Later than usual on this one because the only pollster to report this week, Essential Research, moved its schedule back a day because of the public holiday. Essential’s voting intention numbers, which you can see detailed below, are characteristically stable, and the movements in the leadership ratings are almost perfectly on trend. As such, the only movement to report is a 0.3% shift to Labor on two-party preferred. However, this has had more impact on the seat projection than you might have thought, since several states are currently on the precipice of one result or another. Labor is accordingly up a seat in Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania, returning it to majority government territory.
Also:
• The aforesaid Essential Research poll showed Labor leading 52-48 for the fifth successive week. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (steady), 40% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 1% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, providing yet another improvement for Tony Abbott with approval up three to 39% and disapproval down four to 50%, while Bill Shorten was respectively steady on 32% and up four to 45%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister was 38-33, up from 35-32 a month ago.
• The poll also found remarkably strong support for revoking citizenship on grounds of terrorism, although this is clearly a case where question design has a lot to do with the response that is elicited. The headline findings of 81% approval and 9% disapproval in the case of dual nationals, and 73% approval and 13% disapproval in the case of sole nationals, presupposed that the suspect was guilty as charged. A follow-up question allowed respondents to choose between a court of law and a government minister in making the determination, with 54% favouring the former and 24% favouring the latter.
• The Mercury had a Tasmanian state ReachTEL poll on the weekend, which I didn’t write up because it was barely a week since the EMRS poll. It was a strong result for the Hodgman government, putting the Liberals on 48.5%, Labor on 29.9% and the Greens on 15.8%, compared with March 2014 election results of 51.2%, 27.3% and 13.8%. ReachTEL’s result helpfully features breakdowns by electorate. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a big sample of 2646.
• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that former NSW Premier Morris Iemma has “told Labor Party players in south-west Sydney that he will contest preselection for Barton”, and that “his name is also in the mix for the neighbouring seat of Banks”. Both seats were lost by Labor at the 2013 federal election, and there were suggestions Iemma might run in Barton as early as 2011. Others named as contenders for Barton are Rockdale mayor Shane O’Brien, Electrical Trades Union organiser Mark Buttigieg and Hurstville councillor Brent Thomas. Thomas is also named as a possible starter in Banks, together with Jason Yat-Sen Li, a high-profile figure in the Chinese community who ran for Labor in Bennelong in 2013 and as the lead Senate candidate of the Unity party in 1998.
I’ve slept in a wind farm for two weeks in Hawaii in 1990 – absolutely shattered by the end of that stint.
victoria:
LOL.
I think Abbott just tells audiences whatever he thinks they want to hear. Very far from prime ministerial.
Of all the things that annoy me about the Coalition, this attempt to define wind turbines as ‘ugly’ really gets my goat!
A couple of years ago, I did a post-graduate course in Chemical Engineering. One of the units I studied was Fluid Mechanics, and on the cover of the test book was a photo of … (drum roll) a wind farm!!
It is a perfect example of something that would be totally anathema to Abbott: a university science text, featuring renewable energy, And one of the authors is a graduate of Istanbul Technical University! I would be enough to make Abbott’s head explode!
cc,
There’s a difference between you talking to people and them then ignoring you which seems to be your lot in life, comrade.
There are 3 windfarms all within a 50km radius of each other where I live. I hear the brouhaha from over east about windfarms and wonder what the fuss is all about.
mikehilliard
With Tony’s ” must answer questions” of Shorten perhaps we should ” must answer questions” about his indecent assault charges ?
[The Age newspaper today reported that Mr Abbott was charged with indecent assault 27 years ago when he was a 20-year-old university student leader. ]
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/07/18/1090089019406.html
[I’ve slept in a wind farm for two weeks in Hawaii in 1990 – absolutely shattered by the end of that stint.]
OK. You’ve convinced me. Nobody could think like you unless they have had their brains addled by something.
Got a windfarm over the back fence. I think they are a beautiful think. Noise’ nope; dead birds littering the ground nope. Abbotts a fool.
It’s pretty clear now that Bill Shorten will have to front the royal commission to clear the air as they say. I hope faulty memory isn’t an issue for him.
poroti
[The newspaper also revealed Mr Abbott bent a street sign while celebrating after his final year economics exam]
Well, he’s certainly moved on to bend a few things related to economics. Wish he’d just stuck to street signs, unlike peoples livelihoods they are more replaceable.
poroti – see your acquittal of indecent assault and raise you an alleged rape by Shorten.
You want to keep going?
Maybe delve into Shorten’s first marriage or Gillard’s taste in married men?
ESJ, I remain curious about your assertion regarding Brian Burke’s election prediction record.
