BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

Only slight movement on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, but it’s enough to put Labor back into majority government territory on the seat projection.

Later than usual on this one because the only pollster to report this week, Essential Research, moved its schedule back a day because of the public holiday. Essential’s voting intention numbers, which you can see detailed below, are characteristically stable, and the movements in the leadership ratings are almost perfectly on trend. As such, the only movement to report is a 0.3% shift to Labor on two-party preferred. However, this has had more impact on the seat projection than you might have thought, since several states are currently on the precipice of one result or another. Labor is accordingly up a seat in Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania, returning it to majority government territory.

Also:

• The aforesaid Essential Research poll showed Labor leading 52-48 for the fifth successive week. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (steady), 40% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 1% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, providing yet another improvement for Tony Abbott with approval up three to 39% and disapproval down four to 50%, while Bill Shorten was respectively steady on 32% and up four to 45%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister was 38-33, up from 35-32 a month ago.

• The poll also found remarkably strong support for revoking citizenship on grounds of terrorism, although this is clearly a case where question design has a lot to do with the response that is elicited. The headline findings of 81% approval and 9% disapproval in the case of dual nationals, and 73% approval and 13% disapproval in the case of sole nationals, presupposed that the suspect was guilty as charged. A follow-up question allowed respondents to choose between a court of law and a government minister in making the determination, with 54% favouring the former and 24% favouring the latter.

• The Mercury had a Tasmanian state ReachTEL poll on the weekend, which I didn’t write up because it was barely a week since the EMRS poll. It was a strong result for the Hodgman government, putting the Liberals on 48.5%, Labor on 29.9% and the Greens on 15.8%, compared with March 2014 election results of 51.2%, 27.3% and 13.8%. ReachTEL’s result helpfully features breakdowns by electorate. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a big sample of 2646.

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that former NSW Premier Morris Iemma has “told Labor Party players in south-west Sydney that he will contest preselection for Barton”, and that “his name is also in the mix for the neighbouring seat of Banks”. Both seats were lost by Labor at the 2013 federal election, and there were suggestions Iemma might run in Barton as early as 2011. Others named as contenders for Barton are Rockdale mayor Shane O’Brien, Electrical Trades Union organiser Mark Buttigieg and Hurstville councillor Brent Thomas. Thomas is also named as a possible starter in Banks, together with Jason Yat-Sen Li, a high-profile figure in the Chinese community who ran for Labor in Bennelong in 2013 and as the lead Senate candidate of the Unity party in 1998.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,419 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

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  3. Well there’s the dirt of on Shorten . The company paid the union fees . FMD. Back in the day I never saw the money I paid for union fees. The company deducted them for me. Shock bloody horror , that is what the company paying union membership is .

    The workers may have been dudded by this arrangement is the other part of the allegation. Well 8% pay increase in 2 years doesn’t sound like it.

  9. The Commonwealth AG welcomes the Justice Gordon to the High Court

    [Your Honour was born and raised in Western Australia and graduated from the University of Western Australia with degrees in Law and Jurisprudence. You began your legal career in Perth in 1987 at the leading commercial law firm then known as Robinson Cox, now Clayton Utz. I am told that at one stage during your Honour’s time at Robinson Cox you were an Articled Clerk to my colleague, the Foreign Minister, the honourable Julie Bishop, who remembers you as a young lawyer who, by dint of your obvious high intelligence and impressive work ethic, was already marked out for great things.]

  10. guytaur

    Goodness me. i remember my own father having his union fees deducted from his pay. I am talking about the 70’s!

  12. victoria

    Yep. Nothing corrupt. Over reach on part of LNP. Its no wonder Shorten appeared calm cool and collected in his presser

  14. @shellbell/59

    Mates job then?

    “the Foreign Minister, the honourable Julie Bishop, who remembers you as a young lawyer who”

  16. victoria

    The questions SMH is asking

    [Q. Were Winslow workers in 2005 (when the company paid for their dues) aware that they were AWU members?

    Q. What did Winslow get in return for paying the AWU?

    Q. Was it common practice for the AWU to have companies pay for the membership dues of workers when Mr Shorten was state secretary?

    Q. Is it appropriate for companies to pay the union dues of members?]

  17. Union fees being deducted from wages are nothing new, unusual, or sinister.

    Getting pretty desperate there Whiney-Pyney.

