The first opinion poll of the Malcolm Turnbull era is a ReachTEL survey of 3278 respondents conducted for the Seven Network last night, and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, which is at the milder end of what I would have expected from the Turnbull bounce. It compares with leads to Labor of 53-47 in the last two polls under Tony Abbott. The primary votes are Coalition 43.3% (up 3.0%), Labor 35.9% (down 1.6%) and Greens 11.9% (down 1.5%). However, Malcolm Turnbull records a clear 61.9-38.1 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Shorten had consistently strong leads over Tony Abbott in this particular series – of 57.9-42.1 at the most recent poll on August 28. Shorten’s rating on the five-point satisfaction scale has also taken a hit, with his combined good plus very good rating down 4.6% to 18.9%, satisfactory steady on 32.5%, and poor plus very poor up 4.6% to 48.7%. Respondents were asked to rate “the performance of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister” rather than Malcolm Turnbull, and it found little change in his ratings at 27.8% for very good or good, 18.8% for satisfactory, and 53.4% for poor or very poor.
Also today, Roy Morgan unloaded its final tranche of polling conducted over the weekend, departing from its normal routine of accumulating two weekends of polling before publishing a combined a result. This poll also does not feature the usual SMS component, consisting purely of face-to-face polling, for a sample of 826 compared with its usual 3000-plus. Labor’s primary vote was up a point on the previous Morgan poll to 36.5%, with the Coalition down 1.5% to 35%, and the Greens down half-a-point to a still-imposing 16%. Labor’s two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences blew out from 55-45 to 57-43, and rose from 55.5-44.5 to 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate on the sidebar has been updated with the latest Essential and Morgan results to produce a concluding result for Tony Abbott’s prime ministership. This records a 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred compared with last week, and credits Labor with single gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Western Australia. There were, however, no new results on the leadership ratings.
Also of note: the Australian Electoral Commission published draft boundaries on Friday for a redistribution of the Australian Capital Territory’s two seats. This is chiefly notable for proposing that the electorate of Fraser, held for Labor by Andrew Leigh, be renamed Fenner, in honour of virologist Professor Frank Fenner. The rationale is that the name Fraser should be freed up for use in the next redistribution in Victoria, in honour of the late Malcolm Fraser. More substantively, the redistribution proposes the transfer of the city centre and the southern parts of Turner and Braddon immediately to the north, together with Reid and Campbell to the east. This involves the transfer of around 10,000 voters from Fraser to Canberra (which is held for Labor by Gai Brodtmann), leaving Labor’s two-party margin in Fraser unchanged at 12.6%, while increasing the Canberra margin from 7.0% to 7.4%.
[ In ecclesiastical terms, Julie Bishop has been defrocked.
She did it herself, in the swift, strategic way she turfed her boss Tony Abbott out of office. And looking at her interviews since, she knows it.
Just last week, the brand Julie Bishop was blue-chip.
…Julie Bishop played kingmaker for a day, but it’s been an expensive exercise. In the process, she’s trashed her brand.
If the Liberal party wanted her to be a prime minister she would make a brilliant prime minister but she’s not the sort to carry a knife in her backpack,” her sister Dr Patricia Bishop told me.
“She doesn’t stab people in the back. She believes the duty of the deputy is to support the leader.” ]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/that-thinking-feeling/twist-of-the-knife-reveals-real-julie-bishop-20150915-gjnjgg.html#ixzz3lyywaken
Abbott could be appointed High Commissioner to Nauru and PNG.
[Fairfax Media has learned that James Camilleri, a member of the moderates, has claimed the hard-right’s Jakov “Jay” Miljak grappled with him after a fiery debate over female quotas in the party.]
Bahahahaaaaaaa!
[900
daretotread
wait until Turnbull does something to irritate]
Er does back-flipping on his previous positions on marriage equality and Direct Action not count?
Where is Abbott? Has he gone into hiding in a bunker?
victoria
The official line seems to be that he’s spending time with ‘the family’ and Margie is doing the packing!!
