Today’s Sunday Mail in Queensland publishes federal voting intention figures from the Galaxy poll that produced the state results you can read about in the post immediately below this one. The federal results are broadly similar to the state ones, and likewise in alignment with the current Queensland reading of BludgerTrack, in crediting Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, which represents an 8% swing compared with the 2013 election result. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (compared with 45.7% in 2013), 37% for Labor (29.8%), 10% for the Greens (6.2%) and 3% for Palmer United (11.0%). The poll also provides a second encouraging personal result for Bill Shorten following his improved rating in last weekend’s Ipsos poll, with 40% rating him the federal leader with the “best plan for Queensland” compared with 34% for Tony Abbott – a question that produced a 42-40 split in favour of Abbott when last posed in the wake of the budget in May. The poll had a sample of 800 respondents, and was presumably conducted late in the week.
UK Tories:
[He said he had never attended sex parties at Dolphin Square or with MPs, and had not murdered anyone. “Everything I have done has been consensual”, he wrote, expressing shock that anyone might think otherwise. He has demanded that any evidence against him be produced, or his name cleared.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/harvey-proctor-former-tory-mp-faces-second-police-interview-in-relation-to-murder-allegation-10467403.html
Michael Kroger appears to be using the “Mantanch Matter” to further his cause.
Mantanch is from the majority traditional Libs in the Victorian Branch. Kroger is the hard reight. Kroger is President of a Branch over which he has no control. He doesn’t like that and wants to get his followers in to winnable seats and the administration.
Hence, apart from the criminality aspect, the political layer is a huge problem for the Libs. If Mantanch is pursued too vigorously, he might begin revealing where the bodies are buried. Maybe revelations about the pursuit of the previous Police Commissioner might find their way to the front pages of our local newspapers.
I noticed Guy this morning stepping bacck somewhat from his earlier outrage and preaching the ‘we must all come togethere’ mantra.
Should be fun to observe.
Hence, his
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/greens-announce-curtin-lectured-vanessa-rauland-as-canning-candidate-20150823-gj5kov.html
[ The West Australian Greens have announced their candidate for the Canning by-election – Curtin University lecturer Vanessa Rauland.
Ms Rauland, who is a renewable energy advocate and a small business owner, said Prime Minister Tony Abbot was out of touch with the Canning community. ]
lizzie@125
This article reveals that the Abbotts anti-climate stance is the ultimate anti terrorism weapon…..global warming will eventually kill off or reduce terrorism….
a bit like the economic factors have had more impact on bringing down fossil fuel than years of activism…
[Can we even continue without a troll quorum?]
We just have to talk nicely – and intelligently – among ourselves.
Hastie is making a big thing about his war service, fair enough. Given this, it is only fair that it be examined in the media, including that incident with the hands. No one is saying that he is guilty of any wrongdoing. In any case I understand that the investigation is ongoing although he has been cleared.
I’m not that keen on Hastie’s apparent contempt for occupations that are less adventurous than that he recently left, disparaging those with such jobs as having ‘sat behind a desk, pushing paper’. If I were a Canning swinging voter, a sense of superiority is not something I would want in a representative. He also appears to be a right wing authoritarian, a plus for those who already support the Abbott Government, but less so for those in the middle whose votes are being chased.
In any case, it’s all moot. A vote for Hastie is a vote for Abbott PM, for continued clownish incompetence at the top. It wouldn’t matter if Hastie were St Michael or St George.
So each party has put up their paradigm candidate:
Libs: I’m a war hero – how dare you diss me! And by the way, Labor wants to hand our country over to terrorists, hordes of asylum seekers and international greenies. But I’ll protect you.
Labor: local boy made good – or at least good enough to still have some roots in the community. Will deal with bread and butter matters and channel anti-Barnett sentiment, as well as local dismay over the rapidly ebbing mining boom feel good tide.
Greens: Renewable energy expert. Build it green and they will come.
Palmer United: Minime
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/strange-times-in-queensland-polling.html
Strange Times In Queensland Polling
My detailed assessment of recent Queensland state polling, posted mainly because the Courier-Mail’s assessment is rubbish.
also link to my Canning analysis, which is updated often:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/canning-by-election-prospects-and-polls.html
I can see that Mr Hastie will appeal very much to LNP voters in Canning, the question is, will he appeal to swinging voters?
