Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research is back at 52-48 after a one week interruption at 53-47, and finds 42% of Coalition voters taking the view that the ABC is biased to the left.

The latest weekly reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average on federal voting intention has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, reverting to type after a blip to 53-47 last week. However, the only change on the primary vote is a one-point drop for the Greens to 10%, with the Coalition steady on 41% and Labor on 39%. Further questions find 22% perceiving the ABC as biased to the left (42% among Coalition voters, and 10% to 13% for the rest), 3% as biased to the right, 36% as biased in neither direction, and fully 40% responding with “don’t know”. Sixty-one per cent of respondents were opposed to Trans Pacific Partnership provisions allowing the government to be sued for policies that cost foreign companies money, with only 10% in support; and 69% thought it likely that same-sex marriage would be allowed in the next few years, compared with only 20% for unlikely. A series of responses on the government’s handling of issues finds it rating positively only on “supporting Australian businesses”, but its stocks have improved markedly since January on all measures except treatment of asylum seekers and environmental issues, with double-digit improvements on health, education and supporting Australian businesses.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,455 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Have to say I loved seeing that leaked video of Bill Shorten talking to his supporters at a Sydney pub. If Bill Shorten could bring out a bit more of that passion when talking to the public (not saying he needs to stand on a soapbox and yell), then he would be very tough to beat.

  7. Just hit my inbox

    Hi Sue —

    You may not have heard of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement. It was recently negotiated in secret and signed by the Abbott Government.

    The fine-print from the agreement has been leaked recently, and it reveals that important safeguards will be removed that currently prevent the importation of asbestos. China is one of the few countries, along with Russia and India, that still use asbestos in building materials and other goods.

    This agreement goes further than any other free trade agreement in Australia’s history.

    Although the agreement has been signed, the Senate still needs to pass enabling legislation.

    Add your name to call on the Senate to block the agreement.

    We need to put pressure on the Senate to let them know that we want important health and safety protections retained.

    http://www.fairgoforcanberra.org.au/china_fta_asbestos?utm_campaign=2chafta_201507&utm_medium=email&utm_source=fairgoforcanberra
    Will you add your name to call on the Senate to block enabling this free trade agreement?

  8. #53
    I remember one section of the NSW Liberals taking the other section of the NSW Liberals to the NSW Supreme Court a few years back over pre-selection differences.

  9. William

    Thanks for that brilliant article.

    I suggest you make it compulsory reading for all of us on this site. We should pass a quiz.

    Seriously for those of us from the Labor side, this was really illuminating.

  10. Victoria

    Re Sutherland

    That is “the Shire” a bastion of white racist prejudice where the Cronulla riots happened a few years ago. It is white, middle class (NOT rich), beaches, sun and suburbia

  11. It seemed to me that Dawn Fraser was being asked her opinion in relation to the poor sportsmanship being shown by the two tennis players. I can’t for the life of me see why she would insert a comment about their father’s ethnic heritage. It was simply a ridiculous answer.

  12. Charlie

    [ can’t for the life of me see why she would insert a comment about their father’s ethnic heritage. It was simply a ridiculous answer.]

    Mad as a meataxe.

  13. [Dawn Fraser was working class Balmain. Sutherland is middle class]

    Nothing unites the classes in Australia like racism. Its Tory politics 101.

    In regards to Liberal factionalism, that book by John Hyde Page provided a great account of the various goings on. The craziness of the right faction supporting republican (and otherwise moderate) Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth over Monarachist (and otherwise conservative) Peter King – who was in turn supported by the Moderates – was one example. The description of one of the right faction branch meetings was also scary.

  14. Gee, I hope this ‘Go back to where you come from’ line does not catch hold.

    I gather 20% of Perth’s present population (or something like it) was actually born in the UK.

    While the Old Dart is great to visit, not a place to call “going home” any more I would think.

    Even those in the EU have better access there than citizens of Oz.

    ‘Frazer?’, ‘Frazer?’ kind of sounds like something from the mists of Bonnie Scotland?

  15. [I can’t for the life of me see why she would insert a comment about their father’s ethnic heritage. It was simply a ridiculous answer.]

    Indeed. That’s why I thought she was out of her tree. She may also have not been aware of his mother’s very different ancestry. Not to mention the fact that while Tomic is seen by some as a chip off his old man’s block, anyone who has ever read about or seen Nick Kirgios’s parents are aware that they are thoughtful, reasonable people and therefore in no way personally deserving of Fraser’s contempt, even if it had not been expressed in such a crude offensive way.

