Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research is back at 52-48 after a one week interruption at 53-47, and finds 42% of Coalition voters taking the view that the ABC is biased to the left.

The latest weekly reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average on federal voting intention has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, reverting to type after a blip to 53-47 last week. However, the only change on the primary vote is a one-point drop for the Greens to 10%, with the Coalition steady on 41% and Labor on 39%. Further questions find 22% perceiving the ABC as biased to the left (42% among Coalition voters, and 10% to 13% for the rest), 3% as biased to the right, 36% as biased in neither direction, and fully 40% responding with “don’t know”. Sixty-one per cent of respondents were opposed to Trans Pacific Partnership provisions allowing the government to be sued for policies that cost foreign companies money, with only 10% in support; and 69% thought it likely that same-sex marriage would be allowed in the next few years, compared with only 20% for unlikely. A series of responses on the government’s handling of issues finds it rating positively only on “supporting Australian businesses”, but its stocks have improved markedly since January on all measures except treatment of asylum seekers and environmental issues, with double-digit improvements on health, education and supporting Australian businesses.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,455 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. The huffing and puffing tactic from Merkel and her mates is old… time to sit down, swallow their pride and address the overriding problem of fixing the mess that is the EU.

  2. guytaur

    Point taken but their ego’s are completely over the top.

    Do you think someone like Lew Hoad would do the things this lot do?

  3. According to the FT, accumulated gross public sector exposure to official Greek borrowers by all Eurozone Governments, taking into account bilateral loans, commitments to the Stability Fund, advances via the central banking system and all other provisions totals about 3% of the GDP of the Euro-zone economies.

    This is not insignificant.

    It’s surely not systemically threatening, but if Greece returns to the drachma, these advances will certainly register in Eurogroup fiscal metrics.

  4. BB
    I was disgusted with the way Tony Jones piled on to Marles last night. He just wouldn’t let up. If he gave a Coalition MP that treatment Abbott would have been apoplectic.

  5. BK

    He has done that several times with Labor MPs but never so much, as I recall, with Libs. It’s the same method he uses in his Lateline interviews and I think it is totally inappropriate in Q&A – “the forum where you, the audience, ask the questions”. He should be reprimanded and told to stick to the format.

  6. Rex D

    Tony Jones will call a halt when panel members start interacting and questioning each other and point out that the audience is there for that.

  7. [Controlled aggression can benefit a tennis player, he says, because anger, frustration and outbursts can raise one’s emotional state and help get one’s mind hyper-active. So clenched fists, shouting and shirt-tugging are deliberate techniques to this end.
    But there are risks. This “hyper-arousal” worked for McEnroe in his early career but against him towards the end, when he was unable to control it, says Mr Mahoney.

    Some players like Roger Federer display little emotion on the outside, because all individuals have different levels of optimum arousal, and players like him know how to get there.]

  8. Ummm….

    Left this out @160
    [“Any sport is a pressure cooker and I don’t think tennis is unique in that,” says sport psychologist Craig Mahoney of Northumbria University, who worked for the Lawn Tennis Association for seven years.]

  9. guytaur

    I agree. The list of Aussie tennis players who have gone off the rails is too long. I’d say more than 50% have behavior problems which has seriously impacted in their careers. Whether it’s the pressure taking a toll, or expectations or lack of preparedness for the lifestyle there is something wrong with our tennis players.

  10. [I attack both parties, but Labor and their supporters need to realize that they are part of the problem, and not the solution.]

    And the largely impotent hecklers from the sidelines and their supporters are not. I get that.

  11. shellbell

    Thats why I could not argue about the ego comment from MTBW. Only McEnroe has been that rude to an umpire from my recollection, though I have probably missed someone.

  12. In my first year as a teacher, I had a student who was a high ranked tennis player (never heard of him in after years, so assume he bombed).

    I was concerned that, although he was obviously bright, he was falling behind with his work, and reported this to the year level co ordinator, who arranged a meeting for the three of us.

