can’t even do any ads where he’s not wearing a shirt anymore.
I look forward to seeing him lose his fourth election in 2018.
It’s already happening, LNP are looking to dump Lawrence Springborg as leader after only eight months.
“The results increase pressure on Mr Springborg’s leadership at a time when key LNP members are moving against him.
There has been an internal revolt brewing against the LNP leadership team for about a month, with the rebels supported by some senior members of the party organisation. A coup was suggested for early next year, but that’s now likely to be brought forward, even though there’s no clear challenger.
Former treasurer Tim Nicholls is seen as Mr Springborg’s most likely successor, though second-term MP Tim Mander’s name is being put forward as an outside contender or a possible deputy. Nanango MP Deb Frecklington and former agriculture minister John McVeigh are also being touted as potential deputies.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/newspoll-small-target-strategy-a-big-winner-for-palaszczuk/story-e6frgczx-1227546478609?sv=db4db11ebd7edd53b1476bf4d64a62f4
Tim Nicholls is really aristocratic. He won’t go down well with the average middle class voter.
https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/648360400086417408
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Since September has pretty much finished, here’s our tracking for Qld state politics #qldpol
2:55 PM – 28 Sep 2015]
Open the tweet to see the chart. It his Union’s own poll tracking, not the public polls.
LNP QLD are attacking the premier while she is AFK.
Pretty desperate LNP.
“The last time that I took us to a state election in 2009, I received five per cent more of the primary vote than Annastacia Palaszczuk did at the last state election leading the Labor Party,” he said.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/springborg-fends-off-lnp-spill-speculation-20150928-gjwlcx.html
Lawrence Springborg is getting desperate to hold on to his leadership. He is now clinging to his primary vote argument.
How many seats did Springborg win in Brisbane in the 2009 state election?
six seats out of the 30 seats in Brisbane.
What was his two party preferred vote percentage compared to Anastasia Palaszczuk in 2015?
49.1% compared to Palaszczuk’s 51.1%
How many seats extra seats did he win compared to Anastasia Palaszczuk in 2009?
9 seats compared to Anastasia Palaszczuk 35.
How many elections have you contested compared to Anastasia Palaszczuk?
3 elections compared to Anastasia Palaszczuk 1.
How many seats did you win in total compared to Anastasia Palaszczuk in 2009?
34 seats compared to Anastasia Palaszczuk 44 seats.
My money would be on Tim Mander to replace Springborg. Not that he’s good or anything, but Nicholls was too close to Newman and Mander emerged as a serious contender during the last leadership vote.
As for Anna P – last year I thought the only chance of a Labor win was if she was replaced, but she has grown into the role despite her ‘rabbit in the headlights’ look and unsure soundbites. With their slender margin of power, Labor have been a small target government (unlike the ideological rampage of the last government) and as a result are looking quite steady. IMO.
It’s not that Anna Whatsername is doing a good job, it’s that once again we have atrocious leadership by the Queensland LNP.
It makes me so sad it almost makes me want to join politics and school these jokers
Sometimes you don’t realise how bad a government is until you get a good one. Well done Annastacia.
Labor are hardly talking up the leadership tension. I get the feeling Labor view Lawrence Springborg like Tony Abbott, they would prefer to keep him leader then see him replaced.