The only poll of Malcolm Turnbull’s second week is the regular two-week rolling average from Essential Research. Clearly this week’s sample produced a good result for the Coalition, as Essential published its “one week only” result last week to show a 50-50 debut for the Turnbull government, and adding this week’s result to that one has produced a Coalition lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 44%, Labor is down two to 35%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Further findings:
• Sixty-three per cent want the election held next year, whereas 21% think the government should go early.
• Forty-one per cent say Tony Abbott should resign from parliament (although it’s not specified if this means right now or at the end of the term), 25% would prefer that he stay on the back bench, and only 16% believe he should be given a ministry.
• Twenty-six per cent rate the state of the economy as good versus 32% for poor, and 34% think it heading in the right direction versus 39% for the wrong direction – both of which are much as they were when these questions were last posed in March.
• Since July 2013, respondents have become somewhat more likely to think people on high incomes would be better off under a Liberal government, and much more likely to think people who send their children to private school would. Conversely, small business, farmers, average working people, pensioners, single parents and the unemployed are now perceived as much better off under Labor. The rating for middle-income earners was 5% in favour of the Liberals two years ago, but is now 6% in favour of Labor.
Further on the polling front, The Australian has today published its first geographic and demographic breakdowns since the takeover of Newspoll by Galaxy, of purely historical interest though the results may be, given that they are compiled from the entire polling period between July and September.
A recent state-based example re FOI….
7 August 2015: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-07/labor-blocks-bill-to-remove-alcoa-foi-exemption/6679604
[Victorian politicians have clashed over a bill to remove Alcoa Australia’s freedom of information (FOI) exemption.
The State Government fears the change could stunt investment in Portland in the state’s south-west.
The Greens introduced a bill on Wednesday night to remove Alcoa’s FOI exemption and open up the rehabilitation of its Anglesea mine and power station site to public scrutiny.
Labor blocked the legislation in the Lower House.
Greens’ MP Ellen Sandell said she was worried about secrecy.]
Another day, another neoliberal bloodbath for our economy. Thank you, Bob Hawke, Paul Keating, and John Howard for bequeathing us this high unemployment, high suicide, high mental illness, and low innovation economy. We are indebted to you.
Nicholas
You and your neoliberalism obsession.
Unemployment was high in the 1970s – the economy was less open than it is today
high suicide, high mental illness – Hardly a new issue, post world war one, about 20% of the returned troops were classed as shell shocked, many more suffered in silence.
Mental illness has always been with us but for many years was seen as a weaken rather than a real problem.
Suicide is again, not a new concept.
Please get over blaming everything on an economic theory.
Erica has had a fi of the vapours. The total Liberals dropping out and joining in Tassie evens out at less than 10.
Almost enough to get you to vote Greens .
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/30/the-rise-and-rise-of-barangaroo-how-a-monster-development-on-sydney-harbour-just-kept-on-getting-bigger#comment-60481364
Did the economy have a bloodbath today?
I had not noticed.
No today way an up day Boerwar.
DavidWH
Not sure where the bottom is but I still think there is room for further falls.
MB while there is uncertainty around China the market will continue to be volatile.
Neoliberalism is not only a theory. It is the reality of how our economy is organized. Currency-issuing governments have adopted voluntary constraints on their spending BEYOND normal parliamentary processes. This has been done for ideological reasons, and to suit the financial interests of a small percentage of the population. It has shaped our society because gullible, feckless and economically illiterate leaders have allowed it to happen. It wasn’t done by “the market”, portrayed by neoliberal advocates as as a rarefied, abstract entity imbued with special powers of awesomeness and insight. It’s because people like Bob Hawke, Paul Keating, and John Howard allowed it to happen. Every government since then has gone along with it.
And no, the fiscal response to the Global Financial Crisis did not slay neoliberal orthodoxy as Kevin Rudd claimed in his turgid essay in The Monthly. It speaks volumes about the recklessness and stupidity of our political class that they will only countenance government management of aggregate demand in a severe crisis. For decades this was rightly the role of the currency-issuing government at ALL times. Only the currency-issuing government can close the output gap – that is, the gap between what the economy is capable of producing at current prices and current levels of productivity, and the amount of total spending required to buy all that output.
Nichloas
Yes it is just a theory, its a theory that as you say believes in less government spending and regulation as it believes in the market and private sector over government.
Countries like Australia have a mixed economy which is part government and part private, this is different than what a neoliberal aspires to see.
The reason why governments follow a mixed economy is for the most part it is the best currently known economic system, it provides people with the opportunity to get ahead and at the same time provides a safety net for those who need it.
Davidwh
Yesterday (I think) you wrote WTTE that despite partisanship, over the years both major parties between them have brought in a range of good social, education, health etc policies.
I know that Labor brought in pensions, compulsory superannuation, universal health care, NDIS, Gonski, NBN, fault free divorce n Family Court, legal aid, to name a few. As well it is Labor who over decades has been the party to support public education for many decades.
