Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research is back at 52-48 after a one week interruption at 53-47, and finds 42% of Coalition voters taking the view that the ABC is biased to the left.

The latest weekly reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average on federal voting intention has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, reverting to type after a blip to 53-47 last week. However, the only change on the primary vote is a one-point drop for the Greens to 10%, with the Coalition steady on 41% and Labor on 39%. Further questions find 22% perceiving the ABC as biased to the left (42% among Coalition voters, and 10% to 13% for the rest), 3% as biased to the right, 36% as biased in neither direction, and fully 40% responding with “don’t know”. Sixty-one per cent of respondents were opposed to Trans Pacific Partnership provisions allowing the government to be sued for policies that cost foreign companies money, with only 10% in support; and 69% thought it likely that same-sex marriage would be allowed in the next few years, compared with only 20% for unlikely. A series of responses on the government’s handling of issues finds it rating positively only on “supporting Australian businesses”, but its stocks have improved markedly since January on all measures except treatment of asylum seekers and environmental issues, with double-digit improvements on health, education and supporting Australian businesses.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,455 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. [CTar1

    Posted Tuesday, July 7, 2015 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    I saw an European finance commentator that the Greeks proposal will need to be closely based on the previous offer to them.

    If not many other EZ govts will need to go back to their parliaments.

    If true not much room to move.]

    True. Another closer-downer is that the ECB cannot lend money to banks which are insolvent. Everyone is politely pretending that the Greek Banks are not insolvent but if the Greek State fails to pay ECB bills by 20 June that polite pretence will have to go by the board as well.

    There is a rumour that the Charles de Gaulle is being loaded with French cheeses, Ortolans, Burgundy, Champagne, pate, and the like to ensure that a humanitarian catastrophe does not ruin the lifestyle of 50 year old Greek retirees.

  3. A week or two back Morrison & Murdoch launched the “war on welfare bludgers”. Nothing more has been heard of this crusade. Has it perhaps been overtaken by the “war on the ABC”? Or perhaps the “war on Bill Shorten”?

    Or has Abbott told Morrison that only he (Abbott) can declare war?

  8. @Ctar/105

    No it’s nothing to do with attitude, when the other party isn’t coming to the party, what else you left to do?

  10. Following the article William linked at 51 regarding NSW Liberal Party factions, here are some other older articles on the same topic that help fill in the background.

    http://honisoit.com/2014/08/young-libs-exposed-the-ambition-faction-the-left-and-the-uglies/
    [Young Libs exposed: The Ambition Faction, the Left, and the Uglies
    By Honi Soit on August 5, 2014]

    http://tharunka.arc.unsw.edu.au/conservative-club-controversy-rival-liberal-factions-continues/
    [Conservative Club controversy with rival Liberal factions continues
    Tharunka Admin February 28, 2014]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/11/13/factional-game-the-inside-story-of-nsw-anti-abortion-laws/
    [Factional game: the inside story of NSW anti-abortion laws
    Claire Pullen | Nov 13, 2013 12:43PM]

  12. lizzie

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s proposal to put F-35 fighter jets on the Navy’s two 27,000-tonne troop transport assault ships has been quietly dropped ahead of the government’s defence white paper]

    After purchasing, and paying for them to be modified restoring the ‘through deck’ capability (a big lift) would require the main deck to be ripped off and replaced. And then lots of electronics and logistic systems to be fitted.

    Rather than just buy the original Spanish version the modified version was bought so the neighbors (read Indonesia) were not alarmed.

  13. [99
    TPOF

    …the real question is what zoid meant by this comment:

    Ah briefly, use the TPOF defense.]

    iow…not engaging with the troll

  14. Lazarus’ sturdy finger up Abbott’s clacker…

    Australian public policy debate reaches new depths… uh… new heights…

    uh…

  17. Whoa ther!

    Who’s a “vile proponent”…me or Tony Abbott.

    Briefly, you need a lie down. It was a parody post.

