ReachTEL: 50-50

Malcolm Turnbull’s first opinion poll as Prime Minister records a strong bounce in the Coalition’s favour, without going all the way.

The first opinion poll of the Malcolm Turnbull era is a ReachTEL survey of 3278 respondents conducted for the Seven Network last night, and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, which is at the milder end of what I would have expected from the Turnbull bounce. It compares with leads to Labor of 53-47 in the last two polls under Tony Abbott. The primary votes are Coalition 43.3% (up 3.0%), Labor 35.9% (down 1.6%) and Greens 11.9% (down 1.5%). However, Malcolm Turnbull records a clear 61.9-38.1 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Shorten had consistently strong leads over Tony Abbott in this particular series – of 57.9-42.1 at the most recent poll on August 28. Shorten’s rating on the five-point satisfaction scale has also taken a hit, with his combined good plus very good rating down 4.6% to 18.9%, satisfactory steady on 32.5%, and poor plus very poor up 4.6% to 48.7%. Respondents were asked to rate “the performance of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister” rather than Malcolm Turnbull, and it found little change in his ratings at 27.8% for very good or good, 18.8% for satisfactory, and 53.4% for poor or very poor.

Also today, Roy Morgan unloaded its final tranche of polling conducted over the weekend, departing from its normal routine of accumulating two weekends of polling before publishing a combined a result. This poll also does not feature the usual SMS component, consisting purely of face-to-face polling, for a sample of 826 compared with its usual 3000-plus. Labor’s primary vote was up a point on the previous Morgan poll to 36.5%, with the Coalition down 1.5% to 35%, and the Greens down half-a-point to a still-imposing 16%. Labor’s two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences blew out from 55-45 to 57-43, and rose from 55.5-44.5 to 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate on the sidebar has been updated with the latest Essential and Morgan results to produce a concluding result for Tony Abbott’s prime ministership. This records a 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred compared with last week, and credits Labor with single gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Western Australia. There were, however, no new results on the leadership ratings.

Also of note: the Australian Electoral Commission published draft boundaries on Friday for a redistribution of the Australian Capital Territory’s two seats. This is chiefly notable for proposing that the electorate of Fraser, held for Labor by Andrew Leigh, be renamed Fenner, in honour of virologist Professor Frank Fenner. The rationale is that the name Fraser should be freed up for use in the next redistribution in Victoria, in honour of the late Malcolm Fraser. More substantively, the redistribution proposes the transfer of the city centre and the southern parts of Turner and Braddon immediately to the north, together with Reid and Campbell to the east. This involves the transfer of around 10,000 voters from Fraser to Canberra (which is held for Labor by Gai Brodtmann), leaving Labor’s two-party margin in Fraser unchanged at 12.6%, while increasing the Canberra margin from 7.0% to 7.4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,089 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50”

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  1. [I assume the source for this can only be Abbott]

    It could be Credlin, assuming her control freakery extended to complete over-ownership of Abbott’s phone.

  2. Zoomster

    I do not think that Turnbull’s popularity is because of his moderate views.

    People like him because he is intelligent, appears competent, is a good communicator, can be amusing and these days appears sane.

    It is NOT about his policies as such. He just needs to appear sane, not to actively offend international partners or offer to shirt-front anyone and he will be seen as OK.

    People on the left may like him because of moderate views but for the ordinary population it is more because he appears to be in control and not about to shoot anyone sometime soon.

  3. daretotread – Direct Action is not difficult to explain: In order for DA to achieve substantive cuts in emissions, it requires vast amounts of money. There, explained in one sentence.

  4. From this article:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/empty-chair-tony-abbotts-question-time-absence-a-gift-to-colleagues-20150917-gjp4la.html

    [By not appearing at question time, Abbott has done his colleagues a favour. He helped to minimise the image of a divided government, fulfilling his pledge “to make this change as easy as I can”. ]

    That might have been the effect of Abbott’s no-show, but the sullen ungraciousness of his farewell speech shows that this would have been an unintended consequence.

  5. ChAFTA is going to become one of the fissures that separates the Parties in coming months.

    Granting control of an indentured labour force to Chinese firms will do three things:

    – it will chew up job opportunities for Australian workers
    – it will drive down wages and conditions
    – it will place Australian firms at a competitive disadvantage

    This issue is about the design of the future economy – about whether we will reinstate an oppressive, neo-colonial labour market or a modern economy based on the freedom and equality of all who live and work here.

    Turnbott says this:

    [“The Labor Party have been doing their best, whether it is in Canning or anywhere else in Australia, to frustrate the China-Australia free trade agreement. They know that that agreement offers the prospect of thousands and thousands of jobs right across the board in every industry,” Mr Turnbull said in question time.

    “The Labor Party wants to stand in the way and say, ‘Stop the future. No! Go back. You should be afraid.’ The Labor Party thinks they can frighten people.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/alp-lowers-hopes-for-canning-as-bill-shorten-resets-for-battle-with-turnbull-20150917-gjp9s1.html#ixzz3lzCXwXUw
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  6. Bludgers, if you want the opinion of an interested outsider:
    Nothing Turnbull says this week counts. Cabinet leaks? Not his cabinet. Dunb-arse policies? Not his policies. And the best line of attack is that he has a woman problem? Who told you that? The Minister for Women?
    I’ll look at the cabinet and listen for policy changes. For me, global warming is the story of the century. If I think Turnbull has an achievable plan to tackle that, I’ll give the Libs my second preference.

  7. Jimmy

    Not if you include Obama style regulation!!!!!

    As I said I am an old style regulation person and think if you treated CO2 EXACTLY as you treated CO, you could in Victoria have a carbon tax but nicely named as a licence fee. Yummy!!!!!

    I only KNOW it works in Victoria because they have a polluter pays system (not actively called that but it is). It would not work like that in Qld. I have not checked all the other states.

  8. [ratsak:

    Yes I saw who wrote it, but that doesn’t mean there’s any merit in her arguments. Nor does the presence of in-fighting among the Liberals give her arguments merit.]

    I’m not saying the argument has any merit. I’m saying the fact she’s written it is illustrative of the deep division in camp Liberal. When the right and their media backers (and even moderates and their backers like Hockey and King) are going after Bishop and Morrison then it’s going to be ugly for a while yet. (although a goodish result in Canning as now looks likely will help settle things for a while)

  9. Oh, chortle – after weeks of ‘Labor running dead in Canning’, now the ABC is talking about Labor and the unions spending millions there…

  10. dtt@960:
    There have been many such regulations and taxes in the past including the ones to get rid of the CFCs knocking off all the Ozone in the upper atmosphere and if memory serves me right it was Australia’s suggestion of a tax on SO2, taken up enthusiastically by the US and others, that helped reduce significantly the acid rain killing all the conifers and other trees around the world.

  11. Lizzie

    Yes, I agree. Mesma played the loyal deputy. As a drama queen, and vitriolic, she played that role for sure. In the dramatic sense.

    Confessions

    Mesma willingly served as loyal deputy to 4 leaders

    In fact Mesma schemed, with her VIP bundle of WA MP votes to become deputy 4 times. She is no paragon of benevolence. She is a scheming, hard nosed, vitriolic and cold hearted manipulator.
    She’s a (self) overrated player in the power stakes.

    Her trip as shadow treasurer showed her true ability.

  12. [By not appearing at question time, Abbott has done his colleagues a favour. He helped to minimise the image of a divided government, fulfilling his pledge “to make this change as easy as I can”.]

    I think that’s a bit of a stretch. He’s appeared childish and ungracious and self-indulgent, all of which give fuel for those who want to put the vengeance angle out there.

  13. zoomster@840

    Malcolm was returned to the leadership for precisely the same reason Rudd was – because he is popular with the average voter.

    Just as Labor couldn’t understand why Rudd was attractive, the Liberals have no understanding of why Malcolm is.

    And that’s the problem Malcolm has. His personal appeal is built on his image of someone who is ‘with it’ – who understands issues such as climate change, ssm, telecommunications, etc – in a way that other Liberals aren’t.

