BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

Only slight movement on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, but it’s enough to put Labor back into majority government territory on the seat projection.

Later than usual on this one because the only pollster to report this week, Essential Research, moved its schedule back a day because of the public holiday. Essential’s voting intention numbers, which you can see detailed below, are characteristically stable, and the movements in the leadership ratings are almost perfectly on trend. As such, the only movement to report is a 0.3% shift to Labor on two-party preferred. However, this has had more impact on the seat projection than you might have thought, since several states are currently on the precipice of one result or another. Labor is accordingly up a seat in Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania, returning it to majority government territory.

Also:

• The aforesaid Essential Research poll showed Labor leading 52-48 for the fifth successive week. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (steady), 40% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 1% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, providing yet another improvement for Tony Abbott with approval up three to 39% and disapproval down four to 50%, while Bill Shorten was respectively steady on 32% and up four to 45%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister was 38-33, up from 35-32 a month ago.

• The poll also found remarkably strong support for revoking citizenship on grounds of terrorism, although this is clearly a case where question design has a lot to do with the response that is elicited. The headline findings of 81% approval and 9% disapproval in the case of dual nationals, and 73% approval and 13% disapproval in the case of sole nationals, presupposed that the suspect was guilty as charged. A follow-up question allowed respondents to choose between a court of law and a government minister in making the determination, with 54% favouring the former and 24% favouring the latter.

• The Mercury had a Tasmanian state ReachTEL poll on the weekend, which I didn’t write up because it was barely a week since the EMRS poll. It was a strong result for the Hodgman government, putting the Liberals on 48.5%, Labor on 29.9% and the Greens on 15.8%, compared with March 2014 election results of 51.2%, 27.3% and 13.8%. ReachTEL’s result helpfully features breakdowns by electorate. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a big sample of 2646.

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that former NSW Premier Morris Iemma has “told Labor Party players in south-west Sydney that he will contest preselection for Barton”, and that “his name is also in the mix for the neighbouring seat of Banks”. Both seats were lost by Labor at the 2013 federal election, and there were suggestions Iemma might run in Barton as early as 2011. Others named as contenders for Barton are Rockdale mayor Shane O’Brien, Electrical Trades Union organiser Mark Buttigieg and Hurstville councillor Brent Thomas. Thomas is also named as a possible starter in Banks, together with Jason Yat-Sen Li, a high-profile figure in the Chinese community who ran for Labor in Bennelong in 2013 and as the lead Senate candidate of the Unity party in 1998.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,419 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

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  3. [ Boats in the media = good for Lib polling. ]

    In normal circumstances. This issue of payments though is a pretty cut and dried one.

    Did the payments happen? If yes, then its criminal, and people need to be prosecuted.

    The language that Abbott has used so far can be taken to mean that the payments happened, (creative solutions, by hook or by crook, ……) or that he would condone such criminal behavior if it had happened.

    He has serious questions to answer. It should be made known if it has happened, when, where, who handed over the money, AND on who’s authority.

    If it hasn’t then simply say so. Actually, its Tony so better get him to write it down.

  4. A failure to recognise a conflict of interest has turned out to be a very expensive exercise for Knox City Council.

    The person responsible for laying of charges against the owner of dangerous dogs decided to appoint herself to the body which determined the dogs should be destroyed. The High Court intervened last week in Isbester v Knox City Council to set aside the body’s decision.

    I am not sure why you would not leave to the courts the decision of destruction if charges had been laid.

  5. Charlie Edwards

    [Better they die from persecution in there own country often with no possibility of queues than to die risking their lives at sea eh?]

    Well, once they’ve reached a country like Indonesia that issue’s settled.

    [Better we worry about the few thousand coming by boats than the tens of thousands that simply fly here & claim refugee status eh?]

    There are not tens of thousands who fly here and then claim refugee status.

    In 2008, for example, there were nearly 5000. Although the number of boat arrivals wasn’t anywhere near that number in 2008, in 2011 and ’12 there were far more that number arriving by boat.

  7. Saying that you care about (preventing) deaths at sea is one thing.

    Telling people who propose different solutions that they want people to die at sea is something else entirely.