  19. victoria

    As per @53 He was also full of …. there are no allegations or findings but Shorten has “questions to answer” . Yeah answers for questions that don’t exist. That really steamed me up . Pure sliming from Prissy. The LNP Scum did the same thing to JG.

  21. victoria

    A good letter writer should ask Fairfax what evidence that any of that is corrupt?

    No corruption no case that simple. No questions to ask let alone be answered.

  22. poroti

    How unsurprisement that Abbott and Pyne were silent on KJackson. Now she has a long list of questions to bloody answer!!

  24. Compact Crank

    [Strangely silent on Preferred PM around here – unless Abbott is trailing.]

    Probably because it’s more interesting when the PM is trailing (something that doesn’t happen that often) than when an OL is.

    [2PP the only story in town?]

    The 2PP is literally what decides the outcome of a race (well in individual seats anyway), so it shouldn’t be considered that strange that it gets a lot of the focus.

    Even with those two points aside, who cares if some posters here are focusing on elements on the polls they like? It’s no different than what you’re attempting to do with that post. It doesn’t change reality either way, so what’s the point in whining about it?

  25. My union fees were always automatically deducted from my pay by my employer, forwarded to the union and shown on my group certificate / payment summary at the end of the tax year. That was always pretty standard for large employers.

  27. zoidlord

    Abbott on Jones is always a larf. Manly man Tones goes for “yes sir no sir anything you say sir” when he speaks with that prick.

  28. Good evening all,

    Bill Shorten has always put the welfare of workers first.

    Fairfax is just grabbing at straws and once again covering itself in glory, not.

    What I find interesting is the Fairfax story is built around the misinterpretation of documents provided to the Royal Commission.

    Now how would fairfax have sourced the documents if they were in the possession of the RC?

    That is the question Fairfax needs to answer, not demanding answers to irrelevant questions from Bill Shorten.

    Get the AFP off its arse and check out who gave those documents to Fairfax. That would be a story.

    Cheers.

  32. [Radio shock jock Ray Hadley and Immigration Minister Peter Dutton have been accused of “sexist claptrap” after playing a song on his show labelling Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young as the “Dumbest Politician in Australia”.]
    There is a very long list before Sarah would make it.

  33. Joe must have been listening to The Dark Side of the Moon but didn’t pick up on the sarcasm. Shine on you crazy diamond, have a cigar, you’re gonna go far!

    Money, get away
    Get a good job with good pay and you’re okay
    Money, it’s a gas
    Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash
    New car, caviar, four star daydream
    Think I’ll buy me a football team

    Money, get back
    I’m all right Jack keep your hands off of my stack
    Money, it’s a hit
    Don’t give me that do goody good bullshit
    I’m in the high-fidelity first class traveling set
    And I think I need a Lear jet

    Money, it’s a crime
    Share it fairly but don’t take a slice of my pie
    Money, so they say
    Is the root of all evil today
    But if you ask for a raise it’s no surprise
    That they’re giving none away

    By the way has anyone asked the idiots if getting a good job with good pay leads to housing affordability in resource boom towns?

  34. poroti

    [Radio shock jock Ray Hadley and Immigration Minister Peter Dutton have been accused of “sexist claptrap” after playing a song on his show labelling Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young as the “Dumbest Politician in Australia”.]

    I would say that Dutton is the dumbest Politician in Australia and also the one with the weakest face.

    What a class act they are!

  40. Sorry, have I got this right? The allegations against Shorten are to do with union members having their dues automatically deducted from their pay? Is that it?
    If Shorten’s in trouble for that then the ATO sure has some explaining to do.

  41. I have had a connection with a Green Army team. There is a supervisor and six youngsters. Five of them are uni graduates from a disparate range of pursuits and one is a school leaver. They are a great bunch of people who have come together. But I despair at what is waiting for them after their stint is finished.

  45. I was under the impression that everyone’s union membership was automatically paid via their pay or at the yearly BBQ

  47. BSA Bob

    Part 2 of the sliming of Shorten is that somehow the “deal” meant the workers were ripped off . As I said earlier an 8% pay increase over two years does not sound like they were.

  50. BK at 82

    I couldn’t think of a better person to decide who is the dumbest politician in Australia than the ultimate potato head.

    It’s a shame they did not discuss the most immoral and useless shock jock in Australia.

    It would be the quinella discussing themselves without even knowing it.

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