Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Unremarkable new poll results from Newspoll and Morgan, along with news on preselection and redistribution and such.

James J in comments relates that the latest Newspoll result for The Australian, which I believe will be the third last poll we get from Newspoll-as-we-know-it, has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 41%, with Labor steady on 37% and the Greens up one to 13%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down a point to 38% and his disapproval up one to 53%, while Bill Shorten continues to haemorrhage at 32% approval (down three) and 50% disapproval (up four). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 41-37, up from 41-40. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1169.

Also:

• The latest fortnightly Morgan result records a slight increase in Labor’s lead after an unusually weak result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s primary vote down half a point to 41%, Labor’s up a point and a half to 37%, the Greens up half to 13% and Palmer United down among Katter’s Australian Party in statistically insignficant territory. This results in a slight shift in the two-party lead from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48, although a stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences this time causes a bigger move on that measure, from 51-49 to 53-47.

• Media outlets have reported on two privately conducted ReachTEL polls over the past week, both providing encouraging news for the Coalition. The Guardian reported on an ACTU-commissioned poll of marginal seats which found “a primary vote swing of between 2% and 4% against the sitting Coalition MP, but in most cases voters had switched to the Greens or the undecided column rather than to Labor”. I take that to suggest an overall two-party swing to Labor of around 2%. The poll was conducted a fortnight ago, and targeted one seat in each state: Page, Corangamite, Leichhardt, Swan, Hindmarsh and Braddon. Further results in the article relate an expectation that the government will make further cuts to health and education. The Australian reported that polling of four of Tasmania’s five seats, the exception being Denison, found Labor losing support to the Greens while the Coalition held firm, and also found about 40% agreeing they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported reinstatement of wood waste in the Renewable Energy Target, compared with around 14% for less likely. The polls were conducted on May 21 for the Australian Forest Products Association.

• Jared Owens of The Australian reports Sophie Mirabella will face two rivals for Liberal preselection in her bid to recover her old seat of Indi, which she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. One is Kevin Ekendahl, owner of an auditing and compliance business in Wodonga and candidate for Melbourne Ports in 2010 and 2013, who has “campaigned for same-sex marriage”, which Mirabella opposes. The other is Andrew Walpole, who owns property in the electorate but works as an anaesthetist at the Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital in Melbourne. Speaking of Melbourne-based, an Australian Federal Police deputy commissioner told Senate estimates this week that it had referred to the public prosecutor four alleged cases of fraudulent involvement from the electorate, out of 28 cases referred to it. This follows claims last year that a substantial number of Cathy McGowan had enrolled in the electorate despite living in Melbourne, most of them being university students who grew up in the electorate.

• Special Minister of State Michael Ronaldson has ordered a Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into “claims of intimidation outside election polling booths and the handing out of misleading leaflets”.

• The AEC published public submissions last week as part of its process for the federal redistribution of New South Wales, which will reduce the state’s seat share from 48 to 47. I put the submissions for the two major parties through the wringer in this post, where you can find interactive maps of the proposals along with my determinations of notional seat margins. I’ve also belatedly attached such a map to my similar post for the Western Australian redistribution from mid-April. Draft boundaries for both redistributions are scheduled for the third quarter of this year, with final determinations to be made early next year. There is also a redistribution of the two Australian Capital Territory seats in train, which no one seems terribly excited about.

• I had paywalled pieces in Crikey last week concerning the electoral dimensions of same-sex marriage and contradictory Queensland state poll results.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The only change in the weekly reading from Essential Research is a one point increase in the Labor primary vote to 40%, leaving the Coalition 41%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 1%, with Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage finds 59% saying it should be allowed and 30% saying it shouldn’t, respectively steady and up two since February. However, the difference is narrower on likelihood of same-sex marriage influencing vote choice, with 34% saying more likely and 22% less likely. Also feaatured are questions on leadership attributes, which as usual record collective movements in line with recent polling on personal approval. That means better ratings for Tony Abbott than in February, with the biggest movements on “out of touch with ordinary people” (down seven to 65%), “erratic” (down six to 54%) and “a capable leader” (up six to 40%). Bill Shorten’s movements might be thought surprisingly modest given his recent polling form – he’s down four points on “a capable leader” to 43%, but also on “narrow-minded”, to 34%.