Terri Butler is amazing. Fantastic choice by Labor, hope to see more like her in future.
In The Drum, one weird moment came when Anne Henderson suggested that Abbott could be sent to replace Beazley as Ambassador to America. Haigh was horrified, but Anne protested “But Obama absolutely loves him.” Where do they get these ideas…
dave:
Thought that article was facile rubbish of the same variety that was peddled about Gillard.
Pretty pathetic.
Young tony abbott’s – keeping tradition going –
[ Young Liberal meeting boils over as verbal clashes turn physical on night of leadership spill]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/young-liberals-meeting-boils-over-as-verbal-clashes-turn-physical-on-night-of-leadership-spill-20150917-gjotc7.html#ixzz3lz2jODYF
lizzie
[Anne protested “But Obama absolutely loves him.”]
Obama would be absolutely shocked by that comment.
dtt @ 900
Interestingly, this is what the Liberal opposition did to Rudd from soon after he was elected in 2007. They kept criticising him for doing nothing but call committees and inquiries and summits when it was totally reasonable for him to do so in order that government policy be evidence-based.
As it turned out, those criticisms which originally seemed unbased really hit home after Abbott’s ascension and Copenhagen, when the centrepiece of the government, the ETS, collapsed and there was nothing to replace it. That, of course, was unfair because of the totally huge and unexpected impact of the GFC. But they had positioned themselves against what appeared to be known weaknesses of Rudd and laid them on thick – especially Abbott.
Now every leader has weaknesses that can be targeted. The strength of any leader is to know those weaknesses and manage them so they do not become fatal and also work on their strengths, so that the weaknesses are quite acceptable to the electorate. Hawke managed that better than any PM I ever saw.
But Turnbull needs to understand his weaknesses. He has enough trouble as it is trying to manage two critical but conflicting issues – party unity and the expectations of a much more modern leadership. If he doesn’t, he can’t manage these conflicting these demands and will not be able to convince the public otherwise.
confessions@909
Fess – it had a lot of turd polishing in it.
But mesma is stuck with the backstabber moniker no matter.
She is damaged goods, again.
victoria – I will admit I am greatly disappointed that the Victorian ALP is not being more proactive in tightening rules around campaign spending, banning donations, and strengthening IBAC.
From today’s Crikey:
[Greens leader Richard Di Natale’s decision to strip Lee Rhiannon and Janet Rice of some portfolios to give to new senator Robert Simms has upset some in the party, particularly because it was announced under the cover of the change of prime minister. At the same time, Di Natale decided to give the schools portfolio to Christine Milne’s replacement, Nick McKim. This move is also likely to raise eyebrows, given McKim’s controversial work as education minister in Lara Giddings’ former Labor government in Tasmania.
On Tuesday, as the rest of the country spent hours wondering where our soon-to-be-ex-PM Tony Abbott was after he lost the Liberal leadership ballot to Malcolm Turnbull, the Greens held their first party room meeting since the arrival of Penny Wright’s replacement, Robert Simms. At this meeting, it was decided that new senators Simms and McKim would each get three portfolios.
Simms received LGBTI and marriage equality from Rice; tertiary, technical and further education; and water and the Murray-Darling Basin (the latter two from Rhiannon). McKim received innovation, competition, and small business; schools; and attorney-general (the latter two were held by Penny Wright).
There was a post-party room briefing held in Parliament on Tuesday, but there was no official announcement from the Greens on the policy change. ]
The women lose out again to the blokes. Pretty poor stuff.