Would you be able to provide an equivalent list of the Coalition’s record over the decades, or withdraw your claim which I think is very much hyperbowl-ic.
Perhaps
[Volkswagen did not say how the planned refit would make cars with the “cheat” software comply with regulations, or how this might affect vehicles’ mileage or efficiency, which are important considerations for customers. It said it would submit the details to Germany’s KBA watchdog next month.]
This will become a very interesting issue as the issue unfolds. It is not likely that fuel efficiency will be unaffected which brings forward the issue of misrepresentation at the offer of sale of the vehicles.
Where is Bill Shorten?
He should be blitzing the media, unveiling policy after policy -grabbing the attention away from the new Turnbull government.
I suspect his strategy is to sit quietly and hope Turnbull is going to make mistakes, then hope to win the election by default as he was on track to do with Abbott.
Not a good plan. Turnbull is defining his government with every passing day, cementing his position as a highly credible, articulate, likeable PM. People are warming to him, relieved the Abbott era is over.
Shorten needs to act fast to fix his profile or he is doomed.
[I suspect his strategy is to sit quietly and hope Turnbull is going to make mistakes, then hope to win the election by default as he was on track to do with Abbott.]
I’ve got news for you, that’s exactly how it works. If Turnbull performs well he will win. If he doesn’t he will lose ie governments win or lose elections, not oppositions.
Alan Kohler @AlanKohler 3m3 minutes ago
Haven’t seen any “$30B surge in stocks” headlines today, after yesterday’s “$56B wiped off share market” numbers.
BK
Mileage ” offers” are very vague, lots of small print.
Temp , weather , driving conditions, traffic……
I’d put the house on buying VW shares, it’s an overblown scandal & you can bet most other manufactures tickle their software as well.
Toyota’s & GM’s cover up on ignition switch problems which cost lives was by far more significant.
Guardian Australia @GuardianAus 8m8 minutes ago
Australia is the clear loser from China’s economic woes, warns S&P http://trib.al/6LaLok3
Shorten is on holiday. A break before the next big session.
Discussion on The Drum about the Security Council position. The Abbott government has cut most of the scholarships offered to African nations in return for their votes. Bob Carr says that short sighted as having possible leaders attending Australian institutions for 2 years would be beneficial in the future.
Also, what about the broken promise, when JulieB is saying what great guys we are.
zoidlord
Given that there are 256 stock trading days per year on the NYSE & that average yearly growth in shares is below 10% there is about 246 days of useless trading a year.
Why the press covers the stock casino is a mystery.
Just one step up on greyhound racing.
There are no real surprises or issues with the Chinese economy, yes it is slowing but that was the stated government policy.
sceptic
Its a bit more than a casino but I do share your bemusement at how the media cover the market, falling markets don’t just equal losses.
Bill Shorten has a young family, and he is enjoying a holiday with them at Palm Cove, Cairns.
Probably spending some time contemplating the strategy and tactics required to whittle away at Turnbull’s dead cat bounce in the polls.
sprocket
I agree that a period away from the daily grind is the best way of getting a new look at things. Bill need it.
We all need holidays but this is precisely the wrong time for Shorten to put his feet up. With every passing day, Turnbull is growing in stature as PM. I don’t say that as a fan, I say it as an observer. And don’t expect him to make dumb Godwin Grech style mistakes. He learnt from this bitter experience as Opposition leader. He is being highly consultative, reflective, sensible.
A dead cat bounce in polls? Going by my observation, nothing could be further from the truth. Turnbull has sucked up all the dismay and embarrassment the nation suffered having Abbott as PM. Shorten was betting that dismay and embarrassment was his to gorge on at the next election but it’s gone. It’s Malcolm’s.
With school holidays, grand final weeks in NRL and AFL I do not think too many people give a rats about politics this week.
Shorten is taking a break which I think is a good idea. The Libs are doing ok on their own with arguments with the AMA and penalty rates raising coming to the surface for anyone out there listening.
Why should Shorten charge around like a dervish this week and waste his time and effort ?
Plenty of opportunity coming with CHAFTA to be debated next sitting week just one issue bubbling along. There will be plenty to keep labor occupied.
Cheers.
I get what you mean Doyley. But think about it. What do lots of people talk about when they get together for grand final BBQs? Or go to the beach with their friends?
Yes they talk about big events that have captured the public consciousness – like Turnbull seizing the top job. And they start to process what it all means; what they really think about it; what it might mean for their vote next year.
Shorten is allowing the narrative that is already firmly in place – that he is a bit of a no-hoper, lacking in ideas and policies, lacking in gravitas and authority – he is allowing all that to set like concrete in the public mind.
Plenty of BBQ conversations will amount to an early reckoning of how the political scene now sits, with the dust of the Turnbull coup somewhat settled.
And where’s Bill?