    I was gobsmacked when the co ordinator opened the meeting by basically saying that of course the kid didn’t need to worry about keeping up with his homework…

  13. There was that journeyman yank whose wife slapped an umpire.

    Of course Jimmy Connors had a temper but mainly at himself and he could be funny.

  14. At times bad tempered and wilful. With age, we tend to develop selective memory loss.

    [Dawn Fraser has always been a straight shooter. Whether as a teenage swimmer butting heads with officialdom]

  15. dave

    [ BK – abbott has the ABC exactly where he wants them.

    They are house trained. ]

    Exactly. It has been some time coming (it started with Howard), and those – including myself – who tried to point out what was happening were often ridiculed for it, but the conservatives finally seem to have got the ABC exactly where they want them – i.e. too scared of the inevitable nasty and massively disproportionate retribution to ever be brave enough to hold a conservative government to account.

    It will take years to rebuild a truly balanced and independent national broadcaster.

  16. Apparently Di Natale has buckled to public demands that the Greens put up or shut up on asylum seeker numbers and has announced that the Greens will fly in two million a year for each of the next twenty years.

    ‘This will address the asylum seeker backlog of around 46 million,’ asserted Mr Di Natale who went on to admit that he had no idea how the Greens were going to address the Newby asylum seekers who were bound to pop up over the next two decades.

    Mr Di Natale did assert that flying in two million asylum seekers a year put the Greens in a superior moral position to the Lab/Libs and that Greens’ asylum seeker policy would kill the inner-city market in tear bottles.

  17. RD @ 157

    This is not an interview format program. We have plenty of those. And Marles fronts up to those.

    The simple fact is that Jones picks and chooses which political representatives he is going to give a hard time to. There is no fairness and no consistency. I remember one episode in
    Tasmania where he basically subcontracted the questioning to Abetz, of all people.

    And, of course, there is the famous episode in 2010 where Mark Arbib was told not to front up while Labor was engaged in delicate negotiations with cross-benchers to form the next government because of the risk of undermining those negotiations. The producers and Jones screamed outrage at this assault on freedom of speech and the only replacement good enough for QandA then was an empty chair.

    Now, with the program itself being boycotted by the Government, Jones and his producers and management are grovelling around trying to find anyone from the right who will turn up to prove to the right the show is not unbalanced.

    Your post, sadly, reflects your prejudices rather than any logical analysis of the program.

    And I would not be sorry to see the program – and Tony Jones – shut up shop.

  18. I think pointing the finger at tennis players narrows the field somewhat.

    Our Ugly Australian cricket players – from the time of Ian C and his brother Greg – have a lot to answer to. Maybe Dawnie pinching the flag that many years ago was not such a good idea either.

    I always admire the hockey and netball women – and the football ones too – who manage to get through their games without having to show a lot aggro.

    Maybe it has something to do with male aggression. So be it, but just plain gross behaviour has little to recommend it.

    Mind you, the female grunting/screeching on each shot played in tennis does nothing for the game either. However, big money seems to excuse what might be described as normal and acceptable public behaviour for others.

  19. zoid seems to lack any ability to be positive on anything.

    If the topic is Labor and the economy, Labor and human rights, Labor and privacy, Labor and national security – there is little that is positive to say.

    The policies are beautifully typed.

  20. Player One

    [It will take years to rebuild a truly balanced and independent national broadcaster.]

    I was talking to a high level public servant the other day about the loss of independence in the public service – and how long it would take to rebuild it.

  21. [PeeBee
    Posted Tuesday, July 7, 2015 at 5:42 pm | PERMALINK
    Boerwar, sending Abbott back to where his parents come from would mean a fifty-fifty chance he would land up back here.

    From Wikipedia:Abbott was born in London, United Kingdom, to an Australian mother and a British father, and emigrated to Sydney in 1960.]

    The best compromise would be to exile Abbott to somewhere between UK and Oz. He would probably receive a friendly reception in Ukraine or Cambodia.

  22. RD

    [I suspect your anger is really with Marles and his poor performance.]

    Incredibly arrogant of you. Quite frankly, I’d back the logic and cogency of my observations and analysis against yours any day. And I think I would be backed by pretty much everyone on this site in that particular contest (if not in many others).

