BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight shift to the Coalition, without offering too much to support the favoured media narrative of the past few weeks.

The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a modest move to the Coalition on the back of slightly stronger results this week from ReachTEL and Roy Morgan, reversing a movement in Labor’s favour last week. It’s also worth noting that the Greens primary vote is up further on what was already a historic high. The quarterly aggregate from Newspoll is among the newly added state-level data, together with unpublished breakdowns from ReachTEL and Essential Research and published ones from Roy Morgan, the combined effect of which is to add one seat to the Coalition tally in each of Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania. The only new leadership result this week was the preferred prime minister reading from ReachTEL, which BludgerTrack doesn’t use because its exclusion of an uncommitted result means it isn’t comparable with other pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. I notice that Happiness is particularly active on PB between 0800 and 1100 Sunday mornings. This effectively shuts down any discussion about either Insiders or the Bolt report. I am guessing that Happiness regards this as her “job” and she isn’t depressingly effective at it.

    I mostly lurk, but I miss the excellent Sun am discussions.

  4. [Losing is Losing and Fairfax Lost. Simples as that.]

    That’s the problem. Winning and losing is not always winning and losing in the law.

    Joe spends 98% of his time and money (and Fairfax’s money) arguing the article is defamatory. He spends 2% of his time and money (and Fairfax’s money) on arguing the tweets are defamatory.

    Joe wins on the tweets, but loses on the article. 98% of his effort (and Fairfax’s money defending itself) needn’t have been spent.

    He doesn’t get all his expenses back, just because he won on the minor matter. Indeed, he may need to pay Fairfax for their time and trouble defending a case that Joe lost.

    That’s how it works. Court is not a gotcha. You don’t win an entire argument – and get the other side to pay for your time and trouble – just because you get a minor point accepted.

    Thus a win is not always a win.

    TruBlueIdiot strikes again!

  5. Mission

    I wonder if there is any evidence by anyone at any time to sustain the idea that the Mad Monk is brave. Y’know, battle-hardy brave, courageous, not dress-up-in-uniform brave.

    Several commentators have written that when it comes to pushing contentious policy through, he goes to water.

  9. [Happiness
    Posted Sunday, July 5, 2015 at 11:39 am | PERMALINK
    lizzie
    …When does Bolt finish? Or start?

    Indeed, it is done (10-11) so I am off.

    Echochamber: ON

    aurevoir Bludgeroonies!]

    The very fact that ML is off to watch one of the most over the top right wing commentators in the country says it all for me.

    I wonder if she gets on to Bolt’s blog afterwards and delivers similar lectures on bias and purity to the ones she peddles here. I think she would get pretty short shrift from that mob.

  11. lizzie

    Marriage equality bill is a case in point. Abbott trying to run a million miles from it. He is a gutless wonder. And a bully to boot

  12. The hypocrisy burns

    [Bevan Shields
    2h2 hours ago
    Bevan Shields ‏@BevanShields
    Scott Morrison on the one hand says Parliament dealing with same-sex marriage would be a distraction, but on the other backs a referendum?]

  13. [Bill
    Bill – ‏@Billablog
    Can’t remember who said this, but if SSM affects your heterosexual marriage, then one of you is gay. #insiders
    4:17 PM – 4 Jul 2015
    38 RETWEETS22 FAVORITES]

  14. Bullies are anything but brave. Bullies just seek out easy targets and pound on them as a demonstration of their might. But when confronted by a determined opponent, bullies tend to back down and run away because they fear the accountability. The problem for us, nobody has sought to take the bully that is Abbott to task or to hold him accountable for some of his words and actions; he has not had anything in the way of an effective adversary either in the media or in the Parliament. I’m sure that will change. We just have to hold out for someone with a bit of courage to step up and take the beating that comes with opposing nationalistic politics.

  15. And yeah – what is with the italics? I feel like I’m citing myself as a reference in an academic paper.

  17. I think I’ve worked out one way in which italics can suddenly intrude.

    The other day I was typing and it autocorrected into capital I, which was ineffective. This may be happening to Bushfire.

  23. Good Afternoon Poll Bludgers

    I have come back here after a few hours to find page after page of childish back and forth and name calling and ridiculous misinterpretation of each other to score a logically bizarre point.

    I can only assume that the blog has been sent berserk by the nonsense being peddled this morning and the italics are to be seen as a desperate cry for help.

  24. psyclaw

    Re Barnyard and “…$s to BOM for better forecasting” . I am sure the rural socialists will appreciate the more accurate forecasting of just how cactus they are going to be.

  27. Joe Hockey may end up being many hundreds of thousands of dollars out of pocket, or maybe even seven figures out of pocket. He won 200,000 in damages for a minor part of the case which did not occupy much of the lawyers’ time. He lost on three substantive points of the case which occupied the vast majority of the lawyers’ time. The court is empowered to award a differential costs order, that is Hockey gets 200,000 in damages and his costs reimbursed for that small part of the case, but he is out of pocket for his own legal bills for the most complex parts of the case. Even worse, he could be ordered to pay Fairfax’s costs for those big parts of the case too.

    What a dumb and expensive thing to do when so little was at stake. “Treasurer for sale” is not an over the top headline. Joe Hockey has behaved in a precious and hypersensitive way for someone with the advantage of a big megaphone to promote his own version of events any time he wants. Under parliamentary privilege, no less.