  17. Yo!

    I missed the tail of the last thread and am wondering whether any of the Greensbots who infest PB have finally come to taws on the real issues involved in asylum seekers.
    In particular, have the Greensbots finally nominated:

    (1) The number of asylum seekers they will fly to Australia per annum. (To the nearest hundred thousand would be fine.)

    (2) Whether asylum seekers will be flown in from Africa, the ME and Eurasia.

    (3) How many aircraft will be required.

    (4) Where the asylum seekers will live and who will house them.

    (5) The estimated cost per asylum seeker flown in and settled in Australia.

    (6) What the Greensbots are going to do about asylum seekers who fail their vetting process.

    Bearing in mind that there are only about 50,000,000 potential asylum speakers with scads more being generated everywhere from Burma to Algeria, just when do the Greensbots think they will finally be able to stop weeping and wailing about asylum seekers.

  19. Yep

    If you cannot claim all 4 grand parents and at least 4/8 great-grandparents as Aussie born then you betta go home.

  20. leftwingpinko

    [The craziness of the right faction supporting republican (and otherwise moderate) Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth over Monarachist (and otherwise conservative) Peter King – who was in turn supported by the Moderates – was one example.]

    The person running the local Liberal Party Branch was real piece of work – total duplicity. After that got themselves into some real work trouble and then seems to have disappeared.

  22. My irony meter caught fire this morning while watching a replay of Fraser’s comments.

    A 19 you-old sportsman loses the plot against one of the best, for a whole game of four points. Watching the match, I thought was an effort to get his rhythm back by pummelling a couple.

    But you know, because he’s brown.

    Old lady bigot.

  23. I note that Tsipras has already broken his first promise since the Referendum.

    The Greek banks are still shut.

    Slippery as…

  24. It would be nice if Australia could develop grown up tennis players and grown up prime ministers.

    Forced to make a choice between Kyrgios and Abbott, I would send Abbott back to where his parents came from.

  25. Kirgios was just dumb but it had nothing to do with his ethnic background whatever that may be. It was just really dumb, poor sportsmanship and showing his opponent no respect.

  26. [Kyrgios]

    I saw the press conference. When asked if he’d just let the balls go past I think his body language said it all.

  27. [If Bill Shorten could bring out a bit more of that passion when talking to the public (not saying he needs to stand on a soapbox and yell), then he would be very tough to beat.]

    You can just see the ABC TV News intro to this:

    “First it was a pie shop video, and now it’s a pub.

    As Bill Shorten prepares for the fight of his political life at the Trade Union Royal Commission tomorrow, a leaked video has emerged of Mr Shorten geeing up the troops at a Sydney pub.

    Denouncing the Royal Commission’s investigations into corrupt union dealings, and pre-empting the grilling he is about to receive personally, Mr Shorten told a rowdy crowd of True Believers, that Labor would continue to fight for workers’ rights and a multicultural, rainbow society.

    Earlier in the day Tony Abbott told reporters that Mr Shorten had much more to worry about than gay marriage if recent allegations in Fairfax newspapers were true. While Mr Abbott agreed with Mr Shorten’s general views on multiculturalism, he warned that Labor was soft on border protection and was dragging the chain in the war on terror.

    He said that multiculturalism did not mean unrestricted access to Australia for any illegal entrants who wanted to come here and reflected on the downside of multiculturalism by pointing out that some of the terror arrests made by the AFP in recent months had been of people who came here illegally.

    ROLL: TAPE OF TODAY’S TONY ABBOTT PRESSER

    “The Labor Party still doesn’t get it. Richard Marles last night on Q&A did everything but stand on his head avoiding Tony Jones’ questions on boat turn backs. I say to the Australian people that only my government has stopped the boats – yes, by hook or by crook – and only my government is committed to keeping Australia safe from the Death Cult infiltrating our society.”

    For the public’s reaction to Mr Shorten’s leaked speech, we cross now to Greg Jennett in Western Sydney… Greg, how is Western Sydney reacting to Mr Shorten’s words?

    CUE: LIVE CROSS, WESTERN SYDNEY

    JENNET: Well, Juanita, to say Mr Shorten’s passionate outburst went down like a lead balloon would be unfair to lead balloons… If the people I spoke to in the street here outside Rooty Hill RSL are any guide, Mr Shorten has some explaining to do…

  28. [Forced to make a choice between Kyrgios and Abbott, I would send Abbott back to where his parents came from.]

    Both can go back to where they came from: Canberra and London respectively.

  30. [Please send the half with the budgie smugglers back.]

    Doesn’t really matter which half we keep we end up with an arsehole.

