Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research, have made as little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate as one poll did last week, although Labor does at least make a gain on the seat projection in New South Wales. Things are a little more interesting on the leadership ratings, thanks to a new set of numbers from Newspoll (which has only one more poll to go in its present form, not two as I intimated in the previous post). This finds Tony Abbott overtaking Bill Shorten on net approval to add to the preferred prime minister lead he opened up a few weeks ago, and which he continues to consolidate. The improvement in Abbott’s standing since the nadir of the Prince Philip knighthood has been quite remarkable, although his net rating of minus 11.8% is by no means anything to write home about.
So, according the the Lenore Taylor article, housing affordability was a problem a month or so ago, when Joe set up a taskforce to investigate solutions, but now Labor’s raised the issue, it’s not a problem anymore.
If Labor can solve problems like this from Opposition, think of what they’d do in government!
vic Premier was just inteviewed on Sports radio now. He was asked about Hockey’s comments re housing. this is going to be one of those quotes not easily forgotten. You really gotta laugh
Re Bobalot @ 3345: It’s astonishing that people are talking about Shorten’s popularity…
The biggest statistical indicator is 2PP, which Labor has been leading for over a year. This is unprecedented for a first term government.
I don’t think that it’s astonishing. The popularity ratings support the narrative that most of the media want to push, while the 2PP hasn’t for 18 months. Preferred PM ratings in particular seem to be skewed in favour of incumbency.
I agree with TPOF. The govt wanted the RC into unions to deliver a smoking gun on the ALP so expect them to ride this for all it’s worth, aided by our media too obsessed with gotchas.
Interesting to compare the reporting of Glen Stevens remarks at a function in Brisbane yesterday.
Here he disagrees with Joe; Sydney IS a housing bubble:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-10/rba-governor-stevens-says-weak-economy-leaves-rate-cuts-open/6535718
Here he disagrees with govenment decision making on infrastructure
http://www.afr.com/news/economy/monetary-policy/rbas-glenn-stevens-lashes-out-at-political-failures-on-infrastructure-20150610-ghfmbg?stb=twt
Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Who is the clown now, Joe? Adieu.
victoria..
I “get it”…
It’s ‘smear-mongering’ 101 ..it’s what the TURC was set up to do.
Throw mud ..some will inevitably stick = mission accomplished.
fess
Of couse Abbott has spent millions for a gotcha. I have yet to hear him say anything substantial on the child abuse in catholic church. Surely this is far more important than the union bullshit
markjs
Yes. The same thing they did with Gillard. Hopefully team Labor have a way of dealing with this crap
Whew! I thought there was a problem with Joe Hockey renting from himself, but luckily there isn’t.
In the car this morning I happened to switch to 2GB, and luckily for me, Alan Jones cleared the matter up.
It is “ludicrous”, says Jones, for anyone to complain about politicians’ Living Away From Home allowances, considering the “paltry pittance” they are paid as a base salary. For a man of Joe Hockey’s depth and breadth of talent a mere $378,000-odd is a “scandalous underpayment”.
So WHAT if he receives an additional $290 a night to stay in his own home? Why, that’s only $2,030 a week, tax free (about the equivalent of an extra $160,000 a year in gross salary after taxes). You couldn’t rent a dog box in Canberra for that!
You couldn’t stay in a hotel room for that kind of money (commensurate with your rank of course, which would entitle Joe to the Presidential Suite, at least).
And what’s the point of renting a dog box anyway if you’re not there half the year, or more? Think of all that empty space, wasted when the Treasurer would be off rescuing the economy from the devastation that Labor and their profligate spending wreaked on the nation.
As far as the matter of renting from himself, Joe has really no choice. A hotel’s too expensive, and a dog box is too demeaning. $2,060 a week is just about right for your average hard-working Treasurer, no more no less.
I yearned to ask Alan why Joe needs additional income to the tune of more than most ordinary workers earn as their total salary – with which they have to pay for educating their kids, food, petrol for their car, utilities, travel to and from work, holidays, and then find some more to pay their own mortgages on $1,000,000 average homes – just to rent from himself, but I didn’t have my mobile with me to phone in.
I know it would have been pintless anyway. Alan would have the answer to that curly one. So I just sat back and concentrated on the grid lock I was caught in knowing that when Alan does my thinking for me, I don’t have to.
Dole bludgers and pensioners everywhere, huddled over their single bar heaters, eating their toast and baked beans for breakfast while they listen to Alan, would be glad to know that it’s all been thoroughly worked out why it’s fine for Joe to take in one night more than they do in a week, so he can pay off his mortgage by renting from himself.