    But other Liberals don’t understand that. They believe that there’s nothing wrong with their program, just that it’s being sold badly. Therefore someone who is more popular with ordinary folk will be able to sell the product, because there’s nothing wrong with it.

    Malcolm can’t change the party, because the party doesn’t recognise it needs changing. And to lead the party, Malcolm will have to trash his own image.

    The Liberals know Malcolm is popular. They don’t know why. And not knowing why means they will kill the goose because they don’t think the eggs are golden.

    Great analysis.

  14. Turnbott’s appeal is class-related. People want to identify with the well-educated, urbane, wealthy and charming figure. It’s social affiliation. The sub-text is that if people “feel” or “show” friendship to this figure the friendship may be returned. Such a pity. The truth is he doesn’t draw his friends from the unwashed. He likes money. He enjoys his money and the monied. Of course, he has so much money that he likes himself most of all.

  15. [Oh, chortle – after weeks of ‘Labor running dead in Canning’, now the ABC is talking about Labor and the unions spending millions there…]

    we have always been at war with eastasia

  16. My tip is that Turnbott will present the ChAFTA-related amendments to the Immigration Act to the Senate. They will be defeated. He will present them again and they will again be defeated. He will have a DD trigger and he will use it.

    The re-construction of an indentured labour force will take Australia right back to where it was in the 1890s, before the rise of Labor and before Federation. If he can pull it off, Turnbott would be the most successful Tory leader of all time.

  17. ratsak:

    There certainly are deep divisions in the Liberal party, that is for sure. But I’m in two minds about the impact rightwing reactionary media commentators gunning for MT and JB have.

    It seems to me that the Bolts, AKermans, 2GBLand folk, Chris Kennys and Albrechtstens of the media and their followers feel vastly different about the removal of Abbott than the rest of the country.

    If Turnbull’s leadership translates into good polling for the coalition, then I doubt we’ll hear much angst from the above for very long.

  18. briefly @ 969

    There is a segment on 7.30 in Canberra at least about the Canning by-election, including comments by William. You will, no doubt, be interested but it is pretty slight. Two vox pops were included, a hairdresser who always votes Liberal and an electrician (who owns his own business) who says he will vote Liberal because of Turnbull, but usually votes Labor.

    Have you done any campaigning since Turnbull knocked Abbott off? Have you noticed any changes in feedback? Interested to know.

  19. [Turnbott’s appeal is class-related. People want to identify with the well-educated, urbane, wealthy and charming figure.]

    There may be that, but I think DTR is right in that voters want our leaders to be adult-like and competent. There must be a reason why Turnbull deliberately used the phrase of speaking to voters as adults in his throwing-down speech on Monday.

  20. PhoenixGreen@907

    [Terri Butler is amazing. Fantastic choice by Labor, hope to see more like her in future]

    Just as impressive in person – my local member. Personable, hard worker in the electorate, great grasp of issues, prodigious memory.

  21. Player One@753

    triton

    After all, he still wants climate action and SSM.


    But his party will allow him neither. Which will soon become very obvious. Then what does he do?

    They’ll allow SSM. They can’t stop it if there’s a plebiscite in favour. His opponents have lost that one and he won’t be blamed. Climate change is a bigger problem, but I don’t detect a desperation in the electorate to revisit a carbon price. Abbott saw to that. Turnbull didn’t go to an election on it and then break his word. He just espoused a position that isn’t particularly popular right now. He’ll go with direct action and get some grief for hypocrisy but he’ll fudge his way through it without losing much skin.

  22. Abbott 2013: “no cuts to ABCDEFG”
    Abbott 2015: “no whiteanting, leaking, undermining, whingeing, sulking, holding my breath until I pass out or flinging turds.”
    Is this a pattern?

  23. BK@974

    I can’t come at Hastie. He has a certain creepiness about him.

    I agree. I think it’s his eyes. There seems to be no life there, and his expression is at all times wooden.

  24. triton

    [ They’ll allow SSM. They can’t stop it if there’s a plebiscite in favour. ]

    The plebiscite is an expensive delaying tactic. If Turnbull is too gutless to legislate, he should pay for the plebiscite out of his own pocket.