    My wife always says my greatest gift and my greatest curse is to be able to keep a straight face when I’m telling a joke. Some people don’t get them.

  18. Bw

    [Maybe if we give the Indonesians our F-35s it would be win-win?]

    Two ships of that size are a huge waste of money even if they were proper through deck.

    We don’t have enough escorts to deploy even one to provide a ‘screen’ with out help.

  19. [Lazarus’ sturdy finger up Abbott’s clacker…]

    They had John Doyle (aka “Rampagin’ Roy Slavin” of “Roy & HG” fame) on 702 ABC this afternoon explaining the intricacies of the various tackles, and their aims. Roy & HG coined the name “The Brick With Ears” for Glenn Lazarus, so Doyle was brought in as a key expert.

    When the ABC announcer quipped that Abbott may have to wear a box to Parliament in case Lazarus made to carry out his threat, Doyle replied “Two boxes – one for the front and another for the back passage”.

    I nearly drove off the road, laughing.

  20. Dawn Fraser could have just told those boys to behave or to change their behaviour. Why bring up where their parents came from?

  21. [117
    Bushfire Bill

    Whoa ther!

    Who’s a “vile proponent”…me or Tony Abbott.

    Briefly, you need a lie down. It was a parody post.]

    You’re right. I’ve been particularly vexed lately. Of course, the exponent I was thinking of was TA. I must be internalising the hate-mail from the hate-PM.

  22. [Lazarus’ sturdy finger up Abbott’s clacker…]

    I’ve tried to find the spoof of John Hoppalate as an Ansett 767 crack inspector before.

    But it seems lost.

  23. Raaraa

    Dawn Fraser has issued a statement of apology for what she said.

    Mind you who do these young tennis players think they are.

    Them and their parents should just be grateful for what they have and grow up.

  24. The good from the Dawn Fraser comments is the backlash.

    Quick response from the community making it known they are not acceptable.

  25. [44m44 minutes ago
    abc730 ‏@abc730
    With talk of China & Greece affecting our economy, @leighsales interviews former Treasurer Peter Costello, on #abc730 tonight. #ausbiz]

    [Bridget O’Flynn retweeted
    eleanor bloom
    42m42 minutes ago
    eleanor bloom ‏@eleanorbloom
    weird day gets weirder. Paul Kelly savaging Abbott. #sky]

  26. As for young sports stars being role models what a laugh that is. They have to grow up themselves first.

    Just look at how the media treated Ian Thorpe to name one. They wanted him to be a role model at 15.

  28. guytaur

    What is absolutely ridiculous is that people expect great behaviour from young sport people, but not so much from our govt leaders

  29. victoria

    Thats two News Corps people you would expect to support Abbott. Maybe its getting close to the 6 months and these are the start of softening up the electorate for a libspill

  30. Boerwar, sending Abbott back to where his parents come from would mean a fifty-fifty chance he would land up back here.

    From Wikipedia:Abbott was born in London, United Kingdom, to an Australian mother and a British father, and emigrated to Sydney in 1960.

  32. It was almost as if Richard Glover (702 ABC “Drive” host) had read my #77.

    He was talking with Mark Riley from the 7 Network on Bill Shorten’s appearance before the TURC tomorrow and, no matter what Riley said in Shorten’s favour – good deal for workers, record time to completion, CFMEU out of the game, Tony Shephed’s endorsement etc. – Glover insisted on putting the contra point of view. It was a classic ABC “balance” effort.

    Glover said that there should be a “proper distance” between workers and bosses, asked Riley whether he’d be concerned his union leadership had done deals with the employers, and whether it was good for a union not to be out on strike and stuff when it was their job to confront management, not accommodate it.

    It was a classic “Damned-if-you-do/Damned-if-you-don’t” attitude. As far as Glover is concerned, if a union isn’t picketing, sending companies broke, and indeed takes a $300,000 commission for ensuring a $2.5 billion project sets records for wages and industrial harmony, then whoever is the leader of that union isn’t doing a proper job.

    It was EXACTLY the argument the shit-stirring “investigative team” on The Age put forward, and refused – in the face of conclusive evidence against it – to retract, continuing to insinuate that Shorten was some kind of “class traitor” for getting a good deal for his members. This attitude led to the ridiculous (and pathetically weak) “suggestion” – more in sorrow than in anger etc. – from the SMH that Shorten should “step down”.

    It was weak as piss as a suggestion then, and remains weak as piss today. It was a fossilized media outlet wheezing out defiance in almost its last breath.

    Imagine if Shorten HAD stepped down – as all the newspapers insinuated he should at least be thinking about. Abbott’s triumph in having all three Labor leaders – Shorten, Gillard and Rudd – hauled before Royal Commissions would have been complete.

    Someone here said the other day that if Counsel Assisting sprang a surprise question on shorten tomorrow and embarrassed him, then perhaps he should resign after all.

    There won’t be a “surprise”. The TURC leakers shot their bolt letting The Age in on the best “scandal” material they had: the Melbourne Eastlink project. And it fell in a heap, flatter than a SAO.

    Whoever made that comment (I won’t say who it was) had fallen for the media line that Shorten obviously had something to hide and that, in this modern world, there are “surprises” and “gotchas” aplenty just waiting fore the TURC to vomit up. There aren’t. The Age’s pathetic effort was about as good as it gets for the anti-Shorten brigade.

    The REAL scandal here is precisely that abbott has configured two Royal Commissions as witch hunts to try to embarrass his political enemies… both of which have failed miserably to do so. Riley on 702 ABC noted the fact of Labor leaders before RCs, but in typical Press Gallery fashion made no comment on the ethics of it, or the wisdom of persecuting your political enemies via concocted commissions of inquiry and the sledgehammer of sworn testimony.

  33. Had a chuckle at Bill Shortens ‘old school’ address to the base at the Sydney pub.

    A good idea to shore up support before tomorrows kangaroo court session.

  34. BB @ 117

    [My wife always says my greatest gift and my greatest curse is to be able to keep a straight face when I’m telling a joke. Some people don’t get them.]

    Very straight indeed. I even went back to make sure you weren’t quoting an actual news report, so well did you capture the robotic cliches and spin. I think I’m a bit more sensitive to that kind of thing – which is why I read the Thomas the Think Engine piece on journalism the other day as tongue in cheek while others still think it’s straight.

    As I said in my previous post on your piece, the main giveaway was the unusually high standard of writing and editorship which, sadly, has long disappeared from today’s msm journalism.

  35. BB

    I think the person if it was not me was saying a “surprise” would be the only way Shorten would forced out of the leadership as he would lose too much support from the party.

    Not that a “surprise” was likely. If it was me commenting bear in mind I don’t think there are going to be any surprises and its all going to be a damp squib as far as media coverage goes

  37. Why should Coalition ministers go on Q&A when Tony Jones has accepted responsibility for putting their case for them?

    That was a very low moment last night… about as low as Jones has ever descended (and that takes some beating).

  38. Kyrgios doesn’t have to be a role model, but it would be admirable if he behaved with a bit of class.
    Federer is a role model to which Nick could learn plenty from.

  40. BB @ 137

    [Why should Coalition ministers go on Q&A when Tony Jones has accepted responsibility for putting their case for them?

    That was a very low moment last night… about as low as Jones has ever descended (and that takes some beating).]

    Absolutely. What I remember most was Jones harassing Marles demanding an answer to his gotcha question time and again and then going totally silent like an adoring acolyte while Larissa Waters expounded the Greens position. And that’s not an attack on the Greens (because Waters was entitled to set out her position without being interrupted constantly) but a full-on attack on the poor quality of journalism and general conduct that Jones displays again and again, with sneering comments and biased interventions in an attempt to capture the next day’s headlines.

  41. RD

    Federer is a role model now. When he was young?

    It may be a problem with Tennis Australia. Not the first Aussie players to complain about the treatment in public. Even young men know that is different than saying something privately.
    Especially with Tomic asking for an investigation. Right or wrong its clear he thinks there is a genuine problem

  42. zoid @ 131

    [I am far from being a troll, you guys best attacking Coalition Party.]

    I think that is what we are trying to get across to you too.

  43. TPOF

    In case I did not make it clear in comments about QandA last night I agree with you about the way Jones did the questioning.

    I think though this may not just be Jones because on Lateline he is reasonable as an interviewer. I think he is getting instructions through an earpiece from the team.

  44. guytaur

    [It may be a problem with Tennis Australia.]

    Disagree! It may be young men and their families thinking their shite doesn’t stink.

  47. [ Greece debt crisis: Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande issue Athens with 24-hour ultimatum to avoid crashing out of the euro

    The eurozone’s two most powerful politicians have brushed aside the resounding No vote in the Greek referendum and told Athens that it has one last chance today to offer a new plan to get its economy in order – and avoid crashing out of the single currency. However, other leaders are losing patience, with the Dutch Prime Minister telling Athens to accept reforms or “it’s over”.

    The unyielding line from the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and French President, François Hollande, came as the European Central Bank tightened the noose around Greece’s tottering lenders by squeezing their liquidity lifeline, ahead of Tuesday’s summit of eurozone leaders.

    The Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, warned Athens that if it does not accept the creditors’ reform demands “it is over”.

    “Did Greeks really think that if they voted No, we would come and ask: ‘how else would you like it?’” he said, adding that his own government was currently unwilling to commit any more funds to Greece.

    Banks in Greece remained closed, with the daily limit on withdrawals of €60 (£42) continuing alongside a ban on taking any cash at all from bank safety deposit boxes. They will not open on Tuesday or Wednesday, officials said. ]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greece-debt-crisis-live-angela-merkel-and-francois-hollande-issue-athens-with-24hour-ultimatum-to-avoid-crashing-out-of-the-euro-10370344.html

  48. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/euro-weakens-before-summit-with-merkel-s-bell-tolling-for-greece

    [The euro slid for a second day versus the dollar as finance ministers and leaders from the 19-member region gather to discuss Greece’s fate.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “time is running out” after Greek voters rejected creditors’ demands for more austerity in a referendum on Sunday. The shared currency declined 0.5 percent versus the dollar Monday, after initially tumbling as much as 1.3 percent, and a measure of volatility rose for a third day. Australia’s dollar approached a six-year low after the Reserve Bank repeated “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary” after holding interest rates at a record low at a policy meeting Tuesday.]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-06/greece-warned

    Countdown for Tsipras….

    [Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was given hours to come up with a plan to keep his country in the euro as citizens endure a second week of capital controls.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “time is running out” as she and French President Francois Hollande, leaders of the two biggest countries in the euro bloc, responded to Sunday’s referendum. The European Central Bank piled on the pressure by making it tougher for Greek banks to access emergency loans. Finance ministers and leaders from the 19-member region gather Tuesday.

    After promising Greek voters a “no” outcome against austerity would strengthen his negotiating hand, the onus is on Tsipras to prove he can get a deal with creditors insistent on tax hikes and spending cuts as the price for a new bailout of Europe’s most indebted nation.

    “The last offer that we made was a very generous one,” Merkel said Monday at the Elysee Palace in Paris. “On the other hand, Europe can only stand together, if each nation takes on its own responsibility.”]

  49. MTBW

    I have said that in the past myself. I just thin instead of jumping to conclusions of bad behaviour by young people its worth looking at the organisation hat is running the sport.

    To me the problem is that these players have reached the point they are complaining in public.
    That means the complaints procedures inside Tennis Australia and their resolution is not working.

    We don’t hear this stuff from American players about their tennis association much even though they have had people like McEnroe go through.

    This is not to excuse the players behaviour in any way. Its to say lets see what is going wrong. Its these same bad boy/girl players that get higher in the rankings.

  50. @TPOF/142

    I attack both parties, but Labor and their supporters need to realize that they are part of the problem, and not the solution.

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