I feel proud to be an Australian, knowing that we have towering intellects like Alan Jones, asking the hard questions of our politicians, and coming up with such simpl, easily digestible answers, so that I can preserve my wits about me as I look for a better job, a good job, preferably in the private sector, so that if I ever want to negative gear a second house, I too will walk tall alongside Joe on the Golden Path to national prosperity that only he can show me.
I’m ashamed I ever doubted him. As Alan put it so well, to doubt Joe Hockey is, simply, ludicrous.
BB
Alan jones can say whatever he pleases. Hockey has managed to wake up the politically disengaged here in Melbourne. They think he is a goose and dont think much more of Abbott.
[PM Abbott on wind farms – not only are they visually awful, but they make a lot of noise]
And unlike coal, they are BAAAD for humanity.
Also, wind farms, could destroy all life on Earth.
Wot a complete farkwit this man is.
I must admit that there are times, and the last few weeks is one such, when I really shakes me head in amazement at just how really really stupid, arrogant and nasty this mob are.
And the polls are only 52:48.
Why?
I suspect that’s rhetorical.
lizzie@3331
Importantly – abbott also has a $7- $800,000 debt on his house – most of that debt incurred to support his lifestyle.
hockey much better financially positioned to walk away from politics – or be booted.
They both have very generous super though.
[3355
Socrates
Interesting to compare the reporting of Glen Stevens remarks at a function in Brisbane yesterday.
Here he disagrees with Joe; Sydney IS a housing bubble:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-10/rba-governor-stevens-says-weak-economy-leaves-rate-cuts-open/6535718%5D
Will punters slow the buying? Will banks slow the lending? Will they start to apply more conservative loan-value criteria? If so, the bubble will start to deflate.
It’s interesting that ANZ have called for an end to -ve gearing and WBC have called for reform of SMSF tax exemptions. Obliquely, they’re saying that action in the housing market has become speculatively driven.
Fell asleep on the lounge last night and woke up this morning to ABC TV Breakfast as they lamented that Bill Shorten’s shenanigans at the AWU umpteen years ago were not “Teh Story” this week, while Joe Hockey renting his own property for $2,030 a week was.
It was Group Think in action. There they sat around the coffee table with their lap tops in front of them actually showing us how Group Think works.
What they do is get together and decide what line they are going to run. They go through all the angles and assign various side tasks to various journalists to write up as “questions that need to be answered”.
It doesn’t really matter what the answers are. As long as ominous “questions” are asked. The beautiful thing about it is that they only have to read each other’s stories to get the facts. No messy interviews, no “investigative reporting” required. They simply riff off what’s already been published, put a spin on it and trot it out as ground-shaking journalism.
Anyway, Tony Abbott suffers from mortgage stress too. So that must mean he’s a man of the people. A couple of the journos have mortgages, as well. I guess that qualifies them as champions of The Little Guy (if you can call Joe Hockey “little”).
I guess they didn’t give any coverage of the CEO of Jeep, who is in court this week for embezzling not a few bucks on a coffee like Craig Thomson, or not for arranging for Union dues to be paid by the employer ike it is alleged Bill Shorten (sort-of, maybe, perhaps) did. This guy took $30,000,000… that’s million. Not even worth a comment from the Champions of the 4th Estate.
And that’s before we even get to the story that has enraged everyone: Joe Hockey renting his own house. How dare Everyone be interested in a story that’s not about what someone said at the Royal Commission? When the journos have explicitly told them they should be?
I tell you what… journalists today are very poorly served by their readers and listeners. The punters wouldn’t know a good story if it picked them up, turned them upside down and shook another $290 out of their pockets so Joe could pay his mortgage off some more.
I’ve heard Alan Jones. I’ve listened to the Group thinkers on ABC TV, but I still have a negging suspicion that Joe’s rorting it, rather beautifully while castigating others of being double-dipping, fraudulent leaners, who must discard their senses of entitlement.
Does this make me a bad person?
Maybe I could voluntarily give up my Australian citizenship in compensation for my sins?
[The pair have also jointly owned a cattle farm in Malanda in far north Queensland since 2003. They sold off 40 hectares of the property in 2014 and Hockey has put the remainder up for sale at an asking price of $1.5 million.]
I’m sure it’s legal, but it’s a profit-chasing arrangement by city-dwellers, not a farmer’s solution, IMO.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-joe-hockeys-impressive-housing-portfolio-20150610-ghkqzd.html
Briefly,
The regulator APRA has initiated a number of changes to Mortgage Lending for Home Buyers and Investors.