  9. [ The language that Abbott has used so far can be taken to mean that the payments happened, (creative solutions, by hook or by crook, ……) or that he would condone such criminal behavior if it had happened. ]

    But no questions about what the *Limits* are or if there are any.

    By hook or by crook !

    Does this mean they be shot etc if they won’t turn back ?

    Isn’t it a responsibility of the MSM to question this ?

    We know the speaker in HoR will not allow it – *its hypothetical*

    The media also control if any Labor questioning even makes the media.

    Plus I think its pretty accurate that most/ too many voters just don’t want to know about it or just don’t give a stuff.

  11. ABC headline on the high seas payoff:

    [Tony Abbott continues to dodge questions on alleged boat turn-back payment to people smugglers]

    PvO is right: if the foreign and immigration ministers can say outright no payments were made, why can’t the PM? This is so weird.

  15. I think that it is interesting that the Daily Rupert seems to be giving ‘cash for turnbacks’ minimal or no attention. They apparently don’t think that it would play well with the ‘Alf Garnett’ demographic (as distinct from those genuinely concerned by drownings, for example).

  16. 2283

    If the priority is/was saving lives then the response to the Christmas Island drownings would be/would have been to repeal the fines that airlines get if they let people fly here without a visa or onward ticket.

    That was not what happened. The opposite direction was taken therefore the priority was not saving lives.

  17. Shellbell,

    Apparently Knox City Council spent $400,000+ fighting that action. I wonder what their ratepayers might think of that.

  18. 2315

    If a lot of boats with refugees come looking for money to go back, the money will be seen to have made the problem worse in virtually all demographics.

  22. For what it’s worth, I believe that Abbott’s refusal to deny that money was paid to people smugglers to turn back, especially after the Immigration and Foreign Ministers did so, means that it almost certainly did happen.

  24. It happened. Abbott’s just giving his henchman and minions time to explain it away, cover it up or both. And, if worse comes to worse, he will pet Dutton take the fall for it.

  25. This report from November last year

    [Mr Vargas said people were still getting on boats and Australia’s policies would not stop them.

    “It’s not going to solve the problem,” he said.

    “It may, in the short term, show some boats being stopped but these boats continue to leave from various places in the region and outside of the region.

    “This policy, a unilateral policy from any government is not going to stop it.”

    He said 100 asylum seeker boats had departed towards Australia since the start of the year.]

  32. Steve777 @ 2322 – Indeed. An important question for the Government to answer (if the allegations are true) is whether this was a another “Captain’s call” by Abbott without the knowledge of Dutton or Bishop. If that’s the case, then surely Abbott’s career is over.

  35. GhostWhoVotes
    GhostWhoVotes – ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-3) ALP 53 (+3) #auspol
    4:01 AM – 14 Jun 2015
    33 RETWEETS7 FAVORITES

  44. I wonder on what basis Bishop and Dutton were able to answer “No”.
    Did they have access to information that Tony has not got and what possible information from what source could that be?
    Or was it just knee jerk ‘No’ based on no information at all?

    I do wish our journos would use follow up questions.

    Journo “Did we pay smugglers to return refugees?”
    Bishop/Dutton “No”
    Journo “How do you know?”
    Bishop/Dutton “…….”

  46. If or when the PM finally comes clean, the next question has too be, just how much have we paid these criminals.

    Stop the boats, stop the waste

    Should read

    Pay the smugglers, continue the waste

  50. Zoomster at 2305

    Thanks for the response. I’m not sure arriving in Indonesia does settle the issue as it presupposes the problem belongs only to Indonesia rather than being a regional problem which I think it really is.
    Regarding the issue of numbers, your answer still suggests that the issue for many is the means of arrival, not the status of the person as refugee. The Xmas Island sinking was indeed terrible but no worse than the invisible deaths of these people from persecution in their own country. It is merely a case of them being more visible at Xmas Island. The location should not matter. Perhaps the deaths at sea forced us to see what we could otherwise ignore if it happened elsewhere & perhaps our response is not so much to ensure this doesn’t happen again but rather not happen near us thereby forcing us to confront our own fears.

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