Seems Compact Crank wants the senate to blindly rubber stamp anything from the HoR.
Wonder if he’d feel the same if Labor had a majority in the house ?
CC,
People today seem more interested in Abbott’s first marriage and his taste in married men.
Abbott got on the P after Uni Exams and bent a sign? OMG?
He wasn’t trying hard enough if that’s all he can lay claim to.
Seems Edwina StJohn is happy to cheer this Govt on, despite their doubling of the debt.
Rex – I fully concur with PJK – unrepresentative swill. The sooner it is disbanded, the better.
Abbott couldn’t give a toss about windmills, beyond figuring out what position on it scores him the most votes.
ESJ
[It’s pretty clear now that Bill Shorten will have to front the royal commission to clear the air as they say. I hope faulty memory isn’t an issue for him.]
I’m guessing Shorten’s memory will be on a par with Dolly Downer’s at the AWB RC.
[I’ve slept in a wind farm for two weeks in Hawaii in 1990 – absolutely shattered by the end of that stint.]
Try a bed next time
Seems Compact Crank just doesn’t like scrutiny.
Wonder why… ?
Under Tony Abbott there will be no more scenery pron.
https://twitter.com/jwwr/status/608850438373265408/photo/1
Just Me
[Abbott couldn’t give a toss about windmills, beyond figuring out what position on it scores him the most votes.]
Yep, wonder why he’s having a go. Must be something to do with the imminent collapse of coal fired power stations, you have to blame someone other than your own convictions that “coal is good”.
Just Me
Abbott’s ‘opinion’ on wind farms is solely down to his desire to frottage Jones and the 2GB demographic.
I am not sure how to react to Abbott’s wind-farm pronouncements.
Obviously my opinion of him must go down.
I just can’t decide whether he is more stupid than I had thought or just more evil.
JW,
It’s a windmill comrade.
The options all come up at regular intervals.
I’d say it’s more likely that there are a lot of vested interests against renewables such as wind and solar – many of whom support politicians like Abbott, rather than mere pandering.
For an antidote to all those hacks in print or on the air:
[http://junkee.com/how-malevolent-buffoonery-became-the-new-normal-of-australian-leadership/59037}
Ooops! hit shift key at wrong time
[http://junkee.com/how-malevolent-buffoonery-became-the-new-normal-of-australian-leadership/59037]
I must be tired
http://junkee.com/how-malevolent-buffoonery-became-the-new-normal-of-australian-leadership/59037
[Abbott’s ‘opinion’ on wind farms is solely down to his desire to frottage Jones and the 2GB demographic.]
My own view is that he just gets lulled into JonesLand, a place where Alan is always right, never wrong, and things said in JonesLand, stay in JonesLand! Some of Abbott’s most ridiculous remarks have come from 2GB interviews.
phylactella
The photo at the top of the article is perfect for the headline.
Looking a for areal job that pays good money, here’s an idea.
http://junkee.com/labor-are-trolling-joe-hockeys-office-with-applications-for-a-good-job-that-pays-good-money/59091?
Rex – nothing to do with scrutiny. UK, NZ and QLD plus all local councils Operate well without the interference our unrepresentative swill cause.
[his desire to frottage Jones]
😯
{Reaches for industrial strength mind bleach.}
How did the ALP let the gormless git on The Nation this evening?
More please.
Are the ex-Rudd/Gillard advisors all planning their 30th Birthdays soon?
Calling someone dumb is now sexist, apparently.
Gotta love identity politics.
Why isn’t it racist, too?
Just Me
Is it possible to engage in frottage with a barge pole?
As many have already pointed out, Shorten is looking like the Australian Ed Miliband
[Must be something to do with the imminent collapse of coal fired power stations, you have to blame someone other than your own convictions that “coal is good”.]
Today I shall be reading from the Book Of Abbott:
1:1 It is always somebody else’s fault.
[Is it possible to engage in frottage with a barge pole?]
I would recommend a triple layer Hazmat suit as well.
BK,
It will be if they introduce SSM.
http://www.bbk.ac.uk/news/unemployment-being-rebranded-as-a-psychological-disorder
You can see where this is going.
At last, I have identified a post Parliamentary career for Tony Abbott. Nobel Science Lauriat.
http://time.com/3915617/women-science-tim-hunt-nobel-sexist/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+time%2Ftopstories+%28TIME%3A+Top+Stories%29
Is there a citations policy now William?
Bree
[As many have already pointed out, Shorten is looking like the Australian Ed Miliband]
It’s a shame that Abbott looks nothing like the comparatively intelligent and urbane David Cameron.
ESJ,
Only for convicted liars like you!
GG – after your little legal indiscretions ?
Why did you lose your practising certificate GG ?