Whether it is too much or too little is up to your judgement. However,the intention is clearly to slow price growth in the Hosing Markets in Sydney (and to a lesser extent Melbourne) in the short term and slowly deflate the growing housing bubble rather than allow it to pop.
1. APRA have been recently setting expectations with all Approved Deposit Institutions (“ADIs”) as part of their Sound Residential Mortgage Lending Practice focus. These expectations aim to ensure sustainable growth in the home loan market, particularly the Investor segment.
2. The main impact to customers will be through Loan serviceability levels and Investor loans expectations.
3. Changes to Serviceability levels are expected to see most lenders increase the serviceability rates they currently have in place. Some panel lender have done this recently and further changes are expected by June 30.
4. Lenders have started tightening investment lending to comply with expectations set by APRA.
5. Changes do not impact existing home loan customers and it is unlikely customers with an existing application approved formally but not yet settled, are impacted by the changes. New applications will be impacted.
6. Brokers should not misrepresent investor loans as owner occupied.
[markjs
Posted Thursday, June 11, 2015 at 8:25 am
Fran Kelly just nailed the Shorten/AWU issue..
Wtte: it may not be illegal ..but it’s the “optics”
..whatever that means..]
Looks like Fran, sans Michelle, has updated her slogan.
Previously she used ‘its not a good look’.
It was one of the many reasons this household gave RN Brekky the flick.
I’m disgusted at the govt sending babies to Nauru.
[PM Abbott on wind farms – not only are they visually awful, but they make a lot of noise]
Wind farms will remain visually awful, noisy and dangerous until the minute that companies like AGL and Origin take them over in their push to “go green” (currently being rolled out).
Then they will be towers of the government’s fight back against Global Warming, which – while not real – will commence for sure in a few years, just as soon as Big Energy has bludgeoned the price of alternative technology down enough to buy-up nearly bankrupt smaller alternative energy startups.
Until then, we should keep on having inquiries into Wind Farms until they come up with the right answer on just how hideous and destructive they are. Anyone can see that as they fly over the hills outside of Canberra, or drive along the shores of Lake George on their way to a cosy night in their own home, and a Cuban cigar, paid for by youse and me.
dave
[Importantly – abbott also has a $7- $800,000 debt on his house – most of that debt incurred to support his lifestyle.]
It’s no wonder Abbott is desperate to hang on to his position. But I really don’t understand how, after so long in Parliament, he needs to take out such a high mortgage. ‘Support his lifestyle?’ He doesn’t seem like a big spender to me, and from what I’ve read, he’s tight with money. A mystery.
[3367
Greensborough Growler]
I’ve read about APRA’s guidance. Is it working?
Why is this a front page story at the SMH?
[Christian couple vow to divorce if same-sex marriage is legalised
A Canberra couple have vowed to get a divorce, ending their “sacred” 10-year union, if Australia allows same-sex couples to legally marry.
Nick Jensen and his wife Sarah believe widening the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples threatens the sacred nature of the union and leaves the door open to polygamy.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/christian-couple-vow-to-divorce-if-samesex-marriage-is-legalised-20150610-ghl3o6.html ]
Apart from its triviality, I thought “What God hath joined together, let no man put apart”?
But it does highlight one issue: D_I_V_O_R_C_E is probably the greatest threat to their own strict idea of what marriage means than same sex weddings are.
So WTF are they on about?
A multiple choice question using federal seats rather than suburbs as it might be easier for non Sydney people to guess
If you sold a two bedroom unit in Toorak for the suburbs average and went to Sydney to buy a house, where would you be able to purchase?
A) North Sydney
B) Wentworth
C) Lindsay
D) Parramatta
[Importantly – abbott also has a $7- $800,000 debt on his house – most of that debt incurred to support his lifestyle.]
Actually, I doubt that’s true.
It’s been years since he took out that $700,000 mortgage, and by now, with extra contributions from his large salary (and Margie’s when she was working) should be substantially paid out.
I thought yesterday about Abbott’s mentioning his own mortgage, that it’s probably very small by now, and that he’s only keeping it so he can say,”I’ve got a mortgage too. I know your pain.”
Considering Tony has been in parliament since 1994, his polly super will be quite large, he should be able to live quite comfortably.
http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/treasurer-joe-hockey-is-selling-his-15-million-farm-20150610-ghkjee.html
Emily Power: The Treasurer is getting in before the bubble bursts, off-loading his hobby farm.
[Treasurer Joe Hockey has put his $1.5 million getaway in far north Queensland on the market and is hoping for a speedy sale.
Spread over 90 hectares and three titles, the farm in Malanda – south of Cairns – was quietly put on the market in mid-April with a listing that states that the “owners are looking for a quick sale”.]
[3368
fredex
It was one of the many reasons this household gave RN Brekky the flick.]
I’ve long since given up listening to opinionated broadcasters who make a crust telling their listeners or viewers what to think. None of them are half as clever, varied or insightful as they take themselves to be.
briefly,
The Banks are all responding in a “Is this high enough a jump, Sir?!” manner.
ING, for example have dropped their threshold LVR to 80% for investment properties.
Banks are also expected to raise their assessemnt rates to around 3% (Up from around 2%) above the prevailing interest rate over the next couple of weeks. For readers this means that say for a $400k loan where the actual interest rate is currently 4.5% and repayments will be around $2025 per month, the Bank assesses that loan as if it was 7.5% or aapproximately $2800. So to get the loan, the borrower needs to show they can pay $775 per month more than what they will be paying when they take the loan out!
Whether it impacts the market, can’t say aatm. But, unless
lizzie –
[ But I really don’t understand how, after so long in Parliament, he needs to take out such a high mortgage. ‘Support his lifestyle?’ He doesn’t seem like a big spender to me, and from what I’ve read, he’s tight with money. A mystery. ]
Some went on the girls education and supporting them etc, some of it appears to be residual housing loan debt and he may have run up ‘other’ debts and needed to consolidate them to get them under control.
Plus some suggestion in the media in the past at having some sort of “Unlawful dismissal” situation which may have needed to be ‘settled’.
The kouk wrote some general stuff a while ago –
[ Tony is a hard working Aussie, doing his best to provide for his family. He has a good job, but such is the nature of his work that his income is subject to unpredictable, sharp and sudden changes.
Tony’s much loved and wonderful children go to a private school and wow, those fees that he choses to pay are high. He used to have a moderate mortgage, especially given he was doing well with an income well over $200,000 per annum.
Then things on the income side turned sour.
Tony had a change in work status that resulted in his annual income dropping by around $90,000 – a big loss in anyone’s language.
How did Tony respond to this 40 per cent drop in income?
Well, rather than selling the house and moving into smaller, more affordable premises, or taking his children out of the private school system and saving tens of thousands of after tax dollars, Tony called up his friendly mortgage provider and refinanced his mortgage.
In other words, Tony took on a huge chunk of extra debt so that he could maintain his family’s lifestyle. No belt tightening, no attempt to live within his means, just more debt.
Tony was reported as saying when asked about the cut in his income and his craving for more debt, we are “soldiering on the best we can… what’s it called? Mortgage stress!” he quipped when referring to the fact that his level of debt was now many multiples of his income.
…Tony is an interesting chap because he has some strong views on how the government should run its finances. He reckons the current government is addicted to debt and that he’ll cut the level of debt if ever his dream of becoming Prime Minister comes true.
…Hang on Tony…. Didn’t you keep on spending and consuming when you had a change in household financial circumstances? And didn’t you cover this spending of yours by boosting your debt?
Tony also said, “we are determined to make sure government exercises the same kind of restraint over its spending which businesses and households have long understood.”
Huh? Restraint? Tony, you personally borrowed like a drunken sailor!
I’m confused.
Or is there some inconsistency with Tony – what I say and what I do are entirely different things]
http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/2400-a-true-story-about-a-man-named-tony
For the twitchers of PB, Bill Cooper died last month.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/obituaries/his-zoo-snakes-escaped–but-australias-greatest-bird-painter-flew-skyhigh-20150605-ghi10t.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_T._Cooper
GG
For one I would that those investors might start to be nervous in about 18 months as I suspect by then the RBA or at least the market will start talking about raising rates, also it potentially will put upward pressure on rents in some areas.
briefly,
That would be sage advice to BB. He hates the shock jocks views so much, he needs to listen to it every day to get his fix.
It’s a peculiarly NSW thing that whatever their jumped up right wing radio blatheres say is of dramatic interest and influence on the rest of the Australian polity.
It’s intersting that various attempts at shock jock radio in Melbourne have all come a cropper over the years in this neck of the woods.
Of course, we in Victoria have Andrew Bolt. But, I regularly don’t read his rubbish and if you ever buy the Herald Sun his opinions are usually well back in the paper (page 67 on the inside). So his influence is largely exaggerated by those who have a vested interest in saying he has influence.