Would you believe that I just heard on the radio an ad for the “China EXPORT Trade Agreement”?
fess at 909
Yes. I read part of the article and thought it was disappearing up the rear end of the journo’s self-esteem. I did not follow it there.
that stopturnbull.com site I tweeted asking when will a name be put to it. @stopturnbull has come back and told hr/she will soon as soon as he/she is ready 😀
PhoenixGreen@907
I watched Q&A last night and agree.
dave:
We’ll see how it pans out esp in terms of the leaking, but I reckon most people will figure JBishop did the nation a favour in ridding us of an Abbott PMship.
bemused
Ditto!
mari – I wonder if it’s Peta or Tony? 😀
dave
I hold no brief for Mesma, but I do think that that attack is unfair. She has been poorly treated by Abbott and Credlin, yet played the loyal deputy right up until she could see that Abbott was sinking, then she made the right political move by telling him he should think about going. It was Turnbull who declared the challenge (and there’s nothing wrong with that, either).
[dave:
Thought that article was facile rubbish of the same variety that was peddled about Gillard.
Pretty pathetic.]
But, it’s not coming from some lefty. Madonna King might not be rabid, but she’s an old News Ltd Lib no matter her time in the ABC and now with Fairfax. It’s more evidence of the disunity in the right. There is a lot of anger on the right and they are looking to take a swing at those they feel have betrayed them.
[Labor is preparing for a worse-than-expected result in Saturday’s byelection as Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and his team search for ways to tackle a resurgent government under Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Labor MPs and party insiders have all but written off winning the West Australian seat of Canning and do not expect the 10 per cent swing away from the government that had been predicted when Tony Abbott was leader.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/alp-lowers-hopes-for-canning-as-bill-shorten-resets-for-battle-with-turnbull-20150917-gjp9s1.html#ixzz3lz5fif99
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
confessions@920
Maybe – but she still stabbed her leader – little doubt the RWNJ’s will not let her forget it.
What goes around etc.
Jimmy Doyle 922
My money is on either one of the Hendersons, Gerald or Ann :devil:
lizzie
I regard mesma as a very nasty piece of work who like many tories sinks in the boot with relish – but its suppose to be a different story when she cops some back.
Fortunately she has now damaged herself in her own party.
ratsak:
Yes I saw who wrote it, but that doesn’t mean there’s any merit in her arguments. Nor does the presence of in-fighting among the Liberals give her arguments merit.
I also think her criticisms of JBishop are entirely unfair given she’s willingly served as deputy under 3 (now 4) leaders, and that it’s her job as deputy to inform her leader when things are beyond breaking point.
It isn’t JBishop’s fault that Abbott kept on a megalomaniac control freak as CoS when he should’ve sacked her.
More insider press gallery crap:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbull-and-his-nicer-suit-leave-labor-in-the-awkward-corner-20150917-gjow46.html
Still, if Turnbull thinks he outwitted Labor go for it. He can be even more arrogant than that. There is a whole world out there ready to be malsplained.
Re Gorkay King @892:
As far as is known, Turnbull supports the whole Abbott-Hockey program. Part of trashing Turnbull’s ‘moderate’ image should include probing and exposing his views on the economy.
I linked loonpond earlier. I know it is a Bolt article, but it details Abbott leaving a voice mail to her on Saturday asking her about challenge by Turnbull. She did not get back to Abbott for 24 hours. Turns out she was with Turnbull. I guess this is why people like Madonna King reckon she has been a disloyal deputy
http://loonpond.blogspot.com.au
ratsak @ 924 and confessions at 929
[There is a lot of anger on the right and they are looking to take a swing at those they feel have betrayed them.]
Madonna King wrote the biography of Joe Hockey that commenced the long decline of his political prospects. There would be no love for Julie Bishop there, given the events of the last few days. I think her judgement may have been affected. But then again, maybe not.
Oops her being JBishop
[Part of trashing Turnbull’s ‘moderate’ image should include probing and exposing his views on the economy.]
This is where Turnbull is probably most vulnerable, his undeniable fealty to the plutocracy. It is fertile and legitimate ground for Labor and the Greens to take him on from day one.
Just Me
Then accusations of class warfare? You know how Libs love using that.
So Abbott & Newman both blaming the media for their demise. They don’t & probably won’t ever get it.
The media & the public now have the means to react quickly, that is the main change, get used to it.