As it does from time to time, Essential has also sought to gauge the accuracy of respondents’ understanding a public policy issue, in this case the proportion of the federal budget devoted to foreign aid, and found only 13% offering the correct answer of less than 1%. This gives a bit of edge to its finding that 44% think the government spends too much on foreign aid, compared with 16% for too little and 21% for just right. Respondents were also asked to rate the importance of giving foreign aid to various countries, with impoverished neighbours rating highest (66% for Pacific Island countries, 65% for Papua New Guinea) and, I cannot help but notice, Islamic countries rating lowest (Indonesia 39%, Middle East countries 26%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,378 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. ESJ at 6

    It would seem to me that if Tony Abbott, the most unpopular politician to be voted PM can make it, It stands to reason that Bill Shorten can be PM.
    After all Abbott is not liked even yet, he is simply a little less disliked than he was a few months ago.

  3. Rex

    boring to have to do this, but preferred whoever rankings are very little indication of anything.

    Long before I became really interested in polling, I had observed that a LOTO who, the day before the election, trailed in ‘preferred’ rankings suddenly jumped ahead once they’d won.

    A more recent example – Campbell Newman led as preferred Premier over Anna P all the way to the election —

    http://polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/image_uploads/150124%20QLD%20Election%20-%20Final.pdf

    as did Napthine over Andrews —

    http://polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/image_uploads/141124%20VIC%20Election%20-%20Final.pdf

    Now, just to show how predictable that was — I typed those statements BEFORE I went to the Newspoll tables, because I knew that that would be so.

  4. Good Morning

    I agree with Matt’s assessment at the top of this page. I add its good to see the latest Liberals speaking out on SSM.

    ACT’s Senator Zed on the doors this morning reminds us of the significance of Josh Frydenberg’s comments on QandA last night.

    A minister speaking out against current Liberal policy. The pressure inside the Liberal party is more than we see.

  10. Latest Sportsbet odds have Labor on $2.40 and Coalition on $1.52 to win the next Federal election, implying a probability of a Coalition win of about 61%. That feels about right.

  11. Business expectations have dropped sharply despite business friendly concessions in last month’s Federal Budget.
    According to Dun & Bradstreet’s Business Expectations Survey, business executives have returned a weak third quarter outlook on their expected sales, profits, investments and employment levels, taking the Business Expectations Index down to 13.4 points from 20.7 points in the previous quarter and 19.5 points at the same time last year.

    http://dnb.com.au/article-bex-budget-fails-to-fire-business%20.html#.VWzpg4bXerV

  13. Regarding the government’s process for procuring submarines, I find it simply unbelievable that no formal written response was requested from Defence nor that an appropriate tender process for a $50 billion purchase is being undertaken. This is simply scandalous & is an indictment of the msm that they are not all over this.

  14. Sad news about Mother Russia dying.

    She did help prove one thing though… Socialism doesn’t work, Victoria almost went bankrupt

  15. fess,

    Seselja is absolutely right.

    The convention is that Ministers support Government policy because they are members of the Government.

    They don’t have the privilege of being able to express alternative views to that of the Government of the day. This is why the Cabinet leaks are devastating to the Government because they reveal disunity within to government to public arena.

    Ministers have the right and in fact the duty to argue their cases within Cabinet. However, once the Decision is reached then they must support that position regardless of their personal views.

    It’s a simple concept that goes to the heart of proper Governance in this country.

  16. “@political_alert: Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young will hold a press conference at noon to discuss the asylum seeker boat turned back by the Navy #auspol”

  17. Not so long ago heard Dennis Jensen (likely to lose endorsement at the next election?) wriggling like a worm on a hook on RN breakfast about the Coalition’s tactics with SSM today.

    That he does not want change is no surprise, but there were two laughs – one was when he claimed (under questioning) that “marriage does not kill people” – even MB laughed at this – and the second was when he described Shorten, yesterday, for carrying out a “stunt”.

    Given that his leader, coloured jackets and all, is King of the Stunts, is yet one more example of how conservatives are so much better at rank hypocrisy than Labor.

  18. [It’s not hard to lose perspective up there on the verandah of Kirribilli House. The tonsured lawn rolls down to the silvered waters of the most fabulous harbour in the world. As evening comes and the butler floats by bearing canapés by candlelight, you wouldn’t envy Jay Gatsby at his most extravagant.

    And so, apparently, the high thin air of Kirribilli has quite got to its latest occupant, Tony Abbott, the Absentee Laird of The Lodge.

