It’s been a big week for federal opinion polling, with Ipsos adding its voice to the regular fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and the weekly Essential Research. The results are sharply polarised, with Ipsos and Morgan coming in weak for the government and Newspoll and Essential being fairly strong. The BludgerTrack aggregate reads this a slight move to Labor, which consolidates a shift in their favour last week. However, there has been no change on the seat projection this time around, with gains for Labor in New South Wales and Victoria counterbalanced by losses in Queensland and Western Australia. Newspoll and Ipsos both provide new numbers for leadership approval, on which both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten record substantial downturns for net approval. However, since this was driven by somewhat peculiar numbers from Newspoll’s swansong, I’d reserve my judgement on that for the time being.
BludgerTrack’s current two-party preferred reading of 52.1% for Labor is a bit lower than the other players in the poll aggregation game just at the moment, with Kevin Bonham and Phantom Trend both having it at 52.4%, and Mark the Ballot being even further out at 52.7%. Our relative weightings for Newspoll and Ipsos may have had something to do with this, but another factor will have been that only BludgerTrack has Essential Research’s weekly samples as separate data points, since Bonham and Phantom Trend have only the published fortnightly rolling average, and Mark the Ballot drops the pollster altogether. You may infer from that that this week’s result was on the strong side for the Coalition.
Also of note:
• Draft boundaries of a redistribution for the Northern Territory parliament have been published, which Antony Green considers in detail. The big change is the effective abolition of the Alice Springs seat of Araluen to make way for the new seat of Spillett in the north of Darwin’s growing satellite city of Palmerston. This has already had political ramifications, as Araluen MP Robyn Lambley cited it as one of her reasons for quitting the Country Liberal Party yesterday to sit as an independent, having intimated that the redistribution has singled her out for special treatment.
• The Lowy Institute has published its annual poll encompassing attitudes towards a wide range of foreign policy issues, which was conducted between February and May from a combined sample of around 6000 respondents by Newspoll and I-view, the latter being a part of Ipsos. Among many other things, respondents were asked to give the government marks out of ten across eight issues, producing a strong 7.1 average for “maintaining a strong alliance with the United States” (if that be deemed a good thing), a fairly healthy 5.9 for “responding to the threat of terrorism”, a perhaps surprisingly soft 4.9 for “handling the arrival of asylum seekers by boat”, another 4.9 for “managing Australia’s economy”, and a low 4.0 for “managing the issue of climate change”.
• The Lowy poll also found concern over climate change at its highest level of 2008, the potential electoral ramifications of which I considered in an article for Crikey yesterday. I had another subscriber-only Crikey piece on Friday which took a careful look at Essential Research data concerning perceptions of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten.
Wasn’t Ian McDonald the MP who wanted northern Qld to split as a separate state?
briefly
I agree with what your are saying regarding unity in the face of Abbott at 149. Just remember that is a two way street.
trog
They may have been cannibals but Neanderthals also invented western music as we know it. They found a bone with the classical 8 note scale.
Player one
As i said, if the reasons sighting Shorten to step down are due to “revelations” so far, it is so ridiculous.
DN
Labor does not mirror the government on everything – it chooses its battlegrounds, which is exactly what an Opposition should do.
Most of the “Labor sell out” memes are based on misunderstanding of the legislation, which is over hyped (particularly by the Greens, also perfectly understandable).
Bipartisanship between governments and oppositions is the norm. Well over 90% of legislation sails through both Houses on that basis.
Just as anyone can be made to look silly* by taking comments out of context, so any legislation can be made to look Teh Evil if it is misrepresented.**
* Not referring to our conflab the other day, typed that before I rememebered!
**My son has done more work on his metadata piece, and says that the more he looks at the legislation, the less scarier it actually is. For example, the metadata retained on internet usage is simply the times you logged in and out.
If Fairfax has a problem with Unions, then they should be lauding Shorten not asking for his resignation. He did a deal that benefited Thiess John Holland to the tune of $100m and, according to Tony Tony Shepherd of all people, the deal delivered one of the highest rates of pay for workers for any project. This isn’t even close to journalism; it’s sensationalism without the sensation.
[Fairfax consider themselves players. That pretty much explains everything.]
Remember who the Political Editor of the SMH is: Peter Hartcher.
Hartcher wears his heart on his sleeve about politics. He wants to be a player, and was at one time, when Rudd was agitating for a return to the PMship.
He was also the journalist who penned the story about Rudd checking up on Gillard, the one that got under Gillard’s goat and started the ball rolling. That would have been great for Hartcher’s ego.
With Abbott, he hasn’t done so well. He started off back in late 2013 (yes, I have a long memory for stupidity) telling his readers that they should believe Tony Abbott’s claims that he was all for action on climate Change.
Why?
Because he said the words.
