BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Ongoing government troubles prompt a third move in Labor’s favour in successive weeks on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, as preselection jockeying gets started in the seats of Mackellar and Canning.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has, almost, moved half a point in Labor’s favour for the third week in a row, the exact two-party movement on this occasion being 0.4%. This was the result of two new polls this week, one from ReachTEL and the other the regular weekly Essential Research result. Newspoll was silent this week because, social media conspiracy theorising aside, it’s the practice of The Australian to have its polls coincide with the resumption of parliament, which means next week rather than this week. Whereas last week’s movement caused four seats to tip Labor’s way on the projection, this time there is but the one, that being in Victoria.

Nothing new this week on leadership ratings, but a fair bit to report on preselection:

• The future of the plum Liberal seat of Mackellar on Sydney’s northern beaches is a hot topic following Bronwyn Bishop’s resignation as Speaker. The West Australian reports that Bishop is “under internal pressure to quit parliament immediately”, but the 72-year-old Bishop says she’s set on another term. However, the crude fact that her pension will erode the longer she is on a back-bench salary makes this a doubtful proposition. It had long been thought that her successor might be her chief-of-staff, Damien Jones, who is a member of the party’s state executive, husband of state upper house MP Natasha Maclaren-Jones and, according to James Robertson of the Sydney Morning Herald, Bishop’s “local numbers man”. However, The Australian (paywalled) reports that Jones is “seen as ‘damaged goods’”, since it was he who booked Bishop’s infamous $5227 helicopter flight to Geelong – a view expressed by Tom Switzer, a former opinion page editor of The Australian and past preselection aspirant who is ruling himself out on this occasion. Others who have been speculatively named without ruling themselves out include Julian Leeser, a former Menzies Research Centre head currently working in government relations at the Australian Catholic University; Walter Villatora, chairman of the party’s Warringah federal electoral council and a campaigner for democratising preselection reforms favoured by the religious Right faction; John Ruddick, an ally of Villatora’s in the reform push; Greg Burton, a barrister; and Jim Longley, state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1996 and a minister in John Fahey’s government from 1992 to 1995, who is now chief executive of the ageing, disability and home care division of the NSW Department of Family and Community Services. Longley challenged Bishop for preselection ahead of the last election.

• The West Australian reports that possible Liberal preselection candidates for the Canning by-election include “Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone, Murdoch University law lecturer Lorraine Finlay and party figure Nathan Gudgeon”. Another mentioned in the local press is Steve Marshall, a 57-year-old former earthworks businessman who says he will run as an independent if he doesn’t win, which doesn’t sound like a winning pitch to these ears. The West Australian also reports that Labor’s preselection candidates will include Matt Keogh, a commercial lawyer, president of the Law Society of WA, and member of the Right faction.

• Nationals veteran Bruce Scott has confirmed the long-held expectation that he will retire at the next election, making available his sprawling and safely conservative Queensland seat of Maranoa. Scott has been in the news of late due to his role as deputy Speaker – Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that he hoped to replace Bishop, but the Liberals will not have the job go to a National. According to Penelope Arthur of Queensland Country Life, potential preselection contenders in Maranoa include David Littleproud, a Toowoomba bank manager; Robert Loughnan, mayor of Maranoa; and Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor. Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that state Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg has ruled himself out, despite being “subject of pressure from some quarters of the Liberal National Party to run for a federal seat”. Labor’s preselected candidate is Dave Kerrigan, a rural health worker.

• The ABC reports that Steve Georganas will face opposition from “long-time Labor member” Delia Brennan in his bid for Labor preselection in the Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, which he lost to Liberal candidate Matt Williams after nine years as member in 2013. However, The Australian reports that Georganas is “widely expected to win easily”. Mark Ward, a school teacher and candidate for the state by-election for Davenport in January, has won preselection to run against Liberal incumbent and Speakership aspirant Andrew Southcott in Boothby. Labor’s preselection process for Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt is ongoing.

