BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

Only slight movement on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, but it’s enough to put Labor back into majority government territory on the seat projection.

Later than usual on this one because the only pollster to report this week, Essential Research, moved its schedule back a day because of the public holiday. Essential’s voting intention numbers, which you can see detailed below, are characteristically stable, and the movements in the leadership ratings are almost perfectly on trend. As such, the only movement to report is a 0.3% shift to Labor on two-party preferred. However, this has had more impact on the seat projection than you might have thought, since several states are currently on the precipice of one result or another. Labor is accordingly up a seat in Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania, returning it to majority government territory.


• The aforesaid Essential Research poll showed Labor leading 52-48 for the fifth successive week. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (steady), 40% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 1% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, providing yet another improvement for Tony Abbott with approval up three to 39% and disapproval down four to 50%, while Bill Shorten was respectively steady on 32% and up four to 45%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister was 38-33, up from 35-32 a month ago.

• The poll also found remarkably strong support for revoking citizenship on grounds of terrorism, although this is clearly a case where question design has a lot to do with the response that is elicited. The headline findings of 81% approval and 9% disapproval in the case of dual nationals, and 73% approval and 13% disapproval in the case of sole nationals, presupposed that the suspect was guilty as charged. A follow-up question allowed respondents to choose between a court of law and a government minister in making the determination, with 54% favouring the former and 24% favouring the latter.

• The Mercury had a Tasmanian state ReachTEL poll on the weekend, which I didn’t write up because it was barely a week since the EMRS poll. It was a strong result for the Hodgman government, putting the Liberals on 48.5%, Labor on 29.9% and the Greens on 15.8%, compared with March 2014 election results of 51.2%, 27.3% and 13.8%. ReachTEL’s result helpfully features breakdowns by electorate. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a big sample of 2646.

Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that former NSW Premier Morris Iemma has “told Labor Party players in south-west Sydney that he will contest preselection for Barton”, and that “his name is also in the mix for the neighbouring seat of Banks”. Both seats were lost by Labor at the 2013 federal election, and there were suggestions Iemma might run in Barton as early as 2011. Others named as contenders for Barton are Rockdale mayor Shane O’Brien, Electrical Trades Union organiser Mark Buttigieg and Hurstville councillor Brent Thomas. Thomas is also named as a possible starter in Banks, together with Jason Yat-Sen Li, a high-profile figure in the Chinese community who ran for Labor in Bennelong in 2013 and as the lead Senate candidate of the Unity party in 1998.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,419 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

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  1. Maybe give it another week then the polls might reach 55-45

    all so the child leader could have some play time by baiting the left, I think the child leader has missed its afternoon nap and needs its nappy changed.

  2. State breakdowns coming

    @GhostWhoVotes: #Ipsos Poll NSW Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (-7) ALP 50 (+7) #auspol

  3. I saw fear in Abbott’s eyes today.

    The embarrassed blushing of the cheeks has appeared on his face many times before, but never with so much clarity.

    Standing in front of so many in the press, lying once more, with the pure knowledge that this time, he was fooling nobody, and all before him knew the pathological liar was at it again.

    Is it possible this man finally felt a sense of shame?

    He remains a human being after all, and must be capable of such an emotion.

    But the game is up and he knows it.

    In the end, people like Abbott always go to far and he knows he has been caught out.

    The only thing left for a sociapath, is to plead for another chance whilst imparting blame on all those around him.

    This time, it will not succeed.

    This time, the man is fucked.

  4. mexicanbeemer @ 2346 – given the billions they’re spending to hire private contractors to run the camps on Manus and Nauru, to build boats in Vietnam, to buy orange lifeboats, to bribe (lol) impoverished nations like Cambodia to take refugees (54 million for 4 refugees!), to have the Navy on constant patrol, and now to bribe smugglers, it’s more like:

    “pay the smugglers, explode the waste.”

  5. I think the punters were happy to give the Libs a fair bit of rope after the RGR saga, some promises broken, sum cutbacks, but they blew it with the budget.
    In a similar vein they are happy that the boats are ‘stopped’ or at least there is no longer footage on the 6pm news.
    But paying them (or accusations there of) to make the problem go away show us for mugs.
    People want the problem to go away but not pay the people smugglers. Apart from the rusted on this will go down well, and I don’t think this poll show the impact of the boats yet.

  6. BlurbUllage

    I was discussing this latest imbroglio with my dad today. He reckons that this time Abbott is in deep doo doo. I responded with Abbott being the cat with nine lives, and I will believe it when I see it!!

  7. victoria@1873

    My memory has been somewhat jolted. I do remember when it was revealed fhat Abbott had refinanced his mortgage to the tune of $700,000. It was really for a payout of some sort

    Well, thanks to Freya Newman we know he didn’t need that loan to pay his daughter’s university fees…

  8. [He remains a human being after all, and must be capable of such an emotion.]

    Not if he has narcissistic personality disorder, or psychopathy, or both.

  9. It’s only one poll, but I was really starting to worry why the obvious, crude attempts to play the terrorist and stop the boats cards were not being seen through by enough people.

    This poll provides some reassurance that the Government that is patently the worst in the lifetime of anyone alive in Australia today is finally being seen for what it is. I always had an expectation that when an election is called people would stop giving this Clown Circus the benefit of the doubt, but could not stop having a nagging worry that people would respond to the extraordinarily crude manipulation. There is hope yet.

