BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

Tony Abbott overtakes Bill Shorten on net approval in an otherwise uninteresting week in the world of poll aggregation.

Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research, have made as little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate as one poll did last week, although Labor does at least make a gain on the seat projection in New South Wales. Things are a little more interesting on the leadership ratings, thanks to a new set of numbers from Newspoll (which has only one more poll to go in its present form, not two as I intimated in the previous post). This finds Tony Abbott overtaking Bill Shorten on net approval to add to the preferred prime minister lead he opened up a few weeks ago, and which he continues to consolidate. The improvement in Abbott’s standing since the nadir of the Prince Philip knighthood has been quite remarkable, although his net rating of minus 11.8% is by no means anything to write home about.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,572 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

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  1. vic,

    You are right to use the word “parts”. The Housing Market is not a homogenous one size fits all beast.

    As you know, I do loans for people moving to the North of you suburbs like Mernda, South Morang and Doreen. I know from numerous attempts to re-finance prospeccts that prices in these areas have not moved much in the last three years.

    Despite all the woe, you can still purchase land and build a house for $350-400k in Mernda. You can buy a reasonalbe quality 4 bedroom home at Doreen for $450k.

    So, as always, it depends where you are looking.

  2. Citizen (3348):

    It’s time to start a charity appeal to help Abbott’s daughters find a home:

    THE prime minister said one of his three daughters has been able to enter the market in Canberra, yet the other two were finding it “daunting”.

    Well, if I still owned a rental property I wouldn’t be taking on any of his daughters as a prospective tenant after the “My dad’s the Prime Minister” shenanigans young Francis pulled last time she signed a lease…

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/06/17/my-dad%E2%80%99s-the-prime-minister-did-frances-abbott-get-off-too-lightly/

  3. GG

    Yes i do know that those suburbs you mention are stable price wise. In fact established areas such as Lalor and Epping are too. Apart from those areas, everywhere else is nuts price wise

  4. How many wind turbines has Tony stood beside to hear their noise? What does he know about design or landscape?

    He so obviously just agrees with everything that Alan Jones says.

  5. I’ve just read the verbatim interview TA & AJ. Tony talks as if the sole purpose of reducing the RET was to get rid of wind farms.

    [Andrew Bray, the Australian Wind Alliance national coordinator, said wind farms kept farm land viable in regional Australia.

    “Wind farms present once in a lifetime economic opportunities for windy parts of regional Australia,” he said.

    “Continual government interference in renewable energy comes at a cost. It deprives regional communities of economic opportunities they should be enjoying now and holds Australia back from becoming the renewable energy powerhouse we should be.”]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/awful-and-noisy-tony-abbott-slams-wind-farms-during-interview-with-alan-jones-20150611-ghl7m0

  6. When Labor get back in government a good thing as part of climate change preparations.

    Legislation to force coal companies to give employees paid time to do courses to prepare for post coal jobs.

    Lets not wait until the sackings happen this time.

  7. victoria at 3360

    My wife has been out & about in the city & she agrees that Hockey’s comments are on everybody’s lips, & its certainly not positive.

  8. “@latikambourke: OL Bill Shorten – I’ve got zero time, zero tolerance for any form of corruption in the workplace.”

  9. “@latikambourke: Bill Shorten says he always expected ‘some political smear’ and ‘unfairness’ from ‘Tony Abbott’s royal commission into trade unions.’”

  10. Briefly at 3378

    That is why I enjoy PBers, at least I’m hearing from real people, not politicians, owned coomentators or shockjocks with barrows to push.
    PBers are much more in-tune with what people are actually thinking.

  11. “@SabraLane: “Make my day” @billshortenmp says in issuing a challenge to a town hall debate with @TonyAbbottMHR on their records for Australian workers.”

  12. Maybe Labor should start a Royal Commission into Renewable Energy when it gets back in Federaly. It would provide a chance to dig into links between the Abbott Government and the fossil fuel industry, especially coal. Surely there are rocks that could be lifted there.

  13. [I just heard on radio that Hockey and his wife own four properties.]

    And that’s the interesting issue about negative gearing. Their mortgage stress on their investments is helped by a 50% contribution from the taxman to their interest bill over rental income (as well as paying 50% of land rates, land tax, water rates, insurance and maintenance costs).

    For me, with my investment properties, the taxman offers at best 30% for the same costs. I say, at best, because when my taxable income goes down a bracket the taxman provides an even smaller percentage.

    Now, I’m not complaining about the reduced kick from the taxman for one moment. But there is something bizarre about the tax system that is so regressive that the more you earn, the bigger percentage of your investment costs are paid by the tax man.

    When Hockey says he cares about the mum and dad investors who negatively gear, the only Mum and Dad he cares about are himself and his merchant banker wife Melissa. They pretend they want to protect my small negative gearing help from the tax office. But what he really cares about is the big load of taxpayer’s money HE and Mrs Hockey get.

  14. Guytaur

    I’ve read a number of studies into wind farms & not one has ever reported any proof whatsoever of evidence of wind noise. Abbotts claims are not only false, they are outright lies & he should be called out on it.

  15. [Legislation to force coal companies to give employees paid time to do courses to prepare for post coal jobs.]

    Does not sound like a valid exercise of Cth power

  16. CE

    Not only that. Abbott has admitted he designed the review into RET togged a desired outcome.

    Surely thats abuse of power that can be investigated?

  17. [Abbotts claims are not only false, they are outright lies & he should be called out on it.]

    That’s quite unreasonable Charlie. You are obviously prejudiced on the issue because you are listening to scientists and reading health research. It’s really important to hear both sides of the argument. For example, former rugby coach and Arts graduate, now broadcaster, Alan Jones, has an opinion and deserves to be listened too because you need to hear what people who know nothing about science or health have to say.

  18. I wonder if Hockey’s wife shows the revenue that she receives from the taxpayer via Hockey as a rental income in her tax returns?

  19. The AG will now doubt direct his most junior staff member to clear space in an obscure bottom draw for the HRC report authored by Wilson

  20. TPOF

    Hockey is getting a run for his money on Sydney radio for his call to people to get a high paying job as if you can just pick that up at the drop of a hat.

    He has made an absolute fool of himself. Sometimes you need to know when to just shut up.

  21. [Surely thats abuse of power that can be investigated?]

    The strategy of this government is to carry out so many abuses of power in so many different areas to so many people that there is no big one to coalesce anger around.

    Hockey made the mistake of saying something so incredibly stupid that everybody gets how dumb it was – even the Liberal spinmeisters who are trying to recast it to pretend he said something else.

    But generally, the breadth of vileness of this government has been its greatest protection.

  22. [Sometimes you need to know when to just shut up.]

    We should be grateful Joe has not learned that lesson, and doesn’t look like doing so anytime soon.

  23. South Australia has a huge windfarm situated on the range of hills between Lochiel and Port Pirie. They look like majestic moving sculptures ..and are stunningly beautiful.

    I was surprised at how lovely they look, as I previously thought the first few wind turbines I had seen scattered around the countryside detracted from the natural beauty.

    I now believe that sensitive placement of these towers is important in integrating them into our landscape. They can appear to be alien ‘blots on the landscape’ if not placed appropriately.

    My particular favourite location is offshore, just on the horizon ..absolutely stunning!!

  24. Tony can’t see what all this housing Whingeing is all about

    [TONY Abbott is pointing to the real estate success of his daughter to show it’s not impossible for young people to buy a home while paying off university debt.
    The Prime Minister said one of his daughters had bought in Canberra, but conceded his other two were finding it harder to get into the market.
    Louise Abbott works in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and appears to have benefited from a Canberra housing market wilting after widespread public service job cuts.]

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/tony-abbott-says-his-daughter-proves-it-is-possible-for-young-people-to-get-on-the-property-ladder/story-fnu2pwk8-1227392710384

  25. Is this true?

    The Reject PM
    52m52 minutes ago
    The Reject PM ‏@geeksrulz
    Heard @FergusonNews on radio saying Gillard reluctant to do #KillingSeason. Condition was no #GetGillard ABC journos @leighsales @CUhlmann

  26. [The strategy of this government is to carry out so many abuses of power in so many different areas to so many people that there is no big one to coalesce anger around.

    {snip}

    But generally, the breadth of vileness of this government has been its greatest protection.]

    It is a deliberate strategy. Just keep piling the shit on to try denying your opponents a chance to focus and regroup. A shock and awe blitzkrieg.

  27. TPOF at 3436

    Yes, its amazing to think that a not-insignificant proportion of the population will believe Abbott over scientists, extraordinary when you think about it, wonders will never cease will they.
    What a blight on our collective intellect.

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