TPOF:
As I said earlier I reckon most voters would be thanking JBishop for getting rid of Abbott. You can practically feel the sigh of relief from around the country that he’s gone.
The pictures of Margie clearing out Kirribilli House seemed to show her doing it all on her own. No friends or daughters to help and no sign of hubby Tony.
booleanbach
Where are the pics?
Jimmy
[Er does back-flipping on his previous positions on marriage equality and Direct Action not count?]
NO!! That is my whole bloody point.
SSM is a major issue to 5% 80% of whom are Green or ALP. it is a 1000th priority for everyone else. That is not to say they do not support it, just that it is a yawn.
The direct action “he said, she said debate” is too tricky and technical for ordinary people to follow. They WERE unhappy about the Carbon tax and Abbott thoroughly scared them. Direct action seems a nice soft way to appease their conscience.
Off topic as an old style environmental regulator like it or not you could use direct action to achieve the same or better outcome as an ETS if you really wanted to. In Victoria you could achieve it by a including CO2 as a class 1 air quality indicator. This would have the same impact as a carbon tax. Obviously it is state specific.
victoria
[it details Abbott leaving a voice mail to her on Saturday asking her about challenge by Turnbull. She did not get back to Abbott for 24 hours. ]
I assume the source for this can only be Abbott – which means the whiteanting has begun…
Abbott as US ambassador? Okay, gets him away from Canberra, but Syriously?
“Hey Barry buddy, where’s the button? Can I see it? Can I… touch it?”
dtt
absolutely the only reason that Turnbull got the gig was his popularity with voters.
His popularity with voters is based on his having a more progressive stance on ssm, climate change etc than his colleagues.
Thus his popularity will fade if he can’t deliver on these issues.
It doesn’t matter how important or unimportant the issues are. What matters is that they are the basis for Turnbull’s popularity with voters. If his walking away from these issues dents his popularity, he loses the only card he has to play within the Liberal party.
A Turnbull who is unpopular with voters has no value whatsoever to the Liberals.
If I had been watching on my desktop I may have caught some but I was watching one of those old fashioned TV screens that some old fashioned people still have around the house.
[I assume the source for this can only be Abbott – which means the whiteanting has begun…]
Or someone Abbott told, or someone who might have been in his office at the time, possibly his Chief of Staff.
Andrew Elder was right in the beginning, and he’s right in the end.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/playing-canberra-games.html
DTT
[ SSM is a major issue to 5% 80% of whom are Green or ALP. it is a 1000th priority for everyone else. That is not to say they do not support it, just that it is a yawn.
The direct action “he said, she said debate” is too tricky and technical for ordinary people to follow. They WERE unhappy about the Carbon tax and Abbott thoroughly scared them. Direct action seems a nice soft way to appease their conscience. ]
Disagree with both of these. Yes, SSM itself is a second order issue – but it has become a first order issue because Turnbull supports it but he is unable to get his party to agree.
However, Climate Change is really a first order issue, but again Turnbull has made life even more difficult for himself by going on record calling Direct Action “bullshit”. But again he is unable to get his party to agree.
Both of these show Turnbull to be a hollow leader. It makes you wonder why anyone would bother voting for him at all.
TPOF
they’d have to be pretty close – they knew about the initial call and the time frame for the lack of response.
A wise MP does not leak directly, but gets a minion to do it…
[944
Zoomster
absolutely the only reason that Turnbull got the gig was his popularity with voters.
His popularity with voters is based on his having a more progressive stance on ssm, climate change etc than his colleagues.
Thus his popularity will fade if he can’t deliver on these issues.
It doesn’t matter how important or unimportant the issues are. What matters is that they are the basis for Turnbull’s popularity with voters. If his walking away from these issues dents his popularity, he loses the only card he has to play within the Liberal party.
A Turnbull who is unpopular with voters has no value whatsoever to the Liberals.]
This! I don’t know why this is so difficult to understand.