We now know that Abbott is severely antagonistic to any Climate Change mitigation policy, and always has been, because he said the words only last week, to Alan Jones.
Have we seen a mea culpa from Hartcher?
No.
Despite being ignored by Abbott, Hartcher has persisted, giving him unsolicited advice on all kinds of policy areas, from a strategy to turn around the misuse of parliamentary entitlements scandal, to how to deal with Indonesia (Hartcher is Foreign Affairs editor, too).
All of which has been completely ignored.
Hartcher shat in his own nest by joining the wrong bandwagon a few months ago, when Abbott’s leadership looked like it was in trouble. Hartcher spewed it all out, a lover scorned, his adolescent crush on Abbott (or whoever in power has the ability to make him a player) spurned.
He blew that one, big time.
Now, as Political Editor of the SMH, he is running a “Get Shorten” campaign, with the full monty: “investigative” journalism (most of which is available on the public record anyway), sly innuendo regarding Shorten’s perfectly proper negotiation of a win-win deal between a major constructor and the AWU that saw the unprecedented early completion of a giant project, preposterous demands that Shorten pre-empt his Royal Commission testimony by discussing what Hartcher thinks are “questions that need to be answered”, and ridiculous speculation that Shorten’s leadership is threatened.
There have been no internal leaks about Shorten. There is no agitation that Hartcher can muster to aid his case. New Labor rules themselves prohibit the kind of “Killing Season” putsch so beloved of political hacks (never get between Peter Hartcher and a tired, worn-out old cliche).
Combine the “Killing Season” (both the season itself and the TV progam about it), with the inconvenient fact that Shorten has done nothing wrong except do what hacks like Hartcher are always demanding unionists do, and the further inconvenient fact that under the rules it’d take a crow-bar to lever Shorten out in the next few days, and what does Hartcher have to make do with?
A piss-weak, ill-conceived, and completely ineffectual call for Shorten to “step down”. THAT is the best Hartcher can summonn from his bully pulpit.
All this is to try and curry favour back with Tony Abbott. I have little doubt that Hartcher has been told that if he wants to get back on the drip he needs to demonstrate his worthiness.
“Why not run a ‘Get Shorten’ campaign, Pete? That might swing it.”
If Hartcher, a supposedly savvy political commentator thinks Tony Abbott will ever forget what Hartcher has written about him in the past, then he is a moron. If he thinks that Abbott’s word is worth even a bent penny, he is unfit to be the political editor of a Facebook page, much less the Political Editor of Sydney’s newspaper of record (or whatever they style themselves as nowadays).
Abbott never forgets, and never forgives. Hartcher’s toadying will never convince Abbott of anything, other than Hartcher’s diminished potential as a fag running errands for the senior bullies in the school playground.
Andrew Elder put it well in his (faux?) application for a gig as a political writer for the Huff Post (Australia):
[“Never believe anything Peter Hartcher says. He is always wrong.”]
The SMH is running a bootstrap campaign on Shorten. A couple of phoney shock/horror articles (“Union leaders do not go on strike or send employers broke… SCANDAL!”), with an ominous promise of more to come, has been one-upped with a typical Hartcher premature ejaculation, recommending Shorten “stand down”. Bash Bill with a feather, Pete!
They couldn’t even wait until their own shit sheet was fully in place, before revealing the punch line.
Hartcher really believes in The Killing Season. He’s suddenly realized he only has a few days to go until the winter hibernation sets in. He’s put out feelers both to Abbott, obsequiously and dutifully sidling up to his better nature (of which there is none… and Hartcher should know this if he knows anything at all), and to any potential recalcitrants in Labor to dish the dirt on their Leader.
But The Killing Season is a figment of Hartcher’s imagination. The glory days when he could go front page in late June and cause a stir are long, long gone.
From Katharine Murphy at the Guardian – channelling Phil Coorey:
[Phil Coorey from The Australian Financial Review has businessman Tony Shepherd defending the Labor leader Bill Shorten over The Age story I referenced earlier today, saying the deal he negotiated to build the EastLink road delivered workers one of the highest rates of pay of any project.]
Abbott is very good at destroying people with smear. Here is a political sham star chamber a few smears and supposed thinkers and ‘progressives’ calling for execution. I don’t need to laugh at you Abbott is.
Labor needs to think this through very carefully. If Abbott and the pot plants intellects who have fallen for his star chamber (even before it has published its partisan tripe which will come) bring down Shorten after a few months Abbott will be ready to go to an election based on ‘more labor chaos’. If he was really ready he could effectively force labor to either have a caretaker leader through the election or have to junk the popular members ballot.
I’m of a view the best chance is for shorten to voluntarily go and a single camdidate take over to popular acclaim. I’d like Penny Wong.
None of this is based on the liberal trolls who wrongly say he is doing badly (he has done brilliantly poll wise) it is solely based on the pot plant intellects who’ve come out against Shorten in the last couple of days.