  25. [I can’t come at Hastie. He has a certain creepiness about him.]

    You might think PTSD, not something to be laughed at.

    Or perhaps as a trained killer. He just measures everyone he meets on that level, sort of like am I going to neck you, are you a threat etc. etc.

    Just the sort of nut we don’t need anymore of.

  26. [If Turnbull’s leadership translates into good polling for the coalition, then I doubt we’ll hear much angst from the above for very long.]

    We might not hear it, but it will still bubble away under the surface ready to boil over as soon as he gets a bad poll. I just don’t see Turnbull ever being accepted.

  27. Where does this idea come that Malcolm Turnbull is all that intelligent? I’ve seen no great signs. Yes, he’s made a lot of money. But that isn’t hard if you’re a great suck-arse (Kerry Packer, Neville Wran et al) and have heaps of front (which is not in doubt).

  28. [Stephen Mayne ‏@MayneReport 2m2 minutes ago
    Bolt claims a friend of his took Abbott to dinner last night & he’s coping ok. Sticking close to Bolt-Jones-Hadley was his biggest mistake.]

    still in some sort of delayed shock that we had Tony Abbott as PM for 2 years. What were we thinking?

  29. Although I tend to agree more with DTT about the impact of compromise with those to Turnbull’s right, I definitely agree that if the PERCEPTION of duplicity or flip flopping could be damaging, IF it can be made to stick.

    I think to presume that’s the best line of attack is premature and that it is still for Turnbull to reveal his hand. If he squibs (granted – continues to squib) on stamping his authority with a new less radical agenda in the coming weeks only then he will be open to those attacks.

    I just think people (strategists) will need to get his measure as a PM a bit more before charging ahead.

  30. [I just don’t see Turnbull ever being accepted.]

    Nor do I. But I guess until Morrison is ready, willing and able, he’s their best bet.

  31. So, like Rudd, Turnbull has to appeal over the heads of tribal Lib warlords, particularly Scrot Morrison the happy-clapper and Madame DeathStare of WA. Who are the other factional leaders?

    I think Abbott lost the leadership when he pissed off Pristopher by dragging the peanut farmers in to the marriage equality debate.

    Fun fact: Abbott’s first cabinet had twice as many peanut farmers from Kingaroy as women.

  32. Peter Hartcher tackling the big issues.

    [New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is operating from his old office as Communications Minister, without full access to the prime ministerial diary, more than three days after winning the leadership.
    While the former prime minister Tony Abbott is understood to have left, his staff are still occupying the prime minister’s office suite, led by his former chief of staff, Peta Credlin.
    The office is not expected to be fully vacated until Saturday, making it one of the slower transitions for a head of government of recent years.
    ]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/office-politics-tony-abbotts-staff-slow-to-leave-their-old-digs-20150917-gjpada.html#ixzz3lzRJb6C2
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  33. Briefly – Would the libs really want a campaign focused upon Chafta – having the people told there are only 5000 jobs in it (according to the Govt’s own report) and it is work-choices by stealth. Got my doubts.

  34. Why do I feel uncomfortable about people from a military background, especially those that are highly trained killing machines, entering into politics?

  35. RK – Rudd didn’t have to appeal over the heads of anyone, really. In his first time, there was great unanimity on policy. He just differed on the internal structure of the party. I think that’s very different to Turbot

  36. Andrew hastie is unbelievably creepy to look at. Seeing him makes pet of me want to believe david icke’s reptilian conspiracy theories.

  37. Laura Tingle has been sent in to bayonet the last wounded of the Abbott Prime Ministership

    [On what would be the last day of his prime ministership, Tony Abbott spent the morning flying back from Adelaide where he had announced funding for 15.5 kilometres of a bigger road project which the federal government has already announced countless times.

    In recent years, it seems to have become part of daily prime ministerial duties to preside over every ribbon cutting for every stretch of bitumen laid out in the country.
    ]

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/leadership-spill-turnbull-coup-resets-a-government-that-had-stopped-working-20150917-gjoxui#ixzz3lzTGUCMh
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

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