Self absorbed troll in action:
[Im the one generating the discussion here!]
From the smh
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-minister-julie-bishop-blasts-appalling-andrew-hastie-tweets-20150823-gj5ksd.html
This is typical Aussie black humour. It actually says nothing about Hastie, other than what we all now know – that he was associated with this incident.
He states that he personally has been exonerated from being involved and defends the soldiers who did it. He appears to be right that it is outrageous that the matter has not been concluded after 2 years of investigation (although interestingly he does not point out the obvious that his party has been in charge of defence for almost that entire period).
The hypocritical hysteria being whipped up over what his party claims to be smears of an heroic Australian – although the reports have stated nothing but facts – might well backfire. There has to be a time where the Government of this nation and its leaders stop everything to take offence at every small perceived slight and actually start to govern.
Well last week the Liberal talking point was green terrorosts, this week it seems to be outrage that anyone is mentioning that Defence is looking into why Hastie was flying in a helcopter while his men were chopping hands off corpses below.
Oh and of cause we are off to war to save Abbotts hide.
[lizzie
Posted Sunday, August 23, 2015 at 10:33 am | Permalink
Thomas Friedman
Here’s my bet about the future of Sunni, Shiite, Arab, Turkish, Kurdish and Israeli relations: If they don’t end their long-running conflicts, Mother Nature is going to destroy them all long before they destroy one another.
Let me point out a few news items you may have missed while debating the Iran nuclear deal.On July 31, USA Today reported that in Bandar Mahshahr, Iran, a city adjacent to the Persian Gulf, the heat index soared to 73 degrees “as a heatwave continued to bake the Middle East, already one of the hottest places on Earth.
”That was one of the most incredible temperature observations I have ever seen, and it is one of the most extreme readings ever in the world,” AccuWeather meteorologist Anthony Sagliani said.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/with-middle-eastern-weather-extremes-politics-takes-a-back-seat-to-the-environment-20150821-gj4hi8.html#ixzz3jasK5xAL%5D
It is not either/or as implied by Friedman.
Whether they all keep killing each other or not, the long-term temperature trend in the ME is up and up and up.
Naturally, while they continue to invest heavily in killing each other they are not building resilience. But that is another matter.
The ‘heat index’ is a bit of media bs, IMHO, because it has introduced oranges to the apples.
What uproar are we up to now?
BBishopGate, YakkaGate, DysonGate, HandChopgate, CabinetLeakGate, MantachGate, BombSyriaGate,
I trust that Shorten will have the good sense to publicly call on Abbott to explain what the expected BombSyriaGate outcome are going to be.
Vanessa will be a great candidate for the Greens. I hope she does well.
Boerwar
I found the article to be very confusing. There was a piece a day or two ago in the Age, which added to the merriment.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/as-war-sows-chaos-on-ground-it-can-lead-to-cleaner-air-study-says-20150821-gj591p.html
The sad thing about canning is it is an election Labor really needs to lose if they want to win the next federal election. If Labor win Abbott is gone and Abbott is for sure Labors No 1 asset.
The trouble is the Liberals seem to be putting a mighty effort into losing it.
@BW/165
We just need MilitaryGate and MurdochGate to end Abbott/Coal.
For the life of me I cannot understand the need to chop off the hands of dead Taliban fighters. I cannot see the necessity of identifying them or what it would achieve, its not as though they were Osama Bin Laden or Mullah Omah.
This type of thing only leads to the loss of any high moral ground which is critical in being maintained, at the very least in ensuring the support of an army’s own countrymen (not to mention UN conventions & international law). Stooping to what can be easily perceived as atrocities only leads to further atrocities & diminishes the Cause. If identification was so important, wouldn’t photos have been sufficient?
Is anyone aware of why there was such a dire need to undertake such an action in this situation?
The Libs have made a choice for Canning that likely backfire.
A candidate that tells the average voter that they’re paper pushers?
FMD
AussieAchmed
Posted Saturday, August 22, 2015 at 9:22 pm | PERMALINK
[
]
Fromm previous thread.
[says a lot a the Liberals]
Says a lot about Shorten also.
Maybe caused by the Sunday morning hang over I’m nursing right now, but that picture got me a bit teary.
Shorten is such a normal, sensible sort of bloke, who clearly gives an actual shit about people.
I sincerely hope he is permitted a decade to repair Abbott’s wreckage.
He will need every day of it.
Fred
The only thing worse for LNP than Abbott would be anyone else trying to fix the mess that he will leave behind. It is my fervent wish that J Bishop takes over, shows what she is really made of and loses her seat at the next election.
CTaR1
Has FIGJAM down pat.
Who are these “Libs” or “Liberals” that everyone keeps referring to? My main objection to the “Liberal Party” is that it is not liberal at all. If we had a real Liberal Party in this country, I’d be much happier. I mightn’t always vote for it but it would be nice to know it was a possibility, and it wouldn’t be horrifying if it got into government.
In the interests of accuracy would all PBs please refer to the current party as the Not-At-All-Liberal Party, the Notional Liberal Party, the Nominally Liberal Party, the Ostensibly-But-Not-Really-Liberal Party, or some such other term. Or even the Conservative Party. But not “Liberal”.
Bw
[Has FIGJAM down pat.]
He could back up the Feds at Parly Hse with his own M-15.
RM @ 174
The only thing that would save the Coalition if they dump Abbott is if they replace him with Scum, who then does the dirty on the right wing denialist group and reveals himself to be a closet wet.
Otherwise, they are done – and the sooner Abbott goes, the sooner his successor has time to be undermined by dissatisfied (on policy, political or personal grounds) colleagues. And if Abbott remains, it is hard to see him now taking it quietly. Especially as he is convinced he is such a great campaigner that he could have beaten all opposition if only he had a chance to go to another election.
Whatever happens, they are a mess.
Labor needs to keep doing what it is doing to maximise the chances of government. And what it is doing is playing to their game plan, not anyone else’s. And part of that is not playing the sort of games (like the Heydon Royal Commission) that Abbott and co play so much they have lost touch with reality. Like an immersed addictive electronic gamer.
The main thing is to remember it is not about winning the election, or even about running the country. It is about being in a position to develop policies and deliver programs that will make life better for most Australians for decades into the future.
It’s hard to make a comment on this. You all know how I feel about Tony’s kissing technique.
[Shane Matthew Neave @shane25873 · 1m1 minute ago
The love is so overwhelming, it is hard to even recognise! #auspol pic.twitter.com/WgE9Q7MLgY ]
JAR @ 176
How about the Not the American Idea of Liberal Liberal Party?
[The only thing worse for LNP than Abbott would be anyone else trying to fix the mess that he will leave behind. It is my fervent wish that J Bishop takes over, shows what she is really made of and loses her seat at the next election.]
As dumb as a box of hammers as he is, the really scary thought for the Libs is that Abbott is actually the best leader they have. Of the current cabinet only Morrison and Turnbull could possibly be considered an improvement. Take Bishop out of the cushy FM role and her grave limitations are quickly exposed. The rest of them would make an acceptable minestrone if you chucked in some pasta.
So would ScoMo or Truffles be a better leader? Well if the nutjobs continue to hold sway and drive the party out past the far right horizon then he’d go no better than last time even before his own personal failings come into it.
So ScoMo looks like their only hope. He’s less likely to do as many obviously stupid things as Abbott so that’s an advantage, and would satisfy the rabids, whilst possibly being in a strong enough position to throw the ‘moderates’ (sic) a bone. But he’s no sure bet. He might come to grief under the added pressure, and he will need to work harder to keep the nasty under wraps.
They are in a bind. Abbott is manifestly inadequate for the job, but it’s not completely obvious that they have any better options. They may yet throw him under the bus, but it will be in desperation and they could end up out of the frying pan and into the fire.
It’s wonderful entertainment.
Dr Bonham, re: A plebiscite banning plebiscites. Hear hear.
[Take Bishop out of the cushy FM role and her grave limitations are quickly exposed. ]
As was demonstrated by her appalling overreach and illogicality in her interview on the Insiders this morning.
[The love is so overwhelming, it is hard to even recognise!]
PR people very hard at work.
‘See ya, tones.]
TPOF – the American idea of Liberal is closer to the historical and etymological roots of the words than the meaning given to it by Tony’s party. So I’d accept “Not the American or Anyone Else Outside Australia’s Idea of Liberal Liberal Party”. Bit long but.
[They may yet throw him under the bus]
…and in that moment of regicide they will discover that they were still attached to him, like the blue tie caught in the shredding machine.
> For the life of me I cannot understand the need to chop off the hands of dead Taliban fighters.
Come now. Seriously. Revenge. Not just on the people killed, but as a warning to the people still fighting them.
ce
[Is anyone aware of why there was such a dire need to undertake such an action in this situation?]
I suspect it had as much to do with humiliation as it did to do with ID, there are many more less barbaric methods of confirming a persons identity.
As regards command responsibility I assume ultimately it is the senior officer who is responsible for the actions of his/her subordinates, tough but that’s war.
Hastie
Will do or allow anything. Good look?
[For the life of me I cannot understand the need to chop off the hands of dead Taliban fighters.]
You’d have thought fingerprint technology does not usually require such extremes….couldn’t they get their dabs on something?
Kink
[You’d have thought fingerprint technology does not usually require such extremes….couldn’t they get their dabs on something?]
They’ve watched too many James Bond films.
ratsak @ 181
Having riffed off a couple of comments, I should add I like your assessment. Scum is the one that interests me because Turnbull will never be allowed to lead in peace except while he is saving a few deckchairs on the sinking ship.
I think Scum will be somewhat vulnerable to individual cases coming out of Nauru and Manus (and his grossly inadequate and dissembling responses to the allegations).
More importantly, his debt to the right wing bloc that is currently keeping Abbott on life support means that he will find it difficult moving from their socially conservative climate change denial agenda.
There will still be issues of trust about whether his party is, in any way, shape or form, capable of taking Australia forward. They have spent the whole of the government so far playing stupid political tricks, like third rate child magicians entertaining the family with tricks from ‘my first book of magic’. Climate Change will be a huge issue on the agenda over summer if every prediction of a super el Nino comes true. And everything they have done since 2009 has been to avoid doing anything constructive on climate change. Who would believe a change of heart would be genuine now – especially after they reneged in 2007.
As the NBN rolls out at glacial speed it will get more prominence over the next twelve months as people with full fibre connections lord it over their friends and family still coping with increasingly inadequate copper line based ADSL (or worse). The cost blowouts on Fraudband will provide further grist to the policy mill as they are demonstrably massive overruns.
And, finally, the Commission that was to engineer Shorten’s downfall has been almost literally hoist on its own petard.
So Labor will be up against a Government that has achieved nothing to make our lives better, a downturn in our economic circumstances, no policies to go forward with or else policy ideas that are patently band aids over gaping wounds, and a party that is internally riven as to how far into the past they should look for inspiration.
[ mikehilliard
Posted Sunday, August 23, 2015 at 1:10 pm | Permalink
ce
Is anyone aware of why there was such a dire need to undertake such an action in this situation?
I suspect it had as much to do with humiliation as it did to do with ID, there are many more less barbaric methods of confirming a persons identity.
As regards command responsibility I assume ultimately it is the senior officer who is responsible for the actions of his/her subordinates, tough but that’s war.
]
…. imagine the ‘outrage’ if it had happened to an Australian soldier ….
> …. imagine the ‘outrage’ if it had happened to an Australian soldier ….
That’s exactly the intention of the soldiers. Be barbaric. There are some shocking documentaries on what american soldiers do in the same instance. It’s pretty tasteless stuff (and downright horrific) so I won’t get into it here, but they know exactly why they’re doing it.
War brutalizes.
Simple as that.
If you have already eviscerated someone or blown off their heads with gunfire the next step of cutting off hands for ID is a very small step.
So Hastie is leaving his mates on the battlefield to become a pen pushing double talking pollie in Canberra?
Sounds courageous, question time can be brutal
[So Hastie is leaving his mates on the battlefield to become a pen pushing double talking pollie in Canberra?]
Spot on.
Privi izumo
[That’s exactly the intention of the soldiers. Be barbaric.]
I admit that is a possibility but I think there is also a possibility of a more legitimate motivation if determining the ID of the fighters in question is in some way crucial.
[question time can be brutal]
could take them out the back…
Surely they should have cut off their heads too to make identification more certain