BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

Only slight movement on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, but it’s enough to put Labor back into majority government territory on the seat projection.

Later than usual on this one because the only pollster to report this week, Essential Research, moved its schedule back a day because of the public holiday. Essential’s voting intention numbers, which you can see detailed below, are characteristically stable, and the movements in the leadership ratings are almost perfectly on trend. As such, the only movement to report is a 0.3% shift to Labor on two-party preferred. However, this has had more impact on the seat projection than you might have thought, since several states are currently on the precipice of one result or another. Labor is accordingly up a seat in Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania, returning it to majority government territory.


• The aforesaid Essential Research poll showed Labor leading 52-48 for the fifth successive week. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (steady), 40% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 1% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, providing yet another improvement for Tony Abbott with approval up three to 39% and disapproval down four to 50%, while Bill Shorten was respectively steady on 32% and up four to 45%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister was 38-33, up from 35-32 a month ago.

• The poll also found remarkably strong support for revoking citizenship on grounds of terrorism, although this is clearly a case where question design has a lot to do with the response that is elicited. The headline findings of 81% approval and 9% disapproval in the case of dual nationals, and 73% approval and 13% disapproval in the case of sole nationals, presupposed that the suspect was guilty as charged. A follow-up question allowed respondents to choose between a court of law and a government minister in making the determination, with 54% favouring the former and 24% favouring the latter.

• The Mercury had a Tasmanian state ReachTEL poll on the weekend, which I didn’t write up because it was barely a week since the EMRS poll. It was a strong result for the Hodgman government, putting the Liberals on 48.5%, Labor on 29.9% and the Greens on 15.8%, compared with March 2014 election results of 51.2%, 27.3% and 13.8%. ReachTEL’s result helpfully features breakdowns by electorate. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a big sample of 2646.

Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that former NSW Premier Morris Iemma has “told Labor Party players in south-west Sydney that he will contest preselection for Barton”, and that “his name is also in the mix for the neighbouring seat of Banks”. Both seats were lost by Labor at the 2013 federal election, and there were suggestions Iemma might run in Barton as early as 2011. Others named as contenders for Barton are Rockdale mayor Shane O’Brien, Electrical Trades Union organiser Mark Buttigieg and Hurstville councillor Brent Thomas. Thomas is also named as a possible starter in Banks, together with Jason Yat-Sen Li, a high-profile figure in the Chinese community who ran for Labor in Bennelong in 2013 and as the lead Senate candidate of the Unity party in 1998.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,419 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

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  1. While it’s only Ipsos, that’s a really nice move back in their poll for Labor.

    Wonder how it’s going to be spun. Hockey or Abbott/Dutton’s fault? (Or not worth reporting because it doesn’t fit the narrative…)

  2. Jake:

    Thanks. I bet Hockey and the govt wish he could take back that advice to prospective home owners in Sydney.

  3. davidwh:

    After the last failed attempt at bringing on a leadership spill, and the way they’ve all cowed behind Abbott, I seriously doubt anyone in the Liberal partyroom would have the guts to try again. Unless front benchers start resigning en masse which would be highly unlikely.

  4. davidwh@2397

    When will they dump him?

    Tomorrow would be really spiffy.

    Redux an oldie but a goodie –

    [ Have you heard the one about the Liberal supporter who is said to be proud to have Mr Abbott as leader?


    Keep looking. ]

  5. To think this poll was done before paying the people smuggler allegations were aired in the MSM.


    Yes the sooner they dump Abbott the better the chances for the LNP. Of course thanks to the damage done already and questions to be answered the damage is going to stick to the successor. There will be no reset.

  6. confessions@2402


    Thanks. I bet Hockey and the govt wish he could take back that advice to prospective home owners in Sydney.


    hockey is used to wondering how he manages to get both feet into his mouth.

  7. Victoria @ 2365

    […discussing this latest imbroglio with my dad today. He reckons that this time Abbott is in deep doo doo. I responded with Abbott being the cat with nine lives…]

    Tell your dear dad from me, Abbott has used up all ten of them.

  8. [2403


    And did you pass muster???]

    Went on to post-graduate studies and am still acquiring new understandings 🙂

  9. Looks like Abbott might finally have jumped the shark as I suggested. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It’s only one poll.

  10. briefly – and just who the heck would replace Captain Chaos? Truffles? An overblown lightweight if there ever was one, and hated by his own party. Mesma/Asbestos Julie? A Thatcher wannabe dud. Devious Morriscum? A more thoroughly unlikable person I’ve not heard of, not to mention that he’s a happy clapper.

    Maybe the Liberals will upset our expectations and put Potato Head in. Wouldn’t that be fun.

  11. I understand Ipsos has only done federal polling since mid-2014, but could anyone tell me if it has shown a TPP of 53/47 to Labor during this time?

    I seem to remember an Ipsos 52/48 in the same week in February that Newspoll and Essential showed 55/45 and Morgan had 56/44 based on the 2013 election and 57/43 for respondant allocated preferences.

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