Re the RET the industry was being wiped out and they screamed for this compromise. The greens inability to see this is as culpable as their falling for Abbott’s transparent fake to progressive deep inside his pensioner v pensioner plan. As I said the other night if you sit still and quiet you can hear the most regressive government that you are supporting laughing at you.
[Hartcher wears his heart on his sleeve about politics.]
Sorry BB – that is a ridiculously kind description. Hartcher will brown nose any politician who gives him a leak or appoints him to be their leaksperson. He is OK on foreign affairs. On anything else, he is the epitome of what is wrong with political journalism (or at least what is passed off as political journalism) in this country.
BB
You always come up with a cogent argument. Thanks muchly. 🙂
TPOF
If the editorial was written by Hartcher, I do feel a little better 😀
TS..
Shorten has stated categorically that Labor will take a market based carbon price to the next election.. a considerable political risk. Mark Butler has made it crystal clear that the RET will be increased when Labor are next in Govt..
He has also confirmed that Labor will go after multi-national tax evasion & superannuation tax rorts for wealthy Australians. Again at considerable political risk.
Labor are also differentiating themselves from this Govt by stating they will not support the draconian citizen stripping laws ..also at considerable political risk.
How are you defending Labor’s suite of socially, environmentally and economically progressive policies?
..why, by jumping ship and joining the impotent armchair critics of Labor ..aka the Greens.
[However, I would still opt for the simpler explanation – i.e. that the SMH is just looking to sell some papers.]
There’s an even simpler explanation. Most journalists are simpletons. Wouldn’t know their arse from a hole in the ground. Certainly wouldn’t have enough nouse to see a good solid workplace agreement that delivers wins for the business, the workers and the union all at the same time from a rort if the Libs dirt unit is telling them it’s a rort.
There’s rarely been a stick an Australian journalist hasn’t picked the wrong end of.
I wonder if it’s occurred to Mr Robb that there are reasons why the tropics aren’t hubs of development?
zoom
[Labor does not mirror the government on everything – it chooses its battlegrounds, which is exactly what an Opposition should do.]
I wasn’t making a value judgement. This is the context of national security legislation, and my point about mirroring still stands. It’s not free as some talk here would suggest.
[My son has done more work on his metadata piece, and says that the more he looks at the legislation, the less scarier it actually is. For example, the metadata retained on internet usage is simply the times you logged in and out.]
I personally think the fears over metadata retention are exaggerated. However I also don’t think it should be considered in isolation from other pieces of legislation.
Douglas and Milko
[I am guessing that this will include preference deals with the LNP, Di Natale is making noises about moving in this direction.]
Possibly, and if and when it occurs it could have a negative effect on the overall left vote. But I maintain, that the prime motivation must be to advance strong and correct policy.
Oh I see. It’s a flag for each speaker on the Northern Dream.
BB
[The SMH is running a bootstrap campaign on Shorten. A couple of phoney shock/horror articles (“Union leaders do not go on strike or send employers broke… SCANDAL!”), with an ominous promise of more to come, has been one-upped with a typical Hartcher premature ejaculation, recommending Shorten “stand down”. Bash Bill with a feather, Pete!
They couldn’t even wait until their own shit sheet was fully in place, before revealing the punch line.]
That is precisely what got me so bloody confused!!
DN
[ This is the context of national security legislation, and my point about mirroring still stands..]
Which piece/s of legislation are we talking about, then? My understanding is that Labor, rather than mirroring the current proposals, are refusing to endorse them because they haven’t been briefed on them.
“I’m of a view the best chance is for shorten to voluntarily go and a single camdidate take over to popular acclaim. I’d like Penny Wong.”
WOW!!! …simply lost for words ..that tripe indicates a seriously disturbed mind!!
Why don’t they fast-track visas for asylum seekers to work in the north, then?
Me thinks Shorten got the better deal here. 😀
Oops
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/national/clique/the-annual-politicians-midwinter-ball-20150617-ghq9lb.html?aggregate=&selectedImage=1
[Most journalists are simpletons. Wouldn’t know their arse from a hole in the ground]
I wouldn’t know their arse from a hole in the ground either.
markjs @162
[..why, by jumping ship and joining the impotent armchair critics of Labor ..aka the Greens.]
I didn’t jump ship – it was a careful disembarkation.
What few seem to take into account is the rapid contraction of the political cycle. SSM, renewable energy, networking – we are moving into a period of violent change. Today’s political hard sell, if evidence, not ideology, based will be perfectly viable tomorrow.
Politicians need to have strong policies and be prepared to act decisively.
zoom
It really doesn’t matter which legislation. The point is mirroring doesn’t come free.
But, if you insist: Whistleblower legislation, metadata retention, this government’s methodology on boats, and “in principle support” for citizenship revocation.