    “As someone who, along with the bank, owns a house in Sydney, I do hope our housing prices are increasing,” he declared blithely on Monday.
    . . .
    Mr Abbott, it happens, once imagined he knew their pain, or something remotely like it. Having lost the fat pay cheque of a minister when Kevin Rudd removed government from the Coalition in 2007, Mr Abbott publicly bemoaned the misfortune of suffering mortgage stress. In early April 2008 he took out a $710,000 mortgage against his home on Sydney’s northern beaches to help meet the family bills and the private school fees.

    Things have looked up since, of course, what with the PM’s salary at around $500,000 a year, the rarified view from Kirribilli House and the knowledge that these days, $710,000 would barely buy a broken-down shed in Sydney.

    Oh, and soon, when the nation has finally finished spending more than $6 million renovating The Lodge in Canberra, the Absentee Laird will have that at his disposal, too.

    It has acres of carefully tended gardens in which he might wander, Gatsby-like, perspective lost, hoping the price of the family home bubbles up for that unfortunate time when, cruelly stripped of access to Kirribilli House and the Lodge, he has to deal with reality again.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/kirribilli-house-lifestyle-blinds-tony-abbott-to-the-cost-of-australias-housing-bubble-20150601-ghekoj.html

  24. gt

    [ACT’s Senator Zed on the doors this morning reminds us of the]

    Zed is rated as Australia’s most lazy politician. Getting him up before day light and moved to the Parliament House forecourt is something.

  25. [“Oh, and soon, when the nation has finally finished spending more than $6 million renovating The Lodge in Canberra, the Absentee Laird will have that at his disposal, too.”]

    That’d be the renovations started under Gillard would it not?

    Also didn’t Gillard waste many tens of thousands of dollars in renting a new mansion while the current mansion was getting a make over but after being tossed out of power Abbott was happy to stay at a $200 a week lodging at the Australian Federal Police apartments?

  26. GG:

    I was referring more to Zed’s remark about the party having a longstanding position on SSM. As with our marriage laws, the current status of the partyroom position is not a logical argument against change.

  27. Are there no limits to the depths of offence that some will not go to here?

    In the response to the Mother Russia comment – if demise were to come to Tony Abbott – is it thus okay to say something like, well there goes the Pope’s Boy to his just rewards?

    That’t the trouble with those who deliberate seek to belittle, they goad others to jump into the same kind of cesspit in which they live themselves.

  29. fess,

    And, Zed specifically mentioned Ministers. So, your analysis misses his point.

    Others are quite entitled to take their policy initiatives to the Party Room to try and effect change.

  31. GG

    Yes the issue is wedging the Liberals when Ministers are publicly going against party policies.

    Thats the significance I see.

  32. GG:

    Yes, that is true. But still, I reckon Zed wouldn’t have been so antsy if Frydenberg had gone against party policy on something dear to Zed’s heart.

  33. [“TBA

    Wrong. Abbott moved into Kirribili house March 2014”]

    I wasn’t talking about Kirribili, read the comment again.

    You said he spent $6 Mill renovating the lodge… that started under Gillard.

    Please tell the truth.

  34. Tricot:

    TBA’s comments are designed to shock and draw a reaction.

    The best reaction you can give it is to simply scroll past and ignore. That’s what I do.

  39. victoria

    TBA has real worries to hide. That sinking of an AS boat after being turned away by the Navy.

    A) The boats are still coming

    B) Australia is breaking treaty obligations about safety and as a result the High Court could rule turn backs against the law.

  40. Of course Gillard would never stay at Kiribilli.. would she?

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/being-julia-gillard-the-prime-minister-opens-up/story-e6frf039-1226406138677

    THE lounge room at Kirribilli House is exactly as you might expect; plush armchairs, thick carpet, hues of cream and beige. But although the rooms appear formal at first glance, there are some distinct clues that the woman who lives here has her own way of doing things.

    An exercise ball lies in the hallway. There’s a half-drunk cup of tea in the study (with what look suspiciously like biscuit crumbs beside the saucer) and the open cupboard by the bathroom is home to a multitude of different coloured jackets, coats and cardigans.

    When Prime Minister Julia Gillard enters the room, she gives me a warm smile and a firm handshake before inviting me to sit next to her by the fire. “There’s no central heating downstairs,” she says. “It’s beautiful in the summer, but a bit chilly at this time of year.”