Shorten should stay quite and let them back and let them back-flip and f#ck up.
[Australia will face headwinds in its fresh bids for key United Nations positions because of deep foreign aid cuts and treatment of asylum-seekers, human rights groups and Labor have warned.
Foreign Minister Julie Bishop announced on Wednesday that Australia would seek another term on the United Nations Security Council for the period 2029 to 2030 as well as a seat on the Human Rights Council for 2018 to 2020.
But Marc Purcell, executive director of the Australian Council for International Development – the nation’s umbrella aid peak body – said $11 billion in aid cuts under the Coalition meant Australia’s international reputation had suffered.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/un-security-council-bid-will-be-hampered-by-aid-cuts-say-rights-groups-labor-20150930-gjyazh.html#ixzz3nD4zRQSV
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook
Was someone opining that Abetz is a tosser? Exhibit A, Your Honour.
[Dumped cabinet minister Eric Abetz has emailed Liberal Party members saying he understands why they would feel “disenfranchised” by the demotions of conservatives following Tony Abbott’s ousting as prime minister.
In a letter sent to members at lunchtime Wednesday, Senator Abetz also expressed “disappointment” at what he said were a “hundreds of resignations” from the Liberal Party since Malcolm Turnbull was reinstated as leader.
But Senator Abetz’s claim of “hundreds” of resignations was immediately disputed by the President of the Tasmanian Liberals who said only 7 members had quit and that had been outweighed by 8 new applications to join.
]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/eric-abetz-says-he-understands-why-liberals-feel-disenfranchised-by-malcolm-turnbulls-election-20150930-gjy1wh.html#ixzz3nD4TMNki
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
People don’t just resign from the Liberal Party or at least not in Victoria, the party doesn’t give its members a card or something, besides the yearly fee there is nothing more to the membership process.
Shorten doesn’t need to change his schedule, the ball is in the government’s court and as others have said this week for most people is a politics free zone.
BK
Regarding VW ……. As a Passat diesel owner I keep in touch with prices of such cars.
I can see that the effect of the poor VW publicity has already filtered to Australia.
Just saw a new 2015 complianced Passat diesel (130Kw Highline TDI) online for $ 38.8K driveaway price, and double warranty ie 6 years / 200K.
This is very cheap for a marque that was just under $50K driveaway when I bought mine with the usual 3 year warranty.
Prices have been slowly reducing in recent years but they are really low right now. I suspect sales are well down this month since the scandal took off.
Alias
I appreciate your concern, you are right to be concerned, and we heartily welcome and agree with your concern.
Keep being concerned.
alias
From my experience most BBQ conversations will be about the footy, family and friends, most wont mention politics.
You’re a comic genius Sprocket
alias
Are you saying Shorten should be more like Tony Abbott?
Certainly not Roger Miller
Good Everoonies Bludgers
Turnboost showing up in consumer confidence across the states of Australia
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6481-turnbull-effect-consumer-confidence-september-28-2015-201509280205
Out in the real world the news is footy and footy (choose your code)
The political story of the day is Abtez tipping a bucket.
Shorten picked a good week to be on holiday
First Aboriginal person to be made a Federal Minister.
Another great decision by Turnbull, I know of Mr Wyatt and he is a great choice.
Think it was last night that one of the commercial TVs featured a focus group of Penrith swing voters (Lindsey/Lindsay???? …. seat of Abbott’s fave, the sexy one).
It is sufficient to say here what a motlley crew they were, in demeanour, intellect and understanding of politics and the electoral system.
Needless to say it is unlikely that most of them would see PB as being written in a different language were they to lurk here. None of the issues canvassed around here were even vaguely on the table during their discussions.
If it is the case that swingers such as these determine our government, based on the types of judgements expressed on the show, then we really do have a superficial democracy.
BBQ conversations, surely price of realestate is hot topic at a Sydney BBQ
#394
2nd last para should be “likely” and not “unlikley”
psyclaw – VW.
How the cars will perform after being ‘fixed’ is a big question.
George Monbiot
“There may be flowing water on Mars. But is there intelligent life on Earth?”
[In the past four decades, the world has lost 50% of its vertebrate wildlife. But across the latter half of this period, there has been a steep decline in media coverage. In 2014, according to a study at Cardiff University, there were as many news stories broadcast by the BBC and ITV about Madeleine McCann (who went missing in 2007) as there were about the entire range of environmental issues.
Think of what would change if we valued terrestrial water as much as we value the possibility of water on Mars. Only 3% of the water on this planet is fresh; and of that, two-thirds is frozen. Yet we lay waste to the accessible portion.]
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/29/water-mars-intelligent-life-earth-nasa
psyclaw:
The goo Burghers of Lindsay have voted ALP more often than LNP.
Are you questioning their intelligence when they choose ALP as well?
@Happiness/393
Considering nothing has been done about Aborigines in the first place?