However, if we’re going to list them explicitly, then let me make it absolutely clear that this is in the context of fairfax’s complaints, and public perception, not necessarily mine.
This is reflected in complaints that Labor is the same as the Coalition. I don’t think this is particularly fair, but there’s no point arguing with me about it, and I think Labor should ask why people say that rather than simply dismiss them.
di Natale and Morrison.
The odd couple?
So the allegation against Shorten is that he negotiated a workplace agreement that the company loved because it ended up making them $100mil, that the workers loved because they got paid more than pretty much any project and gained the flexibility to take half their RDOs when it suited them, and the union loved because it got the company to pay for some training and to pay for their member’s dues rather than coming out of the workers pockets. I assume the government involved also loved the deal as the project got delivered well ahead of schedule and the industrial commission if not loving the deal thought nothing of ratifying it as a proper example of how workplace negotiation should occur.
And this is a ‘FAIL’?
Imagine what Bill could do if he were to ‘FAIL’ similarly in the role of PM?
So Mr di Natale thinks he has made a vital change to the $50 billion superannuation tax rorts by increasing the amount of talk about it?
He seems to believe it, too.
[
113
briefly
Hardly a day passes without some Green-Labor squabbling. {snip} Nothing good can come from it. Nothing.
]
The offenders are not listening, never have, never will, on their fervent march to a pure noble glorious defeat.
Sigh.
bw
😆
No one is buying that spin. Not even Murdoch press that vowed to destroy the Greens at the ballot box.
[WOW!!! …simply lost for words ..that tripe indicates a seriously disturbed mind!!]
Thanks. Clearly words aren’t your thing and you’d have been better off with even fewer of them, none would have been insightful. But given your contentless abuse perhaps you could do me the favour of putting a few words together to explain your conclusion.
perhaps you think Abbott will just let it go
Perhaps you think the royal commission will completely clear shorten before any political damage
Perhaps you think those progressives and intellectuals who’ve come out against shorten the last few days will have a road to Damascus moment and retract their stupidity
Perhaps you think the media will hold fire until after shorten had appeared and the star chamber makes its findings
I accept there are lots of reasons that I could be wrong and very happy to discuss these ways I could be wrong, think you can get a few words together ?
No mention that they are taking any effects of AGW into consideration. I know that the tropics will be less affected than the south, but still…
TS..
None of what you (and I) desire in policy implementation will come to pass unless and until Labor vanquishes the evil regime currently destroying our country..
Your highly moral attitude will not do the job. The hard, dirty politics of the extreme right will only be defeated by hard, clever politics from the left..
Shorten knows this and is playing a very intelligent political game ..Greens are just opportunistically picking off voters who prefer soft & fuzzy idealism over the hard & currently brutal reality.
I consider myself as progressive as you ..I just understand that evil needs to be dealt with intelligently & strategically. That’s what Shorten is doing, and doing well.
“@BevanShields: PM confirms citizenship legislation will not be going back to full meeting of the cabinet #auspol
Know a few ministers who won’t like that”
ratsak @ 178
I’ll take more of that kind of failure please.
WWP @ 182..
See my post at 184..
“@latikambourke: PM Abbott now saying that Labor’s concerns about unconstitutionality equates to ‘rolling out the red carpet’ for terrorists.”
Wow just wow
guytaur
Why is that wow? We all knew he would say it.
Just Me
[ The offenders are not listening, never have, never will, on their fervent march to a pure noble glorious defeat.
Sigh. ]
Indeed. It’s terribly depressing.
Mr di Natale is about to do a Greens backflip on fuel indexation.
It is not clear whether the original decision by the Greens was evidence based.
Or whether the backflip will be evidence based.
I do hope that Mr di Natale remembers that politicians need to have strong policies and be prepared to act decisively.
guytaur
Abbott is getting desperate. Obviousy this includes those in his own cabinet then
zoom
Also, you are absolutely correct that even on national security issues, Labor has not been in lockstep recently.
A lot of what fairfax are going off are old or already existing complaints.
DN
Its one thing to kind of expect it. Its another to get the reality of him actually saying it.
[ “@latikambourke: PM Abbott now saying that Labor’s concerns about unconstitutionality equates to ‘rolling out the red carpet’ for terrorists.” ]
So presumably Turnbull and the other ministers who have concerns are doing the same?
[Politicians need to have strong policies and be prepared to act decisively.]
When politicians have strong policies that the public will not wear then the only decisive action left to them is to petulantly stride off into political irrelevancy.
(and complaints that Labor’s recent breaks with the Coalition have been too weak)
player one
I havent watched presser, but has anyone pointed that out to the Abbott?
I wonder why we are seeing such a ramp up in the idiocy of both our PM and media this week? Is there something worrying Abbott that we don’t yet know about?