    ————

    The Kiribilli thing needs to be put to bed.

    All Prime Ministers stay there. If you want to make a point, be consistant.

  42. TBA

    Julia never complained about mortgage stress.

    [Having lost the fat pay cheque of a minister when Kevin Rudd removed government from the Coalition in 2007, Mr Abbott publicly bemoaned the misfortune of suffering mortgage stress. In early April 2008 he took out a $710,000 mortgage against his home on Sydney’s northern beaches to help meet the family bills and the private school fees.]

  43. “And now to our newsroom where the latest Newspoll shows the Labor party still holds a comfortable lead over the government though PM Tony Abbott has pulled slightly ahead of the LOTO Bill Shorten as PPM.

    The government has made up next to no ground since the last Newspoll and there has been no discernible bounce in this poll for the government after the recent Federal budget.

    Meanwhile in another poll, by Morgan this time, a similar result has emerged with Labor leading the Coalition 53-47.

    The PM Tony Abbott is under more intense leadership pressure from within his party as he seems to be unable to recover the party’s election winning lead.”

    Meanwhile in the real world….from the newsroom…….deafening silence about the current poll.

    And from some here……….”Labor must get rid of Bill Shorten as he has failed………..”

  44. Our respected PB colleague has the very best response to offensive posters on this blog..

    ..utter silence..

    ..respect, BK 🙂

  47. [Latest Sportsbet odds have Labor on $2.40 and Coalition on $1.52 to win the next Federal election, implying a probability of a Coalition win of about 61%. That feels about right.]

    Labor is clearly ahead (tpp), if by a small amount. The liberal vote is being propped up by the east coast economy, and in particular by very low interest rates (how much further can they drop?) and sydney/melbourne house prices. If the economy improves the tpp will improve for the LNP, if the economy goes the other way we will head straight back to 55:45 for Labor territory.

    It seems pretty clear Tony wants the decks clean to go early if it looks like things are tanking.

    Tony is a well know quantity, Bill is almost always a sedative.

    Bill needs to do promise and do the things people believe are necessary:

    GST increase to 12.5% (without the states and without it being bipartisan – ie show actual leadership)

    CGT discount gone completely. Indexation to kick in for assets held more than 5 years. Death roll over gone.

    Superannuation – tax benefits capped, both in terms of concessional contributions and income.

    Superannuation – mortgage offset accounts, phased in and capped to appease the super industry (a carrot).

    Joint superannuation / income tax for couples, read grogs article about this benefiting high income people and to some extent I agree with that analysis (obviously if you have two people earning less than the tax free threshold joining them together they still are going to pay not tax). It is both a carrot and a fairness principal the system treats people as couples when it suits it but not otherwise, it should be consistent, either a couple are two individuals or they are a couple. If you have two individuals earning $100k each or a couple with $0 / $200k I just don’t get why the tax take should be massively bigger for the second couple. Perhaps to reduce the cost you could have the couples rate schedule scale at less than 2x the individual rate schedule from 2 x average weekly earnings up.

    Recommit to a real NBN but be honest about the difficulties and timing issues.

    Recommit to Gonksi and NDIS, but with careful phase-ins.

    Some equity adjustments – eg include the primary residence value above 2x median house price in asset tests.

    The more I think about it the more I’m disinclined to touch loss transfers (the negative gearing part of negative gearing). It would be particularly regressive to only quarantine PAYG earnings and siloing each enterprise of an individual would be perhaps too much pain for the gain (and drive to corporatisation which would then again simply effectively quarantine PAYG earnings).

    I’m not entirely convinced by Mr Keatings arguments for retaining dividend imputation, and think perhaps the need for the measure has faded over the last 30 years (blasphemy I know but…) and that person last night on q&a claimed noone was even talking about it. If I was shorten and questioned on this I would promise no change in the next term, but if I won establish a through cost / benefit review of it during the next term.

    I am sure there is more, but I’m pretty sure Australians would respond to a big target strategy if the big target is things they already believe should happen. It isn’t even really leadership, but it would be more leadership than Abbott / Hockey and those assistant economic liars in the team.

  49. [I don’t really care where Abbott lives as long as he stays away from Perth.]

    Hear Hear. If he could give Colin a nice job and tidy room on the east coast that would be good too. Perhaps Colin could be his boot cleaner because Colin would always put Abbott’s boots before the good people of Western Australia.

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