    I can only repeat my view that, whatever else happens, Tony Abbott aka Captain Chaos will not be PM after the next election. Liberals cannot win with him. Whether they can win without him is another question. They should not, but in politics timing is everything.

  10. [ GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m3 minutes ago
    #Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Abbott 41 (-3) Shorten 42 (+3) #auspol ]

    Oh dear. Poor ESJ. Abbott behind on the vitally important and significant the PPM metric. 🙁

    Apologies to Kevin B. 🙂

  11. Roger I have already my position on the very clear. People just don’t read what I say much of the time.

    But to repeat if it is true it is shameful and blight on Australia.

  12. [Oh dear. Poor ESJ. Abbott behind on the vitally important and significant the PPM metric]

    Wasn’t Stutchbury suggesting that this poll would show that Abbott is ahead of Shorten as preferred PM?

  13. [You just know that’ll mean newspoll will be 51-49 or 50-50]

    Indeed, but you would hope that the narrowing that has happened since Feb might be turning back. It’s certainly not that this malignant government has done anything to deserve increasing support. Hopefully the cabinet leakage has started focusing a few minds on just what a rotten to the core rabble this pack of ratbags is and how they must be turfed asap.

    A word of warning though is that the NSW correction does look a little over (perhaps). Although Hockey’s stupidity would logically bite most in Sydney so that could explain part of such a big correction.

  14. [2280

    Thanks for this. I particularly like the observation that learning is accumulating at an accelerating rate. This is certainly true. As it accumulates it is also becoming more diffused and is both producing and consuming more resources.

    The line of reasoning is consistent with other a priori observations we can make, including in particular that learning is obviously immanent within the cosmos; and the learning that we produce is axiomatically one process by which the cosmos is learning about itself.

  15. [ Wasn’t Stutchbury suggesting that this poll would show that Abbott is ahead of Shorten as preferred PM? ]

    As he is such a remarkably persistent turd polisher i consider his utterances entertainment not information.

  16. Was wondering who out of abbott, dutton and hockey would cop the blame. Fairfax editorial is giving them all airtime

  17. If Essential is 52/48, that will do me.

    To be leading on TPP after all the Govt has tried in the last few weeks is a miracle.

  18. Charlie Edwards

    Firstly, you asked me how I responded to the specific questions you asked, which is what I did.


    [I’m not sure arriving in Indonesia does settle the issue as it presupposes the problem belongs only to Indonesia rather than being a regional problem which I think it really is.]

    It is a regional problem and it needs to be dealt with regionally. You weren’t talking about that. You were asking what refugees facing persecution were meant to do.

    The answer is to seek safety. Once they’re in Indonesia (or a number of countries they’ve journeyed through along the way), they’ve done that. If they then look to come further, they’re into country shopping, not seeking safety.

    If we’re going to have a meaningful regional solution (i) refugees are going to have to be processed in UNHCR camps nearer to the point of departure and (ii) they will have no guarantee that they will end up in Australia.

    (i) is an option available to refugees now. Those coming by boat chose not to take it, for a myriad of reasons (some of them very good). There is no guarantee that setting up another refugee camp will make them any more likely to take that option.

    (ii) Again, the evidence is that this isn’t acceptable to some asylum seekers.

    [Regarding the issue of numbers, your answer still suggests that the issue for many is the means of arrival, not the status of the person as refugee. ]

    Er, no. That was your suggestion. I simply pointed out your numbers were wrong.

    [ The Xmas Island sinking was indeed terrible but no worse than the invisible deaths of these people from persecution in their own country. It is merely a case of them being more visible at Xmas Island. The location should not matter.]

    The Christmas Island deaths were arguably preventable. The people involved had already left their own countries and thus escaped the persecution there.

    You seem to be arguing that if we close off the boat option that that will somehow prevent people from fleeing their own countries. That’s absurd.

  19. victoria @ 2354 – rogue poll, or they’ll completely ignore the headline results and say “LIBERAL AND LABOR NECK AND NECK (IN NSW).”

  20. [2369

    It’s only one poll, but I was really starting to worry why the obvious, crude attempts to play the terrorist and stop the boats cards were not being seen through by enough people.

    This poll provides some reassurance that the Government that is patently the worst in the lifetime of anyone alive in Australia today is finally being seen for what it is.]

    We need more data, but there have got to be several things contributing to this…Hockey’s incredible “get a real job” insults; Abbott’s full-despot act on citizenship; the split and leaks in the Cabinet; anxiety over the economy; Abbott going criminally feral in relation to human trafficking…when will the LNP dump him!!!!

  21. Briefly 2288

    Thought you would have liked to have talked to him he was very approachable but like me very tired, went to sleep teading the EU missive. Asked me what I did as I seemed up to date said I was retired accountant who loved Greece. I wished him all the best at the end of fight and hoped what he was hoping for came true. Grabbed my hand and said “so do I” with a wishful smile

  22. JD

    I recall Ipsos was heavily reported even by Murdoch papers, even though Newspoll came out at same time. Of course, Ipsos was 50/50 and Newspoll was 53/47

  23. Imacca at 2382

    I would agree in normal circumstances, but I though he might have some inside information given that he is in the fairfax stable. He probably did get a tip-off but interpreted it arse-up if his general pronouncements are anything to go by.

  24. mexicanbeemer @ 2395 – what more does ISIS want? The Government is already funnelling them money via the people smugglers 😉

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