  31. three possible explanations for ackerman’s population estimates: 1. He really is stuck in the 1950s. 2. he has not counted anyone not of pure anglo heritage. 3. abbott just stripped citizenship from anyone whose meta-data suggests will not vote for him at the next election.

  34. @STPPOL: Australian #coal turned back from China as it’s failed new quality thresholds #AustraliansForCoal #auspol #climate #ClimCrim #MakeCoalPay

  41. [Re Barnyard and “…$s to BOM for better forecasting” . I am sure the rural socialists will appreciate the more accurate forecasting of just how cactus they are going to be.]

    cactus farming may be their best option

  42. shea mcduff @ 1595

    [http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/doubting-thomas.html

    Highly recommended reading.
    Very highly.]

    I said the other day that Elder could be hit and miss. This one misses entirely. And what it misses is the very gentle but caustic satire in the Thomas the Think Engine blog piece that he takes apart. Like all great satire, it is as much the vibe as it is the actual words – but the views that Elder is ascribing to Thomas it seems to me are Thomas pretending to be sympathetic to the press gallery but in fact is holding their very ideas up to ridicule.

    For example, Elder quotes this paragraph:

    [The story, told by veteran journalist Sarah Ferguson, will scoop the pool at the Walkleys – the journalism industry’s own award night.]

    But the sting is in the last few words – ‘the journalism industry’s own award night’. In other words, an orgy of self-congratulation as any industry’s self-awards night is. How often does the Walkley go to the biggest scoop or hit or impact (good or bad), rather than to the story that has the greatest benefit for the community?

    Another example:

    [The political journalist’s job is absurdly stressful and difficult. I doubt many people could imagine how precious time is for a working journalist. Deadlines don’t just loom. They crash down. There is scarcely time for typing, let alone time for reflection.]

    Elder is incredibly outraged by the sheer effrontery of the suggestion that overwork excuses all poor journalism – as he should be. But that is the Thomas’s point in presenting this self-serving justification for anything goes and please excuse the mistakes journalism. I imagine this is what journalists tell each other as they down their fifteenth beer at the pub commiserating on how they all have such hard jobs these days with media cutbacks etc. They don’t tell the public that because even they have the sense to know that it would make them look stupid.

    But this is the giveaway. Thomas writes:

    [But it omitted a major angle. The role of the media in the downfall of two Prime Ministers.

    This could be simply a matter of editing. Trying to fit months of excitement into an hour of TV means things must be skimmed over.]

    To me, this is obvious sarcasm. In a program purporting to represent an accurate representation of events, as TKS did, you don’t cry time poor to cut out a critical, even fundamental, element to the story.

    But Elder treats it like this:

    [ “But it omitted a major angle. The role of the media in the downfall of two Prime Ministers.”

    I would have reviewed those two episodes very keenly for such an angle, and regard this as a spoiler that no such angle exists. No wonder she’s up for a Walkley. You only win a Walkley in two ways: a) gushing about the Australian media, or b) morosely comparing every wanker who rehashes PR emissions to Peter Greste.

    Thomas raises an important point, but starts making excuses in the very next paragraph:

    “Trying to fit months of excitement into an hour of TV means things must be skimmed over.”

    In three hours (not one) you can get across the salient points. That sentence offers yet more proof that whenever a journalist lapses into the passive voice, they are up to no good.]

    Perhaps the most salient part of Elder’s article was at the end of the very first paragraph where he describes Thomas as a ‘joker’. To my mind that is exactly what he was, but it went over Elder’s head.

    For all that, both articles are worth reading, although Elder gets very tedious in his outrage. Just remember to ensure your tongue stays planted firmly in your cheek when you read the Thomas article. Then it will be highly enjoyable.

  43. guytaur

    Re our coal to China . Three things that may add up problems coming for Australia

    1)In the last 6 months China has signed a couple of gas deals with Russia worth about US$750 Billion .

    1)Back when CPRS MkI was the go Barnyard , Minchin and the ‘usual suspects’ shouted about China doing nothing and opening a new coal fired power station per week. Of course they did not mention that they were replacing inefficient old ones or the number of gas fired ones.

    3)With the rise of the middle class there is a rapidly growing unwillingness to put up with air pollution.

  44. [The CBI has issued a call on eurozone leaders to quickly resolve the Greek debt crisis, whatever the outcome of Sunday’s referendum, after the British business group’s latest poll highlighted mounting pressure on exporters.

    The lobby group said its surveys of more than 750 companies across the manufacturing, retail and service sectors suggested UK economic growth lost momentum last month.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/04/uk-exporters-feeling-the-heat-from-eurozone-crisis

  45. Roman is nice, not so much Verdana. All in all Italics is not all it’s cracked up to be, except from the arial. I know, a bold statement, and I need to underline it my saying it’s just my opinion. Give me the Swiss any day.

  47. Not sure about that TPOF. By that reading everything published in any Murdoch newspaper is just satire with the likes of Piers, Blot, and Albrechtson the biggest piss takers in print.

  48. ratsak

    You might be on to something. Maybe a nomination for satirist of the year for one of them would sort it out

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