  31. [I saw the press conference. When asked if he’d just let the balls go past I think his body language said it all.]

    What I don’t like about tanking is that it arouses suspicions as to whether the match has been fixed, or if not fixed, just how easy it would be to fix a match under the cover of a petulant outburst.

  32. BB @ 77

    Marvellous. The only thing that showed it was just a spoof and not a real report was the fact that it had clearly been properly edited. No news outlet these days can afford editors.

  33. [What I don’t like about tanking is that it arouses suspicions as to whether the match has been fixed, or if not fixed, just how easy it would be to fix a match under the cover of a petulant outburst.]

    I imagine there would be many easier (and less obvious) ways to throw a tennis match than look like a goose as an ace goes flying past.

  34. [Labor’s Trade spokesperson Penny Wong has been actively pursuing Andrew Robb for details. “Will the Abbott Government honour its promise to maintain labour market testing for 457 visa holders?” she asked last week. “Why has the government abolished mandatory skills assessments for Chinese workers in ten critical occupations?” It is possible for Labor and the minor parties to block the deal in the Senate. But few believe the modern Labor Party will walk away from a free trade deal.

    Andrew Robb rightly points out that Labor pursued the deal throughout its time in government. If Labor wanted to, it could enlist popular opposition against the Investor Facilitation Agreement and use it against the government. It could be a very effective campaign. ]
    – See more at: https://newmatilda.com/2015/07/07/hidden-nasties-australias-new-free-trade-deal#sthash.lFvAdfVQ.dpuf

    This is showing what a clever, sneaky little pollie Robb is. Labor may well have been pursuing the TPP while in government, but it doesn’t mean they were about to say yes to everything in the way Robb apparently is.

    Half-truths are the mainstay of Coalition hits against Labor.

  35. [It would be nice if Australia could develop grown up tennis players…]

    Thanasi Kokkinakis

    [and grown up prime ministers.]

    Can’t help you there.

  36. [30
    zoidlord

    @Briefly/28

    Ah briefly, use the TPOF defense.]

    You mean extending to you the same courtesies usually reserved for TBA? Yeah, that’s it.

  37. I’m laughing at the size of those Life Memberships presented to the Howards. Assumes an expanse of wall big enough to display them. None of your workers’ cottages for Liberals. 😀

  39. To put Greens Party Boy Tsipras in perspective, Greece is only fiddling around with 300 billion euros.

    China’s stock markets are pissing blood by the trillions.

  41. As Dawnie has Legend Status – though I suspect many under 30s would not have a clue who she was other than an old flogger of leg machine junk – she could just about get away with saying anything.

    It still rates as a crass statement though the behaviour was well worth a bucketing.

    The Ugly Australian has been around for a long time and for good or bad, is no worse/better than the ugly Brit/American/Chinese/German or whoever.

    I don’t think poor social behaviour has much to do with race but of course, the race thing just bubbles below the surface for a good many of our fellow citizens.

  42. [31
    TPOF]

    And yet, giving effect to this view means extending the military, paramilitary and extra-legal into the civil domain; it means seizing and trafficking humans into extra-territorial captivity; it means exempting violent crimes from the reach of the law and depriving refugees of their rights to be seen or heard; it means running a gulag; it means that in the gulag political hostages will be housed so we for display for our own amazement our capacity for official cruelty. Really, it means we will celebrate revenge as if it were strength of character.

  43. [China’s stock markets are pissing blood by the trillions.]

    But at least they’re pissing their own blood.

  46. I saw an European finance commentator that the Greeks proposal will need to be closely based on the previous offer to them.

    If not many other EZ govts will need to go back to their parliaments.

    If true not much room to move.

  47. @briefly/86

    Indeed I say the same or if not harsher things to TBA, because Coalition selling Australia to USA.

  48. [77
    Bushfire Bill

    Earlier in the day Tony Abbott told reporters …that Labor was soft on border protection and was dragging the chain in the war on terror.

    He said that multiculturalism did not mean unrestricted access to Australia for any illegal entrants who wanted to come here and reflected on the downside of multiculturalism by pointing out that some of the terror arrests made by the AFP in recent months had been of people who came here illegally.]

    TOPF, here is a technically complete version of your argument, stated by its most vile exponent.

  49. briefly @ 92

    That’s all very good, but the real question is what zoid meant by this comment:

    [Ah briefly, use the TPOF defense.]

    Buggered if I know.

  50. [TOPF, here is a technically complete version of your argument]

    No, it isn’t. The whole post by BB might have been a bit subtle for you though.

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