Good motion from the ACTU COngress
[Congress calls on the Australian Government to:
Acknowledge its unlawful and unjust claim to a continental shelf boundary north of the median line between Australia and Timor Leste and adhere to the principles of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea impartially and fairly; and
Commence immediate negotiations to settle the eastern and western boundaries of the Timor Gap between Australia, Timor Leste and Indonesia.]
Come on ALP – put an end to this shit. Australia and Timor-Leste still have no settled maritime boundary. That’s a bullshit position for Australia to be defending.
mb,
Being nervous in 18 months? The time to be nervous is now!
Any one who says they know where the housing market will be in 18 months time has NFI.
[ It’s been years since he took out that $700,000 mortgage, and by now, with extra contributions from his large salary (and Margie’s when she was working) should be substantially paid out. ]
maybe – he may also have been on interest only on the loan between the howard government sacking and becoming LOTO or even PM.
His super would have been his ultimate fall back position back then.
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Thursday, June 11, 2015 at 9:41 am | PERMALINK
Why is this a front page story at the SMH?
Christian couple vow to divorce if same-sex marriage is legalised
A Canberra couple have vowed to get a divorce, ending their “sacred” 10-year union, if Australia allows same-sex couples to legally marry.]
According to news.com.au, they will stay together and presumably be “living in sin”. Crazy! What would Kevin Andrews say?
[Mr Jensen goes on to explain the divorce plan, where the pair will continue to live together, have more kids, and refer to each other as husband and wife, but will legally end their marriage because they believe “marriage is not a human invention”.]
GG
Yeah, they are different beasts, the RBA is unlikely to start raising interest rates for at least 18 months, I hold this view due to the state of the economy, I don’t see it changing much in the near term, and I agree with you that property prices are harder to far harder to read.
GG
Do you think there is a housing bubble in Sydney and parts of Melbourne?
3379
Greensborough Growler
And new lending at your esteemed establishment? Still rising?
I thought divorcing was a sin in the eyes of hardline Christians
Tones doing ‘death cult’ again over and over.
By the way that Toorak unit can buy you are house in Lindsay or suburbs such as Penrith, St Mary’s and Glenmore Park etc
Socrates@3332
I’ll still stand by this statement. In other places I’ve been like Singapore and Malaysia, low skill jobs like this are paid lowly because of the mindset of the people there. They rather replace that labour with cheap labourers from overseas. Accident rates are far higher though.
We pay more for them here because of the legislation plus how much employers are willing to pay them through negotiations with union. (Yes, it’s catch-22. They can’t hire more because they’re paid a lot, but they’re paid highly because they can’t hire more.)
Do you really think it’s that easy to teach someone to drive a train? From what I’m familiar with, there’s about a 6 month period where a trainee driver needs to be accompanied by supervisors, and another year or so where they are on sort of a probation.
I’ll give you that statement about Joe Hockey though.
briefly,
Brokers generally now do over 50% of all housing related loans. So, our market has grown at the expense of the Banks.
As you may have noticed housing prices in the major markets of Melbourne and Sydney have increased significantly. Therefore, the value of loans is increasing.
There has also been a significant reduction in the number of houses on the market at any one time (My estimate is about 20% compared to 2 years ago). So, fewer properties and more bidders helps bid the prices up as well.
Combined these are making Broking a fairrly lucrative market atm.
I’m with Alan – I think we need about twice as many politicians (at every level) they need to be paid about twice as much and the very generous retirement packages should be returned (too much dead wood on either side that pretty much have exceeded their ability getting there in the first place but the country would benefit greatly by bribing them out of the parliament.
Then get rid of all the stupid perks they abuse. But that is no excuse and should should not be a distraction from stopping the abuse by Joe and the others of an accommodation allowance.
Alan Jones and the PM collude in furthering this asinine, baseless, discredited fairy tale about the health effects wind power.
I put it to you, Sirs, that you dont believe a word of this guff either, and are both paid whores for coal.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/awful-and-noisy-tony-abbott-slams-wind-farms-during-interview-with-alan-jones-20150611-ghl7m0
dave
Thanks for that insight on Tony.
How the other half lives (and apparently gets scammed by their associates):
[Scotch student costs classmates thousands
ONE of Victoria’s most elite private schools has been rocked by the implosion of a year 12 student’s financial scheme — costing his classmates an estimated $185,000.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/?from=networklinks
If you can’t manage your mortgage you can’t manage the country?