  23. You can tell the LNP know that TURC is going to be no good for them tomorrow.

    They have the distraction factor up to the max.

  24. [abc730 ‏@abc730
    With talk of China & Greece affecting our economy, @leighsales interviews former Treasurer Peter Costello, on #abc730 tonight. #ausbiz]
    Of course, consult an expert, someone who has been recognised as the world’s greatest treasurer…oh wait.

  25. ratsak at 185

    [My God, of all the people Tony Wright actually hinted at the real Abbott. It truly must be end of times.]

    There has been a few of these in the last couple of days. I’ve suggested that this dummy spit over QandA appearances was more seriously dangerous for Abbott than he realises. Like the Sir Prince Philip debacle, this is a symbolic and pointless gesture designed to give the big middle finger to ‘the latte-sipping lefties’. But the general public, and many on his own side, will again see it as a self-indulgent frolic when he is supposed to be looking after the national interest.

    The only reason why Abbott still holds the top job is that none of the possible challengers is prepared to take him on, as it would be political suicide for their own ambitions but open the way for the other contenders and nobody else has put themselves up as stalking horse the way it happened last time.

  26. [@Briefly/113

    I am far from being a troll, you guys best attacking Coalition Party.]
    There’s something to bust the irony meter from Zoidy.

  27. Are we at all sure Greece’s ex-Finance Minister is not distantly related to our Treasurer? There are striking similarities, starting with no knowledge of economics.

  28. zoomster

    [ I was talking to a high level public servant the other day about the loss of independence in the public service – and how long it would take to rebuild it. ]

    Yes, it is not just the ABC of course. But the ABC (for reasons that escape me) still seems to have public trust … and as such its corruption by the conservatives is much more insidious than most other public departments.

  29. z

    [I was concerned that, although he was obviously bright, he was falling behind with his work, and reported this to the year level co ordinator, who arranged a meeting for the three of us.]

    I know a kid who’s very good at tennis (ranked about 6th in Australia) in his age group.

    If you look at the odds of him making it as a professional tennis player, it’s about 0.1% literally. But his tennis coaches still want him to train every day, go on camps, go to tournaments and miss lots of school. And give up AFL (he is in the state team).

    The expectations and demands are completely unrealistic. And the tennis coaches must know they aren’t doing the best thing for the kids. How many failures are there for every Kyrgios?

  30. lizzie@111

    John Kerin

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s proposal to put F-35 fighter jets on the Navy’s two 27,000-tonne troop transport assault ships has been quietly dropped ahead of the government’s defence white paper after it was found the ships would require extensive reworking and the project was too costly.


    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/pms-floating-fighter-jet-plan-quietly-sunk-by-defence-20150707-gi6qxj?stb=twt

    Weren’t those ships designed for the Harrier? Didn’t think the F-35 and Harrier were designed with the same platform in mind but I could be wrong.

  31. MTBW@123

    Raaraa

    Dawn Fraser has issued a statement of apology for what she said.

    Mind you who do these young tennis players think they are.

    Them and their parents should just be grateful for what they have and grow up.

    But that’s beside the point. Call them on their lack of sportsmanship perhaps. Call them rude or disrespectful perhaps.

    Why bring heritage or country of origin into it? If they were 5th generation Australians, would she have told them to go back to England?

  32. [ Why bring out Former Treasurer, where is the current one? ]

    I think he’s gone off to Greece. They needed a new spiv.

  33. [guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, July 7, 2015 at 6:01 pm | PERMALINK
    @newscomauHQ: #BREAKING: A Sydney man is fighting for his life after contracting mad cow disease | http://t.co/DUvCri0mS9 http://t.co/j6s7g6BUY8%5D

    The story was on Ch10 news. It is truly tragic for the poor man as he does not have long to live. It was emphasised that his form of the disease is not contracted from eating beef and is extremely rare but very contagious. The medical explanation was given by a Dr Con(?) Costa, I think was/is president of the Doctors Reform Society.

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