• My paywalled Crikey contributions over the past fortnight or so concern Labor’s position on boat turnbacks and the contrast presented with the Labour Party in Britain, which appears poised to choose hard left ideologue Jeremy Corbyn as its new leader; the Tasmanian Greens preselection process that will shortly see former federal party leader Christine Milne succeeded by former state party leader Nick McKim; a Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry that appears to have been established due to Coalition concerns about emergency services union activists campaigning for Labor while wearing work-related apparel; the state of play in Western Australian state politics as the parties grapple with the implications of a just-announced redistribution; and, in yesterday’s edition, the coming prime ministership of Nick Xenophon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,276 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 26 of 26
1 … 25 26

  3. zoidlord – 2014 article on Albrechtsen. Its been floating around today on twitter for some reason. Half of the people doing so seem to know its old, and half are just rewteeting it.

  4. Psyclaw …unrealistic because the wrong people are being put forward as representatives and accountability is missing leaving the lid off the cookie jar for grubby fingers to make a grab?
    A big change in attitude is required in the political process .. Politicians appear to say how honoured and privileged and humbled they are to be elected blah blah baa .. And then plan their all expenses paid trips… Not good enough for me I am afraid. … Loons deserve representation too you know 😉

  6. 1255

    The failure to remove the partisans, such as Albrechtsen, from the ABC board was a major failure of the Rudd Government.

  9. @BevanShields: Poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers not pretty for Tony Abbott. When he said he’d pay a price for Bronwyn Bishop, he wasn’t wrong! #auspol

  10. Well, if her colleagues did not hate Bronnhilde before now, her ridiculous extravagances will make them hate her now as she has ruined a nice little set of benefits, possibly for good!

  12. With some big AFL matchups, Premier League starting and the Bledisloe cup tonight, the local Sports Pub was packed. 20 something screens.

    And not one showing the cricket.

  14. Abbott is not going to walk, the Liberals will have to vote him out first. If he is toppled and replaced by Julie Bishop, his most likely replacement, she may get a short-term poll boost, but Abbott will soon be lingering on the backbenches as bitter and resentful as Kevin Rudd was. Hence even if the Coalition is reelected it would likely be by the narrowest of margins

  15. Abbott is not going to walk, the Liberals will have to vote him out first. If he is toppled and replaced by Julie Bishop, his most likely replacement, she may get a short-term poll boost, but Abbott will soon be lingering on the backbenches as bitter and resentful as Kevin Rudd was. Hence even if the Coalition is reelected it would likely be by the narrowest of margins

  18. Reachtel,has preferred PM

    Shorten 58.5
    Abbott 41.5

    They don’t give a don’t know option

    Primaries

    Lib 36.5
    Nat 3.7
    Lab 38.3
    Grn 12.8
    Pup 1.4
    Oth 7.3

  20. If you enlarge the image sprocket_ linked, you can just make out the primaries.

    Liberal 36.5
    National 3.7
    Labor 38.3
    Greens 12.8
    PUP 1.4
    Other 7.4

  21. It’s getting bit ho-hum.

    Now the Tele’s reporting Hockey used up just under $15,000 to fly his kids to Perth. It was on the anniversary of the End-Fo-The-Age-Of-Entitlement speech.

    Big difference between Hockey and Burke is that Hockey is a millionaire many times over. He didn’t need the money, but hey, if it’s there why not take it?

    Same with his house in Canberra. $290 a night? Money for jam.

  22. What a disgrace! Hope the ALP undoes this outrageous appointment, but I doubt they will – they never have in the past!

    This is old news but the point is well made. An incoming ALP Government needs to conduct a thorough cleanout of Abbott political appointments and stacked boards.

  24. loved this tweet
    7 ‏@Jansant 22h22 hours ago

    Breaking: Authorities believe pings originally thought to be missing #newspoll are the sounds of Turnbull ringing backbenchers. #auspol
    45 retweets 27 favorites

  25. Re ESJ’s identity:

    Tall, and blonde aged early 60s, recently changed gender?

    I don’t reckon its her: the stuff ESJ puts up is just too low-brow and trollish.

  26. Re ESJ:

    Tall, and blonde aged early 60s, recently changed gender?

    I don’t reckon its her: the stuff ESJ puts up is just too low-brow and trollish.

Comments Page 26 of 26
1 … 25 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *